Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: US consumer prices rose 0.2% in August
- Real Estate: Seattle’s office vacancy rate reached 23.2%
- Startups: Oura acquired metabolic health startup Veri
- Private Credit: Growth equity deals surpassed buyouts
- Crypto: Global crypto adoption in 2024 passed the 2021 peak
- NFTs: Upland renewed its partnership with the NFLPA
- Art: Fine-art auction sales dropped 29.5%
- Vintage Autos: Christie’s acquired Gooding & Company
- Coins: A 1975 No S Proof Dime is expected to fetch $500,000
- Farmland: Ghana raised cocoa bean prices by 45%
- Luxury: Burberry’s share price dropped to £5.7
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: US wine sales fell for the fifth year
- Film & Music: BMI sued SiriusXM
- Precious Metals: Gold prices hit a record high
- Collectibles: Topps expanded its deal with Disney
- Websites: Continue.com for $550,000
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- US consumer prices rose 0.2% in August, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 2.5%, its lowest level since February 2021.
- The European Central Bank lowered its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%.
- Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated the economy is expected to grow at least 3% this year.
- US consumer sentiment improved in September, with the University of Michigan’s index rising to 69.0 from 67.9 in August.
Bearish News
- The US fiscal 2024 deficit has reached nearly $1.9 trillion, with a month remaining in the fiscal year.
- Oil prices tumbled last week as traders slashed bullish bets to the lowest level since 2011.
- US jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 230,000 for the week of September 7.
- The average interest rate on retail store cards reached a record high of 30.45%.
- JPMorgan Chase shares dropped 5% after tempering interest income and expenses guidance.
What are the odds?
A rate cut is considered a certainty.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
Altea Highlights
Three blockbuster deals in the works over at Altea:
- 🍷 Blue Chip Burgundy
- 📺 Samba TV Secondary
- ⚖️ Litigation Finance
Plus, our Film Finance deal is closing in the next fortnight.
A lot is going on.
Make sure to apply now if you’re into this sort of thing.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Home prices were projected to rise by 20.8% between 2024 and 2028.
- A record 39% of consumers expected mortgage rates to decline in the next 12 months, up from 29% in July.
- Lone Star Funds raised $2.7 billion for value-add opportunities in commercial real estate across North America, Europe, and Japan.
- The University of California acquired a Los Angeles luxury apartment complex for $39 million to provide student housing.
- Manchester, NH was ranked as the country’s hottest housing market, with listings receiving 3.3 times more views than the national average.
Bearish News
- China hit PwC with a six-month ban and a $62 million fine over its Evergrande audit.
- Seattle’s office vacancy rate reached 23.2%, with office construction dropping from 6.6 million to 2.1 million square feet year-over-year.
- Nearly half of US renters spent over 30% of their income on housing costs in 2023.
- Millennial homeownership in California’s major metros fell well below the national average, with Los Angeles at just 20%.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Really hoping that 39% is right.
Startups
Bullish News
- Glean, an AI-enhanced work assistant startup, raised $260 million in a Series E round, doubling its valuation to $4.6 billion.
- Oura acquired metabolic health startup Veri, expanding its health monitoring capabilities beyond sleep tracking.
- Australia’s startup scene ranked third globally in liquidity, producing 1.5 unicorns per $1 billion VC investment.
- Unity eliminated its controversial runtime fee, returning to a per-seat subscription model for game developers.
- AI startup Poolside made plans to raise nearly $500 million at a $3 billion valuation before releasing its initial product.
- Mastercard acquired Recorded Future for $2.65 billion, a significant premium over its 2019 valuation of $780 million.
Bearish News
- The Female Founders Fund reported a challenging fundraising environment due to the tech sector’s funding drought.
- Amperity laid off 13% of its workforce, its third round of cuts since last year.
- India’s new M&A rule increases regulatory scrutiny, discouraging startup acquisitions, and limiting funding opportunities.
How to invest in startups right now:
Bad time to be a startup in India.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- ICG raised a record €15.2 billion for its European direct-lending fund, the largest of its kind in the region.
