Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: The US economy grew at a 3% rate in the 2nd quarter
- Real Estate: The S&P builder index rose 57% in 12 months
- Startups: The tech sector has seen 60,000 layoffs in 2024
- Private Credit: 20 senior bankers switched sides to PC firms
- Crypto: 25% of family offices invested in digital assets
- NFTs: NFT artwork sales flatlined since 2021
- Art: Christie’s Hong Kong sales hit $134 million
- Vintage Autos: A 1969 Dodge Hemi scored a $3.3 million bid
- Coins: August 2024 set record prices for rare US coins
- Farmland: Farmers’ income was projected to fall by 25%
- Luxury: LVMH invested in Moncler SpA
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Diageo acquired Ritual Zero Proof
- Film & Music: TikTok shut down TikTok Music
- Precious Metals: Gold reached a record $2,657 per ounce
- Collectibles: A Roberto Clemente card sold for $840,000
- Websites: Meta acquired Threads.com
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- The US economy grew at a 3% annual rate in the second quarter.
- China cut the bank reserve ratio and plans to invest 2 trillion yuan in special bonds.
- Italy has seen 1% GDP growth in 2024 and expects 1.2% in 2025, while cutting its deficit goals.
- Mexico’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.50% as inflation cooled.
- The Asian Development Bank maintained its growth forecast for developing Asia at 5% for 2024.
Bearish News
- US consumer confidence dropped to 98.7 as consumers worried about jobs.
- German unemployment rose to 6% in September.
- Analysts predicted China is unlikely to meet its 5% growth target.
- Moody’s said the US fiscal profile is set to weaken under the next administration.
What are the odds?
[WOL]
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- The annual income needed to afford a median-priced US home declined 1.4% year-over-year in August, the first annual drop since June 2020.
- The S&P builder index rose 57% in 12 months.
- Home prices are expected to rise at a rate of 3.4% in 2025.
- The recent federal rate cut softened the Denver housing market, encouraging more homebuyers to enter.
- Tidewater Capital bought the Sunnyvale office campus for $65 million.
- CBRE predicted annual real estate investment will be up 5% this year, with 15-20% growth expected in 2025.
Bearish News
- The delinquency rate on loans held in CMBS rose 2.04 percentage points to 3.89% in Q2 2024.
- Pittsburgh’s office market vacancy reached a record high since Class A space is at 20% and Class B at 15% in the CBD.
- San Francisco’s office vacancy hit a record high of 37.3% in Q3 2024, with 8.7 million square feet available for subleasing.
- 86% of agents believe commission structure changes will lead to agents leaving the industry.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Housing’s up, offices are down, looks like I’m moving into a WeWork.
Startups
Bullish News
- M&A for venture-backed companies reached $67 billion across more than 1,300 deals in 2024 so far, up from $72 billion across 1,700+ deals in 2023.
- Japan-based restaurant management platform Dinii raised a $48 million Series B led by Bessemer Venture Partners.
- Sequoia Capital made its first space investment since SpaceX by leading Reflect Orbital’s $6.5 million seed round.
- UK fintech Apron, which offers invoice processing for SMEs, raised $30 million in a Series B led by Zinal Growth.
- Australia’s InDebted, a digital debt collection fintech, secured £50 million (US$66 million) in a Series C round led by Airtree.
Bearish News
- Canada’s startup market hit a “bottom” in the first half of 2024, with venture funding down and sentiment “stubbornly defensive”.
- South Korean startups are struggling to raise capital as investment falls and investors become more cautious and demanding.
- The tech sector has seen 60,000 layoffs across 254 companies in 2024.
How to invest in startups right now:
Sequoia just hit the stratosphere again.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- At least 20 senior bankers in Europe have switched sides to PC firms since rate rises upended capital markets.
- KKR raised $4.6 billion for its debut fund focused on mid-sized deals in North America.
- Citigroup and Apollo agreed to work together on $25 billion worth of deals over the next five years.
- Blackstone confirmed a $13.3 billion investment for an AI data center in northeast England.
- Monroe Capital announced plans to launch a fresh fund of up to $1 billion to provide loans for smaller auto suppliers as the industry shifts to EVs.
Bearish News
- PE and VC deal volume in Brazil is expected to decline further in 2024.
- PE deal count was down 22% in August.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Hope northeast England brought their ear plugs.
Crypto
Bullish News
- A Citibank survey found that 25% of family offices had invested or planned to invest in digital assets.
- Boost VC, Draper Associates, and Thesis* launched the BitcoinFi Accelerator, providing $150,000 in funding to pre-seed Bitcoin projects.
- Ethereum transaction fees surged 498% in 10 days.
Bearish News
- South Korea’s Personal Information Protection Commission fined Worldcoin and Tools for Humanity $861,408 for violating data collection disclosure requirements.
