Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date on alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Goldman Sachs sees 2.4% US GDP growth in 2025
- Real Estate: San Francisco home prices dropped 15.4%
- Startups: Instacart and Uber sued Seattle
- Private Credit: Big Lots’ PE sale collapsed
- Crypto: Crypto options hit a record $18B for year-end expiry
- NFTs: Mocaverse NFTs saw a 392% trading volume increase
- Art: Christie’s French furniture auction brought in $9.76 million
- Vintage Autos: Bonhams sold a Bugatti for $5.175 million
- Coins: A medieval coin hoard sold for $5.6 million
- Farmland: MN farmland with turbines sold for $12k per acre
- Luxury: Capri and Tapestry faced an investor lawsuit
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Cambridge Brewing Co. closed
- Film & Music: The Billboard Global Music Index fell 3.3%
- Precious Metals: El Salvador overturned its mining ban
- Collectibles: Thieves stole $315,000 worth of Pokemon cards
- Websites: Anthropic acquired Claude.com
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- The World Bank raised China’s GDP forecast to 4.9% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed inflation fell to 2.2%, nearing the 2% target.
- Goldman Sachs projected a US GDP growth of 2.4% for 2025.
- Houston’s GDP grew 5.4% to $696.99 billion, the second-fastest among major US metros.
- US holiday retail sales rose 3.8%, with online spending up 6.7% from November to December.
Bearish News
- Goldman Sachs forecasted weak growth of 0.8% for the euro area and 1% for the UK in 2025.
- US continuing unemployment claims hit 1.91 million, the highest in three years.
- Russia’s inflation rose to 9.7%, with food prices up 11.41%.
- Japan’s factory output dropped 2.3% in November, led by declines in chip equipment and auto production.
- Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted 5% since 2018, while US manufacturing grew 10%.
- Germany’s economy stagnated in 2024, with just 0.7% growth expected for 2025.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
Only when you review the year in its fullness do you realize how much has happened.
Stefan did that yesterday, and it makes for a breathless read.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Connect Real Estate launched a $90 million Water and Light Development in Marysville, creating a mixed-use complex on 17 acres.
- California home sales rose 19.5% YOY, with 58.6% of San Jose homes selling above asking price.
- Sagard Real Estate acquired the 260-unit Alta Green Mountain luxury apartments in Lakewood for $100 million.
- Vail Valley property sales increased 8.9% from January to November 2024, with interest rates below 6%.
Bearish News
- A Nashville office tower sold at an 85% discount from 2019 as occupancy fell to 50%.
- San Francisco home prices dropped 15.4%, with condos back to 2015 levels.
- UK homebuilder Vistry issued its third profit warning in three months.
- China’s real estate sales area fell 15.8%, while sales value dropped 20.9% YOY.
- Hyderabad saw a 24% decline in new residential project launches.
How to invest in real estate right now:
San Francisco retirees are clicking their heels.
Startups
Bullish News
- Tether invested in Arcanum Capital’s Fund II to back Web3 and Bitcoin ecosystem growth.
- AusperBio raised $73 million in Series B funding for hepatitis B treatment advancements.
- Coralogix acquired Aporia to boost AI monitoring capabilities.
Bearish News
- Israeli startup funding became overly concentrated in cybersecurity, capturing 42% of total 2024 funding.
- Instacart and Uber sued Seattle to block new worker protection laws.
- Japan’s startup stock index fell 11%, marking its longest losing streak on record.
How to invest in startups right now:
I hope nobody in WA was expecting a lift.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Butterfly Equity completed a $1.95 billion acquisition of The Duckhorn Portfolio, a top luxury wine company.
- Brookfield and partners acquired 53% of Neoen at €39.85 per share, advancing a €6.1 billion takeover.
- KKR and Bain Capital each submitted bids of over $5 billion for Seven & i Holdings’ non-core assets.
- Barings issued a $115 million loan to refinance the Renaissance Boston Seaport Hotel.
Bearish News
- PE firms fell $400 billion short on payouts to investors over the past three years.
- Big Lots’ PE sale collapsed, forcing going-out-of-business sales at 960 stores.
- Recent PE asset sales occurred at 10-15% discounts to internal valuations.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Who’s been waiting until now to save big at Big Lots?
Crypto
Bullish News
- Aave and Lido reached $70 billion in net deposits, covering 45.5% of top DeFi apps.
- Norway’s sovereign fund increased Bitcoin holdings to 2,446 BTC, adding 938 BTC since 2023.
