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We analyze IPOs and use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems.
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Todays deep-dive is on:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 2013 – 2014 Immaculate Gold (IPO today on Collectable)
- Luka Doncic 2018 Panini Prizm Blue PSA 10 (IPO tomorrow on Collectable)
- Lebron James 2004 Exquisite Emblems of Endorsement BGS 9 (IPO Thursday on Collectable)
Table of Contents
What is the Giannis Antetokounmpo 2013 – 2014 Immaculate Gold BGS 9?
This is one of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s many autographed parallel rookie cards from the 2013 – 2014 set. The base Premium Autographs Patches Set contains 25 of each card, but the gold parallel only had ten each. Graded BGS 9, there aren’t any higher examples of this card.
The card is very rare, of course, but there are loads of very rare varieties of his cards.
Cultural Relevance
The Greek Freak is an NBA player for the Milwaukee Bucks. He became the first player in NBA history to finish top 20 in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, when he did it in 2016-2017. He’s a four-time all-star, twice receiving the most votes in the East. He was also league MVP and Defensive POY in 2020. Two of his brothers also play in the NBA, one of whom is on the Bucks with him.
He’s been rising in popularity steadily for the last five years:
From a cultural relevant point of view, it’s unfortunate he plays for the Bucks, as that limits his national exposure.
He is, of course, very popular in Greece and the Greek half of Cyprus.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
There aren’t any good comps for this card.
The best I (and Collectable) found were two auctions for the /25 version:
- $31k in November 2020
- $21k in October 2020
As a rough guide, you can generally use the print run as a multiplier for the value. So a card that is /10 is 2.5 more valuable than a card that is /25, for example. This is, of course, very rough.
If we do use that as a guide, the value is roughly $77.5k based on the November result.
However, [Sorry, this very important bit is for Insiders Only]
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
Risk Profile
Recent Growth Trend
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Modern NBA cards have had a rough go the last several months, mostly treading water. I do expect them to appreciate over the next twelve months, but I wouldn’t expect a further 125% rise. Further, given his recent contract extension, he won’t be going to a higher-profile media market anytime soon.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade weekly.
Platform Risk
Intangibles
Giannis is a fantastic player who may one day reach icon status. He’s got as good a chance as any young(ish) player currently in the NBA.
He’s also recently signed a whopper of a contract extension, which could give the Bucks a chance to build a team around him.
What is the Luka Doncic 2018 Panini Prizm Blue PSA 10?
This is a limited run /199 of one of the key rookie cards for Luka Doncic. Rated PSA 10. There are 35 cards rated PSA 10 and non rated higher than BGS 9.5.
Cultural Relevance
Luka Doncic is a Slovenian NBA player with the Dallas Mavericks. He’s one of the most promising young players in the league and is a triple double machine.
- Youngest player in NBA history to lead the league outright in triple-doubles (21 years, 168 days old). Previously held by Magic Johnson
- Broke Jason Kidd‘s Mavericks franchise record (21) of most triple-doubles with 22 in just 122 NBA games.
- NBA record 42 points in an NBA playoff debut.
- First player in NBA history to record 43+ points, 17+ rebounds, and 13+ assists in a playoff game.
His popularity is in the same ballpark as the much more established Giannis.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
This one is wildly overpriced. I mean, like a joke overpriced. Here we have the two most recent sales of this card at auction.
Collectable bought the card for [Insiders Only] on 9 Jan 2021. His base rookie card had gone sideways since then, so it’s unclear why they paid this much for the card or why they think it’s worth $62,500.
Whomever Collectable bought it from paid around $5k for it early 2020, so they’re doing well anyway.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
Risk Profile
Recent Growth Trend
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
See Giannis above…modern NBA cards are really struggling right now. That said, Doncic is a rare breed. He could dominate for another 10 – 15 years.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade weekly.
Platform Risk
Intangibles
His international pedigree makes him interesting. Speaking four languages already, he’s got the opporutnity to engender worldwide appeal.
What is the Lebron James 2004 Exquisite Emblems of Endorsement BGS 9?
This is special insert card from 2004 (a year after his rookie season) that features a game-worn swath of his jersey and an autograph. There were only ten of these made, and this is the highest graded version at BGS 9.
Cultural Relevance
You know who LeBron James is.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
This was a b-stard to value.
Much like the Giannis above, there just aren’t any good comps for it. Worse, most of Lebron’s super interesting and valuable cards came out the year prior, in 2003. So this is what I’ve done:
- Figure out the price difference between a 2003 Lebron and a comparable card from 2004.
- Identify several limited run cards from 2003 and adjust their value relative to this card based on the print run (same formula as above).
- Apply the two multiples for year and print runs to each card then average them out.
Based on the price difference between a 2003 Topps Chrome and 2004 Topps Chrome (which is beautiful, by the way), there’s around a 4.6 multiple. That is, the 2003 card is worth 4.6x what the 2004 card is worth.
To walk you through the maths using 2003 Finest as an example:
- 2003 Finest value: $160k
- Population adjustment = 2.5x
- Year adjustment = 4.6x
So (160k x 2.5) / 4.6 = $86,957
This is what we’ve got:
[Super impressive table with several cards and fancy maths available to Insiders Only]
For my valuation, I’ve actually thrown out the 2003 Topps Chrome Gold Refractor, because that set is so iconic for Lebron, but I’ve included it in the data set so you can put it back in if you’d like.
Averaging this all out, we get [Insiders Only].
This is MILEs off what Collectable’s valued it at…or more accurately, what the card’s owner has valued it at.
This card’s market cap is $214k, but only $114k is available to shareholders. Technically this means shareholders will have a majority vote, but in reality, the owner will retain control (have you ever seen 100% of shareholders agree about anything?).
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
Risk Profile
Recent Growth Trend
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Lebron cards are at a premium to other modern NBA cards at the moment and should hold value better, but this card is already starting from a very high base.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade quarterly
Platform Risk
Intangibles
The card, while overvalued (IMO), is undeniably very very cool, and Lebron is the King. That said, I hate retained ownership when it also retains control of the asset.
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