Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: The US added 256,000 jobs in December
- Real Estate: San Francisco home prices fell 10.87%
- Startups: Anthropic raised $2 billion at a $60 billion valuation
- Private Credit: US PE fundraising fell to $282.6 billion in 2024
- Crypto: Crypto hackers stole more than $3.01 billion in 2024
- NFTs: Trump’s Bitcoin Ordinals NFTs debuted on Magic Eden
- Art: Christie’s sales fell 6% to $5.7 billion
- Vintage Autos: A Porsche 917K is set to fetch $25 million
- Coins: Archaeologists discovered a 321-coin silver hoard
- Farmland: USDA slashed corn yields by 3.8 bushels per acre
- Luxury: US Customs seized $30,000 in counterfeit jewels
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: SuperWine launched an NFT
- Film & Music: Avicii’s streams rose 64% following Netflix doc
- Precious Metals: Zambia set a 15% export duty on gems
- Collectibles: Thieves stole 150 vintage Barbies worth $15K
- Websites: The domain 3D.ai sold for $100,000
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- India’s GDP growth is projected at 6.7% for the second half of 2024-25, up from 6% in the first half.
- The US added 256,000 jobs in December, with unemployment down to 4.1% and wages up 3.9% year-over-year.
- Argentina expects 4.5% economic growth in 2025 as inflation cools to 25.9%.
- Treasury guidance for clean electricity tax credits could add 308 GW of clean energy capacity by 2030.
- The US economy is set to outpace other developed nations in 2025, with strong business investment momentum.
Bearish News
- Japan’s public debt hit ¥1,100 trillion ($6.96 trillion), with ¥30 trillion in potential annual interest payments.
- German factory orders dropped 5.4% in November, the steepest decline since August 2024.
- China’s central bank suspended treasury bond purchases, citing asset scarcity and policy constraints.
- The IMF warned that Trump’s tariffs are raising long-term borrowing costs and increasing global economic uncertainty.
What are the odds?
It will be interesting to see if Argentina can keep its current momentum.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- The wellness real estate market hit $438.3 billion in 2023, projected to grow 14.8% annually through 2034.
- Philadelphia ranked fifth on Zillow’s hottest real estate markets for 2025, driven by New York buyers.
- HUD modernized HOME regulations to streamline affordable housing development.
- Kimco Realty bought The Markets at Town Center in Jacksonville for $108 million, with 97% of spaces leased.
- Boston’s home prices rose nearly 6% year-over-year to over $900,000, offering winter buyers less competition.
- Ares Management acquired a fully leased distribution center in Greater Boston’s largest industrial park.
Bearish News
- Silicon Valley office vacancy rates climbed to 21.8% in Q3 2024, up from 8.6% in 2019.
- San Francisco home prices fell 10.87%, the steepest drop among major US metros.
- Five large office loans totaling $1.03 billion turned delinquent in December 2024.
- Los Angeles wildfires caused $50 billion in damages as insurers continued exiting California.
- New York proposed restricting foreign buyers from purchasing real estate.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Between January 7 and 9, nine fires across Los Angeles County have burned 29,000 acres—twice the size of Manhattan.
Startups
Bullish News
- Anthropic secured $2 billion at a $60 billion valuation, with annual revenue hitting $875 million.
- Accel launched a $650 million fund for Indian and Southeast Asian startups in AI and consumer services.
- Whatnot raised $265 million at a $5 billion valuation after $3 billion in 2024 sales.
- Healthcare AI startup Hippocratic AI hit unicorn status with a $141 million Series B, reaching a $1.64 billion valuation.
- Robinhood shares rose 9.5% after JPMorgan upgraded its progress in monetizing customers.
Bearish News
- Epirus saw its valuation drop from $1.35 billion to $1 billion in its latest round.
- Pandion shut down abruptly, laying off 63 employees after burning through $125 million.
- Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation filed for bankruptcy and sold its assets for just $8 million.