- Bain Capital Credit announced $1.8 billion in financing investments for the first half of 2024.
- Growth equity deals surpassed buyouts, accounting for 23% of all PE deals in the first half of 2024.
- BlackRock and Partners Group formed a strategic partnership to offer retail investors access to private markets.
- The NFL opened its gates to PE investors, allowing firms to acquire up to 10% stakes in teams.
Bearish News
- UBS Asset Management reduced exposure to corporate bonds in global portfolios, citing economic slowdown.
- Carl Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises stock dropped over 75% in the past year and a half, losing nearly $20 billion in value.
- New EU banking rules, CRD VI, could create a varied regulatory environment impacting PC funds.
- Big Lots filed for bankruptcy and was acquired by PE firm Nexus Capital Management, leading to more store closures.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Say bye to Big Lots.
Crypto
Bullish News
- Ethereum’s on-chain stablecoin volume reached an all-time high of $1.46 trillion, more than double its value at the start of the year.
- Kampela secured funding through a Polkadot DAO, becoming the first fully DAO-funded hardware wallet in the Polkadot ecosystem.
- A new bill was proposed by the SEC-CFTC committee to shape US crypto regulations, fostering government-private sector cooperation.
- Global crypto adoption in 2024 surpassed the 2021 peak, fueled by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the US.
- India led global crypto adoption for the second consecutive year.
- Grayscale announced plans to launch the first US XRP trust.
Bearish News
- eToro settled with the SEC for $1.5 million and agreed to pare back its US crypto offerings significantly.
- The SEC expanded its lawsuit against Binance, targeting additional tokens like AXS, FIL, and ATOM as unregistered securities.
- Crypto scams cost victims $5.6 billion in 2023, a 45% increase from the previous year, according to the FBI.
- Indonesian crypto exchange Indodax went offline after a suspected $22 million security breach.
- Sky, formerly MakerDAO, considered fully ditching Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) over concerns about Justin Sun’s involvement.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
I like to think I’m above getting scammed by crypto, but numbers like this make me nervous.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Industry leaders a16z and OpenSea pledged $6 million to shield NFT artists from legal threats through the Creator Defense Fund initiative.
- DRiP, a Solana-based creator platform, raised $8 million in seed funding to expand its low-cost, accessible NFT collectibles model.
- Tom Brady’s Autograph relaunched as a fan platform, rewarding users for consuming content with coins.
- Dmail Network announced plans to launch an NFT marketplace for trading over 3 million NFT domains.
- The UK government introduced a bill proposing new legal protections for digital assets such as cryptocurrency and NFTs as personal property.
- Upland renewed its partnership with the NFLPA, offering digital collectibles tied to real NFL player performances and moments.
Bearish News
- Global NFT market sales volume dropped 2.74% to $82 million in the past week, with collector numbers decreasing by over 90%.
- Hyperspace, a Solana NFT marketplace, announced its closure on September 17.
- OpenSea announced it anticipates a lawsuit from the SEC, targeting NFT projects that hinted at returns on investment.
- DeFi total value locked plummeted 14% to $144 billion in August, while NFT trading volume hit a yearly low of $471 million.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
What NFL moment do you want as an NFT?
Artwork
Bullish News
- Frieze Seoul attracted 70,000 visitors, with high-value sales including a $2.5 million Nicolas Party painting.
- The Metropolitan Museum of Art announced a major exhibition “Siena: The Rise of Painting” featuring 100 rare early Renaissance works.
- The Art Institute of Chicago received a transformative $75 million gift to fund a new building for its modern and contemporary art collection.
- A rare copy of the US Constitution could fetch millions at auction, with online bidding already reaching $1 million.
Bearish News
- Fine-art auction sales dropped 29.5% to $5 billion in the first half of 2024, with the average price per lot at a decade-low of $27,301.
- Sydney Contemporary art fair reported sales of AU $17.5 million, down from $21 million last year.
- Climate protesters shut down the Rijksmuseum, demanding it end sponsorship with ING Group over environmental issues.
- The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s $50 billion art collection was found missing from its balance sheet.
