Welcome to the WC, wherein you’re trapped in my mind for eight to twelve minutes weekly. Probably closer to 20 today.
I’m back after a revealing week at TEFAF Maastricht with our art broker, Nicho.
I planned to highlight some insights from TEFAF in today’s WC, but the topic is thornier than I thought, and it’s not quite ready.
So instead, you get something utterly random today.
Why is the naming of generations stupid? How should it be done? What can we learn from each one?
This popped up on Twitter the other day and ground my gears in a completely autistic way.
Defining generations has metastasized from a mildly annoying sociological pursuit into something far more insidious. This intellectual grift defies logic, statistical rigor, and basic analytical consistency.
What began as a reasonable attempt to understand demographic patterns has degenerated into an absurd parade of sweeping generalizations, each more vapid than the last.
Millennials murder entire industries with their avocado toast fixations while drowning in student debt; Boomers shout at cloud computing while clutching their appreciated real estate; and Gen Z—bless their algorithm-addled hearts—repackage clinical anxiety disorders as personality traits.
Our generational labels have become little more than lazy shorthand for media narratives, corporate marketing strategies, and political wedge issues.
These aren’t harmless categorizations. They’re intellectual shortcuts that reveal a deeper problem—the same flawed thinking that consistently undermines most retail investors’ returns, year after year, market cycle after market cycle.
The same logical fallacies that allow these preposterous categorizations to flourish are sabotaging your investment portfolio, lurking in your decision-making processes like the termites in your McMansion’s foundation.
What’s on the menu today:
- Our concept of generations is stupid and wrong.
- A better way to think about generations.
- What can the last 200 years of generations teach us?
Before we begin: Nothing here is investment advice. Do your own research. Please.
Let’s go. 🚀
Three weeks ago, I dug into the economics of wine investing (Spoiler Alert: don’t buy a vineyard)
While investable bottles are down, one part of the industry is trading: trade finance.
This might be up your street if you’re looking for a high-yield, low-volatility way to invest outside the US.
It follows our theme (more on that below) of finding the most stable, boring, and profitable ways to invest in sexy industries.
Being the smart money.
It’s for accredited investors only.
Table of Contents
Our concept of generations is stupid and wrong.
The fundamental problem begins with ubiquity and ends with absurdity. Our current generational labels—Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, Zoomers—aren’t anchored in meaningful demographic transitions or substantive economic inflection points.
Instead, they latch onto cultural zeitgeists, technological novelties, or arbitrary post-hoc rationalization. These labels suffer from a constellation of biases that should make any serious investor break out in hives.
Retrospective Bias is perhaps the most pernicious. Notice how we tenderly mythologize earlier generations with poetic monikers like the “Lost Generation” or the “Greatest Generation” while reducing recent cohorts to dismissive caricatures?
The “Greatest Generation” fought fascism and built the modern economic order, while Millennials are entitled narcissists taking selfies in the rubble of industries they’ve allegedly destroyed. This asymmetrical romanticism of the past isn’t just intellectually dishonest; it’s analytically catastrophic.
Consider how this same bias manifests in your portfolio: you’re likely romanticizing past market conditions (“In the 90s, you could throw darts at tech stocks and become wealthy!”) while failing to recognize the unique constraints and opportunities of the current economic environment.
Every time you catch yourself saying, “if only I had invested in Amazon in 1997,” you’re exhibiting the same flawed thinking that makes pundits wax nostalgic about the supposed moral fiber of earlier generations.
Survivorship Bias ensures that only the most visible generational cohorts receive cultural attention.
We underestimate the economic and cultural significance of quieter historical intervals simply because they don’t fit neatly into our narrative frameworks.
History books and market commentaries focus on what stands out, not what matters.
Does this sound familiar? It should.
This is precisely how mutual fund companies advertise their products—by prominently featuring the few funds that outperformed while quietly merging away or closing the majority that underperformed.
You see the survivors, not the casualties, creating an illusory picture of both historical patterns and investment prospects. The next time someone tells you about the “typical” Boomer or Millennial, remember they’re committing the same statistical sin as a fund manager showing you only their best-performing products.
Selection Bias places generational demarcation lines at historical events chosen entirely after the fact—wars, elections, technological innovations—selected for narrative convenience rather than meaningful demographic consistency.