- African startup funding fell 25% to $2.2 billion in 2024, with only $800 million raised in H1.
How to invest in startups right now:
That’s a lot of cash moving around for Whatnot.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Blackstone’s infrastructure fund gathered over $1 billion.
- The Vistria Group closed a $3 billion fund, doubling AUM to $16 billion in three years.
- Global healthcare PE hit $115 billion in 2024, with five deals over $5 billion.
- Global syndicated lending reached a record $5.9 trillion in 2024, up 32% from 2023.
- A Blackstone-led group acquired a majority stake in Citrin Cooperman in a $2 billion deal.
Bearish News
- US PE fundraising fell to $282.6 billion in 2024, with closing times extending to 16.7 months.
- A Senate investigation found PE ownership harmed patient care while extracting $645 million in dividends.
- Massachusetts imposed new restrictions on PE healthcare investors, adding oversight and fines.
- S&P 500’s earnings yield hit its lowest level versus Treasury yields since 2002.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
PE in healthcare is officially in the hot seat.
Crypto
Bullish News
- Bank of America adopted XRP for internal transactions, filing 83 blockchain patents.
- Movement Labs raised $100 million at a $3 billion valuation.
- Coinbase, a16z, and Google executives launched Aiccelerate DAO to develop open-source AI tech.
- South Korea’s KRX announced plans to add digital asset spot ETFs.
- Grayscale is considering 39 new assets for investment products.
- El Salvador granted Bitfinex Derivatives a license to expand trading in Latin America.
Bearish News
- The CFPB proposed rules that would hold crypto wallets liable for user losses from hacks.
- Crypto losses from hacks exceeded $3.01 billion in 2024, up 15% from 2023.
- Coinbase shares fell 8.14% after Ark Invest sold $1.08 million in stock.
- Gemini agreed to pay $5 million to settle CFTC charges.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Keep a close eye on your crypto wallet.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Pudgy Penguins NFT sales hit $545 million, with December sales up 261% to $104 million.
- Pixelport launched a testnet for cross-chain NFT trading, offering rewards to early users.
- Trump’s Bitcoin Ordinals NFTs debuted on Magic Eden, with prior collections reaching $24 million in volume.
Bearish News
- Eden Gallery faced a class-action lawsuit from 36 Meta Eagle Club NFT holders over losses.
- Midnight Hub NFT investors filed a securities lawsuit after the project failed to deliver.
- Pudgy Penguins NFT sales slumped over 50% in seven days.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Keeping up with Pudgy Penguins can be a rollercoaster.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Hephaestus Analytical and ArtDiscovery merged AI, provenance research, and chemical analysis for art authentication.
- The Minneapolis Institute of Art added six rare pieces, including Chinese bronze and Japanese screens.
- Sotheby’s announced a sale of Yves Saint Laurent works with Fondation Pierre Bergé certificates.
- Sotheby’s named Masumi Shinohara as managing director for Asia.
Bearish News
- Police seized Sally Mann photographs from Fort Worth’s Modern Art Museum over child pornography complaints.
- Hawaii’s Pacific Tsunami Museum laid off most staff and needs $1 million for repairs.
- Christie’s sales fell 6% to $5.7 billion, and Sotheby’s dropped 24% to $6 billion for the second consecutive year.
- Belgium’s art market faced potential disruption from a proposed 21% VAT increase on sales.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I would have never guessed the first jobs taken out by AI would be software engineers and art authenticators.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Jerry Seinfeld’s Steve McQueen-owned Porsche 917K is expected to fetch $25 million at Mecum Kissimmee.
- The Ferrari 250 GT Berlinetta SWB earned 56% votes as the public’s favorite classic at InterClassics Maastricht.
- The Porsche 996 GT3 RS and BMW M3 CSL are positioned to gain value ahead of US import eligibility.
Bearish News
- Seven Chicagoans stole nine luxury vehicles from a Land Rover dealership.
