New here? Read up on our past Sports Cards issues to get the most from this post.
May 10th, 2022 | ± 4 minutes
CONTENTS:
- An update on Sports Cards performance for the year & last week
- All you need to know about any new IPOs & sports cards at auction
- The scoop on undervalued, mispriced and hidden gems
Let’s go!
Table of Contents
Sports Cards in 2022
Firstly, as a reminder, here’s my view on sports cards sectors for 2022.
Bullish on:
-All soccer, especially vintage
-Vintage basketball
-Vintage football
Bearish on:
-Hockey, except for ultra blue-chip
-Golf
-Tennis
-Modern basketball
Sports cards continue to go sideways through 2022 on fractional markets. According to our analysis, the category is trading at around a 5% discount to fair market value, but that covers up a ton of volatility and market inefficiency. The standard deviation for price relative to fair market value is more than 50%.
The high-end continues to slide in CardLadder’s monthly index along with tier one sports basketball and football, while baseball ticks up now that the season is underway.
The platform has added a ton of racing cards to its index lately, so it’ll be a month or two before that index stabilizes.
Strength from Pokémon is notable.
Last Week in Sports Cards
Fractional secondary markets
All the tier ones are down, and there was a number of blue-chip assets trading well below market value. Some examples:
- Lebron James 2004 UD Extra Exquisite BGS 9.5 on Rally (Alts pick)
- Honus Wagner T206 SGC AUTH on Rally (Alts pick)
- Pele 1958 Quigol PSA 8 on Rally (Alts pick)
- Cristiano Ronaldo 2014 Panini Prizm World Cup Auto BGS 9 on Collectable (This one isn’t an Alts pick, but I hate Ronaldo, so there’s some bias there)
None of the above is investment advice, so DYOR.
This Week
Assets dropping on marketplaces
Just two sports cards dropping this week on fractional marketplaces:
1911 C55 PSA 7 (PWCC- E) George Vezina
- Market Cap: $118,150
- Inferred Value: $75k
- Date: 5/11/22 on Collectable
- Our View: [INSIDERS ONLY]
‘09 Bowman Sterling Gold Refractor Auto BGS 9.5 Mike Trout
- Market Cap: $67,400
- Inferred Value: $22,000
- Date: 5/13 on Collectable
- Our View: [INSIDERS ONLY]
Auctions
Goldin’s got another one of their sort-of-sports-but-also-comics-etc auctions going on over the next fortnight. There’s a lot of interesting stuff in the non-sports categories, but here are the sports cards lots I’m watching:
There are 23 F1 lots, and the offerings are getting more and more diverse as the consignment managers go out of their way to hoover up everything racing-related. An unopened case of 2020 Chrome F1 is the pick of the litter for me. Watch for it to break $40k to give us a sign F1 has still got some momentum behind it.
Not to be outdone, there are 44 soccer (football) lots, headlined by a BGS 9.5 graded Ronaldo rookie. It’s already at $41k, just 4k off CardLadder’s valuation, so we could be due for a soccer cards rebound.
The obligatory Michael Jordan rookie is up to $228k with a lot of time to go. The most recent sale was $240k, and the centering on this one isn’t great. Again, that could indicate a bottom if this smashes through recent sales.
PWCC’s monthly premier auction is matching Goldin’s MJ performance nearly point for point with a top 15% eye appeal version of the card, sitting at $220k with ten days to go.
They’ve also released another Steph Curry 2009 NT RPA /99 card. This one has seen a lot of action lately, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it top $700k.
Remember the BGS 9.5 Ronaldo rookie at Goldin? PWCC’s got a PSA 10 version, and that’s going to be a huge data point for the tippy top of the soccer market. The most recent sale was for $319k in autumn 2021, and Rally has a copy trading at $186k right now. It’s at $80k at the time of writing.
That’s all for this week. Make sure to check out our Discord, where issue previews and in-depth valuations get kicked around.
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