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Table of Contents
DOGE’s Cancellations Overstep Savings
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), run by Elon Musk, has canceled nearly 2,300 federal contracts as part of a cost-cutting push.
However, the administration’s own data shows that over one-third of those cancellations are expected to yield no savings, as the funds have already been obligated.
Short Sellers’ Reports Sink AppLovin Stock
Short-selling firms Fuzzy Panda Research and Culper Research have taken aim at AppLovin, alleging that its AI ad-tech breakthroughs are a farce. The firms claim AppLovin is exploiting app permissions to juice mobile gaming results and gaming Meta’s ad platform. AppLovin’s plummet following the accusation has erased their 2025 gains.
Tesla’s Market Cap Sinks Below $1 Trillion
Tesla shares have plummeted 25% year-to-date, erasing most of the gains following President Trump’s election victory. The sell-off has pushed the electric vehicle maker’s market cap below $1 trillion. Elon Musk’s net worth has taken a $100 billion hit, though he remains the world’s richest person.
New “Gold Card” Immigration Program
The Trump administration announced plans to replace the EB-5 program with a more exclusive “Gold Card” system that would require wealthy foreigners to pay roughly $5 million to live and work in the US. The administration criticized the EB-5 system, calling it cheap and corrupt. The President highlighted the new system’s target audience, stating, “They’ll be wealthy, and they’ll be successful, and they’ll be spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people.”
Meta Mulls $200 Billion Data Center Project
Meta is reportedly in discussions for a colossal $200 billion AI data center project as it races to keep pace in the AI arms race.
The social media giant has been aggressively investing in AI infrastructure and talent acquisition. However, details on the rumored project remain scarce.
New Antimony Project Strikes Big in Canada
In a scramble for domestic antimony supply in North America, a promising new project may be hiding in plain sight. Canagold Resources has unveiled a 5,630-tonne antimony resource at its New Polaris gold project in British Columbia. The critical mineral has been gaining attention due to Chinese export restrictions and new investment.
Stock ideas
Here are three of my favorites from this past week.
Analysis provided by public.com.
Remember to always DYOR.
What I’m reading
I get a lot of mail asking where I find all this good stuff. Here are a few of my favorite newsletters, all of which are free to subscribe to:
Learn to build beautiful businesses. Weekly strategies, insights, and lessons from SMB expert Michael Girdley.
Weekly insights about private credit and case studies about making hard money loans directly to real estate investors.
Crypto made simple. Actionable alpha 3x a week.
Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM)
Bullish Case
- Strategic Capital Initiative: Initiative with private credit investors projected to generate ~$200 million in incremental annual aerospace EBITDA by 2026.
- Compelling Valuation: At just 6x CY2026E earnings plus $10 billion net cash on the balance sheet, AMTM appears significantly undervalued with ~60% upside potential.
- Backlog Strength: With a $45 billion backlog (3.2x annual revenue), AMTM has strong visibility into future revenue streams.
Bearish Case
- Short Report Claims: A recent short report claimed AMTM is a leasing business portraying itself as an aftermarket business and an accounting scheme.
- Government Contracting Risks: AMTM is exposed to risks related to government budget cuts, contract cancellations, and shifts in political priorities.
FTAI Infrastructure LLC (FIP)
Bullish Case
- Undervalued Assets: FIP’s assets, particularly its stake in Long Ridge Energy Terminal, appear significantly undervalued by the market.
- Accretive Acquisition Plans: FIP is actively pursuing the acquisition of GCM Grosvenor’s 49.9% stake in Long Ridge.
- Multiple Catalysts: All four of FIP’s assets seem poised for meaningful inflection points in 2025, including a potential data center deal for Long Ridge later in the year.
Bearish Case
- Lack of Hard Catalysts: While FIP appears well-positioned, the absence of recent hard catalysts has weighed on the stock’s performance.
- Market Sentiment: Negative market sentiment toward FIP’s sector could continue to overshadow the company’s underlying asset value and growth prospects.
thredUP (TDUP)
Bullish Case
- Compelling Growth Outlook: Over the next five years, TDUP is expected to achieve high-teens revenue growth with 25-30% incremental adjusted EBITDA margins.
- Strengthening Secondhand Market: A strengthening secondhand clothing market, now coupled with TDUP’s recent operational improvements.
- Inflection Point Reached: TDUP’s Q4 preannouncement significantly exceeded guidance, with accelerating growth and margin expansion.
Bearish Case
- Competitive Pressures: As the secondhand clothing market expands, TDUP faces increasing competition from other online marketplaces and traditional retailers.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite the recent operational improvements, TDUP’s shares may not fully reflect the execution risks and competitive challenges.
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Cheers, Wyatt
Disclosures
- This issue is sponsored by CapitalPad
- There are affiliate links above; we’ll get a couple of bucks if you take action after you click.
- Nothing above is financial advice. DYOR, you filthy animal.
