Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: The Federal Reserve cut its rate by 0.5%
- Real Estate: Mortgage rates dropped to 6.09%
- Startups: Germany invested €12 billion in startups
- Private Credit: 97% of Family Offices expect positive returns
- Crypto: Crypto gained 62 million new users in 2023
- NFTs: NFT sales dropped 7.91% last week
- Art: China’s fine-art auction sales dropped 49% in H1 2024
- Vintage Autos: Burt Reynolds’ 1978 Trans Am failed to sell
- Coins: A 1496 King Hans Gold Noble sold for €1.2 million
- Farmland: China had a net farmland increase for three years
- Luxury: Swiss watch exports fell by 125,000 units in August
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Craft spirits sales declined
- Film & Music: Lionsgate struck a deal with AI firm Runway
- Precious Metals: New Jersey waived sales tax on gold, silver
- Collectibles: Caitlin Clark’s signed card sold for $84,000
- Websites: Tipless.com sold for $15,000
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.5%, marking the first and largest cut since March 2020.
- California’s greenhouse gas emissions fell 2.4% in 2022, equal to removing 2.2 million gas cars for a year.
- The US Energy Department announced plans to award $3 billion to 25 battery manufacturing projects across 14 states.
- Rhode Island ended the 2023-24 budget year with a $292 million surplus, exceeding expectations by $13 million.
- Hedge fund Citadel hired three new portfolio managers to expand its Global Fixed Income and Macro team.
Bearish News
- China’s fiscal revenue declined 2.6% in the first eight months of 2024.
- UK government debt hit 100% of GDP for the first time in recent history.
- UK inflation remained at 2.2% in August, above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
- UBS lost a $2.8 billion advisor team to RBC Wealth Management.
What are the odds?
Pretty pretty good.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Mortgage rates dropped to 6.09%, the lowest in 18 months.
- Blackstone issued an $81.5 million loan to refinance 16 industrial properties.
- Mortgage rates fell to 6.31%, spurring a 25% rise in applications for home purchases and refinancing.
- San Diego’s multifamily market shifted, with landlords offering two months’ free rent to attract tenants.
- The median home price reached $416,700, up 3.1% from last year despite slow sales.
Bearish News
- Existing home sales fell 2.5% in August, hitting the lowest rate since October 2023.
- First-time buyers accounted for just 26% of August sales, tying the all-time low.
- Boston’s rental market cooled, with units on the market 12% longer than last year.
- Built-to-rent homes made up just 7.9% of new builds, failing to ease the housing shortage.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Built-to-rent is my new Instagram bio.
Startups
Bullish News
- Alan hit a $4.5 billion valuation after raising $193 million in a Series F led by Belfius.
- Germany announced plans to invest €12 billion by 2030 to strengthen its startup ecosystem and venture capital scene.
- Insight Partners closed in on $10 billion for its 13th fund, planning to invest in 25 companies.
- Capmont Technology launched a $111 million fund focused on late-seed to Series B B2B tech startups.
- z21 Ventures closed $20 million of its $40 million Fund II, with WestBridge Capital as the anchor investor.
Bearish News
- Venture funding to Black-founded US startups dropped 60% in H1 2024, totaling $228 million.
- Ginkgo Bioworks’ AI offerings have begun to face stiff competition and a declining share price.
- Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest continued selling shares of Robinhood and Palantir despite falling interest rates.
- A hacker responsible for breaching 165 companies is still at large.
How to invest in startups right now:
I’ve been looking for an excuse to move to Berlin.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Apollo Global Management secured a $5 billion commitment from BNP Paribas to expand its lending business.
- Family offices showed optimism, with 97% expecting positive returns and 47% planning to boost PE allocations in the next year.
- BlackRock restructured its PC business, launching a Global Direct Lending division to lead in growth debt worldwide.
- Harbour Investment Partners announced new avenues for investors to explore PE in the technology, healthcare, and renewable energy sectors.
Bearish News
- The share of B-minus-rated borrowers in the syndicated loan market dropped to 25%.
- Hedge fund fundraising struggled due to PE issues, with limited distributions reducing available capital.
- Moody’s cut its ratings outlook from stable to negative for the direct lending funds of Oaktree, BlackRock, KKR, and FS Investments.
- S&P reported middle-market credit defaults and downgrades reached multi-year highs.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Moody is having doubts.
Crypto
Bullish News
- Institutional players boosted crypto adoption in South Korea and Hong Kong, with South Korea’s transaction value nearing $130 billion.
- The crypto industry gained 62 million new users in 2023, despite 43% finding it too complex.
- A Binance executive claimed the US election will have little impact on global crypto regulations.
Bearish News
- An $80 million crypto fund founder mysteriously disappeared in China, prompting a fund wind-down vote.
- BlackRock updated its Coinbase custody deal, now requiring 12-hour withdrawals.
- The FBI arrested two individuals for stealing $230 million in crypto through social engineering.
- BingX crypto exchange lost $43 million in a major hack, exposing ongoing security flaws.
- XRP slipped to $0.58 after Ripple’s legal officer discussed the SEC’s lawsuit loss.
