Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: US GDP grew 3.0% in Q2
- Real Estate: US home prices grew 5.4% annually in June
- Startups: Menlo Ventures and Anthropic launched Anthology
- Private Credit: KKR has officially acquired Varsity Brands
- Crypto: Crypto millionaires soared 95% to 172,300
- NFTs: Bermuda Unicorn launched a new NFT marketplace
- Art: Claude Monet’s Nymphéas painting to debut at Christie’s
- Vintage Autos: Monterey Car Week auction sales fell 3%
- Coins: A 1920-S Indian Head Coin sold for $312,000
- Farmland: A farmer now owes Monsanto $7.4 million
- Luxury: Luxury brands have entered the real estate market
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Irish whiskey sales grew 66%
- Film & Music: Cineworld cut rent at 101 UK sites
- Precious Metals: Royal Gold’s stock is up 17% year-to-date
- Collectibles: Lego’s first-half sales rose 13%
- Websites: Radix reported record premium domain revenue
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- US GDP grew 3.0% in Q2, driven by robust consumer spending and a rebound in corporate profits.
- The S&P 500 reached just 0.6% below its peak, with UBS forecasting a rise to 6,200 by mid-2025.
- US consumer spending rose 0.5% in July, keeping Q3 growth steady as inflation slowed to 2.5% annually.
- The S&P 500 has gone up 18.4% YTD, nearing a record high after four consecutive winning months.
- Russia’s economy shows solid growth despite sanctions, with H1 GDP up 4.6% YoY.
Bearish News
- Moody’s downgraded Israel’s credit rating to A2, citing risks of conflict with Hezbollah or Iran.
- Raghuram Rajan urged central banks to raise intervention thresholds during inflation risks.
- Nordstrom projected a 3% revenue decline YoY in the latter half of 2024.
- UBS raised US recession odds to 25%, citing weaker jobs growth.
- US credit card debt surged 5.8% YoY, hitting $1.14 trillion as living costs continue to climb.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link
Real Estate
Bullish News
- WalletHub ranked McKinney and Frisco, Texas as the top real estate markets for affordability and new homes.
- US home prices grew 5.4% annually in June, setting a new all-time high for the fourth month.
- Metro Phoenix saw over 5,000 residential deals in July, surpassing last year’s figures.
- Metro Phoenix’s housing market reached a buyer-friendly equilibrium, unseen since 2014.
- US house prices rose 5.7% year-over-year in Q2 2024.
- Cohen & Steers Total Return Realty offers a 7.75% yield, ideal for income-focused real estate investors.
- China has pushed to remodel its property sector, moving from presale to “sales upon completion.”
Bearish News
- CMBS delinquency rate rose to 5.43% in July 2024, with office delinquencies over 8%.
- Commercial real estate delinquencies hit a nine-year high in 2024; vacancies top 20% in job hubs.
- WeWork seeks to reject 81 leases to reduce its $4 billion debt since bankruptcy.
- Santa Fe’s Gerald Peters faced another foreclosure lawsuit tied to an $11.4 million loan.
- CMBS distress rate increased to 8.36% in August, with $1.7 billion in new distressed loans.
- Oregon and Washington joined a federal antitrust suit against Real Page for inflating rents.
- West Michigan Zillow listings showed price cuts between $5,000 and $25,000.
- Real estate mogul Brandon Miller owed $34 million in debt at his death, largely tied to a $15.5 million Hamptons mansion.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Great time to move to Kalamazoo. [Ed: is there ever a bad time?]
Startups
Bullish News
- Menlo Ventures and Anthropic launched Anthology, a $100 million AI fund for early-stage startups.
- Viggle AI secured $19 million in Series A led by Andreessen Horowitz.
- Starpath Robotics raised $12 million in seed funding, plus $500,000 from NASA for moon mining tech.
- WEHI Ventures launched 66ten, a $66 million fund for pre-Seed and Seed medtech startups.
- Swiss VC firm Redalpine raised $200 million for early-stage investments.
- Trunk Tools raised $20 million in Series A for its AI platform in construction.
Bearish News
- Chinese startup funding plunged 42% in Q2, with early-stage investments down 67% to $2.5 billion.
- AI developer H lost three of five co-founders after raising $220 million.
- GitLab shares fell 14.7% in Q2 despite raised guidance, impacted by the CEO’s health.
- Japan’s startups are struggling with growth due to a shortage of investors for unlisted companies.
- A Unity Software executive sold $110,000 in stock after a 16% Q2 revenue decline.
- Gene editing startup Tome Biosciences cut nearly all staff due to poor market conditions.
How to invest in startups right now:
Who is giving a company named Viggle $19 million?