We didn’t know in 1964 that the last Baby Boomer had just been born; we retroactively decided that was the cutoff point. This post-hoc rationalization masquerading as analysis should send shivers down the spine of any serious investor.
This mirrors how investors justify sector rotations or asset allocation shifts after markets have moved. “Of course, it was obvious that inflation would rise after all that stimulus”—but was it evident to you when it mattered?
Or are you back-fitting a narrative to explain market movements that caught you flat-footed? Generation definitions and investment theses built on retroactive narrative construction are equally worthless.
Recency Bias slices recent generations into increasingly thinner fragments (“Xennials,” “Zillennials,” “Alpha Gen”), a product of our frenzied need to categorize the present moment with ever-greater specificity.
This obsession with micro-categorizing recent cohorts starkly contrasts with how we broadly portray earlier generations, revealing our distorted perception of time and significance. (The same thing happens with all the Top 100 of all-time lists)
The investment parallel is painfully evident: Retail investors consistently overestimate recent market performance in their forward expectations.
During the 2020-2021 everything bubble, retail investors piled into speculative assets because recent returns had been spectacular.
“This time is different” is the mating call of the recency-biased investor, just as “kids these days” is the rallying cry of the generationally confused media.
Technological Determinism gravely overemphasizes the impact of specific technologies—smartphones, social media, AI—while undervaluing the fundamental demographic and economic patterns that shape generational experiences.
Yes, digital natives interface with the world differently than their predecessors, but economic realities like housing costs, wage stagnation, and wealth inequality are far more determinative of life outcomes than TikTok and memes.
Investors make this same mistake when they fixate on innovative technologies while ignoring underlying business economics.
The graveyard of investment history is filled with revolutionary technologies housed within catastrophic business models. (WebVan, the Concorde, MoviePass)
Just as a generation can’t be defined solely by its technological environment, a company’s investment prospects can’t be evaluated solely on its technological prowess (looking at you, metaverse).
Western-Centric Bias represents perhaps the most glaring analytical failure.
Our generational definitions rarely, if ever, consider parallel shifts in Asia, Africa, or Latin America—a stunning oversight that severely limits their genuine analytical power.
A framework that ignores 85% of humanity isn’t just incomplete; it’s intellectually bankrupt.
Similarly, investors who limit their horizons to domestic markets are committing portfolio suicide by a thousand cuts.
The myopia that allows us to define global generations through a purely Western lens is identical to the parochialism that keeps retail investors overexposed to their home markets despite overwhelming evidence that international diversification improves risk-adjusted returns.
So what’s a better approach?
A better way to think about generations.
(skip this section if you’re not as autistic as I am)
Generations shouldn’t be defined by what goes viral on social media or is picked up by lazy journalists. Instead, they should emerge organically from consistent criteria, measurable shifts, and genuine inflection points in human experience.
Here’s how we’re redefining generations with actual analytical rigor:
- Standardized Timeframes (20-25 Years): This isn’t arbitrary—it aligns with fundamental demographic reality. Human reproductive cycles, educational frameworks, and career trajectories cluster around these intervals. A generation should represent the time required for a new cohort to reach maturity and influence society’s direction.
- Anchored in Meaningful Transitions: Rather than cherry-picking convenient historical events after they’ve occurred, we identify substantive demographic, economic, and technological inflection points that fundamentally altered human experience across borders. These aren’t marketing gimmicks; they’re tectonic shifts in how societies function.
- Globally Applicable: Abandoning Western exceptionalism, our framework considers developments that resonated across continents. The Industrial Revolution, telecommunications expansion, and digital transformation affected humanity globally, albeit unevenly. A generation that ignores 6 billion people isn’t a generation—it’s a parochial fantasy.
- Neutrally Descriptive Names: Instead of emotionally charged or arbitrarily assigned labels, our framework uses descriptive names that reflect the transformative forces shaping each period. Industrial, Digital, Internet, and AI generations clearly communicate the dominant forces of their times without value judgments or cultural myopia.
A Genuine Framework: Generational Overview (1200–2025)
I’ve expanded our analysis back to 1200 CE, not as an academic exercise, but because understanding long-arc historical patterns is important, actually.