- 2 men were charged for a stolen Banksy print valued at £270,000.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Who’s keeping up the books at the MOMA?
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Christie’s agreed to acquire Gooding & Company, boosting its presence in the collector car market.
- Broad Arrow Auctions announced it will feature a rare 2022 Ford GT Alan Mann Heritage Edition, one of 30.
- A 1974 DeTomaso Longchamp GTS-Spec, one of 412, has been scheduled for auction on Bring A Trailer.
- An Aston Martin Valkyrie with just 68 miles is expected to sell for $2.6 to $3 million at RM Sotheby’s Dubai.
Bearish News
- A $2 million 1934 Hispano-Suiza J12 Vanvooren Cabriolet was destroyed by fire after Pebble Beach Concours.
- A Santa Rosa car restoration shop owner was sentenced to 10 years for stealing $350,000 from customers.
- Burt Reynolds’ 1978 Pontiac Trans Am failed to sell at Mecum, not meeting the reserve price.
- Stellantis paused Fiat 500e production due to slow sales, with only 204 sold in the US in 2024.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Poor Burt.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- The Helmingham Hoard, with 680 Iron Age and Roman coins, is set to auction for £75,000 at Noonans on Sept. 18.
- A 1975 No S Proof Dime, one of two known, is expected to fetch over $500,000 at GreatCollections in October.
- Stack’s Bowers sold six rare coins for $600,000+ in 2024, including an 1825/4/1 Half Eagle for $1.08 million.
- Archaeologists found 27 silver denarii from 94-74 BC on the Mediterranean island of Pantelleria.
Bearish News
- A Tampa man was arrested for allegedly stealing $50,000 worth of Spanish gold coins using fake payment information.
- Metal detectorist Layton Davies received five more years in prison for failing to repay £600,000 from an illegal Viking treasure sale.
- Sequim police have begun investigating the alleged theft of over $100,000 through an unlicensed coin business.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I was just wondering where I’d placed my 27 silver denarii from 94-74 BC…
Farmland
Bullish News
- Corn futures rose 3.75 cents marking a third straight weekly gain.
- The Ziquejie Terraces in Hunan, China, were praised by experts at a global farming conference for preserving biodiversity and boosting food security.
- The 2022 Agricultural Census reported a 17% increase in conservation practices, adding 2.6 million acres of cover crops.
- Indiana farmland prices hit record highs, with top-quality land averaging $14,392 per acre.
- Brazil topped a new report as the leading region to meet global food demand, projected to rise by 60% in 10 years.
- Patagonia’s Holdfast Collective donated $1 million to help Ventura County farmers transition to regenerative organic farming.
Bearish News
- Only 29% of consumers recognize regenerative agriculture, with few willing to pay higher prices for its products.
- Typhoon Yagi devastated Southeast Asia, destroying 200,000 hectares of farmland.
- Corn and soybean production on Illinois cash rent farmland showed negative returns in 2023.
- Ghana raised cocoa bean prices by 45%, bringing the new price to $192 per 64 kg sack.
- The number of organic farms in the US fell nearly 5%, dropping from 18,166 in 2017 to 17,321 in 2022.
- USDA declared natural disaster conditions in 23 Ohio counties due to severe drought.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Hope you like feijoada!
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Sotheby’s and Marriott’s Luxury Group partnered for exclusive experiences blending luxury hospitality and rare treasures.
- Forever 21 debuted Luxe XXI, offering high-quality fashion at affordable prices.
- Luxury bag charms boosted String Ting’s revenue by 63%.
- Rolex led as the top choice for first-time luxury watch buyers, followed by Omega and Seiko.
- Ralph Lauren beat expectations with a 1% revenue increase, hitting $1.51 billion in Q1.
Bearish News
- HSBC cut luxury sector growth projections for 2024 from 5.5% to 2.8%.
- Only 13% of upper-middle-income Chinese consumers said they plan to increase luxury spending.
- Burberry’s share price dropped to £5.7, trading at just seven times earnings.
