Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
If you’re into music and like money, you should consider joining us in Nashville this October.
Why?
Nashville has become the global center of music culture, production, and innovation.
Not New York, not London, not LA. Nashville.
The legendary city is oozing with music culture, including countless famous venues, recording studios, museums, and festivals.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: US inflation cooled for a third straight month
- Real Estate: Hartford was the hottest market for home sales
- Startups: North American startup funding jumped 35%
- Private Credit: Central Park Tower secured a $1.2 billion loan
- Crypto: Germany sold hundreds of millions in seized bitcoin
- NFTs: Global NFT sales surged 7.69% over the past week
- Art: A professor trained AI to distinguish Pollock’s paintings
- Vintage Autos: GM invested $900 million into Lansing
- Coins: The 1894-S Barber Dime sold for $1,997,500
- Farmland: A farm near Tuscola, IL sold for $22,200 per acre
- Luxury: LVMH spent $2.66 billion on real estate globally
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Global spirits volumes fell 7.6%
- Film & Music: Spotify reached $62.5 billion in revenue.
- Precious Metals: The Stainless MMI dropped 10.88%
- Collectibles: Toki secured $1.8 million in pre-seed funding
- Websites: Sedo sold the domain x.game for $160,000
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- US inflation cooled for a third straight month in June, with consumer prices declining 0.1% from May.
- Traditional asset managers reasserted influence in 2024, creating the healthiest equity market in five years.
- Mortgage rates drifted down this week during optimism for a Fed rate cut, potentially slipping below 7% this year.
- South Africa’s GDP reached over $373 billion in 2024, the highest in Africa, followed by Egypt at $347.6 billion.
- China’s exports grew at their fastest pace in 15 months in June at 8.6% year-on-year, while imports shrank 2.3%.
- Putin signed a law raising income taxes for the wealthy, estimated to bring in an additional 2.6 trillion rubles in 2025.
- BP’s Energy Outlook 2024 announced the exploration of the Current Trajectory and Net Zero scenarios for the energy transition to 2050.
Bearish News
- The US dollar experienced its first back-to-back weekly loss since April due to slowing macro data.
- Nearly 40% of ECB staff are at risk of burnout, with 9.1% experiencing suicidal thoughts.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted a slowing job market on Tuesday, signaling potential rate cuts.
- Barclays switched to a central staffing model for junior bankers in Europe, raising concerns.
- Despite a strong economy, Americans remain negative about the overall economic situation.
- Three diagnostics labs have agreed to pay $2.45 million to resolve False Claims Act allegations.
What are the odds?
Odds of rate cuts have shot up since last week, and that’s likely going to climb higher today after Saturday’s insanity.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
Alts 1 is Open
After a strong few quarters, we’re opening Alts 1 to new investors [Announcement here].*
Obviously, we’re biased on this one, but it’s worth considering if you want a wide variety of alternative assets that are reasonably uncorrelated to broader markets.
If this is your sort of thing but don’t want to do all the due diligence yourself, I encourage you to:
If you’re ready, you can also
Or book a call with me to discuss.
* If you’ve already invested and want to double down, please stand by. We’re busy porting over your previous commitments to the new platform.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Denver’s housing market showed resilience in June 2024, with new listings up 33.88% year-over-year.
- Florida property insurers have seen improvements in the reinsurance market, affecting homeowners’ premiums.
- Seattle’s housing market has shifted from a strong seller’s market to a more balanced one.
- San Francisco has benefitted from the AI boom, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Scale AI having recently signed big leases.
- Hartford was the hottest market for home sales in June, according to a national real estate review.
- Expert forecasts predict moderate home price growth, with CoreLogic expecting a 3.1% increase year-over-year.
Bearish News
- In 2023, 26% of REALTORS® cited a lack of inventory and affordability, causing sales to drop to 1995 levels.
- Expert warns of a “massive housing bubble” in the South, with new homes nearing 300,000 and prices far above what locals can afford.