- Crypto options hit a record $18 billion for year-end expiry, with $14.17 billion in Bitcoin contracts.
- Chainalysis acquired Hexagate, which saved customers over $1 billion with its security solutions.
Bearish News
- The IRS ruled crypto staking rewards are taxable immediately upon receipt.
- Jump Crypto paid $123 million in fines for manipulating Terra USD’s peg.
- Do Kwon faced US fraud charges after Montenegro approved his extradition.
- “Pig butchering” scams stole $3.6 billion in 2024, up 40% from 2023.
- Solana’s price fell 22% in December due to network congestion.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Still not totally sure how pigs became involved in all of this.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Jacob & Co. launched 99 NFT timepieces in collaboration with CryptoPunk.
- Balance.fun’s Pioneer Badge NFT trading surged to 74 ETH in 24 hours, with a 0.18 ETH floor price.
- Mocaverse NFTs saw a 392% trading volume increase, hitting a 4.15 ETH floor price.
- Ethereum NFTs generated $304 million in weekly sales, led by Pudgy Penguins at $54.4 million.
- Solo Leveling debuted its NFT platform on Avalanche, bringing the 14-billion-view franchise to web3.
Bearish News
- The SEC issued a Wells notice to CyberKongz for unregistered NFT and token securities.
- Two California men were indicted for stealing $22 million through NFT rug pulls.
- Pudgy Penguins’ PENGU token dropped over 50%, with floor prices falling from 36 ETH to 16 ETH.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Amazed that CyberKongz was not up to regulation.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Christie’s French furniture auction brought in $9.76 million, led by rare Japanese hybrid pieces.
- High-net-worth collectors spent a median of $25,555 on art in early 2024, with 91% optimistic about the market.
- Asian art markets grew as auction houses expanded headquarters in Hong Kong.
Bearish News
- The Hilma af Klint Foundation faced a hostile takeover attempt by gallerist David Zwirner.
- Israeli strikes damaged heritage sites in Lebanon, including Tibnin Castle and a 13th-century Mamluk market.
- A suspicious Monet sale surfaced on Xiaohongshu, raising authenticity concerns.
- Thirteen paintings from Argentina’s largest art heist remain missing 44 years later, with only three recovered.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
If anybody has any leads on the Argentinian Christmas Heist, email us!
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Steve McQueen’s 1969 Porsche 917K with Gulf livery was sent to the Mecum Kissimmee auction.
- Bonhams sold a Bugatti Chiron Super Sport 300+ for $5.175 million, the top sale of 2024.
Bearish News
- The UK may end MOT exemption for classic cars over 40 years old after public consultation.
- Thieves stole 12 luxury cars from Miami hotels, including Bentleys and Lamborghinis.
- A fire damaged multiple classic cars at a Lorain County, Ohio, commercial garage.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Has anybody seen my missing Lamborghini?
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- A medieval coin hoard of 2,584 silver coins from the Norman Conquest era sold for $5.6 million.
- The Royal Mint announced five new commemorative coins for 2025, including designs celebrating the Red Arrows’ 60th anniversary.
- A rare 1876-CC 20 Cent coin from the Carson City Mint sold for $870,000 at Heritage Auctions.
- The Sunset Collection auction featured an exceptional 1908 Indian Cent CACG MS-65 RD that attracted 20 bids.
Bearish News
- Customers reported higher premiums on rare coins at Blanchard and Company compared to standard products.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I was just wondering where I’d put my medieval coin hoard…
Farmland
Bullish News
- AGCO announced plans to reach $2 billion in precision agriculture sales by 2029, launching 3-5 new products annually.
- The USDA allocated an additional $300 million to support US agricultural exports.
- Minnesota farmland with wind turbines sold for $12,000 per acre, including renewable energy contracts through 2048.
- Korea developed plant electronics that use sensors for plant health and disease monitoring, aiding global food security efforts.
Bearish News
- House Speaker Johnson scrapped funding measures that included $20.78 billion in disaster aid for producers.
- Bird flu virus showed concerning spread, with 65 people testing positive and infections in dairy cow herds across 16 states.
- A Court of Appeal overturned compensation for farmers affected by bird flu culls.
- Proposed tax changes could reduce economic activity by $9.4 billion and lead to 125,000 job losses.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Anybody on the market for a wind farm?
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- The luxury goods market is projected to reach $447.3 billion by 2033, growing from $328.1 billion in 2023.
