Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Singapore’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q3
- Real Estate: Homebuilder sentiment rose 3 points this month
- Startups: Oura, the smart ring maker, hit a $5 billion valuation
- Private Credit: Frazier raised $2.3 billion for its latest flagship
- Crypto: Pennsylvania passed a Bitcoin Rights bill
- NFTs: NFTs recorded a weekly sales volume of $181 million
- Art: A duct-taped banana sold for $6.2 million at Sotheby’s
- Vintage Autos: A 1921 Talbot Darracq sold for £50,000
- Coins: An 1870 $20 gold coin sold for $1.44 million
- Farmland: A 176-acre century farm sold for $3.18 million
- Luxury: Tapestry announced $2 billion in share repurchases.
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Hennessy workers went on strike
- Film & Music: Limp Bizkit sued Universal Music Group
- Precious Metals: Platinum group metals prices rebounded
- Collectibles: A 1933 Babe Ruth card sold for $1.62 million
- Websites: Sedo sold Garden.co for €50,000
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Goldman Sachs Research predicted US GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025.
- Mexico’s GDP growth in Q3 was revised up to 1.1% from the estimate of 1%, the fastest pace in almost two years.
- China maintained its benchmark lending rates at 3.1% for 1-year and 3.6% for 5-year loans.
- Hungarian wage growth remained strong at 12.5% year-on-year in September, with real wage growth exceeding 9%.
- California announced a $120 million investment for job-creating projects across 10 key industry sectors.
- Singapore’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q3.
- Brazil’s economy has shown resilience, with real GDP growth forecast at 3% for 2024.
Bearish News
- Canada’s inflation rate jumped back to 2% in October, curbing large rate-cut bets.
- Eurozone business activity fell sharply in November, raising the odds of a half-point ECB rate cut.
- Nearly half of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, according to Bank of America.
- Colorado’s unemployment rate hit 4.1% in October, rising for the seventh time this year.
- Germany’s economy grew a meager 0.1% in Q3.
What are the odds?
Why are businesses fleeing the Eurozone?
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Real Estate
Bullish News
- Homebuilder sentiment rose three points in November, the biggest jump in seven months.
- The New Jersey Economic Development Authority approved over $17 million in funding for 12 real estate projects.
- Galvanize Real Estate acquired a 608,000-square-foot industrial asset in Central New Jersey.
- Blackstone purchased a four-property retail portfolio in SoHo from ASB Real Estate Investments for $197.5 million.
Bearish News
- Large banks face an 11% commercial real estate default rate, particularly office loans.
- Progress and Tricon Residential faced lawsuits alleging bans on renters with criminal records disproportionately impacting Black tenants.
- Arizona’s Paradise Valley luxury market faced challenges after spec builders flooded it, leaving high-priced homes unsold for longer.
- CRG’s Uptown apartment building in Chicago is scheduled for a UCC foreclosure auction on December 16.
- Home sales in five major Florida cities plummeted. Fort Lauderdale’s pending sales dropped 15.2% year over year.
- In October, Nashville home prices fell slightly from the month before, with a median listing price of $629,900.
How to invest in real estate right now:
What happened to the Florida migration?
Startups
Bullish News
- Oura, the smart ring maker, hit a $5 billion valuation in its latest round, more than doubling from its 2022 Series C.
- Enveda, an AI biotech company, closed a $130 million Series C to deliver clinical readouts from its pipeline of 10 development candidates.
- Wiz announced plans to acquire cloud remediation startup Dazz for a reported $450 million.
- Amazon doubled down on its investment in AI startup Anthropic with an additional $4 billion.
Bearish News
- The FBI indicted Joanna Smith-Griffin, founder of AI startup AllHere Education, for defrauding investors out of nearly $10 million.
- MENA startups raised only $134 million in October 2024, a 52% month-on-month decrease.
- Ola Electric laid off 500 employees due to ongoing financial struggles and customer service issues.
How to invest in startups right now:
Wizz acquired Dazz. I’m noticing a pattern.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Barings launched the first-ever European middle market PC CLO at €380 million.
- The global PC market reached $3 trillion, with corporate lending accounting for 60% of overall AUM.
- Silver Point Capital closed on over $8.5 billion for its Direct Lending franchise, bringing its total investable capital to over $15 billion.
- Blackstone struck an $8 billion deal for sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s Subs.
- Healthcare PE firm Frazier raised $2.3 billion for its latest flagship fund.
Bearish News
- BlackRock wound down its $4.3 billion Long-Term Private Capital fund despite securing $300 million for a second fund.
- Thoma Bravo’s Quorum Software locked in lower borrowing costs on an $865 million unitranche deal.
- Arbitrium Capital Partners’ founder has begun to battle former Deloitte colleagues for control of Keystone Asset Management’s $480 million Shield Master Fund.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Who knew PE could fund a sandwich?
Crypto
Bullish News
- Pennsylvania passed a Bitcoin Rights bill and proposed a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act allowing up to $970 million in Bitcoin investments.