- South Bay property values rose slowly due to a weakening commercial market and frequent foreclosures.
- A Parker County man was charged with theft after neglecting to complete a $23,000 home remodel.
- Tampa ranks second in the US for a cooling housing market due to natural disasters and new construction.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Chat GPT, welcome to San Fran.
Startups
Bullish News
- Startup valuations rebounded to all-time highs in H1 2024, with AI startups receiving significantly higher valuations.
- North American startup funding jumped 35% year-over-year to $45.3 billion in Q2 2024.
- Elon Musk’s xAI accounted for over a quarter of all early-stage funding.
- AI startup funding more than doubled to $24 billion in Q2 2024, with five of six billion-dollar rounds going to AI companies like xAI and CoreWeave.
- Kraft Heinz and AI company NotCo formed a joint venture to quickly create plant-based alternatives to traditional products.
- AWS launched the $230 million GenAI Loft Tour to accelerate AI innovation in startup and developer communities worldwide.
- Health tech startups raised $5.7 billion in H1 2024, on pace to exceed the $10.7 billion raised in 2023.
Bearish News
- US startups saw more VC funding in Q2 2024, but deal numbers were significantly lower due to a few giant AI deals.
- Middle East and North Africa startups raised $768 million in H1 2024, a 34% drop year-on-year due to fewer mega rounds.
- DoorDash is increasing efforts to identify dangerous delivery drivers; New York seized 13,000 unregistered or law-breaking scooters and mopeds this year.
- Asia saw its worst venture funding quarter since Q4 2015, raising only $14.6 billion, a 24% decline from Q1.
- An Airbnb employee testified about 35,000 customer support tickets related to hidden security cameras or audio recording devices from 2013-2023.
- Chris Kirchner, founder of Goldman Sachs-backed Slync, was sentenced to 20 years for fraud and laundering millions in startup funds.
How to invest in startups right now:
When did we start enforcing laws about mopeds? Let the delivery drivers drive.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Manulife Investment Management closed $810 million in commitments to Manulife Private Equity Partners II, L.P.
- The global number of family offices surged 21% last year to 4,592, with growing interest in alternative assets.
- The NFL announced consideration of allowing minority PE ownership of up to 10% for its 32 teams.
- Nasuni confirmed a new majority investment led by Vista Equity, valuing the company at $1.2 billion.
- PE firms announced plans to partner with neuroscience companies to develop new treatments for neurological disorders.
- Extell Development’s Central Park Tower secured a $1.2 billion loan from JVP Management to refinance 50 West 66th Street.
- Athletic Brewing Company closed a $50 million equity financing round led by General Atlantic.
Bearish News
- Senator Murphy highlighted that PE firms’ growing involvement in healthcare is driving up prices and reducing quality.
- US PE exits dropped to $141.4 billion in H1 2024, down from 2021’s $828 billion peak.
- Scammers exploited Advent International’s name in a WhatsApp investment fraud scheme following a “pump-and-dump” pattern.
- The median time for US PE funds to close rose to 18.1 months in H1 2024, up from 11.2 months in 2022.
- CVC Capital’s India head Amit Soni has left, marking the second major exit this year after raising a $6.8 billion Asia fund.
- Polychain accused ex-general partner Niraj Pant of an undisclosed $13.3 million side deal with Eclipse Labs.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Family Offices are on the rise.
Crypto
Bullish News
- A whale withdrew $4 million in AAVE and UNI from Kraken, now holding $23.7 million in the tokens.
- The SEC has begun to allow banks and brokerages to avoid reporting customers’ crypto holdings on balance sheets if they offset risks.
- TON Applications Chain (TAC) has begun building an EVM-compatible layer-2 network for TON Blockchain.
- Ripple (XRP) is set to reach $1 by 2025 despite recent volatility.
- JPMorgan expects the crypto market to rebound from August, with liquidations ending by July.
Bearish News
- Huione Guarantee enabled $11 billion in crypto scam transactions over three years, mainly pig butchering scams.
