Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: US credit card debt reached $1.17 trillion in Q3 2024
- Real Estate: 90% of metro areas saw home price gains in Q3
- Startups: Wonder entered acquisition talks with Grubhub
- Private Credit: General Catalyst acquired Summa Health
- Crypto: Russia approved a crypto tax framework
- NFTs: Doodles secured a partnership with McDonald’s
- Art: A Rothko painting sold for $32.5 million
- Vintage Autos: A 1989 Ferrari F40 sold for £1.97 million
- Coins: A 1975 Roosevelt dime sold for $506,250
- Farmland: US farmland values grew 4.7% in 2024
- Luxury: Louis Vuitton opened its largest US store in NYC
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: US wine sales fell 4% in 2024
- Film & Music: German music rights body GEMA sued OpenAI
- Precious Metals: Diamond exports rose 11.32% in October
- Collectibles: A Harry Potter Marauder’s Map raised $299,250
- Websites: Win.ai sold for $130,000
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- US weekly jobless claims dropped to 217,000, with continuing claims decreasing by 11,000.
- Japan’s economy grew 0.9% annually in Q3 2024, with private consumption expanding 3.6%.
- Eurozone employment rose 0.2% and GDP expanded by 0.4% in Q3, beating economist expectations.
- India’s net direct tax collection increased 15.4% to $143 billion between April and November.
- Japan announced a stimulus package of $87 billion to offset rising prices.
Bearish News
- The UK economy contracted unexpectedly by 0.1% in September, with GDP per capita showing no annual growth since 2022.
- Russia’s economy has begun to face stagflation risk with inflation hitting 8.54% and GDP slumping 3.1%.
- US credit card debt reached a record $1.17 trillion in Q3 2024.
- Moody’s downgraded Mexico’s outlook to negative due to a weakening judiciary and rising debt.
- Wall Street stocks tumbled sharply after Powell indicated a slower pace of rate cuts, with Nasdaq dropping 2.03%.
What are the odds?
A December rate cut is becoming less of a given.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Nearly 90% of metro areas recorded home price gains in Q3 2024, with the national median price rising 3.1% to $418,700.
- The commercial real estate lending market improved by 13% in Q3 2024.
- Blackstone acquired Retail Opportunity Investment Corp for $4 billion.
- Dallas-Fort Worth emerged as the top real estate market for 2025, with employment growth of 11.2% since February 2020.
- M&A activity in homebuilding reached record dollar volumes in 2024.
Bearish News
- San Francisco’s median home price dropped to $1.19 million, down from $1.44 million in 2020.
- China’s real estate investment fell by 10.3% year-to-date through October.
- One-third of mortgage investors committed occupancy fraud.
- Florida’s southwest coast saw home prices fall 6.5% in Punta Gorda and 5.8% in Sarasota, the steepest drops since 2011.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Metros are booming! Except SF.
Startups
Bullish News
- AI startup Writer secured $200 million in funding at a $1.9 billion valuation.
- Wonder, led by former Walmart executive Marc Lore, entered advanced acquisition talks with Grubhub.
- Defense tech company CHAOS Industries raised $145 million in Series B from Accel and others.
- Former F1 champion Nico Rosberg’s VC fund secured $100 million to invest in top US venture firms.
- Former Snyk founder raised $125 million for new AI software startup Tessl, backed by Index Ventures and GV.
- BioNTech acquired Chinese oncology startup Biotheus for $950 million, expanding its cancer treatment portfolio.
Bearish News
- Crypto venture funding fell 31.1% to $1.7 billion in Q3, with deal count dropping 25.3%.
- Tech layoffs reached 130,000 job cuts across 457 companies in 2024.
- Ginkgo Bioworks abandoned expansion plans and will sublease its new 251,000-square-foot Seaport building.
- Marketing startup Metigy’s founder was charged with fraud after falsifying revenue statements and borrowing $7 million for personal real estate.
- GM’s Cruise admitted to submitting false reports in a robotaxi crash investigation and will pay a $500,000 fine.
- Blockchain startup funding dropped to a quarterly low of $2.4 billion, with Web3 and gaming sectors declining 39%.