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Private debt funds posted a rolling one-year IRR of 9.2% in 2023, ranking as the second-best private market strategy.
- Apax Partners announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in Veriforce from Thoma Bravo.
- Carlyle Group raised $2.8 billion for its largest Japan-focused buyout fund.
- KKR completed the acquisition of Varsity Brands from Bain Capital and Charlesbank.
- BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Multi-Strategy Credit Fund declared a $2.00 per share distribution.
- Oaktree Capital seeks equity partners for a multi-billion euro Dublin housing project.
- NFL owners approved PE firms buying up to a 10% stake in teams.
- Vista Equity seeks $1 billion in debt financing for the Jaggaer acquisition.
Bearish News
- India’s PE/VC investments held steady at $23-24 billion in H1 2024, but deal volumes fell by ~20% YOY.
- CT Private Equity’s NAV grew by just 0.8% in H1, despite profitable exits, with a widening discount of 37.6%.
- The SEC accused a PE firm of operating a $3.3 million real estate scam.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Welcome PE to the big leagues.
Crypto
Bullish News
- Crypto millionaires soared 95% to 172,300 as Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $50 billion in assets.
- Singapore topped the Henley Crypto Adoption Index 2024, credited to its progressive regulations.
- Ethereum whales have backed Mpeppe, aiming for a 150x return in the online gambling niche.
- IntelMarkets (INTL) raised $170,000 in its presale, eyeing a 10x ROI despite bearish sentiment in AVAX and BCH.
Bearish News
- Binance and former CEO Changpeng Zhao faced new allegations of laundering stolen crypto and violating the RICO Act.
- “Pig butchering” crypto scams surged in 2024, causing billions in losses.
- Toncoin dropped 15% after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s arrest.
- A Cambodian scam giant handled $49 billion in crypto transactions since 2021.
- Binance reportedly seized cryptocurrency from Palestinians at Israel’s request, according to industry sources.
- Bitstamp’s revenue collapsed over 70% in a year, reporting a net loss of €19.7 million in 2023.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Realizing I need to up my circle—I don’t know any crypto billionaires.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Bermuda Unicorn launched a new NFT marketplace focused on security, transparency, and ease of use.
- Trump’s new digital trading card NFTs amassed over 15,808 ETH in trading volume.
- The NFT market is projected to hit $231.98 billion by 2030, fueled by industry demand and celebrity integration.
- ONEPLAYR introduced blockchain and NFTs to football, using AI to create custom player NFTs and share revenue fairly.
- NFTs are transforming online gambling with true ownership, customization, and enhanced rewards.
- Blue-chip NFT collections surged over 20% this week, with CryptoPunks rising 33% to 28.50 ETH.
- BlockDAG’s presale raised $68.3 million, with plans to expand its ecosystem and launch on multiple exchanges.
- Bitcoin-native collectibles traded $3.8 billion in the past year, accounting for nearly 34% of total NFT volume.
Bearish News
- OpenSea received an SEC Wells notice, signaling potential legal action over NFTs being classified as securities.
- The FBI recovered $5 million from a crypto scam where fraudsters posed as acquaintances to lure victims.
- A report by NFTevening revealed that 95% of NFTs are considered “dead,” with average losses of 44.5% for owners.
- The global NFT market saw $380 million in sales in August 2024, down 40% from July despite signs of recent recovery.
- Crypto losses from hacks and scams reached $1.2 billion in 2024, up 15.5% year-over-year, with a 95% drop in August losses to $15.1 million.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Fraudsters are really starting to tick me off.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Claude Monet’s early Nymphéas painting, unseen for 125 years, will debut at Christie’s Hong Kong in September.
- The Allentown Art Museum agreed with the heirs of a Jewish couple to auction a 16th-century Lucas Cranach the Elder painting in 2025.
- The Teiger Foundation announced $4 million in grants for curators working on climate and social justice projects.
- The Allentown Art Museum will auction a Lucas Cranach painting at Christie’s, sharing proceeds with heirs of former owners Henry and Hertha Bromberg.
Bearish News
- A Florida family sued after spending $6 million on fake Warhols, accusing a Miami gallery of fraud.
- Valparaiso University’s museum director dropped his lawsuit to stop the sale of O’Keeffe and other works worth $15 million.
- Major galleries like White Cube and David Zwirner cut staff and moved to appointment-only models, distancing from the public.
- A wealthy donor’s note criticizing pillar designs at London’s National Gallery was found hidden within one of the pillars.
- San Francisco’s art market struggles against other cities due to high costs and tech community disinterest.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Just how bad were these pillars?
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- RM Sotheby’s Monterey auction grossed $154 million, leading all peninsula sales with rare supercars on offer.
- A 1969 Ford GT40 Lightweight topped Mecum Monterey 2024, selling for $7.9 million, contributing to $54 million in total sales.