- Crypto scam app stole $70,000 in a five-month campaign.
- A woman lost over $1 million over a crypto scam.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Who is still falling for these crypto scams?
NFTs
Bullish News
- Puma partnered with the Web3 mobile game UNKJD Soccer to integrate Puma-based characters and branded skins into the game.
- $SNOOPLE, a new meme coin, announced plans to launch an NFT Marketplace on the Solana blockchain.
- Hamster Kombat released its roadmap ahead of its token airdrop, including token buybacks, NFT integration, and launching a progressive web app.
Bearish News
- OpenSea users filed a class-action lawsuit claiming the platform sold unregistered securities.
- NFT artwork sales have flatlined since the 2021 boom, with only 1,459 sales last month compared to over 100,000 in August 2021.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Who’s hopping on snoople?
Artwork
Bullish News
- Chardin’s still life set a $28.9 million record for 18th-century French painting at Christie’s auction.
- Christie’s Hong Kong sales hit $134 million, with Van Gogh’s painting setting an Asian record at $32.4 million.
- A judge dismissed bankruptcy filings, allowing the Michael Jackson artwork auction to proceed on October 5.
- Christie’s expanded their presence in the Middle East with a new outpost in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Bearish News
- Christie’s brought in $1.6 billion in fine-art sales in the first half of 2024, a 28.2% dip from the same period last year.
- The global art market is worth $45-65 billion, the same as cosmetics packaging.
- Two Just Stop Oil activists who threw soup at Van Gogh’s Sunflowers were sentenced to jail for two years and 20 months, respectively.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I always wondered what the penalty for soup-throwing was.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Three long-lost Lamborghini Miuras found in a junkyard are set to sell for $2 million at RM Sotheby’s.
- A 1958 Aston Martin DB4 Works Prototype was estimated at £1.3 million at Bonhams|Cars Zoute.
- A rare 1970 Dodge Challenger was discovered in a Michigan muscle car graveyard.
- RM Sotheby’s features four post-war Bentleys, led by a 1958 S1 Continental Coupé, is expected to fetch up to £950,000.
- A 1969 Dodge Daytona Hemi V8 broke records with a $3.3 million bid.
Bearish News
- Monterey Car Week auctions underperformed, with a sell-through rate of 72%, down from over 75% in previous years.
- Hagerty data indicated the classic car market has plateaued, with 40% of UK models and 35% of US models declining in value by September 2024.
- Four men in Rhode Island were charged with stealing 120 luxury vehicles, valued at $5 million, from dealerships across the northeastern US.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
I was just wondering where I’d left my three Lamborghini Miuras…
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- August 2024 set record prices for rare US and global coins as demand increased worldwide.
- A 1796 Draped Bust Half Dollar sold for over $40,000 at a Philadelphia auction.
- Experts predicted rare coins like early $5 gold pieces and Liberty Head double eagles will surge in value by 2025.
- Two Carson City Mint Coronet gold $20 double eagles sold for $36,000 each at the Fairmont Collection sale.
- A man in the UK received a rare 25p coin worth nearly $1,000 in his lunch change.
- A 1976 US Bicentennial 25-cent coin is worth up to $600,000 due to its minting error.
- A metal detectorist discovered a hoard of ancient Roman coins that sold for $176,000 at auction.
- A rare 1849 Mormon gold coin, valued at over $1 million, will be displayed in Utah.
Bearish News
- A Massachusetts mail carrier admitted to stealing $5,800 in rare coins and was recommended for probation and restitution.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Gotta love a minting error.
Farmland
Bullish News
- Germany’s beer industry developed climate-resistant hops to combat climate change through education and research.
- The UAE showcased agricultural innovations at the G20, focusing on sustainable tech to enhance global food security.
- Kaohsiung City promoted its “One-Day Farmer Experience” at Japan’s largest tourism expo.
- Fork Farms partnered with over 1,000 schools across 50 states and 14 countries to integrate hydroponic farming.
- The US House passed a bill enabling federal scrutiny and potential bans on farmland sales to Chinese firms.
- The USDA announced a $248 million investment in renewable energy projects across nine states under PACE.
Bearish News
- A looming shutdown at 36 US eastern and Gulf Coast ports could severely disrupt agricultural exports.
- Farmland prices and equipment sales remained weak, according to the Rural Mainstreet Index.
- Farmers’ income is projected to fall by 25% due to high costs and low crop prices.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Germany is on the cutting edge of all things beer.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- The US remained a top global luxury market with 2023 retail sales exceeding $75 billion.
- The global personal luxury market grew 4% to €352 billion.
- LVMH invested in Moncler SpA, acquiring a 10% stake in its investment vehicle.
- The brand value of Dior worldwide reached $8.75 billion in 2023.