- Richemont’s chairman urged luxury watchmakers to cut production due to reduced demand.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Didn’t realize how badly I needed a luxury bag charm until now.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Glenmorangie launched its Pursuit of Passion Wine Cask Collection, featuring 18-20 year-aged whiskies in premium wine casks.
- US spirits sales rose 4.3% by value and 4.5% in volume in July 2024.
- Simon Family Estate opened a new Napa tasting salon after earning a 100-point score for their 2021 Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon.
- Johnnie Walker introduced Blue Label Ultra, boasting the world’s lightest whisky glass bottle at just 180 grams.
Bearish News
- US wine sales fell for the fifth straight year, with less interest from younger generations.
- US beer consumption hit its lowest level since the 1970s in 2023.
- Scotland considered banning logos on pint glasses to curb excessive drinking.
- Sbragia Family Vineyards closed its tasting room and listed the winery for sale due to low visitation.
- Fever-Tree’s UK revenue dropped 6% to £50.9 million in H1 2024.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Spirits are up & beer is down.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- The global background music market is expected to grow by $527.2 million from 2024-2028.
- Former BMG execs launched new rights company umn in Berlin, collaborating with German pop star Max Giesinger.
- Universal Music Group signed a global licensing deal with Tuned Global, expanding its B2B streaming catalog.
- UK music-tech startup Tenwest received an Innovate UK grant to develop Future Mode, a growth platform for emerging artists by 2025.
Bearish News
- The House Judiciary Committee requested an examination of PROs due to concerns about royalty distributions.
- Spotify revealed it paid less than 1% of royalties in a $10 million streaming fraud case.
- BMI sued SiriusXM, claiming underpayment of royalty rates.
- The Culpeper Regal Theater closed temporarily due to safety issues with its marquee, affecting local audiences.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Who’s your favorite background musician?
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Gold prices hit a record high of $2,572.81 per ounce, with projections reaching $3,000 by mid-2025.
- The global precious and base metals market is expected to reach $2,300.9 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 12.34%.
- AngloGold Ashanti announced plans to acquire Centamin for $2.5 billion, making it the fourth-largest gold producer globally.
- Gold on MCX rose over 1% to Rs 73,128 per 10 grams, while silver hit Rs 87,451 per kg.
Bearish News
- Platinum’s market deficit is expected to exceed 1 million ounces in 2024, with supply 8% below the 10-year average.
- Copper and aluminum futures dropped from May peaks, with copper down over 20% and aluminum falling 14%.
- Signet Jewelers reported a 7.6% drop in overall sales and 3.4% in same-store sales for Q2.
- Sibanye-Stillwater announced plans to lay off 700 workers at its Montana platinum and palladium mines.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Hold on to your gold, everybody.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Sotheby’s and Fanatics teamed up for a “Holy Grails” trading card auction, featuring rare items like a 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson card valued up to $350,000.
- Topps expanded its deal with Disney, securing global trading card rights for Disney, Pixar, and Marvel starting in 2025.
- Giant Sports Cards was named the fastest-growing retail company in the US with a 3,529% growth rate.
- 3 Kings Sports Cards & Collectibles announced plans to open Detroit’s only sports card store.
Bearish News
- The US government seized over $28 million in counterfeit sports merchandise before the last Super Bowl.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Collectibles, welcome to Motor City.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Braden Pollock closed two major domain sales: Continue.com for $550,000 and Cancel.com for $300,000.
- CV.co sold for $130,000.
- PayPal and Venmo announced support for Ethereum Name Service (ENS) domains, simplifying crypto transactions for US users.
- Permira raised its takeover bid for Squarespace to $7.2 billion, a 36.4% premium to the pre-announcement stock price.
Bearish News
- The ASAP.com domain sold for $340,000 in a bankruptcy auction, a low point for Waitr Holdings.
- A UDRP complaint against QW.com was denied due to fraud concerns.
- Magic Eden’s domain restructuring drew backlash from US users fearing potential SEC actions.
- Cybercriminals created fake domains to trick Trump supporters in a digital trading card scam.
- Wix.com announced it will block all Russian users and take down their websites starting September 12, 2024.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Brandon Pollock is really covering all his bases with his domain sales.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at JKBX.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