- Auto insurance rates have risen 51% in three years for classic car owners.
- An Aurora man faced indictment for using $2.3 million in COVID relief fraud to purchase an Aston Martin and other luxury vehicles.
- The collector car market showed signs of weakness at recent H&H auctions.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Would love to see the security footage of 7 thieves stealing 9 cars.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Archaeologists discovered a 321-coin silver hoard from the 11th century at Suffolk’s Sizewell C site.
- Two rare dimes and a Bicentennial Quarter, each valued at $19 million, remain in circulation.
- The coin-collecting market is projected to double to $61.2 billion by 2032, with an 8.08% CAGR.
- The US Marine Corps released over 1 million commemorative coins for their 250th anniversary.
- Heritage Auctions’ FUN event will feature an 1894-S Barber Dime graded PR66 PCGS CAC, one of only nine known examples.
Bearish News
- The US Mint failed to verify documentation that its gold coins were minted from newly mined US gold as required by law.
- Four US states and DC still have no sales tax exemptions for bullion and coin sales.
- A TikTok expert warned that Brexit 50p coins listed for £20,000 are worth only 50p.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Hold off on the gumballs, folks; you might be sitting on $19 million.
Farmland
Bullish News
- Dutch pension fund BPL Pensioen invested an additional €90 million in farmland, expanding their agricultural portfolio to €300 million.
- NFWF awarded $14.7 million in grants across 21 states to support conservation practices on farms and ranches.
- The farmland market remained strong through 2024, with high sales volumes despite lower commodity prices.
- South Korean companies showcased advanced AI-integrated vertical farming systems at CES 2025, reducing water usage by 90%.
- Cargill RegenConnect surpassed 1 million enrolled acres for 2025, with 40% of returning farmers adding new acreage.
- Topcon Agriculture expanded its precision farming solutions across the US through a new partnership with PFG America.
Bearish News
- USDA slashed corn yields by 3.8 bushels per acre, cutting production by 275 million bushels.
- Illinois farmland experienced multiple no-sales at auctions, with similar farms seeing price gaps of over $8,000 per acre.
- The USDA’s enforcement of foreign investment rules could lead to penalties of up to 25% of land value.
- A severe winter storm brought the heaviest snowfall in a decade to parts of the US, disrupting agricultural operations.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
AI Farming is on the up & up.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- The global luxury goods market is projected to reach $642.65 billion by 2032, growing at a 4.1% CAGR.
- Luxury brands adopted NFC chip technology for product authentication and enhanced customer engagement.
- Berenberg raised price targets for Hermès to €2,600 and LVMH to €720, citing their strong market positioning.
- Tiffany & Co. opened a new 408-square-meter flagship at Iguatemi São Paulo.
- Burberry Group’s stock rose 0.73% to £9.64, outperforming the broader market.
Bearish News
- US Customs seized counterfeit Tiffany & Co. jewels valued at $30,000 if genuine.
- Gucci owner Kering’s stock performance worsened as Asia Pacific market weakness continued.
- Capri Holdings stock dropped nearly 50% after the FTC blocked its acquisition by Tapestry.
- Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet aftermarket prices fell 6% to a three-year low.
- RBC downgraded Swatch Group and cut its price target, citing structural headwinds from connected watches.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
What will it take for a Gucci comeback in Asia?
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Buffalo Trace completed its $1.2 billion expansion, increasing production capacity by 150%.
- The luxury wines market expanded across online retail, specialty stores, and duty-free channels.
- Emma Watson’s Renais gin secured $6.2 million in funding for expansion into France, Spain, Dubai, and Canada.
- SuperWine launched a blockchain-based platform transforming premium wines into NFT-backed digital assets.
Bearish News
- Constellation Brands cut its annual sales forecast and reported Q3 net sales of $2.46 billion, missing estimates of $2.53 billion.
