Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 2.5%
- Real Estate: US housing market inventory grew 20%
- Startups: Blue Origin faced two serious rocket incidents
- Private Credit: Vista and co-investors lost $4 billion
- Crypto: Algorand hit 2 billion transactions in Q2
- NFTs: CryptoPunks rallied 35% in four days
- Art: The Louvre’s attendance dropped 45%
- Vintage Autos: Sotheby’s is auctioning a 1935 Mercedes
- Coins: A 1,500-piece medieval coin stash was discovered
- Farmland: Missouri launched a program supporting farmers
- Luxury: Chanel acquired a 25% stake in watchmaker MB&F
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Irish alcohol consumption fell 31%
- Film & Music: StubHub agreed to a $20 million settlement
- Precious Metals: A single gold bar is worth $1 million
- Collectibles: A Kobe Bryant trading card fetched $1.6 million
- Websites: GoDaddy’s share rose 68% since November 2023
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Goldman Sachs lowered the probability of a US recession in the next year from 25% to 20%, citing strong retail sales and jobless claims data.
- GDP in the OECD rose by 0.5% in Q2 2024, with growth accelerating in the US from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.7% in Q2.
- Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 2.5% in July, a 40-month low and the slowest pace since March 2021.
- The S&P 500 has rebounded more than 6% since August 5th.
- The baseline forecast is for the world economy to expand by 2.7% for the third year of 2025.
- Economic growth was surveyed including 2.8% growth in the US and 4.7% year-on-year growth in China in Q2.
- In Q2, economic growth was 2.8% in the US and 4.7% year-on-year in China.
Bearish News
- Government regulation costs are projected to increase to $300 billion annually as the administration rushes to implement new rules before elections.
- More than half of Americans think the nation is already in recession, with families paying over $300 billion in credit card interest annually for the first time.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary annual benchmark review suggests there were 818,000 fewer jobs in March, the largest downward revision since 2009.
- Social Security, healthcare, and debt interest drive 87% of projected spending growth from $6.8 trillion to $10.3 trillion between 2024-2034.
- Oil prices dropped over $2 per barrel due to potential Middle East peace and China’s weak economy.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Real estate investors scooped up one in every six homes in Q2, shelling out $43 billion, a 14% increase from last year.
- The Atlanta real estate market saw a 52.2% jump in housing inventory compared to 2023.
- The US has 19.3 million rental properties, with builders on track to add a record 518,108 new apartment units in 2024.
- Grant Cardone’s Cardone Capital closed a $150 million fund, buying a South Florida multifamily asset, expanding its portfolio to 14,000 units.
- Gahanna, Ohio topped Realtor.com‘s Hottest ZIP Code rankings for the second year in a row.
- The US housing market shows promise with a 20% inventory increase and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropping to 6.46% from last year’s 7.23%.
Bearish News
- 71% of California’s commercial real estate industry expects rising distress, particularly in the office market, in the upcoming months.
- Mortgage rates near 6.5% fail to entice buyers, as purchase loan applications drop 8% annually while summer home-shopping season concludes.
- The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against real estate software company RealPage, accusing it of allowing landlords to hike rental prices.
- 62% of American real estate investors believe they’ve contributed to high home prices.
- Georgia ranks among the top 10 states with the highest real estate fraud losses.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Who’s moving to Gahanna, Ohio?
Startups
Bullish News
- Bolt founder Ryan Breslow is returning as CEO and raised a fresh $450 million at a $14 billion valuation from UAE and UK investors.
- Insight Partners passed $10 billion for its latest flagship raise, eyeing an early 2025 final close.
- Grafana Labs completed a $270 million transaction, valuing the company at over $6 billion.
- Venture capital investments in MENA surged to $355 million in July, a 206% increase from June.
- UK-based live-shopping startup Tilt raised an $18 million Series A led by Balderton Capital.
- Chaos Labs, a blockchain risk management platform, bagged a $55 million Series A led by Haun Ventures.
Bearish News
- Startup failures in the US surged by 60% in the past year, with 254 venture-backed Carta clients going bankrupt in Q1 2024.
