Welcome to the WC, wherein you’re trapped in my mind for eight to ten minutes weekly.
Last week, we dug into what happens to our world with abundant (nearly) free energy. Suddenly, terraforming Nevada is possible.
This week, I’m building on the theme in light of Google unveiling its quantum chip.
- What is quantum tech, and how does the chip work
- Accelerating the Energy Revolution
- Quantum Acceleration of Our Case Studies
- Second and Third Order Investment Opportunities
- Regional Winners and Losers in the Quantum-Energy Revolution
Have a read-through, and let me know what you think.
Let’s go.
Table of Contents
What is quantum tech, and how does the chip work
Imagine trying to solve a million-piece puzzle where each piece can be in multiple places simultaneously until you look at it. That’s quantum computing in a nutshell, and Google’s new Willow chip just made this puzzle-solving dramatically more practical.
Traditional computers work with bits – simple on/off switches. Quantum computers use qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously, like a spinning coin that’s both heads and tails until it lands. Willow’s breakthrough is that it can maintain these delicate quantum states longer and more reliably than ever before, with 105 qubits working together coherently.
The real magic isn’t just in the number of qubits, but in how they work together. Previous quantum computers were like orchestra members playing in different rooms – they could make music, but it wasn’t quite in sync. Willow puts all the musicians in the same concert hall, playing in perfect harmony.
What makes this chip special is its error correction. Quantum states are incredibly fragile – imagine trying to balance a pencil on its tip while the Earth shakes. Previous quantum computers struggled with errors accumulating as calculations proceeded. Willow can reduce errors exponentially as it scales up, solving a 30-year challenge in quantum computing.
To put its power in perspective, Willow completed a calculation in five minutes that would take today’s fastest supercomputers about ten septillion years – that’s longer than the universe has existed. Yet it uses a fraction of the energy, operating at near absolute zero temperatures where quantum effects dominate.
This isn’t just an incremental improvement – it’s like jumping from abacuses to modern laptops in one step. The chip can simulate complex molecular interactions, optimize vast networks, and solve mathematical problems that were previously impossible. And it does this while consuming less power than a coffee maker.
For investors, this marks the transition of quantum computing from a scientific curiosity to a practical tool. We’re entering an era where quantum advantage – the ability to solve real-world problems faster than classical computers – becomes routine rather than exceptional.
Accelerating the Energy Revolution
Our timeline was already ambitious when we looked at the path to nearly free energy last week. With Willow’s capabilities, we need to revise those projections dramatically forward. Here’s why: quantum computing attacks the three main bottlenecks in energy cost reduction – materials science, grid optimization, and manufacturing efficiency.
In materials science, Willow can simulate complex molecular interactions that determine solar cell efficiency. What previously took years of laboratory trial and error can now be computed in days. We’re seeing a potential acceleration of solar efficiency improvements by 2-3 years, with costs dropping faster than our original projections. Instead of hitting 2 cents per kilowatt-hour by 2028, we might see those prices by 2026 in optimal locations.
Grid optimization becomes exponentially more sophisticated. Traditional computers struggle to balance renewable energy integration, storage deployment, and demand management complexities, but quantum computing can optimize these systems in real time, potentially improving grid efficiency by an additional 15-20% beyond our previous estimates. This translates to faster adoption rates and lower system costs.
Finally, Manufacturing processes for everything from solar panels to batteries can now be optimized at the atomic level. Willow’s ability to simulate quantum mechanical effects means we can design better catalysts, more efficient production methods, and more durable materials. Early estimates suggest this could reduce production costs by an additional 20-30% compared to classical optimization methods.
Let’s put this in numbers:
- Original 2026 projection: 5.5¢/kWh
- Quantum-accelerated 2026 projection: 4.2¢/kWh
- Original 2028 projection: 1.8¢/kWh
- Quantum-accelerated 2028 projection: 1.2¢/kWh
The compounding effect is crucial here. Each improvement in energy costs makes quantum computing more accessible, accelerating energy innovation. We’re looking at a positive feedback loop that could compress our original decade-long timeline into 5-7 years.