Investors who recognize patterns across centuries have a deep advantage over those whose historical memory extends only to the last market cycle.
This framework gives us a robust analytical lens to understand economic cycles, technological disruptions, and investment opportunities.
What can the last 200 years of generations teach us?
Unlike the superficial caricature slop from mainstream media, these generational frameworks reveal enduring patterns informed investors can leverage today.
Speaking of slop, enjoy some AI-generated images!
Colonialism Generation (1801–1825)
This quarter-century saw the aggressive expansion of European colonial powers, particularly Britain, alongside the Napoleonic upheavals that reshaped European borders and trade relationships. The early Industrial Revolution began transforming manufacturing while Latin American independence movements created entirely new economic orders.
During this period, the foundations of modern capitalism began to crystallize. The Bank of England pioneered central banking functions while early stock exchanges formalized capital formation mechanisms. Agricultural commodities dominated international trade, with cotton, sugar, and tobacco flowing from colonies to imperial centers.
The economic landscape featured brutal wealth extraction from colonized territories, creating capital concentrations that funded industrial expansion in Europe. Simultaneously, the Napoleonic Wars demonstrated how geopolitical conflicts could reshape trade routes and commodity prices virtually overnight.
Key Investment Lesson: The emergence of new economic systems created enormous wealth and devastating displacement.
The colonizers who recognized the power of mechanized production captured generational wealth, while those who clung to traditional mercantilism gradually lost relevance.
Today, the parallels are striking—regions embracing technological transformation are experiencing an economic renaissance, while those resisting change are who turn inward face stagnation.
Book That Captures This Generation: Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice offers unparalleled insight into the socioeconomic structures of this period. Behind the marriage plots lies a sophisticated exploration of inheritance mechanisms, class mobility constraints, and wealth preservation strategies that continue to influence modern portfolio theory. Austen understood that capital preservation required both prudent management and strategic alliances—a lesson still relevant for family offices and dynastic wealth today.
Modern Application: When evaluating emerging markets or frontier economies today, consider their position in the global economic order. Are they positioned as extractive colonies for resources (with wealth flowing outward), or are they developing indigenous industrial capacity? The colonial patterns established two centuries ago still influence economic development trajectories and investment opportunities globally.
Imperialism Generation (1826–1850)
European imperial dominance intensified during this period, with the British Empire reaching unprecedented global reach.
The Opium Wars forced China to open to Western trade on profoundly unequal terms, establishing patterns of economic exploitation that would persist for decades.
In the United States, westward expansion created new markets while displacing indigenous populations.
This generation saw the “Scramble for Africa” as European powers carved up the continent, extracting resources while introducing administrative systems that would influence post-colonial economic structures for centuries.
Early railroad development revolutionized internal markets, dramatically reducing transportation costs and creating new investment asset classes.
The economic order featured increasing industrialization in Western Europe and the northeastern United States, with factory production beginning to displace artisanal manufacturing across sectors.
Early labor movements emerged in response to exploitative working conditions, foreshadowing later conflicts between capital and labor.
Key Investment Lesson: Control of critical infrastructure (railways, ports, telegraphs) created enduring competitive advantages and spectacular investment returns.
The investors who recognized that transportation networks weren’t merely physical assets but strategic control points accumulated immense wealth.
Today’s equivalent might be data infrastructure—cloud computing, fiber networks, and semiconductor production capacity.
Book That Captures This Generation:The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels provides an essential counterpoint to imperial triumphalism.
Published in 1848, it identified the contradictions within industrial capitalism that would shape economic and political conflicts for generations.
Whether you agree with its prescriptions or not, its analysis of capitalism’s creative destruction remains surprisingly relevant for understanding today’s market disruptions.
Modern Application: The imperial powers’ strategy of securing resource extraction while controlling distribution networks mirrors today’s tech platform dominance.
Companies that control critical digital infrastructure (cloud services, payment networks, app stores) extract rents from economic activity they don’t directly produce—a digital imperialism that creates similar wealth concentration patterns.
Late Industrial Generation (1851–1875)
This quarter-century saw explosive infrastructure development, with railroads expanding across continents and telegraph networks creating the first global communications system.
