Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Euro area GDP grew 0.4% in Q3 2024
- Real Estate: Zillow predicted 2.6% home value growth in 2025
- Startups: Robinhood announced plans to enter Asia next year
- Private Credit: Credit markets hit 25-year low spreads
- Crypto: Bitcoin hit $103,844 last week
- NFTs: November NFT sales reached $562 million
- Art: A Botticelli Virgin and Child sold for £10 million
- Vintage Autos: A Steve McQueen tribute Jaguar was stolen
- Coins: 1,368 Roman coins were found during construction
- Farmland: An 80-acre farm in Iowa sold for $19,000 per acre
- Luxury: Bloomingdale’s opened its first Texas Bloomie’s store
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: A 5.5L bottle sold for $150,000
- Film & Music: Reservoir Media acquired Lebo M’s catalog
- Precious Metals: A 1,100-ton gold deposit was discovered
- Collectibles: Two rare Charizard cards were found in an attic
- Websites: Epik founder Rob Monster faced asset seizure
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- HSBC projected the S&P 500 to hit 6,700 by 2025 with 9% earnings growth.
- China unveiled a CNY 50 trillion stimulus to boost consumer spending and social reforms.
- The OECD forecasted global GDP growth to rise to 3.3% in 2025.
- The European Commission launched a €3.4 billion clean energy and battery fund.
- Euro area GDP grew 0.4% in Q3 2024, with employment up 0.2%.
Bearish News
- The WEF survey revealed concerns about recession and labor shortage among G20 executives.
- ECB’s Lagarde predicted weaker short-term economic growth.
- Fed Chair Powell called US debt unsustainable as it surpassed $36 trillion.
- A Chinese economist questioned GDP accuracy, citing possible 10-point overstatements and 47 million missing jobs.
What are the odds?
Looks like China is taking a more hands-on approach to its current corporate & real estate debt problem.
DJT loves tariffs, and prediction markets think he will use them — a lot.
What are the odds he will impose tariffs on foreign trade from both friends and foes?
🇪🇺 EU – 65%
The odds of him placing “large tariffs” are lower, at only 60%, so maybe it’s only a symbolic trade war.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Blackstone secured a $1 billion refinancing as student housing rents rose 14%.
- Indus Realty Trust acquired 21 industrial properties, adding 4.3 million square feet.
- Florida voters tied homestead exemptions to inflation, boosting tax breaks for millions.
- Las Vegas home prices hit $480,000, with sales rising 14.8% year-over-year.
- Partners Group added Empira Group’s EUR 14 billion residential portfolio.
- Brookfield Properties bought 4,143 Sun Belt apartments from Blackstone for $845 million.
- Zillow predicted 2.6% home value growth and 4.3 million sales in 2025.
Bearish News
- Moshe Silber was banned from real estate after a mortgage fraud conviction.
- Multifamily CMBS delinquencies rose to 4.18% in November, up from 2.46% last year.
- Martin Selig defaulted on $240 million in debt tied to Seattle office towers.
- A West Virginia couple lost $255,000 in a real estate wire fraud scam.
- UK house-building saw its steepest decline since June due to high borrowing costs.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Where does this blind trust in wire transfers come from?
Startups
Bullish News
- Nebius raised $700 million from NVIDIA and Accel, eyeing $1 billion in revenue by 2025.
- Elon Musk’s xAI hit a $50 billion valuation after raising $5 billion from top investors.
- Israeli startups secured $8.1 billion in funding and $10.5 billion in M&A deals in 2024.
- HappyRobot closed a $15.6 million Series A from a16z for AI logistics expansion.
- Robinhood announced plans to enter Asia in 2025, with Singapore as it’s HQ.
Bearish News
- Robinhood faced a class action lawsuit over a massive data breach.
- Rivian ranked dead last on Consumer Reports’ reliability list.
- African startup funding dropped 29% to $180 million in November.
- Founders Fund saw its second major partner exit as Brian Singerman stepped back.
How to invest in startups right now:
A data breach one day, with a trip to Singapore the next. Never a dull moment for Robinhood.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- KKR and Baupost Group acquired 33 UK Marriott hotels for £900 million.
- BlackRock planned a $12 billion acquisition of HPS Investment Partners, adding $148 billion in PC assets.
- Temasek launched a $7.5 billion PC entity to expand alternative investments.
- Schroders Capital’s Global Private Equity Fund surpassed $2 billion in AUM.
- Valeas Capital Partners closed its first institutional fund at $600 million, raising total assets to $1.2 billion.
Bearish News
- Caregivers reported worse experiences at PE-owned hospices compared to nonprofits.
- Vistria Group and Nautic Partners faced profit-sharing orders over fiduciary duty breaches.
- Apollo’s Leon Black sold $173.5 million in Apollo Global shares.
- Credit markets hit 25-year low spreads, signaling potential risks.
- PE and VC funding in India dropped to yearly lows, driven by fewer large deals.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Can PE-funded hospitals make a change for the better or are they destined to be a bad fit?
