Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: China launched a 10 trillion yuan debt relief package
- Real Estate: WeWork cut its Boston footprint to three floors
- Startups: Waymo raised $5.6 billion in Series C funding
- Private Credit: TPG raised $6 billion for climate impact funds
- Crypto: FTX sued Crypto.com to recover $11 million
- NFTs: Lamborghini launched Revuelto NFTs
- Art: A robot-created artwork sold for $1 million at Sotheby’s
- Vintage Autos: A Ferrari F50 sold for $3.82 million
- Coins: A gold coin collection was appraised at $2 million
- Farmland: US corn farmers faced their worst year since 2007
- Luxury: Louis Vuitton made a $60,000 dog kennel
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Aged Bourbon sold for $107,715
- Film & Music: UMG sued Believe and TuneCore
- Precious Metals: Diamond prices declined in October
- Collectibles: StockX announced a CEO change
- Websites: OpenAI acquired Chat.com
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- S&P 500 surpassed 6,000, and the Dow rose above 44,000 as Tesla surged 27% to hit a trillion-dollar valuation.
- China launched a 10 trillion yuan package to tackle local government debt.
- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%.
- Hong Kong banks reduced lending rates by 25 basis points.
- EU approved a competitiveness deal to drive innovation and reduce red tape.
- Bank of America was upgraded to buy by Citi Research, forecasting a 15% ROE.
Bearish News
- China announced a $1.4 trillion bailout as home prices fell 10% annually for three years.
- Russia raised interest rates to 21% as inflation hit 9.8%.
- Trump’s proposed tax cuts could add $7.5 trillion to the national debt in a decade.
- Japan’s economic growth slowed to 0.7% in Q3 from 2.9% in Q2.
What are the odds?
All eyes on JPow to see if he’ll make another cut in December.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Blackstone Real Estate announced plans to buy Retail Opportunity Investments Corp in a $4 billion deal.
- Homeowners gained $147,000 in wealth over five years as 87% of metro areas saw price increases in Q3 2024.
- Manchester, NH led the hottest markets list for 10 months, with 3.5 times the national average in listing views.
- Trade Estate Group introduced tokenized real estate investing in Florida to lower property investment costs.
- DFW real estate delivered 7.9% and 8.8% returns over five and ten years.
Bearish News
- WeWork cut its Boston footprint to three floors at One Lincoln St.
- First-time homebuyer share hit a low of 24%, with the median buyer age rising to 56.
- Real estate commission disputes delayed closings over buyer agent fees.
- Office CMBS delinquency rate doubled since June 2023, hitting 9.4% in October.
- Home prices in Punta Gorda, FL, dropped 6.5%, the West Florida Coast’s worst decline since 2011.
- UK homebuilder Vistry cut its profit forecast by £50 million and reduced construction targets by 500 units.
How to invest in real estate right now:
WeWork isn’t working in Boston.
Startups
Bullish News
- Physical Intelligence secured $400 million from Jeff Bezos and top VCs, hitting a $2 billion valuation.
- Waymo raised $5.6 billion in Series C funding, boosting its valuation to $45 billion.
- London’s Emerge raised £56 million to fund AI-driven education and the future of work startups.
- Anthropic partnered with AWS and Palantir to offer AI models for defense agencies.
- Founders Fund led a $500 million raise for AI cloud group Crusoe Energy.
- CrowdStrike acquired Adaptive Shield, an Israeli startup, for $300 million.
- Peloton’s stock jumped 171% in 90 days after announcing a retail partnership with Costco.
Bearish News
- UK VC fund performance declined, with TVPI falling from 1.73 to 1.61 in 2023-24.
- Outreach cut 9% of its workforce, laying off 65 employees.
- Impact startup funding fell 28% to $37 billion, down 60% from its 2021 peak.
- Nio’s stock dropped 23.7% in October due to weak delivery numbers.
- Rivian’s revenue fell 34.6% to $874 million as supplier issues disrupted production.
How to invest in startups right now:
It’s nice to hear Waymo’s doing well after their car horn debacle.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Individual investors are projected to invest $1 trillion more into alternatives over five years.
- TPG raised $6 billion for climate impact funds, targeting $10 billion total.
- Europe’s consumer PE buyouts hit $16.1 billion, exceeding 2023 totals.
- Disc Medicine secured a $200 million loan from Hercules Capital.
- Apollo Global Management’s stock now outperforms 96% of other stocks.
Bearish News
- Up to $60 billion in credit downgrades are expected for companies like Boeing and Paramount.
- French authorities raided CVC Capital Partners in a corruption investigation.
- Healthcare PE dealmaking is estimated to drop 15% in 2024.
- African private capital investments fell 11%, with no large deals over $250 million.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Healthcare PE is still hurting.
Crypto
Bullish News
- UBS piloted a blockchain payment system for multi-currency cross-border transactions.
- Cytonic raised $8.3 million to develop multi-virtual-machine blockchain tech.
- Detroit became the first major US city to accept crypto for taxes and fees.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF reached $33 billion in assets, surpassing its gold ETF.