The economic impact was profound: Market information that once took weeks to travel could now be transmitted instantly, revolutionizing everything from commodities trading to retail distribution.
Financial institutions flourished during this period, with investment banks developing sophisticated capital formation and allocation mechanisms.
The Civil War in America transformed social and economic structures, with war bonds and currency innovations setting precedents for modern monetary policy.
Steel production advances enabled awesome construction scale, while petroleum began its ascent as a strategic resource.
Labor movements gained momentum across industrialized nations, creating new tensions between workers and owners that would shape economic policy for generations.
Key Investment Lesson: Infrastructure transitions create generational wealth opportunities, but timing is everything.
Early railroad investors saw spectacular returns, while latecomers experienced devastating losses during the Panic of 1873.
The pattern repeats across history: Transformative technologies typically experience investment manias followed by painful corrections before reaching sustainable adoption.
Book That Captures This Generation: Charles Darwin’s On the Origin of Species transcends biology to offer profound insights into competitive dynamics relevant to both natural and economic systems.
Published in 1859, it introduced evolutionary concepts that would later influence everything from corporate strategy to portfolio construction.
The notion that adaptation to changing environments determines survival applies as much to companies as to organisms.
Modern Application: Today’s energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables echoes the infrastructure revolutions of the Late Industrial Generation.
Early investors in transformative technologies often face years of losses before paradigm shifts create massive returns.
Patience and conviction—in the right transitions—are essential for capturing generational wealth opportunities.
Crisis Generation (1876–1900)
Economic instability defined this tumultuous period, with the Panic of 1893 creating widespread bank failures and unemployment.
Monopoly capitalism reached its apex with industrial titans like Rockefeller, Carnegie, and Morgan constructing unprecedented corporate empires through aggressive consolidation and occasionally predatory practices.
Technological innovation accelerated, with telephone networks, electrification, and early automobiles fundamentally changing communication and production possibilities.
Global trade expanded dramatically thanks to steam-powered shipping and refrigeration technologies, which created international markets for perishable goods.
Financial markets became increasingly sophisticated but remained vulnerable to manipulation by concentrated wealth.
The gold standard debate dominated monetary policy discussions, and deflationary pressures created tension between creditors and debtors that exploded into political conflicts.
Key Investment Lesson: Concentrating market power creates extraordinary returns for monopolists but eventually triggers a regulatory backlash that reshapes entire industries.
The robber barons who built industrial monopolies generated spectacular wealth until antitrust regulation fundamentally altered the competitive landscape. Today’s tech giants face similar regulatory scrutiny after years of unfettered expansion.
Book That Captures This Generation: The Robber Barons by Matthew Josephson unfurls an unflinching examination of American capitalism’s most ruthless phase.
Published later but covering this period comprehensively, it details how industrial consolidation created unprecedented wealth concentration and the conditions for eventual regulatory intervention.
The parallels to today’s debates about tech monopolies are obvious.
Modern Application: Market concentration in digital platforms (search, social media, e-commerce) has created monopoly-like returns for shareholders while raising concerns about competition, privacy, and political influence.
Investors must now factor regulatory risk into valuations for dominant tech companies, just as railroad and oil investors eventually faced antitrust constraints in earlier eras.
War Generation (1901–1925)
This generation experienced unprecedented global conflict, with World War I and its aftermath fundamentally reshaping economic systems and power relationships.
The Federal Reserve System was established in 1913, creating a new monetary architecture that would influence economic cycles for over a century.
Consumer credit expanded dramatically, changing consumption patterns and creating new financial instruments.
The Russian Revolution introduced state socialism as a competing economic model, influencing labor movements worldwide and creating new geopolitical tensions.
Colonial territories began asserting independence claims, gradually undermining imperial economic arrangements that had generated enormous wealth for European powers.
Financial markets experienced extraordinary volatility. War financing created new government debt instruments, while post-war reconstruction generated both inflation and investment opportunities.
Early radio networks began transforming communications and creating new advertising-based business models.
Key Investment Lesson: Wars and their aftermath create massive dislocations that destroy some forms of wealth while creating others.
Geographic diversification became essential as previously “safe” European investments evaporated during the conflicts.
Physical gold—transportable wealth independent of government promises—came into its own.