- Blue Origin faced two serious rocket incidents, including the implosion of a New Glenn upper stage caused by a handling error.
- Affirm‘s stock has lost 39.4% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500’s 17.9% gain.
- Palantir stock trades well below its all-time high set in January 2021, with revenue growth decelerating from 47% in 2020 to just 17% in 2023.
- Nearly one-third of VC funds raised in 2017 had yet to return any money to investors through March 2024.
- US consumer electronics startups secured less than $300 million in funding this year, the slowest pace in a decade.
- Ginkgo Bioworks shares fell 18% after a 1-for-40 reverse stock split.
How to invest in startups right now:
The AI craze seems to be losing steam.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- PE firms aimed to spend down $2.6 trillion in unused capital, with Silver Lake’s $21 billion Endeavor Group deal leading.
- Non-traded business development companies raised $21 billion in 2024, with Blackstone leading at $6.4 billion.
- Accession Risk Management closed a $1 billion financing with Golub Capital to accelerate growth.
- HarbourVest Partners closed its 11th PE secondaries fund at $15.1 billion, with $3.4 billion raised for co-investments.
- Charlesbank Capital Partners made GrowthCap’s “Top Private Equity Firms of 2024” list, raising over $18 billion since 1998.
- Blue Owl Capital-led lenders took ownership of Pluralsight, injecting $275 million and eliminating $1.2 billion in debt.
Bearish News
- Vista and co-investors lost $4 billion in the Pluralsight restructuring.
- Family offices slowed PC fund searches to 11%, down from 18% last year.
- PE firms spent $500 billion since 2018, leaving healthcare facilities saddled with debt.
- TPG is facing a $4.5 billion lawsuit from Endo’s trustee over the Par Pharma sale and opioid liabilities.
- Carl Icahn and Icahn Enterprises settled SEC charges for failing to disclose shares pledged as loan collateral.
- UBS liquidated the $2.17 billion Credit Suisse Real Estate Fund International, citing overexposure to office properties.
- Indiana Secretary of State Diego Morales issued a cease-and-desist order against BlackRock for misleading ESG investment returns.
- California lawmakers removed hospitals from a PE health deal bill.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Welcome to the big leagues, Charlesbank.
Crypto
Bullish News
- Algorand hit 2 billion transactions in Q2 2024, with daily transactions surging 104% to 4.7 million.
- Tim Draper led a $2.5 million pre-seed funding for Ark Labs, showing Silicon Valley’s crypto interest.
- Grayscale launched a new fund for AVAX, giving investors exposure to Avalanche’s real-world asset tokenization.
- Cryptocurrency fueled record ETF launches in 2024, with BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust amassing $20.8 billion in AUM.
- Crypto adoption jumped 6.4% in early 2024, reaching 617 million owners, with Bitcoin at 314 million.
- Bitwise acquired ETC Group, raising AUM to over $4.5 billion, with its spot Bitcoin ETF leading at $2 billion.
- Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, and 73 others applied for crypto asset service provider licenses in Turkey.
Bearish News
- Binance and former CEO CZ face a class-action lawsuit alleging money laundering and RICO Act violations.
- A judge ruled Kraken must face an SEC lawsuit for operating an unregistered securities exchange.
- Billionaire Ron Conway reportedly cut ties with a crypto super PAC after it backed a Republican Senate candidate.
- McDonald’s Instagram was hacked in a $700 million Grimace meme coin crypto stunt on the Solana blockchain.
- Gemini announced plans to delist Terra Luna Classic and other tokens, with trading to cease after September 20.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
How do you say crypto in Turkish?
NFTs
Bullish News
- CryptoPunks rallied 35% in four days, hitting a 28.5 ETH floor and $3 million in volume.
- Magic Eden announced the ME token launch through the rebranded ME Foundation, claimable via Magic Eden Wallet.
- Monster Lord’s first Meta Monster Card NFTs sold out on launch day, marking unique assets in Monster Metaverse.
- Sony launched its blockchain, Soneium, supporting NFTs and play-to-earn games on PlayStation.
- Colle AI integrated GPT-4.0, revolutionizing NFT creation and trading with AI-driven tools.
