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Today we have a deep dive into a 2018-19 Luka Doncic Rookie Jersey that is IPOing on Collectable Sunday May 30th at 6 PM EST.
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Luka Doncic Rookie Game Worn Jersey
About the Asset
This is a game-used (unsigned) Luka Doncic jersey from his rookie season that has been photo matched to 9 games between December 30th, 2018 and March 8th, 2019. It was originally purchased from Heritage for $54,000 in October. The LOA in the Heritage auction says the serial # is DALW 01904 and was worn March 8th, 2019, which is the same serial # and game date as the LOA that Collectable posted.
We reached out to Collectable’s CEO, Ezra Levine, about the valuation and he responded:
Aside from Luka’s first career start jersey, which Luka owns, this is his most significant rookie jersey given heaviest worn (9 games) and the accomplishments while wearing it.
Since late 2020/early 2021, There have been big sales happening of modern game worn in private markets leading up to our valuation, and then culminating in the $3.69m Kobe jersey from his rookie season. That Kobe jersey was photomatched to 4 games.
Also the Luka 1/1 $4m+ Card sale re-rated the market much higher. Another Luka National Treasures gold with a jersey patch sold for over $600k.
From our intel, we’re seeing real momentum shift into game worn and believe this will continue as a value play.”
If you were signed up to Insider (start a free trial), you’d also learn:
- Projected future growth
- Asset class ROI, volatility and risk statistics
- Detailed valuation with recent sales
- Our verdict
About the Drop
This asset will drop on Collectable at 6 PM EST on May 30th for $499,000. There is no retained equity. Collectable have been scheduling their assets for trading around 60 days after the IPO funds and from that point it trades every weekday.
Add IPO to calendar
About Luka Doncic
Wyatt wrote about Doncic back in March — to sum it up, in his 3rd season and at age 22, Doncic is arguably the best young player in the NBA. He won Rookie of the Year, he made the All-NBA 1st team in his second season, and is now a legit MVP candidate (he finished 4th last year and is likely to be top-5 this year). Barring injury, he’ll be a perennial All-Star, MVP candidate and is certainly ticketed for the Hall of Fame. If there’s one young player’s memorabilia to invest in now, it’s Luka.
Recent Sales and Current Valuation
The sports memorabilia category had a -8% ROI in Q1 2021.
Growth Potential and Future Catalysts
Doncic’s career is on the rise, and if the Mavericks make a deep run in this year’s playoffs it will boost his collectibles market in the short-term. With his talent, at some point in his career he’s pretty likely to make an NBA Finals and/or win a title. It’s no guarantee, but it’s a solid bet that his memorabilia will continue to increase in value.
That being said, there are going to be an awful lot of Doncic game-worn jerseys floating around by the time he’s done. There already are. The NBA pretty much is hoarding and auctioning everything and sure, it being his rookie year is special, but there are 73 other games worth of jerseys out there (including his debut jersey as stated above).
What it comes down to is whether you trust the historical data or whether you trust Collectable’s valuation.