Book That Captures This Generation: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre (chronicling Jesse Livermore’s career) remains perhaps the most insightful examination of speculative psychology ever written.
Published in 1923, it demonstrates how market cycles, human psychology, and manipulative practices combusted during this volatile period.
The trading wisdom contained in this thinly veiled biography remains stunningly relevant a century later.
Modern Application: Mounting tensions between established and rising powers have created disturbing parallels between today’s geopolitical landscape and pre-WWI conditions.
Predictably myopic, the market tends to discount these tensions until they erupt into crises, creating extraordinary risks and opportunities.
Historically informed investors recognize this pattern and position accordingly, emphasizing geographic diversification beyond obvious markets, strategic inflation hedges that perform in crisis scenarios, and carefully selected tangible assets that provide both portfolio insurance and asymmetric upside during geopolitical dislocations.
While others react to headlines, you’ve got to anticipate the historical rhyme.
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If you want access, join Altea today for $99.
Boom Generation (1926–1950)
This period encompassed both devastating economic collapse and a remarkable resurgence.
The 1929 Stock Market Crash and subsequent Great Depression demonstrated the fragility of financial systems, while the New Deal introduced regulatory frameworks and social safety nets that would reshape American capitalism for generations.
The mobilization for World War II ended the Depression while creating unprecedented industrial capacity.
The Bretton Woods Agreements established a new international monetary system with the dollar as the reserve currency, while the Marshall Plan rebuilt European economies under American financial leadership.
Suburbanization began transforming American geography and consumption patterns, creating entirely new industries around automobile-centric development.
Early television technology emerged, setting the stage for revolutionary changes to advertising and information dissemination.
Key Investment Lesson: Systemic financial crises create devastating losses and extraordinary opportunities for those with available capital.
Investors who maintained liquidity during the crash and deployed it selectively during the Depression acquired quality assets at historic discounts.
Similarly, post-war reconstruction created multi-decade growth opportunities, particularly in housing, consumer goods, and infrastructure.
Book That Captures This Generation: The Great Crash 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith dissects the speculative mania that preceded the crash and the policy failures that deepened the subsequent depression.
Published in 1954, it provides some historical perspective and explodes comforting myths while identifying patterns of euphoria, leverage, and fraud that reappear in every subsequent financial crisis.
Modern Application: The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and subsequent recovery demonstrated that Galbraith’s insights remain relevant.
Central bank interventions have grown more aggressive with each crisis, creating moral hazard and potentially increasing systemic risks.
Are the companies in your portfolio too big to fail? It’s never been more difficult to know.
Digital Generation (1951–1975)
Cold War competition drove massive technology investment, with space exploration and defense spending creating innovations that would later transform civilian markets.
Early computing evolved from room-sized machines to increasingly accessible technologies, setting the stage for the information revolution.
The abandonment of the gold standard in 1971 created a new monetary regime of floating exchange rates and increased financial instability.
Oil shocks and stagflation demonstrated the vulnerability of industrial economies to resource constraints, while Japanese manufacturing excellence challenged Western industrial dominance.
Civil rights movements and feminist waves transformed labor markets and consumption patterns, creating new demographic realities for businesses and investors.
Financial deregulation began dismantling Depression-era safeguards, enabling new forms of financial engineering that dramatically increased both market efficiency and systemic risk.
Telecommunications satellites created truly global information networks, accelerating capital flows across borders.
Key Investment Lesson: Transitions between monetary regimes create extraordinary risks and opportunities.
The end of Bretton Woods unleashed inflation that devastated bond portfolios while creating windfall gains for leveraged real estate investors and commodity producers.
Investors who recognized this regime change early and positioned accordingly generated exceptional returns.
Book That Captures This Generation: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham (particularly later editions) offered a coherent philosophy for navigating increasingly volatile markets.
Its emphasis on margin of safety, valuation discipline, and psychological fortitude provided a crucial counterweight to the speculative excesses that periodically seized markets.
Graham’s focus on fundamentals rather than narratives remains essential for serious investors.
Modern Application: Today’s unprecedented monetary experiments (zero interest rates, quantitative easing, massive fiscal stimulus) represent another potential regime change.