- A Florida court partially dismissed a class action lawsuit against Shaquille O’Neal over the Astrals NFT crash.
- CryptoPunks led NFT sales again with $3.58 million, making up half of Ethereum’s total volume.
- Stargaze launched “Atom August,” linking Stargaze and Cosmos communities, allowing ATOM holders to mint NFTs.
Bearish News
- The NFT market collapsed from $612 billion in May 2022 to $44.3 billion, a 92% decline.
- CluCoin founder Austin Michael Taylor pleaded guilty to wire fraud after stealing $1.14 million.
- SuperRare reported a 45% drop in monthly visits, with a 90% plunge since September 2021.
- The NFLPA sued DraftKings for up to $32.39 million after its NFT marketplace shutdown.
- A September 2023 report found 95% of NFT collections worthless, with 69,795 out of 73,257 collections at 0 ETH.
- Investors in high-profile NFTs like CryptoPunk #5822 saw their value plummet by millions.
- Gen Z showed higher vulnerability to investment fraud, with 31.16% of 18-24-year-olds reporting scams.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Time for Shaq to focus on what’s important: The General Insurance commercials.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Christie’s Hong Kong will auction Monet’s Nymphéas for the first time in 125 years, expecting $25 million to $35 million.
- The British Museum received a £123 million bequest in Chinese antiquities, raising yearly donations to £138.5 million.
- Laguna Art Museum’s Latest and Greatest exhibit showcased nearly 50 newly acquired works spanning California’s art legacy.
- Anonymous Was A Woman and NYFA awarded $308,000 to 19 women artists for environmental advocacy projects.
- The Louvre launched its first fashion-focused exhibition, featuring 65 ensembles and 30 accessories from the ’60s to today.
Bearish News
- Christie’s revenue plummeted to $2.1 billion in early 2024, down from $4.1 billion in 2022.
- The Louvre’s attendance dropped 45% between July 15-26, coinciding with the Olympics opening.
- ART/ifact Studios in Florida closed after seven years, owing $10,667.40 in past-due rent.
- Somerset House in London, home to work from Van Gogh and Monet, caught fire, with 125 firefighters battling the blaze.
- Mark Zuckerberg unveiled a controversial AI-like statue of Priscilla Chan, sparking widespread criticism.
- Global art sales dropped 4% to $65 billion in 2023, with auction houses facing legal battles and layoffs.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Anybody have $35 million burning a hole in their pocket?
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- The Monterey Car Week auctions saw 15 cars sell for over $3 million each, with an Alfa Romeo fetching $14 million.
- RM Sotheby’s is auctioning a one-of-one 1935 Mercedes-Benz 500K built for racing legend Rudolf Caracciola in October.
- Mecum Auctions’ Monterey 2024 event generated $54 million in total sales, with a 1969 Ford GT40 Lightweight selling for $7.865 million.
Bearish News
- A $1 million 1979 Ford Ghia Probe 1 concept car was destroyed in a fire along with its trailer in Monterey minutes after being on public display.
- Auction sales during Monterey Car Week fell 3% from last year.
- £85,000 worth of items, including two cars and a designer briefcase, were stolen from Whitson Prestige, a luxury car dealership in Newport.
- A 15-year-old boy was arrested after a break-in at Stonehurst Farm’s vehicle museum in Mountsorrel, leaving five vintage vehicles badly damaged.
- Vintage car collectors downshifted their spending in Monterey, with weeklong auction totals hitting $371 million, down 8% from 2023.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Might be a good time to get into some street racing.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- An 1876-CC Twenty Cent Piece MS65 PCGS sold for $690,000 to lead Heritage’s August ANA US Coins Signature Auction to $36.8 million.
- A collection of 254 Greek gold and silver coins is expected to fetch £1 million at auction in September.
- A 1,500-piece medieval coin stash was discovered during pool repairs in Germany’s Black Forest region.
- Almost 700 Roman coins found at Helmingham Hall in Suffolk are expected to fetch £75,000 at auction.
- A hoard of coins unearthed by a metal detectorist is to be sold at auction with an estimate of £75,000.