- Residents near a Texas Bitcoin mining facility report health issues linked to excessive noise pollution exceeding legal limits.
- Germany’s government sold hundreds of millions in seized bitcoin, contributing to a four-month low sell-off.
- France’s left-wing election win may upend crypto tax cuts, with the party planning to expand capital gains taxes on crypto.
- Chainalysis reported nearly $100 billion laundered from off-chain crimes since 2019, increasingly through cryptocurrencies.
- Crypto exchange spot volumes dipped 20% in June to $812 billion, with persistent selling pressure expected.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Everything’s bigger in Texas, even the bitcoin mines.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Global NFT sales surged 7.69% over the past week, reaching $108 million in trading volume.
- NFTs are set to revolutionize sports betting, with the market projected to grow at 18.21% CAGR.
- GoMining introduced NFT miners, allowing Bitcoin mining without extensive infrastructure, promising a 12-18 month payback.
- MOCA, a token for Mocaverse NFT holders, debuted at a $72 million market cap and rallied 41% to $102 million.
- Christie’s Art+Tech Summit on July 17th will feature artists like Refik Anadol, Beeple, and Sasha Stiles, exploring tech and art intersections.
- DeFi.Gold announced two memecoins, Flurbo and Schmeckle, and launched its decentralized NFT marketplace on Bitcoin Testnet.
- Glenfiddich Distillery, with BlockBar, announced the release of a rare 1985 cask bottling via NFT auction, estimated at $750 thousand-$1.2 million.
Bearish News
- Crypto thieves stole $1.38 billion in crypto this year, more than double the amount stolen in 2023.
- A class action alleging DraftKings NFTs are “securities” survived a dismissal motion, citing reinvestment and marketplace success.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
It’s time to consider hiring some Crypto Bodyguards.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Andy Warhol’s “Mao” painting, priced over $100 million, is on the market at Gagosian.
- A University of Oregon professor trained AI to distinguish genuine from imitation Jackson Pollock paintings with 99% accuracy.
- UNESCO launched an emergency mission to assess cultural heritage in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, following severe flooding affecting 2.3 million people.
- Royal Academy of Arts will host the first exhibition pairing Anselm Kiefer and Vincent van Gogh in the summer of 2025.
- Brera Modern Art Museum in Milan is set to open this fall, 52 years after it was first envisioned, showcasing over 100 contemporary works.
Bearish News
- The New Orleans’ art market has been threatened by a law requiring upfront payment of a percentage of a $10,000-$20,000 bond.
- A former NOPD officer pleaded not guilty to aiding Fouad Zeton in a fraudulent art heist scheme.
- A family was sentenced for selling over $1 million in fake Alaska Native goods made in the Philippines.
- $6,000 worth of art was stolen from Mellwood Art Center in Louisville before Jason Lois’ solo exhibit.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I’ll need some Mao money to afford that Warhol.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- GAA Classic Cars is set to showcase 750 collector vehicles at its upcoming auction event on July 25-27.
- The Goodguys 33rd annual Speedway Motors Heartland National attracted record-breaking attendance on Sunday.
- The Electric Classic Car Market is estimated to increase at a growth rate of 13.2% CAGR from 2024 to 2030.
- Voitures Extravert, a Dutch company, produced bespoke electric versions of the iconic Porsche 911.
- The American Automobile Experience in Kearney opened a new display of custom vintage Fords and Lincolns owned by James Hetfield of Metallica.
Bearish News
- Eight men were charged with stealing $1.5 million worth of luxury cars by posing as customers at 20 dealerships between May and September.
- The rise of Facebook Groups has led to the elimination of most vintage car enthusiast forums.
- Car dealerships in Macomb County are on alert after a series of nighttime thefts.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Now’s a great time to hit a showcase.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- A 1957-D Franklin half-dollar graded MS-67 Full Bell Lines sold for $6,600 at a June 2024 Stack’s Bowers auction.