Crypto
Bullish News
- Bitcoin hit $103,844 last week, marking a 26,738% return over 10 years for $1,000 invested.
- eToro planned a US IPO with Goldman Sachs, targeting a $3.5 billion valuation.
- Ten major institutions tested tokenized transactions with Citi and JP Morgan.
- Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin secured partnerships with Uphold, Bitstamp, and Bitso.
- Ethereum ETF inflows hit $428.5 million in a day, with Grayscale leading at 47% market share.
- Over 400 million crypto wallets now hold positive balances as stablecoin use surged.
- Hong Kong introduced a stablecoin bill to regulate and ensure stability.
- Grayscale filed for a spot Solana ETF, with SOL reaching $238.
Bearish News
- Uniswap’s potential Ethereum exit could cost validators $400 million annually.
- The SEC continued its lawsuit against Binance over unregistered securities claims.
- Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky pleaded guilty to fraud and manipulation.
- The CFTC recovered a record $17.1 billion from crypto enforcement.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Starting to think I didn’t make the most of 2014…
NFTs
Bullish News
- November NFT sales hit $562 million, up 57.8% from October.
- Yuga Labs enhanced security with Tokenproof’s ownership verification tech.
- Colle AI added XRP to its multichain ecosystem.
- Binance and Cristiano Ronaldo debuted “ForeverSkills” collectibles priced at $77.
- Illuvium and G-SHOCK’s collaboration generated $12.1 million since 2022.
Bearish News
- Nike’s NFT startup RTFKT confirmed shutdown by January 2024.
- A Brooklyn artist lost $135,000 to scammers posing as OpenSea.
- OpenSea faced an SEC Wells notice over NFTs as unregistered securities.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Who’s splurging on the Ronaldo collectible? [Ed: I am not]
Artwork
Bullish News
- A Botticelli Virgin and Child sold for £10 million after nine bidders competed.
- Hauser & Wirth closed major deals at Art Basel Miami Beach, including a David Hammons for $4.75 million.
- The Rijksmuseum launched an AI explorer granting public access to 800,000 artworks.
- Louise Bourgeois’ AI-authenticated drawing sold for $31,600 at Germann Auctions.
Bearish News
- UK art market share fell to 7% as new regulations imposed stricter reporting for dealers.
- A $500,000 bronze statue theft marked Montreal’s third public art heist in a month.
- Photofairs canceled its Hong Kong and New York editions for 2025.
- India Art Fair scrapped its November 2025 Mumbai event.
- Auction houses tightened historic sales record access under new confidentiality rules.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Anybody on the market for a bronze statue I found?
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- A 1970 Lamborghini Miura P400 S in rare Verde Miura green is headed to Mecum’s Kissimmee 2025 auction.
- RM Sotheby’s Paris auction will feature a 73-car collection, including a 1954 Bentley R-Type Continental valued at €2.4 million.
- Bernie Ecclestone’s $400 million Grand Prix car collection, including Ferrari’s first F1 winner, was listed for sale.
- Austin Powers’ ‘Shaguar‘ E-Type Roadster has been restored and is auction-bound.
Bearish News
- Progressive has begun to face legal challenges over disputed car valuation methods.
- A Steve McQueen tribute Jaguar XKSS, worth $625,000, was stolen in Austin, Texas.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Interested to see how Flo gets herself out of this one.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- The Royal Canadian Mint’s pure gold Dance Screen coin sold for $1.56 million at Heffel Fine Art Auction House.
- Stack’s Bowers Galleries’ November auction realized over $30 million, with three coins selling for over $1 million each.
- A rare gold coin minted by Brutus after Caesar’s assassination is set to go up for auction, one of only 17 known to exist.
- A treasure trove of 1,368 Roman coins worth over $125,000 was discovered during construction in central England.
Bearish News
- A hotel housekeeper stole $26,000 in coins from a guest’s room at the historic Plains Hotel in Cheyenne.
- A Florida coin dealer allegedly scammed $33,000 from a Kittitas County man through a fake silver coin investment scheme.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I have a bucket full of coins, surely one of them is worth $1 million.
Farmland
Bullish News
- The USDA awarded $24.6 million to advance agroforestry in the Mississippi River Basin.
- Oaken and Sower’s Legacy Farmland Fund announced a partnership to manage $500 billion in farmland assets.
- The North Carolina Tobacco Trust Fund Commission awarded $6.6 million to strengthen agricultural initiatives across the state.
- Scotland allocated over £660 million to support farmers and crofters through crucial payment schemes.
- Dutchess County’s Partnership for Manageable Growth preserved 5,000 acres of vital farmland since 1999.
- An 80-acre farm in Poweshiek County, Iowa, sold for $19,000 per acre, totaling $1.52 million.
Bearish News
- Cargill announced 475 layoffs in Minnesota, part of a broader 5% staff reduction after revenue declined.
- Late-season rain and drought caused cotton yields to fall below average across Texas, with 50% of dryland acres failed.