How to invest in startups right now:
How often are robotaxis getting in crashes?
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Vuori secured an $825 million investment from General Atlantic and Stripes.
- Family offices increased participation in the $140 billion secondary sales market.
- Thoma Bravo attracted significant investment from ADIA for Qlik, while maintaining majority ownership.
- PE managers secured $61 billion in commitments during October, with PE strategies collecting $58 billion.
- D.E. Shaw raised $1 billion for its latest PC vehicle, Alkali Fund VI.
- Blackstone provided $300 million in backing to Brigade Capital for PC expansion and CLO development.
Bearish News
- CIM Group sold at a loss of $72 million on its Upper East Side luxury apartment building to Carlyle Group.
- A judge pressed the SEC over a rogue employee issue in its PE fund investigation.
- Data breach notification laws caused higher borrowing costs for companies seeking private debt.
- General Catalyst acquired Summa Health for $485 million.
- Carlyle Group director D’Aniello sold $25.5 million of his shares.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Interesting time for a PE firm to acquire a hospital.
Crypto
Bullish News
- Societe Generale expanded its EURCV stablecoin to the XRP Ledger.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.7 billion in net inflows over six days, making Bitcoin the seventh-largest asset globally.
- Pennsylvania lawmakers introduced legislation to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
- Russia approved a comprehensive crypto tax framework, with potential annual revenue of $521 million.
- A Sygnum survey found 57% of institutional investors plan to increase their crypto allocations.
- Franklin Templeton expanded its $410 million money market fund to the Ethereum blockchain.
Bearish News
- South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit identified 600,000 KYC violations at Upbit exchange, with potential fines of $71,500 per case.
- Bitfinex hacker Ilya Lichtenstein was sentenced to five years for laundering $10.5 billion worth of stolen bitcoin.
- Thai police arrested crypto miners for stealing $287,191 in electricity, seizing 286 mining machines across multiple locations.
- California regulators revoked BlockFi’s lending license for failing to consider borrowers’ ability to repay loans.
- South Korean police arrested 215 people in a $228.4 million crypto scam involving 28 worthless tokens.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Stealing electricity is something I hadn’t even considered.
NFTs
Bullish News
- OpenSea announced a complete platform overhaul coming December 2024, with over 308,000 wallets already signed up.
- Doodles secured a partnership with McDonald’s to feature artwork on 100 million McCafe cups across US restaurants.
- Lamborghini partnered with Animoca Brands to launch Revuelto NFTs that unlock digital vehicles across multiple games.
- The fashion brands NFT market is projected to grow at 12.6% CAGR through 2030.
- BNB Chain’s NFT trading volume increased by 283% in Q3, reaching $600,400 in average daily volume.
Bearish News
- Alibaba cut dozens of staff from its metaverse division after billions in investment.
- OpenSea’s new platform update sparked concerns over potential token launch amid declining NFT valuations.
- A study revealed 98% of 2024 NFT drops had no trading activity, with only 0.2% being profitable.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Excited to get behind the wheel of my (digital) Lambo.
Artwork
Bullish News
- The British Museum received a $1.27 billion donation of 1,700 Chinese ceramics from the Percival David Foundation.
- New York auction houses announced expected sales of $1.6 billion for their marquee autumn events.
- Abu Dhabi advanced its art market presence with a potential $20 million investment in Art Basel, following its $1 billion Sotheby’s investment.
Bearish News
- Italian police seized over 2,100 counterfeit artworks valued at $265 million, including fake Klimt, Dalí, and Warhol pieces.
- San Francisco’s Contemporary Jewish Museum announced an indefinite closure due to persistent financial difficulties.
- French authorities arrested Swiss art dealer Yves Bouvier over missing Picasso artworks valued at $28.5 million.
- A Rothko painting sold for $32.5 million at Sotheby’s Hong Kong, 30% less than its previous auction price in 2015.
- Sotheby’s paid $6.25 million to settle tax fraud charges in New York over helping clients avoid sales tax.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Are Rothko’s falling out of style?
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- The Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance raised $3.13 million for charity in 2024.
- RM Sotheby’s London auction achieved £17.43 million in sales, with a 1989 Ferrari F40 selling for £1.97 million.