- Mastercard and JP Morgan partnered to create an interoperable B2B blockchain for cross-border payments.
- The UK announced plans to include stablecoins in its new crypto regulations starting in early 2025.
- Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings secured $1 billion in funding through zero-interest convertible notes.
- Archax added tokenized money market funds from State Street, Fidelity International, and LGIM to its platform.
- Options trading began on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has accumulated nearly $42 billion in assets.
Bearish News
- North Korean hacker groups were confirmed as perpetrators of the 2019 Upbit crypto theft.
- Apple admitted to a remote code exploit that threatened crypto security.
- Bitfinex hack’s “Razzlekhan” sentenced to 18 months for money laundering.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Bitcoin deserves rights like the rest of us.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Naver Pay and ShardLab introduced NFT ticketing at South Korea’s DAN24, issuing 20,867 NFTs and processing 8,849 transactions.
- NFTs recorded a weekly sales volume of $181 million, a 94% increase from the previous week.
- Vitalik Buterin’s Ethereum address minted 400 Patron NFTs, distributing 40% of TRUE tokens during Truemarkets’ Fair Launch TGE.
- NikolAI launched AI-generated NFTs for mathematician and cryptographer Nikolai Durov’s 44th birthday.
Bearish News
- Shaquille O’Neal agreed to pay $11 million to settle a class-action lawsuit for promoting the failed Astrals NFT project.
- A Carnegie Mellon study found gender and racial disparities in NFT prices, with female and Black avatars selling for less.
- Logan Paul faces growing scrutiny over alleged crypto promotion profits without revealing financial ties.
- An analysis revealed that 98% of NFTs launched in 2024 were unprofitable, with only 0.2% yielding investor gains.
- An artist accused Coinbase’s Base of using his artwork without permission for an NFT, profiting over $36,000.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
No better gift than AI-generated NFTs.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Monet’s water lilies painting from 1914-1917 fetched $65.5 million at Sotheby’s, surpassing its $60 million estimate.
- Maurizio Cattelan’s conceptual artwork “Comedian,” featuring a duct-taped banana, sold for $6.2 million at Sotheby’s.
- Emerging artist Li Hei Di’s “Unfolding a Flood” sold for $127,000 at Phillips, setting a new auction record.
- René Magritte’s 1954 painting “L’empire des lumières” sold for a record $121 million at Christie’s.
- The Regional Arts Commission of St. Louis dispersed $9.69 million in grants to artists and organizations in 2024.
Bearish News
- A painting by Nicolas de Largillierre that was looted by the Nazis is being auctioned at Christie’s Paris.
- Robbers stole diamond-encrusted snuffboxes in a raid on a Paris museum.
- Phillips’s contemporary art auction in New York brought in a slim $44.2 million, hampered by a Basquiat flop.
- Andy Warhol’s Farrah Fawcett portrait sold at a steep discount for $1.5 million, far less than the $15-22 million offers five years ago.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I’d sell someone a banana taped to a wall for half that.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- A 1921 Talbot Darracq and 1952 Mercedes 220 convertible sold for £50,000 after 40 years in a barn.
- RM Sotheby’s held a Las Vegas auction featuring the last Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing, valued at $2.5-3.5 million.
- A 1973 Ferrari Dino 246 GTS, once owned by Bob Seger, was auctioned on Bring a Trailer.
- Jerry Seinfeld sold Steve McQueen’s Porsche 917 from Le Mans at Mecum Kissimmee in January 2025.
Bearish News
- Ford sued Vintage Broncos for trademark infringement over its retro-style Bronco builds on modern chassis.
- A man pleaded guilty to murdering a couple he lured to buy a vintage car on Craigslist in 2015.
- The Delhi LG ordered authorities to stop targeting vintage car owners after reports of legally protected vehicles being wrongly impounded.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
What’s the deal with Porsche 917s?
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- An 1870 $20 “double eagle” gold coin minted in Carson City sold for $1.44 million at auction.
- A 1652 New England threepence coin, one of three known, set a record at $2.52 million.
Bearish News
- A Bozeman, Montana, man reported 120 missing one-ounce silver coins worth over $4,000.
- Three people in Jonesboro, Arkansas, were arrested for stealing gold coins, a gun, and drugs.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I could use a 1652 threepence right about now.
Farmland
Bullish News
- Charoen Pokphand Foods invested P10.55 billion to grow its hog business in the Philippines.
- A 176-acre century farm in Waterloo, Illinois, sold for $3.18 million, averaging $18,075 per acre.
- Ducks Unlimited and partners received $18.96 million from the USDA for conservation efforts in Southern Illinois.
- Connecticut launched a $2.5 million program to support socially disadvantaged farmers in owning farms.
- G20 launched a Global Alliance to provide school meals to 150 million children by 2030.
Bearish News
- Farm income in the northern Plains declined, with 83% of ag bankers predicting lower Q4 2024 income.
- Thousands of British farmers protested against a tax hike on agricultural property inheritance.
- A Penn State study found phosphorus loss from farmland has increased over four decades.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
They’re taxing agricultural property inheritance now? Is nothing sacred?