Bearish News
- FTX sued Crypto.com to recover $11 million from a frozen Alameda-linked account.
- North Korean hackers deployed malware targeting macOS crypto firms.
- California revoked BlockFi’s lending license over financing law violations.
- SEC sought to dismiss Kraken’s defenses in an unregistered securities lawsuit.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
If you’re working in crypto from a Mac, be on the lookout.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Lamborghini launched Revuelto NFTs with Animoca for use in multiple games.
- October NFT sales volume rose 18% to $356 million across 7.2 million transactions.
- Lufthansa introduced Uptrip NFT trading cards with rewards worth up to €3,000.
Bearish News
- UndeadApes co-creator was found guilty of $400,000 wire fraud.
- NFT sales fell 6% to $84.6 million, with Ethereum sales dropping below $30 million.
- Alibaba cut dozens of jobs from its metaverse division as tech giants shift focus to AI.
- OpenSea’s trading volume dropped to $136 million from $868 million in January.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Is OpenSea experiencing a drought?
Artwork
Bullish News
- Art Week Tokyo drew 80% international VIPs, with a strong turnout from Asia’s collectors.
- A robot-created artwork sold for $1 million at Sotheby’s, setting a record for AI-generated art.
- Sotheby’s announced its first auction in Saudi Arabia, expanding into new markets.
- South Korea relaxed post-1945 art export rules, boosting Korean artists internationally.
- Major Tokyo galleries opened new spaces in Kyobashi, reinforcing the city’s art scene.
Bearish News
- A Palm Springs art dealer murder case remains unresolved after recent convictions were overturned.
- The British Museum kept JTI sponsorship despite others rejecting tobacco funding.
- London’s art market struggled under new money laundering rules.
- In a brazen suitcase heist, a €15,000 statue was stolen from a luxury hotel.
- UndeadApes NFT co-creator was found guilty of a $400,000 fraud scheme.
- Ashmolean Museum spent £4.48 million to stop a painting from leaving the UK.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I’m not surprised AI art is selling well. Half the stuff I see at the modern art museum I look at and think, “I could do that.”
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- A Rod Stewart-owned Ferrari F50 sold for $3.82 million, leading a list of 30 supercars that broke the million-dollar mark.
- Kendall Jenner added a rare Mercedes-Benz G500 Cabriolet worth $280,000 to her vintage car collection.
- Canelo Alvarez’s car collection reached $8 million in value, including a Ferrari 488 Pista and LaFerrari.
- Ralph Gilles’ 2020 Porsche 718 Cayman GT4 with only 5,000 miles and upgraded performance parts went up for auction.
- A group of firefighters saved a collection of vintage cars from the mountain fire in Los Angeles.
Bearish News
- An abandoned New England dealership’s classic car collection deteriorated as vehicles sat neglected after a family tragedy.
- Seven Newark men targeted million-dollar homes for luxury vehicle thefts, selling BMWs and Land Rovers for less than $10,000 each.
- Thieves exchanged photos of at least 400 suspected stolen cars while coordinating thefts across five states.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Firefighters protecting what’s important.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Over 1,100 silver coins were discovered in a ceramic jar during a grave excavation in Tarsus, Türkiye.
- Heritage’s November US Coins auction is set to feature an elite 1856 Flying Eagle Cent PR67+, the finest example seen by PCGS.
- The US Mint announced a special auction of 230 privy-marked Flowing Hair gold coins with hand-signed certificates.
- A century-old gold coin collection was appraised at $2 million.
- Heritage’s World & Ancient Coins auction reached $7.7 million, led by a rare Caligula aureus that sold for $216,000.
Bearish News
- A Michigan coin dealer was accused of fraud and gambling away funds.
- Experts warn of rising fake coin scams in the US and urge buyers to use reputable dealers to avoid counterfeits.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Funny, I was just wondering where I’d left my 1,100 silver coins…
Farmland
Bullish News
- China introduced a new smart agriculture plan that aims to enhance food security amid climate challenges.
- The precision farming market is projected to reach $15.6 billion by 2030, growing at 7.9% annually from $8.5 billion in 2022.
- Connecticut’s Farmland Preservation Program reached 50,000 protected acres, with the state approving $9.4 million for additional preservation.
- Minnesota received $10 million in USDA funding to protect high-quality agricultural land.
- The historic Sandy Point Farm in Portsmouth sold for $2.3 million.
- The USDA awarded $33.5 million in grants across 43 states to strengthen local and regional food systems.
Bearish News
- Northern Ireland farmers faced tax relief cuts and increased employer costs of at least £615 per worker.
- Denmark’s new “carbon tax” on agriculture primarily targets livestock methane emissions, missing fossil fuels and nitrogen fertilizers.
- San Joaquin Valley land values dropped by 50% for almond orchards and vineyards due to groundwater restrictions.
- Crop insurance harvest prices fell sharply, with soybeans down $1.52 and corn down 50¢ from base prices.