- A 1921 Talbot-Darracq 16hp open tourer, sold at auction with an estimated value between £6,000 and £8,000.
- The final Mercedes-Benz 300SL Gullwing ever produced, headed to the Las Vegas auction with estimates between $2.5 million and $3.5 million.
- Classic cars demonstrated a 183% value increase over the past decade.
Bearish News
- A garage fire north of Erie destroyed 10 vintage cars in an overnight blaze.
- Over 17,000 flood-damaged cars, including rare supercars and collectibles, flooded Florida auctions after Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
- A vintage Rolls-Royce dispute led to the breakdown of a royal marriage in India.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
So who ended up with the car…
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- A rare 1907 Saint-Gaudens High Relief Double Eagle graded CACG MS-64 was discovered in a mystery box and reached $37,000 at auction.
- Stack’s Bowers Galleries won the contract to auction the first 230 privy mark Flowing Hair gold coins from the US Mint.
- A 1975 Roosevelt dime without an ‘S’ mint mark sold for $506,250, setting a new record.
- A rare 1891 Dutch quarter featuring Queen Wilhelmina sold for €1 million, breaking the previous Dutch coin auction record.
Bearish News
- Customs officials intercepted 116 historical coins being smuggled to Russia through Karshi Airport.
- A recently released felon stole $50,000 in silver coins and firearms from two Hillsborough County homes.
- A California state worker stole diamonds and coins from unclaimed property meant to be returned to rightful heirs.
- The US Supreme Court declined to hear the case of 10 banned 1933 Double Eagles, leaving the valuable coins locked in a federal vault.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
You don’t hear talk about banned coins.
Farmland
Bullish News
- German agtech startup Klim secured $22 million in Series A funding and partnered with Nestlé to scale regenerative food systems.
- Lidl’s investment in British farming reached $21 billion over five years.
- Cargill RegenConnect surpassed 1 million enrolled acres for 2025.
- Flint Hills Technical College received a $672,288 grant to launch a Precision Agriculture Technology program.
- AcreTrader completed its 15th full cycle farm exit, delivering an 18% net IRR and returning over $25 million to investors.
Bearish News
- Oklahoma’s drought left 67% of farmland parched, with cotton farmers seeking insurance payouts for lost crops.
- Mass deportation plans could remove 50-70% of farmworkers from US agriculture.
- Farmland values showed modest 4.7% growth in 2024, down from 14.3% in 2022.
- UK cereal farmers’ incomes fell 73% while dairy producers saw a 68% drop compared to 2022-2023.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Then what are people eating for breakfast?
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Richemont’s jewelry sales increased by 2% in H1 2024, led by Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels.
- LVMH took a minority stake in Mykita, expanding its presence in the $206.1 billion global eyewear market.
- Silver Scott Mines announced the development of the TRUSTnft Network, a blockchain platform for luxury goods authentication.
- Louis Vuitton opened its largest US store on NYC’s 57th Street, featuring its first US café and exclusive capsule collections.
Bearish News
- Tapestry and Capri Holdings terminated their merger agreement, with Tapestry agreeing to pay $45 million in expenses to Capri.
- Richemont’s operating profit fell 17% to £2.2 billion, with sales in China dropping 27%.
- Burberry reported a £53 million operating loss in H1 FY25, compared to a £223 million profit last year.
- Global luxury sales are expected to decline 2% in 2024, with the industry losing 50 million consumers in the past two years.
- China’s personal luxury goods market dropped 20-22% to €45 billion in 2024.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
A Louis Vuitton cafe? As if my coffee habit wasn’t expensive enough already.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Diageo created a new luxury division focused on $100+ spirits.
- InVintory secured $2.3 million in seed funding to expand its wine collection management technology into hospitality.
- High Basin Brands launched with a $4 million seed round and acquired Treaty Oak Distilling.
- Martell’s 72-year-old Cognac, housed in a hand-crafted Baccarat crystal decanter, headed to Christie’s auction.
Bearish News
- France will remove 27,500 hectares of vineyards due to oversupply, as wine consumption dropped from 120 to 40 liters per person since the 1960s.
