Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: US jobless claims fell to a 3-month low
- Real Estate: Mortgage rates rose for the third straight week
- Startups: The tech industry has seen over 130,000 job cuts
- Private Credit: PE firms held $2.9 trillion in unsold assets
- Crypto: N. America generated $1.3 trillion in on-chain value
- NFTs: NFT trading volumes plummeted 60% in Q3 2024
- Art: White Cube sold a Julie Mehretu painting for $9.5 million
- Vintage Autos: Sammy Hagar’s Ferrari sold for $4.675 million
- Coins: A 1796 Liberty Cap half cent fetching $39,600
- Farmland: Organic crop net returns fell to $42 per acre
- Luxury: Fendi Casa partnered with Naftali Group
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Scotch overtook Cognac in 2023
- Film & Music: Limp Bizkit sued Universal for $200 million
- Precious Metals: Ggold hit a record $2,716 per ounce
- Collectibles: A Tales of Suspense #39 sold for $2 million
- Websites: Kate Buckley released Defining.com
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Japan’s core inflation slowed to 2.4% in September, with the core index holding steady at 2.1%.
- The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the third time this year, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.25%.
- UBS raised its 2025 S&P 500 target to 6,400, implying 9.2% upside from current levels.
- US jobless claims fell to a 3-month low of 241,000, beating expectations.
- Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 1.6% in September, prompting markets to increase bets of a 50 basis point rate cut.
Bearish News
- The US national debt exceeded $35.7 trillion, with each American now burdened by over $105,000.
- About 37% of US credit cardholders have maxed out or nearly maxed out a credit card since March 2022.
- China’s economic growth in Q3 fell to 4.6%, its lowest level since lifting pandemic restrictions.
What are the odds?
We lost the art of writing checks.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.3 points to 91.5 in September.
- Goldman Sachs projected home prices to rise 4.5% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025.
- The global real estate market is expected to reach $4.7 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.3% from 2023.
- Dallas led the US in commercial property sales for the third consecutive year.
- The Midwest and Northeast regions of the US experienced strong home price growth.
Bearish News
- China’s real estate sector, once 25% of GDP, continued to drag down economic growth after years of market collapse.
- Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, despite the Fed’s recent 50 basis point rate cut.
- Florida’s housing market faced a major setback as high insurance costs and storm concerns drove buyers away.
- Massachusetts experienced significant out-migration due to high costs of living, particularly affecting those aged 26 to 45.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Let’s get a shuttle from Massachusetts straight to Dallas.
Startups
Bullish News
- AI startups have raised more than $650 billion in VC over the last decade.
- Swedish VC firm Node.vc closed a €71 million fund to invest in startups across the Nordics and Baltics.
- UK-based end-of-life services startup Farewill was acquired for $16.8 million by funeral service provider Dignity.
- AI and cloud funding in the US, Europe, and Israel is projected to reach $79.2 billion in 2024, a 27% increase from 2023.
- Generative AI startups received 40% of all VC investment in cloud companies, with OpenAI raising $18.9 billion in 2023-24.
Bearish News
- The graduation rate of UK startups from Seed to Series A within 24 months fell from 12.5% in 2020 to 4.5% in 2024.
- Global venture funding totaled $66.5 billion in Q3 2024, down 16% quarter over quarter and 15% year over year.
- Meta conducted another round of layoffs across multiple teams, including Reality Labs, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
- The tech industry has seen over 130,000 job cuts across 457 companies in 2024.
How to invest in startups right now:
It’s not a great time to be in tech.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- PC assets are projected to reach $2.64 trillion by 2029, up from $1.5 trillion in 2023.
- The total private debt assets under management reached $1.62 trillion by the end of 2023, up 17% from 2022.
- Federated Hermes Private Equity maintained its 20% allocation to Asia.
- Strategic acquirers and financial acquirers accounted for 85% and 15% respectively of total RIA deals in Q3 2024.
Bearish News
- PE firms held $2.9 trillion in unsold assets, with 53% of companies in buyout portfolios sitting for four years or longer.
- Technology sector PE deal activity remained well below 2021 levels, with only 1,044 deals valued at $133.8 billion in the first nine months of the year.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Tech is getting hit from every angle.
Crypto
Bullish News
- North America generated $1.3 trillion in on-chain value, representing 22.5% of the global crypto market from July 2023 to June 2024.
- Crypto adoption reached record levels, with 220 million active addresses interacting with blockchains in September 2024.
- BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF saw 75% of its buyers new to Wall Street.
- The EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulation provided access to 18% of global crypto transaction volumes.
- An AI-powered chatbot called Truth Terminal became a crypto millionaire after its holdings in memecoins surged in value.
Bearish News
- Crypto ETF adoption has been slower than expected, with big institutional investors still wary of allocating funds.
- The FBI arrested Eric Council Jr. for hacking the SEC’s X account to post a fake Bitcoin ETF approval message.
- A fake Rabby Wallet scam on the Apple App Store led to an estimated $1.6 million in losses for unsuspecting users.