- Saks Global completed a $2.7 billion acquisition of Neiman Marcus, adding 36 stores to its portfolio.
- Franklin Resources increased its stake in Tapestry by 10.6%, acquiring an additional 15,585 shares.
- Tiffany & Co. opened its first Latin American flagship in São Paulo, spanning 4,000 square feet across two floors.
Bearish News
- Capri and Tapestry faced an investor lawsuit over their failed $8.5 billion merger.
- French luxury billionaires lost a record $70 billion in 2024 as demand weakened.
- Kering’s stock price dropped over 40% in 2024, with 50 million luxury consumers exiting the market.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Have we lost our taste for French luxuries?
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- US vodka sales reached $7.2 billion in revenue, maintaining its position as America’s top-selling spirit category.
- Over 1,000 customers were drawn at each location for Spec’s rare bourbon release.
- Christie’s Wine auctions achieved $2.6 million in sales.
Bearish News
- Cambridge Brewing Company closed after 35 years in business as younger drinkers failed to replace aging regulars.
- India’s antitrust body raided major liquor companies over collusion allegations with retailers.
- San Francisco restaurants reported red wine sales plunged by 11.9% in Q2 2024, while mocktail sales grew 1.8%.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
I knew there was something wrong with this generation.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- The global value of music copyright reached $45.5 billion in 2023, surpassing cinema box office revenue by 38%.
- Live Nation reported $3.8 billion in revenue for Q1 2024, with concert business growing 26% year-over-year.
- Major labels expanded their global reach as Universal Music Group acquired PIAS and Downtown Music Holdings for $775 million.
- The Federal Court of Appeal paused Canada’s streaming tax on major platforms until June 2025.
Bearish News
- Sony Pictures CEO blamed critics for Madame Web’s poor performance after earning just $43 million domestically.
- The Billboard Global Music Index dropped 3.3% as music stocks declined, with only 3 of 20 stocks posting gains.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Blaming the critics is an interesting way of deflecting.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- El Salvador’s government overturned its metals mining ban, opening new opportunities for mining operations.
- The battery metals market showed strong growth in 2024, with Albemarle and China Molybdenum leading the sector.
- Triple Flag Precious Metals acquired a 0.5% royalty on Argentina’s Tres Quebradas lithium project for $28 million.
- Silver prices are expected to outperform gold in 2025, with industrial demand from EVs and renewable technologies boosting demand.
- India’s diamond market is projected to grow 40% by 2030, reaching $120 billion in domestic consumption.
Bearish News
- China’s diamond imports fell 28% in the first half of 2024 as marriage rates declined.
- Atlas Metals failed to secure £15 million in funding, forcing it to terminate the acquisition of CMO.
- The average EV battery metals bill dropped to $510 from $918 last year.
- Gemfields suspended operations at its Kagem emerald mine due to market oversupply.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
True loves kiss is the only thing that will save China’s diamond market.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Austrian Post and Hackatao’s Crypto Stamp Art collection of 10,000 limited-edition stamps sold out, each featuring NFC authentication.
- A Colorado collector auctioned their Star Wars memorabilia, including a rare Obi-Wan Kenobi figure valued at $7 million.
- The sports memorabilia market reached $33.6 billion in 2024, with projections of $271.2 billion by 2034.
Bearish News
- Thieves stole $315,000 worth of Pokemon cards from UK grading company Ace Grading.
- An elderly woman lost $68,000 in a live-streaming collectibles scam targeting seniors in China.
- A $2 million Medicaid fraud case uncovered a trove of stolen Nazi memorabilia and Pokemon cards.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Why are elderly women making $68,000 purchases via a live stream?
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Anthropic acquired Claude.com and transferred it to corporate registrar MarkMonitor.
- Stable.xyz sold for $100,000 through Afternic.
- The global domain market is projected to grow from $2.35 billion to $3.47 billion by 2032.
- GoDaddy introduced custom checkout links with direct GoDaddy-branded checkout pages.
- XAI acquired Grok.com for its chatbot platform.
Bearish News
- Microsoft announced an urgent domain migration from Edgio’s CDN by January 15, 2025.
- Malicious emails now bypass secure email gateways every 45 seconds, while Remote Access Trojans saw a 59% rise in phishing attacks.
- Google’s algorithm changes forced smaller websites to lay off staff, with some experiencing 90% traffic drops.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Time to go back to the SEO drawing board…
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Alto.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