- Thieves stole 3,500 bottles of wine worth $106,000 from a Kent vineyard.
- LVMH’s wine division sales dropped 8% in the first three quarters, prompting leadership changes at Moët Hennessy.
- US wine sales declined 4% in 2024, with premium wines over $100 falling 8.5% in retail and 12.5% in restaurants.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
With the number of family holiday dinners I have scheduled, I should be able to get wine sales up before EOY.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Prince’s blue Schecter ‘Cloud’ guitar, used extensively in his green room performances, is up for auction with detailed provenance from his former bodyguard.
- Hipgnosis completed a $1.47 billion securitization backed by 45,000 songs from artists like Red Hot Chili Peppers and Fleetwood Mac.
- The global music publishing market is projected to reach $10.58 billion by 2030, with digital streaming leading growth.
- Anthem Entertainment expanded its Latin music portfolio through acquiring Darell’s catalog, including hits with over 2.4 billion YouTube views.
Bearish News
- An unnamed artist attempted to manipulate charts with 40,000 fake album sales before Luminate rejected them.
- Sony Pictures Entertainment profits dropped to $124 million in Q2 due to reduced TV production deliveries.
- LeBron James and Netflix face copyright lawsuit over allegedly stolen Native American basketball film concept.
- Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund sold its entire stake in Live Nation, removing a major investor.
- German music rights body GEMA sued OpenAI for using copyrighted lyrics without compensation.
- Louisiana eliminated its $150 million film tax credit, threatening the local production industry.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
OpenAI lives by the “ask forgiveness, not permission” philosophy.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- De Beers CEO expressed confidence in concluding negotiations with Botswana within weeks.
- The platinum market is projected to grow from $7.45 billion in 2023 to $11.09 billion by 2031, with a 5.1% CAGR.
- Industrial silver demand will reach a new record high in 2024, marking the fourth straight annual supply deficit.
- Diamond exports increased 11.32% in October 2024.
- Ucore Rare Metals raised $2.4 million through private placement to advance its Strategic Metals Complex.
Bearish News
- TMC Metals was charged with securities fraud for misclassifying revenue.
- Lucara Diamond cut its 2024 revenue guidance by $60 million as high-value diamond sales fell.
- Gold prices dropped over 4% this week, heading for their biggest weekly decline since June 2021.
- The surging US dollar pushed emerging-market stocks and metals lower.
- Silver prices plunged below the critical $30 level, erasing most gains from September and October.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Silver is in critical condition.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- A Harry Potter Marauder’s Map fetched $299,250 at a record-breaking $6.8 million Propstore auction in London.
- Dr. Fink, Prince’s longtime keyboardist, auctioned a synthesizer from the Purple Rain tour estimated at $62,500 to $125,000
- Tony Gwynn’s final-hit jersey from 2001 sold for $30,000 in a memorabilia auction.
Bearish News
- Nike accused StockX of selling counterfeits and making false authenticity claims.
- The Boy Scouts of America was forced to auction off Rockwell paintings to pay for sexual abuse settlements.
- A US appeals court voided New York’s ivory ban for antiques dealers, weakening protections against illegal sales.
- Sports card indexes across all major sports declined, with hockey dropping 11%, baseball 8.35%, football 6%, and basketball falling 2%.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
I wouldn’t pay 300K for the actual Marauder’s Map.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Win.ai and Review.ai sold for $130,000 and $115,000 respectively, with .AI domains claiming 8 of the top 10 spots on DNJournal’s latest chart.
- Diamond.com sold for seven figures through Saw.com after an 18-month negotiation process.
Bearish News
- BlackRock reported multiple domains were used for fraudulent wire transfers, with criminals impersonating employees to redirect client payments.
- A critical vulnerability in Really Simple Security plugin left 4 million WordPress sites exposed to complete takeover.
- ICANN warned the .IO domain extension could be retired within five years if sovereignty shifts to Mauritius.
- Over 800,000 domains remain vulnerable to “Sitting Ducks” attacks, with 70,000 already hijacked for malware distribution.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Who knew Sitting Ducks were such a threat to domains?
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Augment.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