Bearish News
- 90% of sellers overprice common 1971 New Pence coins, ignoring rare 1983 2p “New Pence” error worth £1,000.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I knew I should’ve been a pool repair man.
Farmland
Bullish News
- Missouri launched a new program supporting beginning farmers, offering tax deductions of up to $25,000 per year for selling or renting farmland to them.
- The Great Lakes Region boasts 34,171 young producers on 24,691 farms, representing 12% of the area’s agricultural workforce.
- UK-based Grow Up Farms banked a $50 million investment from Generate Capital to advance its vertical farming operations.
- Arkansas Organic Agriculture Project boosts farming diversity, with certified organic farms rising 30.5% from 82 to 107 since 2021.
Bearish News
- The Kansas Supreme Court ruled against a hog farmer whose liquified waste pipeline trespassed on neighbors’ land and created nuisance odors.
- China launched an anti-subsidy investigation into European dairy imports covering 20 subsidy programs in 8 EU countries.
- The USDA’s Packers and Stockyard Division is actively investigating Tyson Foods, following plant closures and alleged antitrust violations.
- 74% of Ohio farm families experienced childcare issues in the last 5 years, with 86% caring for children on active farm worksites due to lack of options.
- The rise of autonomous farm machinery is presenting new safety concerns, especially for children, as younger kids are put in larger equipment.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
A liquified waste pipeline is tough to justify.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- The global luxury goods market is anticipated to cross $375 billion by 2029.
- Chanel acquired a 25% stake in independent Swiss watchmaker MB&F.
- FENDI Casa launched new flagship stores across four Asian capitals.
- Hublot unveiled the limited edition Classic Fusion Centenary WOSG Exclusive, with only 50 pieces available.
- Exports of Swiss timepieces rose 1.6% by value in July compared to the year prior, with the US market rising 11% and Japan growing 26%.
- Mainland Chinese consumers led the world in tax-free spending for July 2024.
Bearish News
- Capri Holdings (Versace, Jimmy Choo, Michael Kors) saw sales decline 13.2% to $1 billion in Q1 2024-2025, with a net loss of $14 million.
- Burberry’s brand perception is in danger as its market cap dropped 70% in 18 months and its dividend will be suspended in FY 2025.
- Sarah Jessica Parker shuttered her namesake shoe company, SJP Collection, after 10 years.
- Tapestry and Capri Holdings slammed the FTC’s attempt to stall their $8.5 billion merger, arguing it lacks teeth.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
RIP SJP.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Global travel retail beverage alcohol sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels, growing 21% in 2023 and 3% annually from 2018-2023.
- Beyoncé partnered with Moët Hennessy to launch SirDavis.
- The Royal Eagle Fund LP acquired a 5.5% stake in Doheny Road Spirits LLC, to support scaling production and expanding distribution.
- Royal Salute’s $140,000 Platinum Jubilee Collection sale at Dubai Duty Free set a 41-year record, boosting revenues by 15%.
- Heaven Hill Distillery was named the most awarded US whiskey maker at the 2024 San Francisco World Spirits Competition.
- Diageo’s Scotch whisky tourism saw a boom in 2023, with visitor numbers exceeding 1 million for the first time.
- India’s whiskey exports surged to $78.5 million in the first half of 2024.
Bearish News
- Jim Cramer warned that GLP-1 weight loss drugs are causing people to drink “dramatically less”.
- Scottish authorities warned about fake alcohol after finding counterfeit vodka, estimating 25-40% of global spirits consumed are counterfeit.
- Alcohol consumption in Ireland fell by 31% since 2001, with a 1.5% decrease in 2023 compared to 2022.
- Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits reported decreased revenue to $6.2 million and a net loss of $2.0 million for Q1 2025.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Next on India’s export list: CocaCola.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- A California appeals court cleared Michael Jackson’s estate to proceed with a $1.5 billion catalog sale to Sony Music.
- Primary Wave acquired the publishing rights of legendary composer and horn player Chuck Mangione.
- ADA announced a global distribution partnership with FTS Global Management.