Investors who correctly anticipate these policies’ inflationary or deflationary consequences and position accordingly may generate exceptional returns, while those blindly following playbooks from previous eras risk obsolescence.
Internet Generation (1976–2000)
Digital technologies transformed from specialized tools to ubiquitous infrastructure during this era.
Personal computers, mobile phones, and eventually the Internet created entirely new industries while disrupting established ones.
The collapse of the Soviet Union eliminated the primary competing economic system, accelerating capitalist globalization across formerly closed economies.
Financial innovation exploded with derivatives, securitization, and electronic trading, dramatically increasing market complexity and interconnectedness.
Manufacturing increasingly shifted to Asia, particularly China, fundamentally altering global trade patterns and labor markets.
The dot-com bubble and subsequent crash demonstrated both the transformative potential of digital technologies and the persistent dangers of speculative excess.
Central bank responses to financial crises became increasingly interventionist, creating moral hazard while potentially building larger systemic risks.
Climate change emerged as a physical and transition risk for long-term investors, requiring new analytical frameworks.
Key Investment Lesson: Network effects create winner-take-most markets with unprecedented scaling potential.
Companies that established dominant positions in emerging digital markets (Microsoft, Amazon, eBay) generated extraordinary returns despite interim volatility and occasional regulatory challenges.
Simultaneously, seemingly stable business models across multiple sectors disappeared with stunning rapidity when digital alternatives emerged. (Blockbuster, we barely knew ya)
Book That Captures This Generation: A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel synthesized emerging research on market efficiency and offered practical advice for individual investors.
Its examination of speculative manias—updated through multiple editions to include the dot-com bubble—provides a historical context for understanding market psychology.
The tension between efficient market theory and behavioral finance insights remains central to investment philosophy today.
Modern Application: Today’s emerging technologies (artificial intelligence, blockchain, genetic engineering) demonstrate similar scaling potential to earlier digital innovations.
Identifying which applications will generate durable economic value—versus those that consume capital without achieving profitability—remains the central challenge for technology investors.
Historical patterns suggest concentrated successes amidst numerous failures. Power Law FTW.
AI Generation (2001–2025)
Artificial intelligence and automation are transforming knowledge work just as earlier technologies transformed physical labor.
The smartphone revolution created ubiquitous computing and persistent connectivity, fundamentally altering information flows and social patterns.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 demonstrated the fragility of increasingly complex financial systems, prompting unprecedented central bank interventions.
Cryptocurrencies emerged as alternative monetary systems, challenging state monopolies on currency issuance while creating new speculative vehicles.
The climate transition accelerated, with renewable energy achieving cost parity with fossil fuels in many markets. This created both stranded asset risks and growth opportunities.
The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically accelerated digital transformation across sectors while revealing supply chain vulnerabilities.
Growing wealth inequality and political polarization created new policy uncertainties and social tensions.
China’s economic rise presented market opportunities and geopolitical challenges, forcing investors to navigate increasingly complex political considerations alongside traditional financial analysis.
Key Investment Lesson: Digitalization continues creating winner-take-most dynamics while compressing disruption timeframes.
Companies that achieved dominant platform positions (Apple, Google, Facebook) generated extraordinary returns while seemingly entrenched incumbents across sectors were rapidly displaced.
The half-life of business models continues to shorten, requiring investors to constantly reassess their competitive positioning rather than relying on historical performance.
The Book That Captures This Generation: Morgan Housel’s The Psychology of Money articulates how individual perspectives, experiences, and cognitive biases shape financial decisions—often more powerfully than technical knowledge.
Published in 2020, it synthesizes behavioral finance insights with practical wisdom about saving, investing, and risk management.
Its emphasis on the personal and emotional dimensions of finance reflects the increasing recognition that investment success requires not just analytical skill but psychological fortitude.
Modern Application: As artificial intelligence transforms knowledge work, investors face unprecedented opportunities and disruptive threats across virtually all sectors.
Historical patterns suggest that identifying which companies can successfully harness AI to create sustainable competitive advantages—versus those merely adopting buzzwords—can produce generational wealth.
Nothing here is investment advice. Do your own research. Please.
That’s all for this week; I hope you enjoyed it.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- The book links above are affiliate links. If you buy oncfvd-[p====tye I’ll get like a dollar.
