New here? Read up on our past Sports Cards issues to get the most from this post.
May 10th, 2022 | ± 4 minutes
- An update on Sports Cards performance for the year & last week
- All you need to know about any new IPOs & sports cards at auction
- The scoop on undervalued, mispriced and hidden gems
Sports Cards in 2022
Firstly, as a reminder, here’s my view on sports cards sectors for 2022.
-All soccer, especially vintage
-Hockey, except for ultra blue-chip
Sports cards continue to go sideways through 2022 on fractional markets. According to our analysis, the category is trading at around a 5% discount to fair market value, but that covers up a ton of volatility and market inefficiency. The standard deviation for price relative to fair market value is more than 50%.
The high-end continues to slide in CardLadder’s monthly index along with tier one sports basketball and football, while baseball ticks up now that the season is underway.
The platform has added a ton of racing cards to its index lately, so it’ll be a month or two before that index stabilizes.
Strength from Pokémon is notable.
Last Week in Sports Cards
Fractional secondary markets
All the tier ones are down, and there was a number of blue-chip assets trading well below market value. Some examples:
- Lebron James 2004 UD Extra Exquisite BGS 9.5 on Rally (Alts pick)
- Honus Wagner T206 SGC AUTH on Rally (Alts pick)
- Pele 1958 Quigol PSA 8 on Rally (Alts pick)
- Cristiano Ronaldo 2014 Panini Prizm World Cup Auto BGS 9 on Collectable (This one isn’t an Alts pick, but I hate Ronaldo, so there’s some bias there)
None of the above is investment advice, so DYOR.
Assets dropping on marketplaces
Just two sports cards dropping this week on fractional marketplaces:
Goldin’s got another one of their sort-of-sports-but-also-comics-etc auctions going on over the next fortnight. There’s a lot of interesting stuff in the non-sports categories, but here are the sports cards lots I’m watching:
There are 23 F1 lots, and the offerings are getting more and more diverse as the consignment managers go out of their way to hoover up everything racing-related. An unopened case of 2020 Chrome F1 is the pick of the litter for me. Watch for it to break $40k to give us a sign F1 has still got some momentum behind it.
Not to be outdone, there are 44 soccer (football) lots, headlined by a BGS 9.5 graded Ronaldo rookie. It’s already at $41k, just 4k off CardLadder’s valuation, so we could be due for a soccer cards rebound.
The obligatory Michael Jordan rookie is up to $228k with a lot of time to go. The most recent sale was $240k, and the centering on this one isn’t great. Again, that could indicate a bottom if this smashes through recent sales.
PWCC’s monthly premier auction is matching Goldin’s MJ performance nearly point for point with a top 15% eye appeal version of the card, sitting at $220k with ten days to go.
They’ve also released another Steph Curry 2009 NT RPA /99 card. This one has seen a lot of action lately, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it top $700k.
Remember the BGS 9.5 Ronaldo rookie at Goldin? PWCC’s got a PSA 10 version, and that’s going to be a huge data point for the tippy top of the soccer market. The most recent sale was for $319k in autumn 2021, and Rally has a copy trading at $186k right now. It’s at $80k at the time of writing.
That’s all for this week. Make sure to check out our Discord, where issue previews and in-depth valuations get kicked around.