- Prager Metis agreed to pay nearly $2 million for failed audits, including FTX.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Who is this 67% who find crypto a breeze?
NFTs
Bullish News
- Infinex’s new NFT collection generated over $40 million in four days.
- A trader bought a rare CryptoPunk NFT for 10 ETH, previously valued at $1.5 million.
- Larva Labs announced the auction of “Autoglyph 30” to benefit ocean conservation.
- Anryton launched its Layer One network and DNA NFTs.
- DeLorean Motor Company partnered with Animoca Brands to bring DeLorean cars to gaming as NFTs.
Bearish News
- The SEC fined Flyfish Club $750,000 for unregistered NFT offerings.
- Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz dismissed the SEC’s crackdown as “nonsense.”
- NFT sales dropped 7.91% last week to $74.86 million due to fewer buyers and sellers.
- OpenSea was hit with a class action lawsuit in Miami for allegedly misleading statements about NFTs and securities.
- Coinbase’s Base network smart contracts had over 34,000 high-risk vulnerabilities, including malicious boolean checks.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Pudgy Penguin tells it how it is.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips opened new Asia headquarters in Hong Kong to expand their regional presence.
- Sydell Miller’s $200 million art collection will be auctioned at Sotheby’s New York in November.
- Christie’s announced the auction of Magritte’s “L’empire des lumières,” estimated at over $95 million.
- In Munich, Bavaria acquired Picasso’s “Woman with a Violin” (1911) for the Pinakothek der Moderne.
Bearish News
- Britain’s art market has begun to struggle with post-Brexit taxes and anti-money laundering regulations.
- China’s fine-art auction sales dropped 49% to $825 million in H1 2024.
- Global art sales increased only 1-3% last year.
- A Detroit gallery owner was sentenced to over 5 years for defrauding collectors of $1.6 million in fine art.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Who is showing up for the L’empire des lumières auction?
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- An urban explorer found a hidden collection of vintage cars, including the unique Nardi Silver Ray, in an abandoned barn.
- RM Sotheby’s announced a rare European exotic car auction featuring a 1956 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing worth millions.
- A rare 2022 Aston Martin Valkyrie with fewer than 100 miles is expected to fetch up to $3 million at RM Sotheby’s upcoming auction.
- A 2006 Lamborghini Murciélago roadster with only 8,000 miles hit the auction block on Bring a Trailer.
Bearish News
- UK classic car auctions disappointed as high-end vehicles underperformed, exemplified by a 1933 MG K3 selling below estimates.
- Burt Reynolds’ restored 1978 Trans Am, featuring cutting-edge technology, failed to sell at auction due to an unmet reserve price.
- EU car sales plunged more than 18% in August from a year earlier, with fully electric vehicle sales dropping 44%.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
How does one become an “urban explorer”?
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- The L. E. Bruun Collection auction realized over $16.5 million, with a Danish 1496 King Hans Gold Noble selling for a record €1.2 million.
- Dr. Seuss Enterprises approved the depiction of famous characters on legal tender collector coins for the first time.
- New Jersey passed a law exempting investment metal bullion and certain coins from sales and use tax, effective January 1, 2025.
- Japan celebrated Godzilla’s cinematic legacy with 2024 annual Brilliant Uncirculated and Proof coin sets.
- A rare 1652 New England threepence, one of only three known coins of its kind, is expected to fetch over $1 million in November.
Bearish News
- Australia faced coin distribution problems after a warehouse worker stole bags of commemorative Bluey coins.
- A LaPaz man was arrested for allegedly paying with counterfeit $1 silver coins at a local business.
- A former US Postal Service employee in Northbridge stole rare coins, selling some on Craigslist for $3,500.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Anyone interested in a Godzilla coin?
Farmland
Bullish News
- The USDA awarded $35 million in grants to boost US meat and poultry processing, supporting 15 processors across 12 states.
- China saw a net increase in farmland for three consecutive years, adding 1.17 million hectares since 2021.
- The average value of US farm real estate reached $4,170 per acre in 2024, a 40% increase over the past decade.
- AVPL International launched a campaign to bring drone technology to 140 million Indian farmers.
- Farmland prices stayed high despite low commodity prices, with some areas seeing sales exceeding $15,000 per acre.
- Experts from the Faculty of Chemistry at Brno University of Technology partnered with NATO to restore Ukraine’s war-damaged farmland.
Bearish News
- Corn prices dropped over 1% during seasonal harvest pressure, with December futures falling to $4.01.
- Farmers will not be able to use dicamba herbicides in 2025 unless the EPA approves new registrations soon.
- Floods in 14 African nations displaced 4 million people, killed 1,000, and destroyed crops, deepening the food crisis.
- Congress is unlikely to pass a new Farm Bill before the September 30 deadline, extending the 2018 bill for another year.
- Congress approved legislation expanding federal control over farmland sales to Chinese firms, potentially restricting farmers’ market choices.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Interested to see what Drone Farming looks like.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Nearly half of all new luxury store openings in the past year were in malls, according to JLL.
