Welcome to the WC, where you’re trapped in my mind for eight to twelve minutes weekly.
We’ve had a lot of heavy (long-winded) conversations over the last few weeks here in the WC (where I do my best thinking):
- Should we buy a French whisky distillery? (probably not)
- Where and how to invest in the Middle East during the DJT administration (Dubai)
- USA tour wrap-up and the best investment ideas from the trip (Our Film I fund)
Today’s going to be a light bites session, focusing on noteworthy and pretty things—a combination of what I’m thinking, worrying, and learning about.
Nothing here is investment advice. Do your own research. Please.
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Table of Contents
AI 2027
Do you want to know how AI will develop and advance over the next several years?
I do.
Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean collaborated on a research project called AI 2027, which delves into the topic, and it’s stunning.
Among other alarming predictions, the team forecasts that AI will achieve “superhuman” bioweapon capabilities within two years.
Superintelligent AI remains remarkably crap at robotics throughout the scenario, which provides some comfort to those who are worried about this.
Human space travel
The scenario above is notably quiet about space travel and exploration, which I found surprising.
Twitter AI super nerd Prakash also noted this.
It’s something I’ve been thinking a lot about lately, because it’s the confluence of several trends (plus Elon won’t shut up about it again now he’s got outta DOGE).
While most people think of space travel as colonizing Mars or traveling to other solar systems, I don’t think that’s how it’s going to play out.
Why Mars is stupid
Colonising Mars is the kind of great idea a twelve-year-old has after watching Total Recall but before he does any thinking.
Brian Cox breaks it down well.
Tl;DR, it’s far away, the planet is extremely hostile, and there are many better options, regardless of your goal.
Want a place to live off the Earth? The moon is closer and easier to build on. Plus, you don’t have to worry about transport windows.
Want to mine resources? There are trillions of tonnes of asteroids just floating around the solar system.
Need an off-earth base for expanding into the cosmos? Again, the moon is full of water ice (which you need for everything) and is far easier and cheaper.
If you want a decent (and easy-to-read) primer on this, check out Delta-V by Daniel Suarez.
Unfortunately, most books on intrasolar exploration focus too much on Mars, but if you don’t mind that, you can’t beat Leviathan Wakes. The Red Rising series is also fun if you don’t mind a bit of YA angst.
Where then?
So what makes sense from an intrasolar expansion point of view?
Europe colonising the Americas is a good analogue, I think (though hopefully no natives to wipe out with smallpox).
Pick an easily accessible and resource-rich hub (such as the American East Coast), start sending resources back, build up an economy and infrastructure, and then expand.
Applying this to space, that looks like
- building up a Cislunar infrastructure
- mining necessary resources from nearby asteroids
- using those resources to build (and pay for) a permanent facility on the moon
This is how humanity actually becomes less reliant on Earth. Legitimate enterprise, industry, and economic incentives will put people on the moon, Ceres, Phobos, Deimos, Callisto, and possibly Venus before anyone seriously considers Mars.
Skipping all this to colonise the red planet would have been like … I don’t know … John Cabot heading straight for Hawaii.
So what?
I haven’t a scooby how this fits into Altea or my life, but it does feel vital. While 21st-century men like to complain they were born too late to explore the earth and too early to explore the stars, I’m not sure that’s true anymore.
Just yesterday, I stumbled on Vitruvian Space Systems, which has filed seven patents and is raising $20 million to build the infrastructure layer of the space economy. Overall, the space economy is expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2030.
Big things are happening, and I think we may be just in time.
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That’s all for this week; I hope you enjoyed it.
Cheers,
Wyatt
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