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- The global luxury handbags market is expected to grow at 7.1% CAGR, reaching $53.3 billion by 2031.
- Luxury footwear market revenue is projected to hit $71.32 billion by 2033, growing at 7.04% CAGR.
- Thailand’s personal luxury goods market is forecasted to reach $3.6 billion by 2029.
- Africa’s luxury market shows resilience, with South Africa’s leading and pre-owned luxury goods seeing 30% growth.
- Tapestry, Inc. announced $2 billion in accelerated share repurchases.
- Massachusetts Financial Services Co. acquired over 2.5 million shares of Estée Lauder Companies.
Bearish News
- The luxury goods market faces its first slowdown since the Great Recession, with 50 million consumers opting out.
- Personal luxury goods sales are predicted to drop 2% in 2024, with limited brand growth.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
South Africa is picking up where China’s been dropping off.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- The Golden Vines 2024 Report showed 64% of responses predicting growth in the global fine wine market by 2025.
- Kroger launched a Black Friday lottery for 1,000 Pappy Van Winkle bourbon bottles across 60 Kentucky stores.
Bearish News
- The founder of Bin To Bottle sued its new PE owners for $176,500 over alleged contract violations.
- Hennessy workers in Cognac went on strike over bottling proposals in China.
- Thieves stole $1 million worth of Santo Tequila from Texas trucks.
- Underground Cellar declared bankruptcy, leaving customers without access to over 500,000 purchased bottles.
- Chicago’s hospitality industry opposed Mayor Brandon Johnson’s liquor tax hike, citing customer loss to suburbs.
- The Better Business Bureau warned of bourbon scams involving counterfeit Pappy Van Winkle bottles.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Be sure to double-check your Pappy Van Winkle bottles…
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Bell Partners and Larrosa formed a $350 million-backed alliance to acquire independent music companies and catalogs.
- UK cinema chain Vue launched Vue Lumière to distribute arthouse, foreign-language, and UK independent films.
- The global live music market is expected to grow at 17.38% CAGR, reaching $35.56 billion by 2028.
Bearish News
- Limp Bizkit sued Universal Music Group for $200 million over unpaid royalties.
- Kinepolis Group’s share price dropped 39% over the past five years.
- AEG Presents resumed its lawsuit against Young Thug over his alleged $16 million catalog sale.
- Suriya’s Kanguva saw a 68% box office drop on its second Friday.
- A new Massachusetts bill faced backlash for allegedly strengthening Ticketmaster’s monopoly by limiting ticket resales.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
UMG vs. The Bizkit
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Platinum group metals prices rebounded as recent drops were quickly bought up.
- The global lab-grown diamond market is projected to grow from $25.89 billion in 2024 to $74.45 billion by 2032 at a 14.11% CAGR.
- Rare-earth metals, valued at $5.64 billion in 2023, are expected to grow at a 10.26% CAGR through 2033.
- Texas proposed gold and silver-backed currencies to challenge fiat money.
Bearish News
- A class action lawsuit accuses TMC the metals company of misleading investors.
- Metal and mineral prices dropped 7% in 2024 Q3 as industrial activity slowed.
- Gemfields’ November emerald auction raised $16.1 million but left 30% of lots unsold.
- Mexico’s proposed mining royalty hike could block nearly $7 billion in investments over two years.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
And fiat money needs challenging.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- McDonald’s and Doodles partnered to offer holiday-themed physical and digital collectibles with McCafe purchases through its app.
- A 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth card sold for $1.62 million at a Fanatics auction.
- Speedland launched three limited-edition trail running shoes priced between $250 and $299.
Bearish News
- A man claims GameStop lost $375,000 worth of trading cards he sent for grading, and the incident is now under police investigation.
- Argentine police seized Nazi weapons and memorabilia, including guns and Hitler busts.
- Comic prices rose, with over half of 2024 titles costing $4.99 or more, pushing buyers away.
- Nike seeks partial judgment in its lawsuit against StockX over counterfeit resale claims.
- Fractional investing in sports cards has mostly failed, with assets priced above current market value.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Stefan dug into the current state of fractional investing yesterday.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Constantine Roussos launched the .music domain after a seven-year effort.
- AI domains dominated DNJournal’s sales chart, with 8 of the top 10 sales.
- The Domain Name Registrar Market is expected to grow at 4.98% CAGR from 2023 to 2033 due to ecommerce and personal branding.
- Sedo sold Garden.co for €50,000 and Aero.ai for €33,333 to businesses in tech and AI.
- Reddit’s r/cryptocurrency and Unstoppable Domains launched the .MOON blockchain domain for Web3 access.
Bearish News
- Google tightened rules on ”parasite SEO” content, targeting sites exploiting rankings.
- Scammers are using fake Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals to steal sensitive data.
- Google premium ads stopped on parked domains as of November 18, 2024, cutting parking revenue by 95%.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
If a deal seems too good to be true, it’s probably a scam.
That’s all for this week.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at AShareX.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