Quantum Acceleration of Our Case Studies
Integrating Willow’s quantum capabilities with nearly free energy dramatically accelerates the case studies we reviewed last week.
Let’s look at how quantum computing reshapes the timelines and possibilities for Nevada and Saudi Arabia’s transformation.
Terraforming Nevada gets supercharged in three critical areas.
First, quantum simulation of water systems enables precise optimization of the proposed coastal desalination network. Original estimates suggested we’d need $50-60 billion in infrastructure to move sufficient water over the Sierra Nevada. But quantum-optimized fluid dynamics and energy systems could reduce this by 30-40%, while increasing capacity by 25%. Timeline acceleration: 2-3 years off our original 2030 target.
Second and more importantly, quantum computing transforms soil rehabilitation. Instead of decades-long traditional processes, quantum simulation of soil chemistry enables targeted interventions. We can model complex interactions between minerals, microorganisms, and plant life, optimizing soil enhancement protocols that would have taken generations of trial and error. What was a 15-20 year process could now be achieved in 7-10 years.
Finally, climate modification infrastructure, the third pillar of Nevada’s transformation, becomes far more sophisticated. Quantum weather modeling enables precise prediction and control of microclimates. The original plan for basic shade structures evolves into an intelligent climate control system that can maintain optimal conditions year-round, using 40% less energy than conventional approaches.
Quantum computing unlocks even more dramatic possibilities for Saudi Arabia’s transformation. The original plan for solar-powered cooling systems evolves into a quantum-optimized network of climate control infrastructure. Simulating atmospheric dynamics at unprecedented scales allows us to design systems that modify temperature and humidity across entire cities using 60% less energy than our original estimates.
The kingdom’s manufacturing revolution accelerates similarly. Quantum simulation enables the design of new materials optimized for desert conditions – everything from better solar panels to more efficient building materials. The timeline for establishing advanced manufacturing capabilities compresses from 8-10 years to 4-5 years.
Most significantly, Saudi Arabia’s space industry ambitions get a significant boost. Quantum computing’s ability to simulate complex aerospace systems and materials means we can virtually design and test launch systems. What was a 15-20 year timeline to establish a significant space industry presence could now be achieved in 7-8 years.
The compounding effects are what make this genuinely revolutionary. Each quantum-enabled breakthrough feeds into others: better materials enable more efficient climate control, which allows more advanced manufacturing, which enables better materials, and so on. We’re not just seeing linear acceleration but exponential improvement in capabilities.
Second and Third Order Investment Opportunities
While everyone’s watching quantum computing and energy stocks, the real opportunities lie in the ripple effects. Let’s explore the less obvious winners and losers in this accelerated future.
Insurance and Reinsurance (Major Boost) The combination of quantum computing and cheap energy revolutionizes risk modeling. Companies like Munich Re and Swiss Re can now model climate risks with unprecedented accuracy. More importantly, they can design new insurance products for previously uninsurable risks. Think coverage for solar yield guarantees or battery degradation insurance. Potential sector growth: 200-300% in 5 years.
Agricultural Real Estate (Mixed Impact) Traditional farmland values face pressure as vertical farming becomes more viable. However, land near energy infrastructure or with good solar exposure becomes premium property. The key is water rights – quantum-optimized desalination makes previously marginal land valuable if water rights are secured. Focus on regions with strong water rights frameworks.
Some specific examples:
- Western United States (e.g., Arizona, Nevada, California)
- Australia (Murray-Darling Basin Framework)
- Israel (National Water Law of 1959)
- European Union (Water Framework Directive)
- Chile (Water Code of 1981)
- South Africa (National Water Act of 1998)
- Canada (British Columbia Water Sustainability Act)
Logistics and Warehousing (Major Transformation) Quantum-optimized supply chains and nearly free energy change the geography of storage. Cold chain becomes cheap enough for any product. Companies like Prologis need to rethink facility locations completely. The winners will be those who secure rights near quantum-optimized transportation nodes.
Education Technology (Unexpected Winner): Quantum computing’s complexity creates massive demand for specialized training. But the real opportunity is in platforms that can teach quantum-classical hybrid optimization.