- Two of the finer Double Eagles insured for $10 million will be featured at the ANA 2024 Chicago World’s Fair of Money.
- More than £90,000 of funding has been allocated to research the Le Câtillon II coin hoard, the world’s largest Celtic coin hoard discovered in Jersey in 2012.
- The 1894-S Barber Dime, one of the rarest and most valuable US coins, sold for $1,997,500 at a 2016 auction.
- The Vatican Mint and Treasury of the Holy See launched two new collector coins to mark the 750th anniversary of the death of Saint Thomas Aquinas.
Bearish News
- Spanish authorities arrested six people for excavating hundreds of Roman coins and artifacts in Cáceres.
- A Brazilian artist secretly replaced a historic coin at the British Museum with a replica, sparking a police investigation.
- Courts have held that coin show promoters have no legal duty to protect dealers’ or collectors’ property on the bourse floor.
- A man was arrested and held without bail for smashing a window and stealing cash from a West Lebanon coin store.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Time to double-check your dimes.
Farmland
Bullish News
- A farm near Tuscola, Illinois sold for $22,200 per acre, marking the 10th farm in the state to sell for over $20,000 an acre this year.
- Growers Edge expanded its farmland valuation tool, RangeAg, to cover over 144 million acres or over 50% of all federally-insured farmland in the US.
- Pennsylvania introduced agriculture innovation bills that distribute grants of $2 million to agricultural support services.
- Connecticut had a record year preserving farms, with the Department of Agriculture protecting 1,560 acres in 2023.
- The House Appropriations Committee approved the FY 2025 Agriculture Appropriations Act, providing $25.8 billion to support farmers.
- Nebraska farmland values reached a record average of $4,015 per acre for the 12 months ending February 1.
- The Saratoga County Board of Supervisors in New York awarded $604,306 in funding to preserve ~200 acres of farmland in 2024.
Bearish News
- Farmland values showed signs of settling, with single-digit decreases in specific areas.
- St. Joseph County, Indiana lost almost 8,000 acres of agricultural land due to development.
- Farmland values in southern Minnesota have weakened in the last three months, with some parcels seeing downward price adjustments.
- A group advocating against Waterloo’s plan to buy farmland in Wilmot Township had 18 of 21 freedom of information requests denied.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Who knew a Tuscola acre could be so valuable?
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- The secondhand hard luxury goods market is projected to reach up to $50 billion by 2034.
- Louis Vuitton and Hermès raised prices on select items in China by up to 21.5%, following LVMH’s record $86.2 billion revenue in 2023.
- Luxury brand LVMH spent about $2.66 billion on real estate globally in 2023.
- Amazon took a minority stake in the new $2.65 billion luxury department store confab Saks Global.
- Alitheon’s FeaturePrint technology will be integrated into ORDRE Group’s Authentique platform to authenticate luxury products.
Bearish News
- Burberry is gearing up to cut hundreds of jobs during a 36% year-to-date stock decline and a 25% decrease in adjusted operating profit.
- LVMH’s stock dipped by over 3% following France’s parliamentary election results.
- Burglars stole $380,000 worth of luxury merchandise on Wednesday from Caroline’s Fashion Luxuries in Margate, New Jersey.
- Bonhams was forced to clarify its charity auction practices after complaints about taking a “buyer’s premium” from a recent sale.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Buyers premium… this guy should work for Airbnb.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Spirits are set to overtake wine in global sales volume, accounting for 40% of beverage alcohol sales value in 2022.
- The global port wine market is expected to reach $774.7 million by 2030.
- Taylor Swift’s love for white wine may be impacting wine sales trends, with white wine’s share in the US increasing to 43.8% in value.
- Western Oregon University’s Abby’s House received a $50,000 grant from Spirit Mountain Community Fund to support community needs.
Bearish News
- Many California vineyards could be forced to abandon this harvest as growers struggle to sell grapes, with June listings up 93% from 2023.
- Vietnam’s Finance Ministry announced plans for a phased tax hike on alcohol to 100% by 2030.
