Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: US consumer sentiment hit a 7-month high
- Real Estate: Home prices dropped in all 33 major US metros
- Startups: Zalando acquired About You for $1.1 billion
- Private Credit: ILPA delayed performance reporting standards
- Crypto: President Milei has allowed free currency competition
- NFTs: Pudgy Penguins surpassed BAYC
- Art: The MOMA announced a $500 million modern wing
- Vintage Autos: A 1959 Ferrari was announced for auction
- Coins: A Roman gold coin depicting Brutus sold for $2 million
- Farmland: US farmland prices fell for the 6th time in 7 months
- Luxury: Saint Laurent opened its largest New York boutique
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: The FTC sued Southern Glazer’s
- Film & Music: Dorothy’s ruby slippers sold for $28 million
- Precious Metals: Florida made gold and silver legal tender
- Collectibles: A Babe Ruth rookie card sold for $812,724
- Websites: FieldBots.com sold for $9,000
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- US consumer sentiment hit a 7-month high as gas prices dropped to their lowest level in three years.
- Auto sales reached a 3.5-year high of 16.5 million vehicles annually in November.
- Russia and India completed a $13 billion annual oil deal, with supply of 500,000 barrels per day.
- Household financial optimism in the US has surged to its highest level since February 2020.
Bearish News
- The US budget deficit reached $366.8 billion in November, 17% higher than last year.
- US jobless claims jumped to 242,000, the highest level in two months.
- The UK economy shrank 0.1% in October, its second consecutive monthly decline.
- India’s economic growth faced sluggish wage growth and rising inflation.
- Only 29% of Americans supported higher import tariffs if they led to price increases.
- China’s consumer inflation reached a five-month low in November, rising 0.2% year-on-year, missing expectations.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
Altea Highlights
Our Film I opportunity invested in its first two deals last week, featuring an IRR of over 100%.
Meanwhile, we’re closing Art Opportunity I and will soon announce our first acquisition — a Turner prize winner we’ve acquired for 40% below market rate.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Blackstone acquired a Tokyo office building for $2.6 billion, the largest real estate investment by a foreign investor in Japan.
- Dallas-Fort Worth is projected to be the top real estate market for investment in 2025, after ranking third in 2024.
- Canyon Partners Real Estate closed its largest US real estate debt fund at $1.2 billion, exceeding its target by $200 million.
- Houston’s luxury home segment recorded a 21.3% increase in sales year-over-year.
- A Vista, California multifamily community sold for $185 million, the second-largest single-asset transaction in San Diego this year.
Bearish News
- The National Association of Realtors nearly faced bankruptcy over $1.8 billion in potential damages from commission lawsuits.
- Columbus eviction filings surged 38% above pre-COVID levels, reaching 25,320 cases.
- French household wealth declined by 0.9% in 2023, driven by a 4.7% drop in real estate values.
- Home prices dropped in all 33 major metros, with Austin falling 22% and San Francisco down 10%.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Are metros becoming affordable?
Startups
Bullish News
- Gobi Partners launched a $50 million fund for Pakistan startups, the largest of its kind in the country.
- Databricks secured a $9.5 billion funding round led by Thrive and a16z, reaching a $60 billion valuation.
- Zalando acquired About You for $1.1 billion, creating a leading pan-European e-commerce platform.
- Language learning startup Speak doubled its valuation to $1 billion after raising a $78 million Series C.
Bearish News
- AllHere Education founder was charged with fraud for allegedly misrepresenting $10 million in revenue to investors.
- Tiger Global’s PIP 15 fund recorded paper losses of over 15%, placing it in the bottom 10% of 2021 venture funds.
- Scale AI was charged with a class-action lawsuit for misclassifying workers and wage theft.
- Geely-Baidu’s EV startup Jidu Auto’s deliveries fell 20.02% to 2,485 vehicles in November.
How to invest in startups right now:
I’m mostly impressed it took this long for a language-learning startup to take the name Speak.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Carlyle Group closed its largest credit fund at $5.7 billion, with $2.4 billion already invested across 25 deals.
- Affirm secured a $4 billion financing partnership with Sixth Street to fund over $20 billion in loans.
- South Korea’s PE market reached 136.4 trillion won in committed capital, with 1,126 funds.
- Bain Capital and Blackstone advanced to final bidding for Mitsubishi’s pharma unit, valued at $3.5 billion.
Bearish News
- The Blackstone buyout of Bausch + Lomb failed due to price concerns.
- PE firms called $130 billion more from investors than they returned to them between 2022 and early 2024.
- The SEC’s Division of Enforcement intensified its scrutiny of PE firms over fee calculations, off-channel communications, and expense disclosures.
- ILPA delayed implementation of new PE performance reporting standards to 2026 after industry pushback.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Interesting that the industry would push back performance reporting standards…
Crypto
Bullish News
- Coinbase CFO announced strong Q4 guidance with subscription revenue between $505-580 million.
- Texas House introduced legislation establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve, accepting crypto for taxes and fees.