- Rudi Klein’s rare “Junkyard” collection, including a Lamborghini Miura, is headed to auction.
- A rare 1965 Aston Martin DB5 Vantage, a 1965 Geneva Motor Show star, is set for auction in London.
- A custom, award-winning 1961-inspired, Corvette-powered roadster hit the auction block on Bring A Trailer.
Bearish News
- Monterey Car Week auction sales dropped 3% year-over-year, with just a 52% sell-through rate for pre-1981 million-dollar cars.
- Decades-old rare cars, left to decay in LA, are set to be auctioned ‘as-is’ in October, many needing major restoration.
- Toronto’s Sam Grosso lost ownership and thousands of dollars after police seized his legally registered 1960 Buick LeSabre.
- Cleveland police busted a ‘chop shop,’ recovering parts from a stolen 1970 Pontiac GTO and 1966 Chevy Impala.
- Used car prices dipped 5% over the past year but remain 25% above 2019 levels, with high interest rates keeping buyers away.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Imagine a Lambo being a part of your “junk”.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- A 1920-S Indian Head gold $10 eagle graded MS-64+ by PCGS sold for $312,000 at Heritage’s August 2024 auction.
- The 1787 DBLN New York-Style Brasher Doubloon sold for $9,360,000 in 2021, setting a new world record.
- Two rare dimes and a Bicentennial Quarter, each valued at $19 million, are still in circulation.
- The CDN Monthly Greysheet won the 2024 NLG Award for Best Price Guide.
Bearish News
- GoldIRASecrets.com warned against purchasing premium coins for IRAs to protect against scams and overpaying.
- The Anti-Counterfeiting Educational Foundation counterstamped “COPY” on 35 fake coins at the ANA World’s Fair of Money.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
The first ever stamp of disapproval.
Farmland
Bullish News
- The average price of Illinois farmland rose to $14,226.51 per acre in June 2024.
- The Teachers’ Retirement System of Louisiana announced plans to invest $150 million in farmland.
- Frederick County, Maryland awarded over $126,000 in Agricultural Innovation Grants, supporting eight agricultural businesses.
- The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index rose 8 points to 113 in July despite lower crop prices.
- Smithfield Foods sold a 1,371-acre former hog farm in Missouri at auction for $5.64 million, or $4,160 per acre.
- University of Kansas researchers joined a $10 million project to convert waste into sustainable manufacturing materials.
Bearish News
- Growth in farmland values slowed substantially, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Agricultural credit conditions continued to tighten in Q2 as elevated costs and lower commodity prices reduced liquidity.
- Record summer heat and drought withered crops in the Balkans.
- Data centers have replaced Medina County farmland as Microsoft expands, investing $500 million and reducing agricultural output.
- A farmer now owes Monsanto $7.4 million after flouting a seed judgment.
- Recent floods in Nigeria washed away 107,000 hectares of farmland.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
What’s more important, food or another Xbox?
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- The luxury goods market is projected to reach $593.02 million by 2030 with a 4.1% CAGR.
- Loewe, one of the world’s oldest luxury fashion houses, is joining the luxury lineup at Phipps Plaza in Atlanta.
- Chinese global luxury spending is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
- Luxury brands have entered the real estate market, with 700 branded residences planned globally by 2030.
- Tapestry Inc announced plans to open 100 new stores in China by 2025, expanding its luxury goods presence.
Bearish News
- Luxury retail sales in Macau dropped by around 25% in August compared to July, with marked declines in watches, jewelry, and leather goods.
- The crypto downturn has impacted luxury watch resales as Rolex watches now sit unsold for months.
- Luxury goods revenues remained flat in Q2 2024, the slowest growth in 15 quarters.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Luxury, coming to a storefront near you
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Ocean Fathoms partnered with Coos Bay to create an underwater wine cellar off the Oregon coast.
- Ukrainian vodka Mikolasch secured listings with five UK retailers within five weeks of its June 2024 launch.
- The global market for Alcohol Ingredients is projected to reach $3.9 billion by 2030.
- The Macallan has become the world’s most famous single malt with its £140 million building and record-breaking auction prices.
- Gnarly Head and Grateful Dead expanded their limited-release wine collection, adding Chardonnay with holographic labels.
- The sweet wine market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.1% from 2024 to 2030.
- Irish whiskey surged in travel retail, growing 66% in volume and ranking fifth globally in 2022.
Bearish News
- Pernod Ricard’s organic revenue dropped by 1% in fiscal 2024, with Cognac sales slipping 10% in China and US sales plunging 9%.
- A new study found that certain alcoholic beverages, particularly beer and cider, can raise the risk of developing gout.