- Christie’s announced an online single-owner sale featuring hundreds of designer handbags.
- Chanel purchased a building on Avenue Montaigne in Paris, continuing its real estate acquisition strategy.
- The luxury watch market expanded to new demographics, including female, millennial, and Gen Z consumers.
- Louis Vuitton transformed its iconic 136-year-old Damier pattern into a new fine jewelry collection.
Bearish News
- Louis Vuitton was hit with a racial discrimination lawsuit for allegedly blacklisting high-spending Black customers.
- Swiss watch exports fell by 125,000 units in August compared to last year, with steel watches declining 10.5% in volume.
- Luxury sales in mainland China dropped by approximately 10% so far this year.
- A judge questioned the validity of an antitrust lawsuit against Hermès over its Birkin bag sales practices.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Make America Mall Again
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- The Macallan released TIME SPACE, a $190,000 dual-chamber whisky set with 84-year-old and five-year-old malts.
- Ferovinum raised £17.5 million to expand its wine and spirits digital platform globally.
- WhistlePig partnered with Shafer Vineyards to produce a unique rye whiskey aged in Cabernet Sauvignon barrels.
- Neurita, a flavored Tequila brand, expanded its market reach by partnering with GMAX to enter global travel retail beyond the UK and Europe.
Bearish News
- Craft spirits sales declined for the first time in nearly a decade, dropping from 14 million cases in 2022 to 13.5 million in 2023.
- French wine consumption halved since the 1970s, falling from 46 to 24 million hectoliters annually by 2023.
- Vintage Wine Estates, a major wine corporation, filed for bankruptcy, citing over $400 million in liabilities.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
What’s happening in France? Did they discover Miller Lite?
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Universal Music Group projected revenue growth of at least 7% annually through 2028.
- The Billboard Global Music Index reached a new high of 1,873.87, up 4.1% for the week and 22.2% year-to-date.
- Music Mudder 2024, which involved 540 music industry participants, raised over £75,000 for the music therapy charity Nordoff And Robbins.
- The Circuit Group expanded into the UK market through a joint venture with management company CtrlFrk.
- Lionsgate announced a deal with AI company Runway to create customized AI models for its film and TV content.
Bearish News
- Producer Nigel Sinclair was indicted for tax crimes, allegedly concealing $25 million from the IRS.
- The US Congress expressed concerns about transparency in how performing rights organizations distribute royalties.
- Atlantic Music Group began layoffs affecting around 170 employees as part of a restructuring plan.
- Warner Music Group disclosed it will cut 750 jobs to save $260 million annually.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
This Lionsgate/Runway deal feels like the beginning of the end.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- New Jersey exempted gold and silver from sales tax, effective January 1, 2025, joining 45 other states with similar exemptions.
- Warranty & Indemnity insurance is boosting mining M&A deals, with 2023 transactions surpassing $121 billion.
- Tidal Metals secured $8.5 million in funding to develop technology for extracting magnesium metal from seawater.
- Sunstone Metals launched a $2 million Share Purchase Plan to finance its Ecuadorian mining projects.
Bearish News
- India’s precious metals sector has begun to face scrutiny from FATF, with only 5.4% of 175,000 businesses registered for identity verification.
- The platinum market projected a million-ounce supply deficit for 2024.
- A-Mark Precious Metals CEO sold over $338,000 in company stock, while the company’s gross profit margins remained weak.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Welcome to the club, New Jersey.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- A Caitlin Clark WNBA Draft autograph card sold for $84,000, setting a new record for women’s basketball cards.
- A massive sports memorabilia collection containing an estimated 20 million cards was discovered in rural Virginia.
- Graham Budd Auctions’ upcoming event showcases rare soccer items, including a pair of Diego Maradona’s match-worn boots.
Bearish News
- A suspect stole $17,000 worth of rare Magic: The Gathering cards from a Portsmouth store and remains at large.
- Cards Against Humanity sued SpaceX for $15 million over alleged trespassing and damage on land.
- Pocketpair, Palworld’s developer, denied knowledge of patent infringement following Nintendo’s lawsuit over the Pokémon-inspired game.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Pocketpair… Pokémon… Too close for comfort in my book.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Hotel Engine rebranded as Engine, acquiring Engine.com to expand its travel services.
- Solutions.com led Sedo’s weekly domain sales at $415,000, with Montex.com following at $30,000.
- Tipless.com sold for $15,000 on Sedo, likely purchased for a new business by the entrepreneur behind the HelloTruly app.
Bearish News
- Google urged stopping WHOIS for TLS domain checks after researchers showed hackers could exploit it.
- Only 27.89% of Jamaican MSMEs have developed or updated their corporate websites in the last five years.
- Ethena Labs warned users to avoid its site after a domain registrar hack on September 18.
- A Seattle childcare company tried to hijack the domain SeedsOfLifeChildcare.com from a Brooklyn-based childcare business but lost the case.
- Google Portugal was ordered to block a pirate site but plans to appeal the decision.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Who knew SeedsOfLifeChildcare was such a hot commodity?
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Sensate.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
