Josh Allen + Lebron Finest

Welcome to Sports Cards Insider. We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing. You are receiving this newsletter because you follow the Sports Cards topic.

Today is a deep dive into two assets:

  • Josh Allen 2018 Gold Refractor BGS 9.5 – IPOs 12th April on Collectable
  • LeBron James 2003 Finest Refractor /250 PSA 10 – IPOs 14th April on Otis

What is the Josh Allen 2018 Gold Refractor BGS 9.5?

This is a limited run /10 from the popular Panini Prizms series in 2019. There are around a dozen parallels in this set, and gold is the third rarest. Seven of the ten cards are registered with BGS. 9.5 is the highest. Two of the BGS 9.5 have higher subgrades than this card.

There are no known BGS 10s.

The card itself features rookie Josh Allen, playing for the Buffalo Bills.

It IPOs on Collectable 12th April with no retained equity.

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Cultural Relevance

Josh Allen is a prospect without a doubt.

Since earning the starting spot on the Bills early in 2018, Allen has steadily improved year over year. In 2020, he broke several franchise passing records and recorded a passer rating of 107.2. In 2020, he was the:

  • First quarterback with 375+ pass yards, 3+ pass touchdowns, 0 interceptions and a 130+ QB rating in multiple games in a single season (Week 2, 9 & 13, 2020)
  • First quarterback with 10 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns through three weeks (Week 1–3, 2020)

Allen did well in the 2020 postseason, winning two games before going out in the AFC Championship game. He posted a 94.3 passer rating while racking up five TDs and no interception. He also ran for a TD.

You can watch his 2020 highlights here.

Inferred Value – $20k +

[Detailed Valuation Available to Insiders]

Category Strength

The sports cards category returned a 60% ROI in Q1 2021.

Subcategory Strength

[Insiders Only]

Risk Profile

[Insiders Only]

Recent Growth Trend

[Insiders Only]

Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts

Allen’s career is definitely headed the right way, and if the Bills can get him (or vice versa) to a Super Bowl or two, he could potentially rival Mahomes II.

Asset Liquidity

This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade daily.

Platform Risk

[Insiders Only]

Intangibles

Allen has perhaps the most Varsity Blues story ever.

  • He grew up on a 3,000 acre farm in California, where he was nationally recognised for his cantaloupe-growing prowess.
  • While in high school, he worked in his mum’s restaurant
  • He was the basketball team’s leader scorer, and his fastball topped out over 90mph
  • He’s still dating his high school sweetheart, Brittany Williams. Williams was a cheerleader at Fresno State and is now a pilates instructor.


What is the LeBron James 2003 Finest Refractor /250 PSA 10?

This is another limited run refractor /250 for LeBron James. Of the 40 graded by PSA (most were sent to BGS), eight are graded PSA 10. How mad would you be if you were the person who pulled the PSA 5?

It IPOs on Otis at noon 14th April 2021 for $84,200 and will have no retained equity.

Cultural Relevance

We’ve discussed LeBron. Here are his ten best dunks.

Inferred Value – $100k +

[Detailed Valuation Available to Insiders Only]

Category Strength

The sports cards category returned a 60% ROI in Q1 2021.

Subcategory Strength

[Insiders Only]

Risk Profile

[Insiders Only]

Recent Growth Trend

[Insiders Only]

Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts

LeBron cards have been over the place lately, and it’s sort of anyone’s guess where it’s going to go next. Long-term, though, he’ll retain value.

Asset Liquidity

This will have a roughly 30 day lockup period then will trade daily.

Platform Risk

[Insiders Only]

Intangibles

Despite the card’s valuation, the asset won’t trade to that because Otis is inefficient and valuing this card was hard.


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Author

Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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