- A man was charged for allegedly committing $50,000 to $100,000 in bottle return fraud at a Michigan liquor store.
- In 2023, per capita alcohol consumption in Finland declined to 7.4 liters, a decrease of roughly 20% since the 2005 record levels.
- In April 2024, 22% of millennials consumed both full-strength and no-alcohol beverages, compared to 13% of all US drinkers.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Apple cider cocktails are out this fall, everyone.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- The global recorded music industry increased by 10.2% in 2023 to reach $28.6 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth.
- The global music streaming market size is estimated to grow by $49.62 billion from 2024-2028, at a CAGR of 20%.
- Tidal launched new features that let artists track royalties and manage songwriting credits.
- CTS Eventim reported increased consolidated revenue growth of 21.2% in Q2 2024.
- Content Partners LLC announced plans to launch a credit investing division led by Alphonse Lordo.
Bearish News
- The NBA asked the New York Supreme Court court to dismiss Warner Bros. Discovery’s lawsuit over the Amazon media rights deal.
- Utah joined the Department of Justice’s antitrust lawsuit against Ticketmaster.
- Cineworld’s restructuring plan advanced, seeking rent cuts at 101 UK sites as the troubled cinema chain aims to recover.
- A videographer was robbed at knifepoint in New Rochelle after being lured on Instagram to film a fake music video, losing $5,700 in equipment.
- Sean Kingston and his mother pleaded not guilty to defrauding businesses over $1 million.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
So I guess there’s not attractive singles in my area either?
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Auric Mining’s gold sales surpassed $18.23 million, with prices reaching $3,727 per ounce.
- Royal Gold’s stock approached a new all-time high, up 17% year-to-date.
- A-Mark Precious Metals’ Relative Strength Rating rose to 82, showing leadership potential as sales increased from 7% to 13%.
- Following tax reforms, gold buying soared in India, with New York gold futures hovering around $2,550 per troy ounce.
- Gold and silver gained momentum, with gold at $2,515.83 and silver at $30.02, approaching critical resistance levels.
- The collective short position for market-making banks in gold reached a record high of 252,511 contracts.
Bearish News
- The average EV’s raw materials bill has dropped to $655 so far this year from $1,674 over the same period in 2023.
- The FBI and Sarasota County Sheriff’s Office reported an increase in senior citizens losing over $300,000 to a gold bar scheme.
- South Africa’s platinum mining industry has begun to decline, with Northam Platinum CEO predicting a 10% output drop in five years.
- Global zinc mine production fell by 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024.
- Gold and Silver broke key support levels, with Gold at $2,500 and Silver near $29.39, risking further declines.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Beware of fool’s gold.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Lego’s first-half sales rose 13% to $4.6 billion, cementing its lead in the toy industry.
- Elvis Presley’s gold rings are estimated to sell for $35,000 to $60,000 at an online auction in New York.
- Topps signed an exclusive long-term global trading card deal with two-time MVP Shohei Ohtani.
- A Wilt Chamberlain rookie card, found in an old grocery store, earned an SGC 10 grade, the first specimen to do so.
- McDonald’s collector’s cups featuring pop culture icons are selling for high prices on eBay, with the complete set going for $250.
Bearish News
- Kanye fired longtime Yeezy designer Steven Smith after eight years.
- Two masked men stole $42,000 of exclusive sports cards in Brentwood, TN.
- $20,000 worth of basketball trading cards were stolen from True Sports Cards & Collectibles in Rocklin, California.
- NFLPA sued DraftKings for $65 million over unpaid licensing fees from the discontinued Reignmakers NFT game.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
They nailed it with those LEGO plants.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Radix reported record premium domain revenue of $5.16 million in H1 2024, with .tech, .online, and .store as top performers.
- Sedo broker Mark Ghoriafi sold Solutions.com for $415,000, brokering over $1 million in domain sales in the past 8 weeks.
- IKEA launched a peer-to-peer resale platform called IKEA Preowned to become a circular business by 2030.
- End-user domain sales at Sedo went over $2,000 this week than average.
Bearish News
- Homeland Security seized StreamEast’s website and relevant domain names for illegally distributing copyrighted material.
- BlackRock is auctioning off Amazon aggregator SellerX after it stopped making loan payments.
- Data breaches hit one-third of global firms‘ SaaS apps last year, with only 32% of apps confident in data security, down from 42%.
- Scammers have created fake websites that look like popular brands to trick shoppers.
- India’s illegal online gambling market, worth $100 billion annually, is expected to grow 30% despite government crackdown attempts.
- Russian government-backed actor APT29 has been suspected of using exploits in attacks on Mongolian government websites.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
From IKEA you came, to IKEA you will return.
That’s all for this week
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Sensate.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