- MPs rejected attempts to overturn a new 20% farm inheritance tax on assets over £1 million.
- Farm debt repayment capacity weakened considerably in 2023.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Scottish crofters finally catching a break.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Chanel’s global revenue reached $19.7 billion in 2023, up 16% from the previous year.
- The North America luxury goods market is projected to reach $166.32 billion by 2032, growing at 7.07% annually.
- Bloomingdale’s announced plans to open its first Texas Bloomie’s store at the $2 billion Fields West development in Frisco.
- LVMH’s Luxury Ventures Fund acquired a stake in Norwegian luggage brand Db, marking its first investment in Norway.
Bearish News
- Salvatore Ferragamo announced a potential asset write-down of €70 to 90 million.
- JPMorgan downgraded Swatch Group to Underweight, cutting its price target by 25% to CHF 135.
- Thieves stole 66 Hermès handbags worth HK$10 million from a Hong Kong store.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Welcome to Texas, Bloomies!
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Power couple Gina Gallo-Boisset and Jean-Charles Boisset acquired Flora Springs Winery, their first joint wine venture.
- The global red wine market is projected to reach $135 billion by 2031, growing at 5% annually.
- Pennsylvania wine and spirits sales topped $3.18 billion in fiscal year 2023-24.
Bearish News
- Stoli Group’s US subsidiaries filed for bankruptcy following ransomware attacks and seizure of Russian assets.
- Wine Paris CEO warned of another difficult year ahead for the wine and spirits industry in 2025.
- The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 index dropped 2.5% in November, with 64 of 100 wines declining in price.
- Brown-Forman reported a 17% drop in Tequila sales, with El Jimador falling 16% and Herradura down 13%.
- Heavy rains flooded Sonoma Valley vineyards, disrupting operations in the region.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Ordering tequila shots not for myself but for the sake of the industry.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Global music copyright revenues reached $45.5 billion in 2023, exceeding worldwide box office receipts by 38%.
- Reservoir Media acquired rights to Grammy-winning composer Lebo M’s catalog, including Broadway’s highest-grossing production.
- Sony Music Entertainment acquired Cobalt Music and established a new Greek branch.
- The global live music market is projected to grow by $35.56 billion from 2024-2028, with a CAGR of 17.38%.
Bearish News
- Paramount’s $8 billion Skydance merger faced regulatory hurdles and potential job cuts.
- Only 13,500 of India’s 60,000 music creators were registered for royalties with IPRS.
- AI-generated music revenue could reach €64 billion by 2028, threatening creator income.
- Netflix lost an invasion of privacy lawsuit over its ‘Our Father’ documentary, paying $385,000 in damages.
- Toronto Film Festival’s primary screening venue faced potential demolition for condo development.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Condos feel like the antithesis of art, and this is exhibit A.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Geologists discovered a 1,100-ton gold deposit in China’s Wangu gold field with 138 grams of gold per metric ton.
- The global precious metals market reached $257.98 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $474.65 billion by 2030.
- Silver demand for solar technology now comprises 15% of total silver demand, with solar capacity expected to triple by 2030.
Bearish News
- De Beers implemented historic price cuts of 10-15% on rough diamonds amid slumping demand and synthetic competition.
- Mitsubishi Corp lost $90 million in a suspected metals trading fraud in China.
- Botswana’s economy may contract by 1.7% this year due to the prolonged diamond sales downturn.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
A great day to be a geologist.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- A sealed case of 1979 O-Pee-Chee Hockey cards containing Wayne Gretzky rookies sold for $2.52 million.
- A record-breaking Star Wars collection valued at £1 million is heading to auction at Wessex.
- A Tales of Suspense #39 CGC 9.8, featuring Iron Man’s first appearance, sold for $2 million.
- Distinguished Programs expanded its Fine Art & Collectibles program capacity to $125 million.
- Two ultra-rare Charizard cards worth up to £25,000 each were discovered in an attic among 48,339 Pokémon cards.
Bearish News
- A man was killed over a PlayStation 5 during an online marketplace meetup in Houston.
- A Kansas City burglar stole over $52,300 in collectibles, including sports memorabilia and bourbon.
- DC Comics’ move to sell comics at Dollar Tree for $1.25 suggests pressure on traditional comic retail channels.
- A local auction house faced criticism for selling Nazi memorabilia despite claims of historical preservation.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Guys, how many times do I have to tell you not to sell Nazi stuff?
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- A profitable SaaS business established in 2014 is available for acquisition on Flippa.
Bearish News
- Cloudflare’s domains saw a 250% increase in abuse by cybercriminals for phishing campaigns.
- Tennessee’s new age verification law faces legal challenges over First Amendment violations.
- ICANN lawyers refused to disclose client identities in policy-making processes, opposing transparency measures.
- Google’s site reputation update devastated affiliate sites, removing major players from search results.
- Epik founder Rob Monster faced asset seizure as debts accumulated to $300,000 plus interest.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Any guesses on what else is in store from OpenAI?
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at First National Realty Partners.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