- Investment firm Fundsmith dumped Diageo stock over concerns about weight loss drugs’ negative impact on alcohol consumption.
- A Fine Wine & Good Spirits store in York County announced closure for several months of renovations.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
SuperWine is a hero I feel I could connect with.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Blackstone acquired a majority stake in Citrin Cooperman at a $2 billion enterprise value.
- Azerbaijan’s Cabinet of Ministers established minimum royalties for film creators. Feature film scripts start at 10,000 manats.
- Avicii’s music catalog experienced a 63.9% streaming increase following the Netflix documentary release.
- The Sonic the Hedgehog franchise surpassed $1 billion in total box office receipts, with the third film earning $312 million globally.
Bearish News
- Universal Music Group doubled down on its motion to dismiss Limp Bizkit’s $200 million royalties lawsuit.
- Regal Hollywood 24 Cinemas closed its doors despite a recent $250 million capital raise.
- MGM’s stock declined over 25% in six months as its Las Vegas revenue dropped 13%.
- Disney was charged with a new copyright lawsuit over Moana and its sequel.
- Massachusetts lawmakers passed legislation strengthening Live Nation-Ticketmaster’s monopoly in the ticket resale market.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Am I completely out of the loop, or is Sonic’s success surprising?
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Alta Resource Technologies secured $5.1 million in seed funding to advance its mineral separation technology.
- Gold moved toward the $2,700 level, while silver tested $30.50, and platinum reached multi-week highs near $985.
- The UAE expanded its reverse charge mechanism to support precious metals traders, covering gold, silver, platinum, and diamonds.
- Gemfields resumed full mining operations at its Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique.
- The synthetic diamond market is growing at a 19.38% CAGR through 2032.
Bearish News
- A Sylvania woman lost over $1 million in gold bars to scammers posing as US Marshals.
- Commercial Metals Company reported a 47.7% drop in earnings per share to $0.78 in Q1 fiscal 2025.
- Zambia imposed a 15% export duty on precious gemstones, forcing Gemfields to suspend operations at Kagem mine.
- Metal theft cases in Japan surged to 16,000 in 2023, with damages reaching 13.3 billion yen.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
What’s the consensus on synthetic diamonds? Do they express love or can only the organic ones do that?
Collectibles
Bullish News
- A rare St. Louis 1904 Olympic gold medal drew bids over $168,000 at RR Auction.
- Victor Wembanyama’s Prizm rookie card set a new record with over 24,300 PSA 10s.
- Heritage Auctions achieved $1.867 billion in total sales for 2024, nearly doubling their 2020 performance.
- The comic book market is projected to reach $59.64 billion by 2032, with a 7.2% annual growth rate.
Bearish News
- Challenge Creamery Antiques announced store closing with 75% discounts before the January 31 shutdown.
- Thieves stole 150 vintage Barbie dolls worth $15,000 from a Tatura home collection built over 12 years.
- Cowabunga Comics became the fourth collectible shop targeted by burglars in the Jacksonville area.
- Rudy Giuliani failed to surrender his valuable DiMaggio jersey and other sports memorabilia in a defamation case.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
How exactly do you steal 150 Barbies?
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Shopify acquired Shop.ca and Shop.us for $375,000 to expand its digital marketplace presence.
- Two investment groups offered to acquire Team Internet Group at 125 pence per share, sending the stock up 30%.
- The domain 3D.ai sold for $100,000.
- Sedo reported multiple premium sales including Betz.com for $240,000 and PayCard.com for $100,000.
Bearish News
- Over 4,000 abandoned web backdoors remained active and vulnerable in government and university systems.
- Cybercriminals exploited neglected domains to bypass email security protections and distribute malicious QR code attachments.
- Over 90 Indian government website links redirect users to scam sites.
- Florida’s new age verification law faced legal challenges as adult websites blocked access to avoid $50,000 per violation penalties.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
What’s the next AI domain to sell big? Has 4D been taken yet?
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Kutt.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.