- Global on-trade spirits volumes declined by 7.6% in the year to January 2024.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
I’ll have what she’s (Taylor Swift) having.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Spotify overtook Universal Music Group to become the biggest music industry company in market capitalization terms in Q2 2024, reaching $62.5 billion.
- The US Copyright Office finalized a new rule ensuring songwriters who invoke termination rights will get paid streaming royalties.
- Shareholders of Hipgnosis Songs Fund voted to accept a $1.6 billion takeover from Blackstone.
- Fallback Studios agreed to purchase a 250,000-square-foot building in Dublin for $20 million.
- Universal Music Group merged its Island and EMI label divisions.
- DNEG Group acquired Prime Focus Technologies, an AI-powered media tech company.
Bearish News
- A fire in Rio de Janeiro destroyed the Casa Warner exhibition, which featured props from Warner Bros. films and TV shows.
- Spotify sent warnings to bands like Hallelujah the Hills about the “artificial streaming” of their songs.
- Kevin Costner’s Western film “Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 2” was pulled from its August theatrical release after a lack of earnings from Chapter 1.
- Los Angeles’ legendary recording studios are fading out due to real estate issues and rising costs.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Can’t say I remember hearing about Horizon…
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Silver’s industrial demand reached a record 654.4 million ounces in 2023.
- International Battery Metals (IBAT) launched a novel lithium filtration technology in to produce 5,000 metric tons annually within four weeks.
- Researchers at ETH Zurich presented an efficient method for separating and recovering the rare earth metal europium from complex mixtures.
- Collecting seafloor metals won’t wreck the ocean carbon cycle, according to the Breakthrough Institute.
Bearish News
- The Stainless Monthly Metals Index (MMI) dropped 10.88% from June to July as nickel prices declined over 14%.
- Thieves have been stripping copper wire out of thousands of streetlights, causing safety hazards and costing cities millions to repair.
- A Georgia precious metals dealer was sentenced to four years for tax fraud.
- Gold and silver prices have been caught in a downdraft of a broad commodity market sell-off.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Silver is going for gold.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- A rare prototype controller from the failed Nintendo and Sony collaboration is going up for auction in August.
- Fanatics and Sotheby’s announced a new collaboration to offer collectors access to the rarest trading cards valued at $100,000 and above.
- Toki, a marketplace for collectibles, secured $1.8 million in pre-seed funding and amassed over 100,000 registered users.
- Mondo is launching new Marvel SDCC exclusives, including a 1/6 scale X-Men ’97 Cyclops figure and a Colossus Juggernaut soft vinyl figure.
Bearish News
- Michael Jordan may have devalued collectibles worth millions at a recent secret signing event due to unique inscriptions and pen choice.
- A woman was arrested for stealing a backpack containing $50,000 worth of rare sports cards and sentimental jewelry in Beaverton, Oregon.
- Thousands of dollars worth of vintage Star Wars collectibles were stolen from a Phoenix business’s off-site storage facility on Monday.
- A dealer at the Dallas Card Show reported nearly $2 million worth of baseball cards stolen last Wednesday.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
For a backpack thief, this lady just hit the jackpot.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Sedo sold the domain x.game for a whopping $160,000 in a direct sale from XYZ Registry.
- The first quarter of 2024 closed with 362.4 million domain name registrations across all top-level domains (TLDs).
Bearish News
- Fraudsters created over 1,000 new malicious Amazon-related domains in June 2024 alone.
- Researchers found over 572,000 phantom domains that could direct users to malicious sites.
- A network of 708 fraudulent web domains has been discovered selling fake Olympics and event tickets at inflated prices.
- Many web3 companies reported their Squarespace-registered domains have been hijacked.
- Entri filed an antitrust lawsuit against GoDaddy, alleging unfair blocking of automated DNS changes for customers.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Phantom domains sound absolutely terrifying.
That’s all for this week
Cheers, Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC, ETH, and a couple Star Wars Action figures in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
