1911 C55 PSA 7 (PWCC- E) George Vezina

New here? Read up on our past Sports Cards issues to get the most from this post.

May 10th, 2022 | ± 4 minutes

CONTENTS:

  • An update on Sports Cards performance for the year & last week
  • All you need to know about any new IPOs & sports cards at auction
  • The scoop on undervalued, mispriced and hidden gems

Let’s go!

Sports Cards in 2022

Firstly, as a reminder, here’s my view on sports cards sectors for 2022.

Bullish on:

-All soccer, especially vintage
-Vintage basketball
-Vintage football

Bearish on:

-Hockey, except for ultra blue-chip
-Golf
-Tennis
-Modern basketball

Sports cards continue to go sideways through 2022 on fractional markets. According to our analysis, the category is trading at around a 5% discount to fair market value, but that covers up a ton of volatility and market inefficiency. The standard deviation for price relative to fair market value is more than 50%.

All stats come from assets trading on secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

The high-end continues to slide in CardLadder’s monthly index along with tier one sports basketball and football, while baseball ticks up now that the season is underway.

What a mess…

The platform has added a ton of racing cards to its index lately, so it’ll be a month or two before that index stabilizes.

Strength from Pokémon is notable.

Last Week in Sports Cards

Fractional secondary markets

All the tier ones are down, and there was a number of blue-chip assets trading well below market value. Some examples:

  • Lebron James 2004 UD Extra Exquisite BGS 9.5 on Rally (Alts pick)

One of the highest-graded examples of the 5 limited-edition cards produced.
  • Honus Wagner T206 SGC AUTH on Rally (Alts pick)
  • Pele 1958 Quigol PSA 8 on Rally (Alts pick)
  • Cristiano Ronaldo 2014 Panini Prizm World Cup Auto BGS 9 on Collectable (This one isn’t an Alts pick, but I hate Ronaldo, so there’s some bias there)

All stats come from assets trading on the secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

None of the above is investment advice, so DYOR.

This Week

Assets dropping on marketplaces

Just two sports cards dropping this week on fractional marketplaces:

1911 C55 PSA 7 (PWCC- E) George Vezina

That’s a handsome man.

‘09 Bowman Sterling Gold Refractor Auto BGS 9.5 Mike Trout

Sorry, not the other Bowman auto from 2009.

Auctions

Goldin’s got another one of their sort-of-sports-but-also-comics-etc auctions going on over the next fortnight. There’s a lot of interesting stuff in the non-sports categories, but here are the sports cards lots I’m watching:

There are 23 F1 lots, and the offerings are getting more and more diverse as the consignment managers go out of their way to hoover up everything racing-related. An unopened case of 2020 Chrome F1 is the pick of the litter for me. Watch for it to break $40k to give us a sign F1 has still got some momentum behind it.

Not to be outdone, there are 44 soccer (football) lots, headlined by a BGS 9.5 graded Ronaldo rookie. It’s already at $41k, just 4k off CardLadder’s valuation, so we could be due for a soccer cards rebound.

This card is in pristine condition, but Ronaldo’s reputation – not so much.

The obligatory Michael Jordan rookie is up to $228k with a lot of time to go. The most recent sale was $240k, and the centering on this one isn’t great. Again, that could indicate a bottom if this smashes through recent sales.

Reaching for a new YTD high

PWCC’s monthly premier auction is matching Goldin’s MJ performance nearly point for point with a top 15% eye appeal version of the card, sitting at $220k with ten days to go.

They’ve also released another Steph Curry 2009 NT RPA /99 card. This one has seen a lot of action lately, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it top $700k.

It boasts one of the finest Golden State Warriors patches ever seen.

Remember the BGS 9.5 Ronaldo rookie at Goldin? PWCC’s got a PSA 10 version, and that’s going to be a huge data point for the tippy top of the soccer market. The most recent sale was for $319k in autumn 2021, and Rally has a copy trading at $186k right now. It’s at $80k at the time of writing.

That’s all for this week. Make sure to check out our Discord, where issue previews and in-depth valuations get kicked around.

If you want to hear from me more often, you’re in luck – we launched The WC, a new weekly edition that you can sign up for HERE.

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Author

Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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