- Crypto.com partnered with Deutsche Bank to expand corporate banking services across Singapore, Australia, and Hong Kong.
- Avalanche raised $250 million from Galaxy Digital and others for its network upgrade, reducing L1 costs by 99.9%.
- Argentina’s President Milei announced plans to allow free currency competition, including cryptocurrencies.
- Prosper acquired 7,000 ASIC miners from BITMAIN and secured funding to expand its Bitcoin mining capacity to 1 EH/s.
Bearish News
- The Supreme Court rejected Nvidia’s appeal of an investor lawsuit tied to crypto mining.
- A data breach at Bitcoin ATM operator Byte Federal exposed the sensitive data of 58,000 customers.
- Scammers used fake Telegram verification bots to inject malware that stole crypto wallet credentials.
- Kraken’s Australian operator was fined $5.1 million for unlawfully issuing credit facilities.
- Uniswap’s UNI token dropped 14% after Cumberland dumped $16.7 million worth of tokens.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Anybody get burned on UNI token last week?
NFTs
Bullish News
- Pudgy Penguins surpassed BAYC to become the second-largest NFT collection by market cap, reaching $772.5 million.
- Adidas unveiled its ALTS NFT collection featuring 20,066 unique digital avatars with 250+ traits and 80 digital wearables.
- NFTs recorded $187 million in weekly sales during December’s first week, with Ethereum leading at $92 million.
Bearish News
- A user reported losing $2.5 million in assets from their Ledger hardware wallet, including Bitcoin and NFTs.
- Research revealed major security vulnerabilities in metaverse platforms, allowing attackers to spy on private conversations and track user movements.
- Magic Eden’s NFT trading volume crashed to $154,000 from $3 million last week.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Keep your guard up, even in the metaverse.
Artwork
Bullish News
- A Nicolae Grigorescu painting sold for a record €365,000 in Romania’s most successful winter auction in five years.
- The Metropolitan Museum of Art announced a $500 million modern wing, expanding gallery space by 50%.
- The Museum of Fine Arts Boston’s 17 Old Master paintings are expected to bring up to $3.8 million at Christie’s auction.
Bearish News
- Christie’s sued a winning bidder who failed to pay €26.7 million for a record-breaking Chardin painting.
- Sotheby’s cut 100 staff members after November sales dropped to $533.1 million from $1.2 billion last year.
- An 85-year-old artist lost $135,000 in retirement funds to NFT marketplace scammers posing as art dealers.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Imagine waiting on a €26.7 million check.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- John Clay Wolfe discovered a treasure trove of 42 rare classic cars, including a 1953 Corvette VIN #5, one of the first three ever sold to the public.
- A 1959 Ferrari 250 GT LWB California Spider Competizione was announced for auction, and its estimated value is up to $14 million.
- The Academy of Art University Collection announced plans to auction over 100 collector cars, including a 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing estimated at $1.2-1.5 million.
- Bernie Ecclestone’s collection of 69 Formula 1 cars was announced for private treaty sale.
Bearish News
- A Denver crime ring traded stolen vehicles with a Mexican cartel for drugs.
- Thieves stole a 1973 Corvette with only 64,000 miles from a Benicia warehouse.
- Over 30 classic luxury cars were found abandoned and deteriorating on a Midwest farm.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Difficult to imagine an alternative fate for 30 cars left on a farm.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Stack’s Bowers Galleries’ November auction exceeded $30 million in sales, with a rare New England Threepence selling for $2.52 million.
- A rare Roman gold coin depicting Brutus, one of only 17 known examples, sold for $2 million at auction.
- A 1921 Peace dollar with significant double strike damage and reverse scratch sold for $8,400.
Bearish News
- Contracted divers stole 50 gold coins worth over $1 million from Florida shipwrecks, with 13 still missing.
- A farmer fell victim to cyber fraud involving old coins and died by suicide.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Time to break out the metal detector, I’m looking for another Brutus.
Farmland
Bullish News
- AgroLiquid announced the acquisition of Monty’s Plant Food Company.
- Pennsylvania invested $10.2 million to preserve 2,842 acres across 31 farms in 13 counties.
- The regenerative agriculture market is projected to reach $16.8 billion by 2027.
- The Ohio Department of Agriculture allocated $6 million to help preserve farmland across 55 counties.
Bearish News
- Australian farmland continued to show negative returns.
- Drought cut NWK’s profit by 48% to R69 million, with only 40% of expected crop intake materializing.
- Heavy monsoon rains collapsed a Tokion embankment, eroding farmland and threatening a nearby Sanwala village.
- Tyson Foods announced the closure of its Emporia plant, eliminating 800 jobs.
- Nearly $10 billion in farm aid is at risk due to House Republican opposition.
- US farmland prices declined for the sixth time in seven months.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Maybe not the past six times, but I feel good about number seven.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Tapestry completed a $1.5 billion notes offering to fund share repurchases and corporate growth.
- Hilton’s luxury portfolio announced plans to expand to over 500 hotels in 2025, including new locations in Costa Rica, Athens, and Osaka.