- US maize farmers faced their worst year since 2007, with prices below $4 per bushel.
- Vertical farming startup Bowery shut down operations and laid off 83 workers despite a previous $2.3 billion valuation.
- US irrigated farmland decreased by 2.8 million acres between 2018 and 2023.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Looks like vertical farming has gone sideways.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Louis Vuitton expanded into the pet market with a new collection featuring a $60,000 kennel designed by Pharrell Williams.
- LVMH Luxury Ventures acquired a stake in Our Legacy, which grew its revenue to €40 million in 2024, up from €8 million in 2021.
- Manolo Blahnik opened its first store in Shanghai, expanding its Asian presence with additional locations planned in Hong Kong.
- The global luxury fashion market is expected to reach $315.88 billion by 2029.
- Prada opened its first Michigan store at Somerset Collection, joining other luxury retailers like Gucci and Dior.
Bearish News
- Richemont’s operating profit fell 17% to £2.21 billion, missing analyst forecasts of £2.45 billion.
- Luxury advent calendar scammers targeted consumers with fake Space NK ads, attempting to sell £250 calendars for £28.99.
- Ultra-wealthy consumers abandoned luxury brands in favor of travel experiences.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Who is on the market for a £250 advent calendar?
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- A Van Winkle 18-year-old Bourbon sold for $107,715, setting a record for the most expensive post-Prohibition Bourbon.
- WineChain expanded its portfolio with 1,200 fine wines through a partnership with Alto.
- Speyside Capital opened access to Scotch whiskey barrel investments for US investors through a new turnkey solution.
- Scottish producer Gin Bothy secured significant investment from Neace Ventures and Dark Blue Property Holdings.
- Familia Torres released a rare ex-cellar collection featuring vintages from 1989 to 2013.
Bearish News
- Chicago announced a 34% beer and 35% spirits tax hike, adding to the city’s already high alcohol taxes.
- MGP Ingredients announced plans to scale down whiskey production after sales plunged by 24% in Q3.
- Burglars stole €60,000 of fine wine from a Paris restaurant, part of a growing trend of wine thefts.
- California growers will need to remove 30,000 to 40,000 acres of vines due to oversupply and declining wine consumption.
- Overall, alcohol volumes fell 3% in the first seven months of 2024, with declines across tequila, whiskey, beer, and wine categories.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Sounds like I’m visiting Chicago sober.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- IPR.VC raised over $220 million across three funds and renewed its partnership with A24 for upcoming films.
- Duetti secured $114 million in funding, including an $80 million asset-backed securitization backed by music rights catalogs.
- The global music recording market is projected to reach $78.94 billion by 2028, with a 7.3% annual growth rate.
Bearish News
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
When was the last time you saw a movie in theaters?
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Pan American Silver received approval to sell La Arena mine to Zijin Mining for $245 million plus royalties.
- The precious metals market is expected to reach $474.65 billion by 2030, growing at a 9.1% CAGR from 2023.
- Phoenix Tailings announced plans to produce 3,000 tons of rare earth metals by 2026.
- Botswana’s new president announced plans to finalize diamond sales agreement with De Beers, securing 50% of Debswana’s output.
- Latin Metals secured 71% ownership of the Cerro Bayo gold-silver properties in Argentina.
Bearish News
- Mountain Province Diamonds reported a C$18.6 million loss as diamond sales dropped 13%.
- Perth Mint’s gold sales dropped 44% in October to 29,935 ounces.
- Diamond prices continued their decline in October, with 1-carat stones falling 1.5%.
- Gahcho Kué mine’s earnings fell to C$17.3 million in Q3, down from C$25.1 million last year.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Diamond prices are falling sharply.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- The stolen ruby slippers from “The Wizard of Oz” are heading to auction after recovery from a 2005 theft.
- A Star Wars memorabilia auction in Stockton-on-Tees generated £177,000.
Bearish News
- A $3.72 million Wayne Gretzky rookie card case sale fell through after the buyer failed to pay.
- Thieves stole $60,000 in rare collectibles from a Kansas City business, including valuable Jordan and Gretzky cards.
- StockX announced a CEO change during declining sneaker resale market conditions.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
The slippers made their way home.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- “AI” remained the most searched keyword on Sedo’s marketplace throughout 2024.
- OpenAI acquired Chat.com, previously sold for $15.5 million in 2023.
- Grit Brokerage completed several major sales including UC.com and Young.com, ranking among the top 5 global domain brokerages.
- Tucows reported a 6% increase in domain revenue to $55.0 million in Q3, with domain management reaching 24.6 million.
Bearish News
- A fraudulent website posing as the MHS Genesis Patient Portal attempted to steal military health data.
- The WordPress Foundation accused WP Engine of confusing users and never donating despite billions in revenue.
- Flipkart was found guilty of reverse domain hijacking after attempting to seize a domain registered 10 years before its brand.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
I feel like a psychic, I’ve been typing in chat.com for months assuming that was the URL.
That’s all for this week…
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Mainshares.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