- A former Philippine mayor was implicated in a $30 million crypto fraud and money laundering scheme.
- The SEC appealed specific elements of the Ripple ruling, focusing on programmatic sales and executive actions.
- Cosmos developers raced to dismantle a staking module linked to North Korean actors, raising security concerns.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Who fell from the Rabby Wallet…
NFTs
Bullish News
- Daily NFT sales jumped 30% as Ethereum and Bitcoin NFTs exploded in sales volume.
- NFTs in sports are revolutionizing fan engagement, with NBA Top Shot enabling millions of fans to own highlight videos.
- FreeDum Fighters ($DUM) launched its presale, raising over $100,000 from early movers in the growing PolitiFi sector.
- World Liberty Financial, endorsed by Donald Trump, prepared to initiate a $300 million sale of its WLFI governance token.
Bearish News
- NFT market declined by 8.78%, with overall sales dropping to $77.46 million.
- Dogecoin struggled to break $0.16, falling 46% over the past six months.
- NFT trading volumes plummeted 60% in Q3 2024, with total sales falling to 11.5 million.
- CoinGecko reported NFT sales volumes declining throughout 2024, with a 95% drop from the January 2022 peak.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Who is picking up their FreeDum Fighters?
Artwork
Bullish News
- White Cube sold a Julie Mehretu painting for $9.5 million at Art Basel Paris.
- Sotheby’s unveiled its expanded Paris headquarters, gaining 30% more square footage and street-view visibility for its salesroom.
- The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s “Siena” exhibition reunited eight panels from Duccio’s Maestà altarpiece for the first time in 250 years.
- Christie’s announced the sale of Magritte’s L’empire des lumières (1954), estimated at over $95 million, breaking a previous record.
Bearish News
- Sotheby’s evening sale of 20th- and 21st-century art in London brought in £37.6 million, a drop from last year’s sale.
- Online-only fine art sales at major auction houses fell 16.9% to $190 million in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I wonder if the pieces of the altarpiece were happy to be back together again.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- RM Sotheby’s London sale featured a 1957 Jaguar XKSS with a $14.4 million estimate.
- Barrett-Jackson’s Scottsdale auction hit $56.6 million in sales, with Sammy Hagar’s Ferrari LaFerrari fetching $4.675 million.
- A $40 million private car collection showcased rare Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Porsche supercars.
- A Minnesota seller offered 60+ classic cars, including a ’36 Ford Front Clip and ’69 Mach 1 Mustang.
- Hagerty Marketplace sold a 1992 Ford Mustang LX convertible near its #3 (Good) value.
Bearish News
- Four men were charged for stealing 120 luxury cars worth $5 million from dealerships across states.
- A New Orleans man pled guilty to buying $127,000 in luxury cars using stolen identities.
- Young drivers interested in classic cars face tax hikes and high repair costs, with only pre-1984 vehicles tax-exempt.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
How are these people stealing luxury cars? I can’t get into my own car without setting off the alarm, and I have the keys.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Stack’s Bowers August auction featured Tom Hyland’s collection, with a 1796 Liberty Cap half cent fetching $39,600.
- Heritage’s World & Ancient Coins Auction will showcase the Coenen Collection, including a rare 1672 gold Proof Pattern Ducaton.
- A collection of 35 gold stater coins found in Kent sold for £128,340 at Noonans Mayfair.
- Stack’s Bowers November 2024 Rarities Night will feature top-tier gold coins, including the finest PCGS-graded 1870-CC double eagle (AU-55).
Bearish News
- The rare coin market saw prices drop up to 5% after pandemic-driven inflation cooled.
- The discovery of coin hoards, like a recent Civil War-era find, could potentially lower values by boosting supply.
- The US Mint ended its mutilated coin redemption program due to high costs and time constraints.
- Cleaning rare coins can reduce their value by 50% or more, according to experts.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Did a dirty coin write that^
Farmland
Bullish News
- Climate-smart practices reduced emissions and increased production, with 20% of US farmland in conservation.
- USDA’s initiative transformed 3.2 million acres into climate-smart operations across 14,000 farms.
- Farmland Partners sold 41,554 acres at a 61% premium to USDA values, showcasing the high value of quality land.
- A proposed bill seeks $200 million for rural housing development on farmland to address shortages.
- Farmers lowered carbon intensity with no-till and cover crops, potentially earning up to $1.57 per bushel in premiums.
- International agrifood experts are set to meet for a two-day summit to discuss the future of sustainable farming.
Bearish News
- Organic crop net returns fell to $42 per acre, a record low.
- Pure Prairie Poultry’s sudden closure left Midwest farmers unable to feed or process birds.
- Corn Belt land prices declined, with 14 no-sales at Iowa auctions in September.
- Texas farmland hit $2,800 per acre, pricing out young farmers who must lease at higher rates.
- Uncertainty over UK tax changes created unease in the farmland market.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Who’s hitting the international agrifood summit? I wonder whats for lunch.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Gagosian launched the Howard Hodgkin Home line, offering items from £65 cushions to six-figure paintings.