- Saint Laurent opened its largest New York boutique in Manhattan’s Meatpacking District.
- The global luxury market is projected to reach $405.8 billion by 2033, growing at 3.76% annually.
- Mainland China’s luxury consumers showed strong growth with average annual spending of RMB234,500, up 7% year-over-year.
- Lord & Taylor announced plans to relaunch as an online luxury retailer in 2025.
Bearish News
- Barclays forecasted Salvatore Ferragamo’s sales to decline 6.6% in Q4 2024, with operating profit dropping to 30 million euros.
- Ralph Lauren, Coach, and Gucci were linked to 28 cases of human rights abuses in their supply chains.
- LVMH faced court scrutiny over hiring spies to monitor a documentary filmmaker.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
I’m interested to see how the luxury world evolves under the increased scrutiny around human rights within manufacturing.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Full Glass Wine Co. announced revenue projections of $200 million by 2025 after acquiring Wine Access and Cameron Hughes Wine.
- The luxury wine market is expected to reach $50 billion by 2030, up from $28 billion in 2023.
- Royal Batch launched an exclusive spirits subscription service featuring rare and premium bottles.
Bearish News
- The FTC sued Southern Glazer’s for illegal price discrimination against small retailers since 2018.
- Rare whisky auction values plunged 40% in 2024, with sales volume dropping 34%.
- European wine consumption fell below 15 billion liters in 2023, hitting its lowest level since 1951.
- California vineyards left 400 tons of grapes to rot due to oversupply, with experts recommending the removal of 50,000 more acres.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
As if I didn’t already have enough subscriptions, now I’m paying monthly for exclusive spirits.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Dorothy’s ruby slippers from The Wizard of Oz sold for $28 million at auction, becoming the most valuable movie memorabilia ever sold.
- Create Music Group acquired a 50% stake in Enhanced, a dance music publisher.
- An activist investor acquired a major stake in Lionsgate, which owns a 20,000-title film and TV library that generated $892 million in trailing 12-month revenue.
Bearish News
- Music Licensing Inc. reported a $2.83 million net loss in Q3 as total assets dropped 65%.
- Sony Music pulled its entire catalog from Boomplay over two years of unpaid royalties.
- Cineworld announced the closure of six more multiplexes in the UK after landlords reclaimed properties.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
That’s a pricey pair of slippers.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Florida announced plans to make gold and silver legal tender for transactions, joining 11 other states that allow precious metals as currency.
- The US Department of Defense approved a $1.8 million payment to Ucore Rare Metals for the separation of rare earth elements.
- Gold hit multiple record highs in 2024, reaching $2,785 per ounce in October.
- Sotheby’s Magnificent Jewels auction achieved $30 million in sales, with a 10.33-carat Burmese ruby selling for $5.5 million.
- In Q3 2024, central banks added 186 metric tons of gold to their reserves, led by Poland’s 42-ton purchase.
Bearish News
- Sibanye-Stillwater’s net debt increased to $1,014 million from $642 million, with weak 5.01% gross profit margins.
- Base metals prices on LME showed negative trends as China increased aluminum production.
- A former Tiffany & Co. supervisor was sentenced for stealing precious metals from the factory.
- Minnesota’s new copper theft law could shutter the industry, according to a trade group lawsuit.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Purchasing my trip to Disney with a gold bar.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- The comic book market is projected to reach $26.9 billion by 2032.
- Jack Kerouac’s original Dharma Bums typescript scroll sold at Sotheby’s for between $300,000-500,000.
- A rare Babe Ruth rookie card from 1916 sold for $812,724 at auction.
- Hasbro announced a new Star Wars Vintage Collection 3-pack featuring Grand Admiral Thrawn.
- A Caitlin Clark autographed basketball card set a new record, selling for $234,850.
Bearish News
- Connor Bedard’s PSA 10 Young Guns card value has dropped 10.3% in the last 30 days.
- Nike’s limited-edition Kobe Bryant Air Force 1 release faced quality control issues with missing numbered tags on many pairs.
- The collectibles market showed mixed signals, with auction prices for key items falling 50% or more from recent highs.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Caitlin Clark is untouchable.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Onfolio Holdings completed an all-cash sale of its BWPS WordPress business for $780,000.
- Domain names with strong brand potential, like chat.com, sold for $15.5 million in just 18 months.
- FieldBots.com sold for $9,000 to a robot management platform company.
- ENS launched domain renting on Ethereum mainnet, enabling domain owners to earn passive income.
- Samoa’s .WS became the first ccTLD to enable mirrored domains that function on both Web2 and Web3.
Bearish News
- A network of 19 suspected scam sites lured dabba traders through WhatsApp and Telegram in India.
- Over 37% of new gTLDs were used for cybercrime activities, compared to just 11% market share.
- A new study found that suspicious Olympic-related domains increased by 300% during event weeks.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Turns out the Olympics inspire hackers, too.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Seeking Alpha.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