- The ultra-wealthy population is expected to grow 28% by 2028, with a combined net worth of $49.2 trillion.
Bearish News
- The FTC moved to block Tapestry’s $8.5 billion Capri Holdings purchase.
- Gucci sought $14 million from Lord & Taylor for allegedly promoting and selling counterfeit Gucci products.
- Breitling’s CEO expressed confidence that the luxury industry had bottomed out due to a China-led slowdown.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
My chances of being ultra-wealthy just went up.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Pennsylvania’s implemented a new law allowing canned cocktails in grocery stores.
- South Seas Distilleries released the first premium spirit from the Mahua flower.
- Spirits volumes rose 4% in global travel retail, driven by American whiskey, Scotch, and Tequila.
- The US wine market is expected to see positive shipment numbers by year-end.
- Diageo acquired Ritual Zero Proof, the top non-alcoholic spirit brand in the US.
- UK spirits maker Distil raised £650,000 for Christmas season promotions and production.
Bearish News
- US spirits volumes fell 3% in early 2024, with Tequila and American whiskey seeing the largest declines.
- California grape growers offered deep discounts as they struggled to find buyers.
- A new USDA rule requiring organic certification for wine importers caused significant disruptions and potential penalties.
- Wine sales have declined for nearly three years, returning to pre-pandemic levels.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
I’m starting to like Pennsylvania’s style.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Warner Music appointed Corey Sheridan as global head of commerce for ADA, its independent label division.
- Universal Music acquired Thailand’s second-largest music catalog from RS Group for $70 million.
- Iconoclast purchased the publishing rights to Grammy-winning artist Eve’s catalog.
- AI startup Runway launched The Hundred Film Fund, offering filmmakers grants up to $1 million for AI-driven projects.
- The global music and video market is projected to grow by $875 billion from 2024-2028, driven by AI and tech advances.
- Coldplay was named the UK’s most-played band of the 21st century by PPL.
Bearish News
- TikTok shut down its 18-month-old TikTok Music on-demand streaming service.
- Warner Music Group shut down Level Music, its digital distribution platform for self-releasing artists.
- Max Lousada, Warner Music’s CEO of recorded music since 2017, wrote a farewell note as he exited the company.
- Sky Group sued Warner Bros. for allegedly breaching their partnership agreement on the upcoming “Harry Potter” TV series.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Way to go, Coldplay.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Silver surged over 35% in 2024, driven by gold’s bull run, China’s stimulus, and strong demand in India.
- Gold reached a record $2,657 per ounce, fueled by geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cut expectations, and weak US data.
- American West Metals secured $12.5 million in royalty funding from Taurus Mining for the Storm Copper Project in Canada.
- According to the International Platinum Group Metals Association, recycling precious metals cuts carbon output by over 90%.
- Indian gold demand is set to rise after import tax dropped from 15% to 6%.
- The US committed up to $786 million in debt funding to Australian lithium and rare earth projects.
Bearish News
- The US Dollar weakened after the Richmond Manufacturing Index hit -21 and Consumer Confidence dropped to 98.7.
- Lab-grown diamonds accounted for 14.3% of the total diamond supply in 2023, expected to reach 21.3% by 2025.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Can I get a pulse check on lab-grown? Are we for or against?
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Sotheby’s and Fanatics’ “Holy Grails” auction reached $7 million, with 51% of sales online.
- Robert Kraft bought a Tom Brady rookie card for $120,000 while sitting beside Brady.
- A 1955 Topps Roberto Clemente rookie card PSA 9 sold for $840,000.
- Caitlin Clark led WNBA card submissions with 42,000 graded by PSA this year.
- Shohei Ohtani’s 50th homerun ball opened for auction at $500,000 despite an ownership dispute.
- Kendrick Lamar used a North Little Rock couple’s eBay shoe listing as cover art for his latest single.
- Detroit’s 3 Kings Sports Cards & Collectibles is expanding downtown, opening in Fall 2024.
Bearish News
- Gen Alpha teens stole zippers from Nike Elite backpacks, reselling them for up to $40 each.
- Two masked men were arrested for stealing $8,000 in Magic: The Gathering cards from a Murfreesboro comic store.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Who knew zippers could be so lucrative?
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Meta acquired Threads.com.
- Google recommended reducing reliance on WHOIS data for domain verification due to security risks.
- WordPress.org temporarily reinstated WP Engine hosting until October 1 after previously blocking it.
Bearish News
- The Dan.com to Afternic migration caused issues, leaving expired domains as stale listings.
- ICANN issued a breach notice to Aceville Pte Ltd for neglecting DNS abuse standards.
- Threat actors exploited ChromeLoader to create fake companies and malware-laden sites.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Is anybody still using Threads?
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Pytheas.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