- German concert promoter and ticketing company CTS Eventim saw its consolidated revenue jump 21% in Q2 2024.
- KakaoBank, a subsidiary of tech giant Kakao Corp, acquired a 14.99% stake in music streaming startup Naivy for KRW 908 million.
- Cloud Music Inc. reported strong financial results for H1 2024, with revenue increasing 4.1% year-over-year.
Bearish News
- A woman was arrested for allegedly trying to steal Graceland using forged documents, facing up to 20 years in prison if convicted.
- Skydance Media accused Paramount of violating their merger agreement by negotiating with a rival $6 billion bid from Edgar Bronfman Jr.
- StubHub agreed to a $20 million settlement with California for failing to issue timely refunds during the pandemic.
- Lionsgate pulled the “Megalopolis” trailer offline due to made-up critic quotes and apologized.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
So Megalopolis isn’t the great film of the 21st century?
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- For the first time ever, a single gold bar is worth $1 million.
- Blaze Metals, a Ghana-based precious metals supplier, expanded its market share in Africa and the Middle East.
- The global Gems & Jewellery market, currently valued at $409 million, is projected to reach $608.1 million by 2030.
- Metals Exploration plc’s share price is up 577% in the last half-decade.
- Green Technology Metals secured 8% funding and an agreement with EcoPro Innovation to become Ontario’s premier lithium producer.
Bearish News
- Israel’s Diamond Exchange reported a 33% drop in polished diamond exports in the first seven months of 2024 compared to 2023.
- Silver dropped below $29 due to a weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate cut speculation.
- Mexican copper output tumbled 40% in January-June 2024.
- Reports suggest Russian aluminum is bypassing sanctions and entering the UK market via third-party vendors.
- Police seek culprits behind 100% bronze statue theft and 75% of gold/silver stolen from pawn shops.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Wishing I had a gold bar right about now.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Babe Ruth’s “Called Shot” jersey sold for a record $24 million over the weekend.
- Sotheby’s and Fanatics have planned the inaugural ”Holy Grails” auction, showcasing over 40 of the rarest trading cards.
- A rare Kobe Bryant Upper Deck trading card fetched $1.6 million at a Goldin auction.
- The comic book market, valued at $15.5 billion in 2022, is estimated to reach $26.9 billion by 2032.
- RR Auctions’ Apple sale features 278 tech items, with a restored Apple-1 Computer estimated at $300,000.
Bearish News
- Nike and Jordan sneaker resales slowed, with Nike Dunk popularity plummeting 41% from 2023 to 2024.
- Police in Oroville, California recovered $1,500 worth of stolen Hot Wheels collectible cars from a suspect who was arrested.
- Adidas continues to slash prices of existing Yeezy products by up to 70% off MSRP.
- Thieves stole $300 and rare collectibles from Everyone Comics, marking the store’s second break-in, with losses estimated at 75%.
- Heritage Auctions sued the Atlanta Braves over a cease-and-desist letter questioning the authenticity of Hank Aaron’s memorabilia.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Lesson learned: never question the authenticity of Hank Aaron’s memorabilia.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- GoDaddy introduced a feature showing trending keywords in new domain registrations.
- End users purchased domain names up to $27,000 through Sedo.
- Amazon launched the .deal and .now top-level domains after an 8-year delay, with trademark registration until September 21.
- Ethereum Name Service (ENS) dismissed its lawsuit over the eth.link domain after the ENS DAO approved a $300,000 settlement with Manifold Finance.
- GoDaddy’s stock was featured as the Chart of the Day, gaining 68% since November 2023.
Bearish News
- Malwarebytes discovered a malware campaign stealing payment information from hundreds of Magento e-commerce sites.
- US law enforcement seized several domain names of the sports streaming site Streameast, which attracted over 15 million monthly visitors.
- Cybercriminals are abusing Google, Azure, and OVH to host websites spreading disinformation via Google’s “new info related to…” feature.
- QR code phishing rapidly climbed cybersecurity teams’ list of primary concerns, with payloads surging from 0.8% in 2021 to 12.4% in 2023.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
.deal is my kind of domain.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Sensate.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
