Welcome to Sports Cards. We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.
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Today is a deep dive into three assets IPO’ing on Collectable (2) and Otis:
- Kylian Mbappe 2018 Prizm Orange Refractor /65 PSA 10 – IPOs 12th March on Otis
- Ronald Acuna 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto /50 BGS 9.5- IPOs 12th March on Collectable
- 1969 Topps Basketball Set – IPOs 14th March on Collectable
What is the Kylian Mbappe 2018 Prizm Orange Refractor /65 PSA 10?
This is an orange refractor card from the 2018 Prizm set commemorating the World Cup. There are 65 Kylian Mbappe orange refractors of which ten are rated PSA 10. It’s worth noting that while this card is one of only 65 orange refractors, there are no fewer than 20 different parallels in this set, including:Silver, Hyper, Lazer, Mojo, Red Mosaic, Black/Gold Wave, Green/Orange Wave, Red/Blue Wave, Blue #/199, Red #/149, Light Blue Lazer #/125, Purple #/99, Orange #/65, Pink Lazer #/40, Green Crystals #/25, Camo #/20, Gold Lazer #/15, Gold #/10, Gold Power #/5, Blue Shimmer #/5 (FOTL), Black 1/1.
Green crystals sounds fun.
It IPOs on Otis 12th March
Cultural Relevance
Just 22 years old, Kylian Mbappe is considered one of the two best young footballers in the world and probably one of the top five overall. Currently playing for French powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain, Mbappe is set for a transfer either this summer or the next (when his contract expires).
Wherever he goes, and there’s no shortage of suitors, he will walk into the starting eleven from day one. Along with Norwegian twenty-year-old Erling Haaland, Mbappe is a generational talent set to define the next decade of football.
This chart gives some context to his global appeal relative to some names you may be more familiar with.
He’s the 34th highest paid athlete in the world, making $34m as of 2000. This is almost certain to increase when he changes clubs this summer or next. Further, at $198m, he’s rated as the most valuable footballer in the world (generally based on age, ability, potential, and time left on his contract).
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
We need to get creative to value this card.
Otis paid $21k for it at Goldin in January, which is our first data point.
Goldin further auctioned off two more orange refractors on 7th March for [Insiders Only] each.
The only other publicly available data we have on orange refractors specifically is a more-recent sale for $14k at the end of February.
Of those twenty-odd refractors mentioned above, we have decent data for five of the population-limited versions. With those, we can begin to paint a broader picture.
Notably, we have a clear trend line moving up, but that’s just about the only theme we can extract here, as sale prices bounce all over the place even for the same variant. Look at Red (149) as an example.. $5k, $9k, $8k, $7k. Oh and look at that blue refractor (/199) from the March 2021 Goldin auction, which inexplicably sold for [Insiders Only], just [Insiders Only] less than the much rarer orange refractors. Also, a pair of reds (/149) sold for [Insiders Only] combined.
This all paints a strange picture.
If we smooth things out a bit by creating inferred values (sale price adjusted for population) for all the sales, thing look slightly more sensible though the [Insiders Only] blue refractor does give us an odd spike at the end.
That trend line, as well as the inferred values derived from recent data points, gives us an inferred value of around [Insiders Only], which is slightly [Insiders Only] than the recent oranges at auction but does account for an upward trend. This feels right.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 67% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
The soccer card subcategory has returned [Insiders Only]% ROI across the portfolio.
Risk Profile
The soccer card subcategory has returned [Insiders Only]% standard deviation across the portfolio, which is moderately [Insiders Only]. Lower is better.
Recent Growth Trend
His base rookie card has appreciated [Insiders Only] over the last twelve months.
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Three big catalysts coming up for Mbappe:
- The Euros this summer (rescheduled from 2020)
- The World Cup in 2022
- His imminent move away from PSG
Further, he has a LOT of room to catch up to the likes of Messi and Ronaldo in terms of both popularity and card values.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 30 day lockup period then will trade daily
Platform Risk
Otis is [Insiders Only] transparent
Intangibles
He *might* go to Liverpool, which would be ace.
Disclosure: I will probably buy shares of this card
Ronald Acuna 2017 Bowman Chrome Auto /50 BGS 9.5?