- P180 invested in Altuzarra to boost profitability through Ecommerce and rentals.
- The global hard luxury goods market is projected to reach $294.2 billion by 2032, growing at 9.57% annually.
- Fendi Casa partnered with Naftali Group to design luxury Miami penthouses starting at $8 million.
- Hong Kong’s luxury goods market revenue is expected to grow steadily from 2024 to 2029.
Bearish News
- LVMH reported a 3% revenue drop to €19.1 billion in Q3, with Fashion and Leather Goods down 5%.
- Luxury brands saw weakening demand in China, with LVMH facing a 16% pullback in Asia excluding Japan.
- High-quality luxury dupes gained traction, with one-third of US adults intentionally buying replicas.
- Kim Jones stepped down as Fendi’s artistic director after four years but remains at Dior Men’s.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
This is the collab I was waiting for.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Status spirits sales grew 9%, with Scotch whisky overtaking Cognac in 2023.
- Preservation Distillery’s Pure Antique 20 YO Bourbon won Best Overall Bourbon at the 2024 San Francisco World Spirits Competition.
- Diageo announced plans to expand its Bali production site to serve the Asia Pacific better.
- Jameson launched Triple Triple Chestnut Edition, featuring whiskey matured in chestnut casks.
- British luxury retailer Waitrose reported an 86% rise in tequila sales, with customers favoring it as a sipping drink.
Bearish News
- Pernod Ricard’s sales dropped 5.9% in Q1, with a 25% fall in China.
- Wine and spirits sales fell 6% through August 2024, with wine down 8%.
- The US spirits industry may face tariffs on American whiskey if EU-US trade disputes persist.
- Premium spirits sales over $100 declined 12.5% in bars and restaurants.
- The spirits industry struggled with economic uncertainty and consumer spending pressure.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
I didn’t think Scotch had it in him… congrats!
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Capitol Records named Justin Grant SVP of Urban Digital, leading digital marketing for R&B and hip-hop.
- Universal Music fully acquired European indie giant [PIAS].
- Concord bought key parts of Daddy Yankee’s catalog for $217.3 million, including “Gasolina” and “Despacito.”
- Litmus Music acquired Randy Newman’s recorded music and publishing rights, including Disney scores.
- Instagram launched a feature to save discovered songs directly to Spotify playlists.
- TikTok expanded its #ElectronicMusic hub worldwide.
Bearish News
- Indie groups called for a probe into Universal’s [PIAS] acquisition.
- Limp Bizkit sued Universal for $200 million over hidden royalties.
- Australia’s live music saw 1,300 closures before Live Nation’s role.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
I haven’t thought about Limp Bizkit for 20 years.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Silver surged 5%, while gold hit a record $2,716 per ounce.
- China announced plans to launch platinum and palladium futures in Q1 2025, boosting its platinum jewelry market.
- The global diamond market was projected to reach $138 billion by 2031, with 4.5% annual growth.
- Vision Blue Resources provided a £7 million credit facility to reopen the South Crofty tin mine.
- Critical Metals Corp. extended its exploitation license for Greenland’s Tanbreez rare earth project.
- The silicon metal market is expected to grow by $2.24 billion by 2028 due to rising demand for aluminum-silicon alloys.
Bearish News
- Generic diamond marketing efforts have faltered since De Beers stopped its $200 million annual funding.
- Military silver demand may be much higher than reported, tightening supply and raising prices.
- Silvercorp Metals’ gold sales dropped to 1,231 ounces in Q2 2025.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Even the military wants to look glamorous.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Elvis Presley fan-club collectibles could sell for $10,000 to $20,000 at Morphy Auctions.
- GameStop partnered with Collectors to offer PSA card grading at select locations.
- The Asheville Tourists launched an online auction of signed memorabilia to support hurricane relief.
- A Tales of Suspense #39 CGC 9.8, featuring Iron Man’s debut, sold for $2 million.
- A Wilt Chamberlain PSA 10 rookie card sold for $1.7 million, one of only four Gem Mint copies.
- Heritage Auction’s Game of Thrones sale hit $21.1 million, the second-largest entertainment auction ever.
Bearish News
- A San Antonio collector sued a memorabilia company for $200,000 over unpaid consigned items.
- An Indiana fraudster admitted to defrauding victims of over $581,000 for undelivered rare goods.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Hate an Indiana fraudster.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Kate Buckley and Todd Henderson launched Defining.com, a premium domain and branding agency.
- Afternic’s “Lead Center” gives domain owners more details on buyers and negotiations.
- Identity Digital secured .ai domain management, boosting global reach and efficiency.
- ICA and WIPO began a joint review of UDRP to enhance dispute resolution.
- The .ART registry honored ArtCentrica with the 2024 Digital Innovation in Art Award for its educational platform.
Bearish News
- Bodis parking service didn’t notify owners of blacklisted domains, causing lost revenue.
- Scoop Soldiers were sued federally after two UDRP losses, including a reverse domain hijacking ruling.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Welcome Identity Digital to the trendiest domain on the market.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Robinhood.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