Quantum-classical hybrid optimization refers to combining quantum computing’s unique capabilities with classical computing to solve complex problems more efficiently than either could alone. This hybrid approach leverages quantum computers for tasks they excel at, such as solving optimization and simulation problems, while using classical computers to handle less complex tasks or processes that quantum systems currently struggle with.
This technique could be very powerful, but there’s a big skills gap:
- There aren’t enough engineers, developers, or scientists who understand both quantum algorithms and classical computational infrastructure.
- Existing quantum education focuses heavily on theory instead of applied hybrid solutions.
Companies that can bridge this knowledge gap could see 400-500% growth in 3 years.
Construction Materials (Stealth Winner) Quantum-designed materials combined with cheap energy enable entirely new building methods. Companies that can manufacture quantum-designed metamaterials at scale could dominate. Look for partnerships between traditional manufacturers and quantum material design firms.
Regional Winners and Losers in the Quantum-Energy Revolution
The emergence of quantum computing combined with nearly free energy will fundamentally reshape global economic geography even more so than we discussed last week.
Three distinct categories of regions are emerging
- established leaders pushing further ahead
- rapid accelerators seizing new opportunities, and
- regions at risk of being left behind.
The Leaders The U.S. Southwest stands at the forefront of this revolution, particularly the Arizona-New Mexico-Texas corridor. This region combines exceptional solar resources with an established tech base and, crucially, the regulatory framework to capitalize on both. We’re already seeing the emergence of integrated industrial parks that combine quantum computing facilities with vast solar farms, creating self-reinforcing tech hubs.
Despite its small size, Singapore is positioning itself as Asia’s quantum financial center. Its world-class business environment and advanced infrastructure make it ideal for developing quantum-enabled financial products and services.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia round out the leadership group, leveraging their capital availability and solar resources to build quantum-optimized energy export infrastructure. Their aggressive investment in education and technology suggests they’re serious about maintaining this position.
The Accelerators Australia emerges as a fascinating case study in rapid adaptation. While not currently a quantum computing leader, its combination of vast natural resources and research capabilities position it perfectly for quantum-optimized mining and energy export operations.
Israel, with its strong tech ecosystem and quantum research base, is focusing on specialized applications, particularly in water management and agricultural technology. Their success in these niches could provide a template for other regions looking to find their quantum-energy specialization.
India’s software development capabilities and large talent pool position it well for quantum software development, though infrastructure challenges remain.
Regions at Risk Traditional oil economies without serious diversification plans face the greatest threats. Venezuela, Nigeria, and parts of Russia risk being left with stranded assets and declining strategic importance.
Northern European industrial centers, particularly the German industrial heartland and Northern Italy, face a serious energy cost disadvantage that quantum computing alone can’t solve.
Most concerning are coal-dependent regions in Eastern Europe and parts of China, where the combined challenge of stranded assets and environmental cleanup costs creates a perfect storm of economic pressure.
Investment Strategy The most compelling opportunities lie in regions where quantum computing and cheap energy create new possibilities rather than just optimizing existing ones.
The U.S. Southwest offers perhaps the clearest example, where real estate near quantum-solar hubs could appreciate dramatically as these facilities attract satellite industries and support services.
Singapore’s financial infrastructure investments offer another clear pathway, particularly in quantum-secure financial products and advanced trading systems.
Investments in the accelerator regions are more speculative but potentially more rewarding.
Australian resource processing facilities equipped with quantum optimization capabilities could revolutionize the mining industry.
As climate change intensifies global water stress, Israeli water technology enhanced by quantum computing could prove crucial.
These are riskier but offer the potential for extraordinary returns as these regions establish leadership in their chosen niches.
The highest risk-reward opportunities lie in regions currently at risk but with potential for transformation. African quantum-enabled agricultural projects, South American lithium processing facilities, and Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs all look tasty, but success depends heavily on uncertain policy decisions and infrastructure development.
For high-net-worth investors, the key is understanding how these regional transformations create opportunities beyond direct technology investments.
Rights to quantum-enabled infrastructure development, early access to quantum-solar industrial parks, and water rights in transforming regions could prove more valuable than direct technology investments.
That’s all for this week; I hope you enjoyed it.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- Our pals at Melograno brought this issue to you.