This is a limited run /50 signed refractor for Ronald Acuna, a rising MLB star. BGS lists 45 these cards of which 34 received 9.5 and 8 were rated as 10/10. Worth noting there are probably fewer than 34 9.5s as some were almost certainly submitted more than once trying to get a higher grade.
It IPOs on Otis 12th March.
Cultural Relevance
Acuna, a Venezuela native, made his MLB debut in 2018 and won the National League Rookie of the Year award. The following year, he was selected as an All Star, won the Silver Slugger Award, and was the NL stolen base leader. He plays for the Atlanta Braves.
Acuna’s hitting style has been compared to Roberto Clemente. which obviously bodes well for him. He’s quite good in the field as well.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
Because the population of BGS 9.5s is so high, we have quite a few comps, which is nice. Unfortunately, these comps are quite weird, as the prices realised bounce around quite a lot due to the variance of subgrades.
Look at these recent sales and see if you can spot an annoying pattern:
There are a cluster of sales around [Insiders Only] and another cluster between [Insiders Only]. When plotted against our comp card, his base rookie card of the same set, we get an average multiple of [Insiders Only]. However, using these two clumps, we get a high multiple of [Insiders Only], and a low multiple of [Insiders Only].
His base card is currently worth $450, which gives us lots of valuation options:
- Low: $[Insiders Only]
- Average: $[Insiders Only]
- High: $[Insiders Only]
I’ve taken the average of the comps but thought it was worth including all three options so you can make up your own mind.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 67% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
The baseball cards subcategory has returned [Insiders Only]% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Risk Profile
The baseball cards subcategory has returned a standard deviation of [Insiders Only]% ROI, which is very high.
Recent Growth Trend
His base card has returned [Insiders Only]% over the last twelve months.
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
He’s young and has a lot of room to grow. The Braves are meant to be very good in 2021, and a World Series would certainly help.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade weekly.
Platform Risk
Collectable is [Insiders Only] transparent and well-capitalised.
Intangibles
His brother is in the Rangers minor league system.
What is the 1969 Topps NBA complete set?
This is a complete set of all 99 cards in the 1969 Topps NBA set. A bit like the 1986 Fleer set, it was the first nationally-issued set in years, and so it contains the first cards for several players. In all, there are over two dozen hall of famers in the set.
The set comprises PSA grades 8 – 9, though nearly 3/4 of the cards are at the higher end. Unfortunately, three of the five most valuable cards — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, and the checklist, are all PSA 8s. Decently-graded checklists are so valuable because it was at the bottom right of the print sheet and got damaged a lot.
Other notable names in the set include Walt Frazier (PSA 9), John Havlicek (9), Connie Hawkins (9), Jerry West (9), Walt Hazzard (9) and Oscar Robertson (8), among several others.
It IPOs on Collectable 14th March.
Cultural Relevance
As I said above, there are over two dozen hall of famers in the set, including Abdul-Jabbar’s rookie card. It’s one of the most important basketball card sets out there.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
The set’s value is dominated by card number 25, Abdul-Jabbar’s rookie card. Even though the card included here is only PSA 8, it still comprises nearly half the set’s value with a recent valuation of $[Insiders Only].
After a very time-consuming sum-of-parts valuation exercise (you’re welcome), we come up with around $[Insiders Only] for the entire set.
The cards contributing the lion’s share of value include:
- Abdul-Jabbar: $[Insiders Only]
- Havlicek: $[Insiders Only]
- Frazier: $[Insiders Only]
- Chamberlain: $[Insiders Only]
- Checklist: $[Insiders Only]
- Hawkins: $[Insiders Only]
Worth noting the seller is retaining $40,500 equity, which is around 27%. 30% retained equity is around where I draw the line for my own investments, so this one is sort of ok.
Inferred value = $[Insiders Only]
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 67% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
The basketball cards subcategory has returned [Insiders Only]% ROI so far across the entire portfolio
Risk Profile
Standard deviation for all NBA basketball transactions has been [Insiders Only]%, which is very high. Lower is better.
Recent Growth Trend
Most of these cards have [Insiders Only] over the last twelve months. Abdul-Jabbar has [Insiders Only].
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Despite the recent growth, I believe this set has a lot of room to run. Modern NBA cards have been taking a beating as investors look for quality vintage.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade weekly
Platform Risk
Collectable is [Insiders Only] transparent and well-capitalised.
Intangibles
Amassing this set must have taken years.
Disclosure: I will probably buy shares of this set
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