Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
It was a banging week for Altea members. Check out the update below.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Goldman has turned bullish on the S&P
- Real Estate: Ohio homes for sale jumped 73%
- Startups: Sword Health raised $130 million
- Private Credit: The NFL allows PE firms to invest in teams
- Crypto: Coinbase announced support for pre-launch markets
- NFTs: Bitcoin-based NFTs surpassed the Ronin blockchain
- Art: Sotheby’s credit rating was downgraded from B to B-
- Vintage Autos: DR Automobiles was fined $6.4 million
- Coins: A 1976-S Bicentennial Silver Quarter sold for $19,200
- Farmland: EU’s organic farming area grew 17 million hectares
- Luxury: Burberry shares outperformed the market last week
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: A Jack Daniels barrel was stolen
- Film & Music: Queen sold their rights to Sony Music
- Precious Metals: WTMA merged with Evolution Metals
- Collectibles: Valuable Lego’s are being stolen in LA
- Websites: Squarespace sold Tock to American Express
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Wall Street is turning more bullish as inflation cools, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600.
- The US dollar is going for its third consecutive weekly rise, holding onto its 100-week moving average.
- Colorado’s inflation rate fell to 2.6% in May and is expected to outperform the nation’s economy.
- Niger’s real GDP is estimated to grow by 10.4% in 2024, the highest among African countries.
- Banco Macro S.A. reported $5.02 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.19 by $2.83.
- Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the Fed would cut its benchmark interest rate once this year if his economic forecast plays out.
Bearish News
- China’s May industrial output lagged expectations, with property investment falling 10.1% year-over-year in January-May.
- The Office of the Attorney General filed a lawsuit against five companies for misclassifying over 370 employees as independent contractors.
- Nigeria’s annual inflation rose to a new 28-year high of 33.95% in May.
- The latest Focus Report confirms Brazil’s monetary easing is over, with markets expecting the Selic rate to close the year at 10.5%.
- The financial industry has been retreating from climate goals despite rising estimates of the social cost of carbon.
- US retail sales rose a meager 0.1% in May as high prices and interest rates curbed spending.
- Seriously overdue credit card debt rose to 10.7% in Q1 2024, the highest in over a decade.
- The pace of inflation in Russia accelerated to 8.3% in May, the highest since February 2023.
What are the odds?
Kashi is forecasting one or two rate cuts in the back half of 2024, but I’ll be very surprised if it’s two or more.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
Altea Highlights
This is the last week to apply to Altea at $1,500 annually. Next week, the price goes up to $2,500.
Last week, I asked for EOIs for the deals below. Lots of feedback and interest in cash-flowing agave farmland and tequila barrels but less for a traditional wine opportunity.
- 🍷 A wine or champagne SPV targeting 12% to 15% returns – I’m interested in this.
- 🌿 Cash-flowing agave farmland targeting 16% to 27% returns – I’m interested in this.
- 🍹 Cash-flowing tequila SPV with annual distributions targeting 30%+ returns – I’m interested in this.
We’re currently working to secure opportunities in both film and litigation finance. Read up on our deep dives into:
If the above sounds interesting, click the “I’m interested in this” button below.
- We’re speaking with two different sponsors in the film finance space, specifically looking at horror films, which bring the highest ROI of any genre. I’m interested in this.
- We’re still early in identifying opportunities, but it’s the most-requested asset class. We should have something good teed up within a few weeks. I’m interested in this.
Investor Field Trips
We’ve locked in Nashville 🎸 for a music-themed investing adventure to Music City, USA.
Get your boots spit-shined and your guitar tuned.
Est. dates: October 21 – 25
We’ll discount the first few members who make a deposit. Let me know if you’d like to join.
Check out the full roundup.
ALTS 1 Fund news
The investor portal should be ready this week.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- The median existing-home sales price jumped 5.8% from May 2023 to $419,300.
- Q2 2024 industrial investment sales volume in Greater Boston already exceeds Q1 totals, on pace to set a 2-year quarterly record.
- Trinity Investments and Credit Suisse Asset Management secured a $575 million CMBS refinance for The Diplomat Beach Resort.
- Central Ohio homes for sale jumped 73% from 2023, reaching the highest inventory level in at least seven years.
- The Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors reported that housing inventory hit 3.2 months in May, the first time in over a decade.
- Oakley founder James Jannard sold his Malibu mansion for $210 million, setting a record for the most expensive home ever sold in California.
Bearish News
- California’s housing market faced significant challenges in May 2024 due to the highest mortgage rates since late 2023.
- A New Jersey man pleaded guilty to orchestrating a $54.7 million mortgage fraud conspiracy over six years by deceiving lenders.
- Scammers based in Nigeria nearly auctioned off Graceland, Elvis Presley’s iconic Memphis home.
- In South Dakota, total property tax payments increased nearly 60% for homes, 47% for commercial property, and 28% for agricultural property in the last decade.
- In May 2024, 55% of homes for sale in the San Francisco-San Mateo county region were listed for a month or more without finding a buyer.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Elvis has nearly left the building
Startups
Bullish News
- Maryland received a $1.01 million grant to accelerate the adoption of smart manufacturing technology in small and mid-sized businesses.
- You.com’s parent company SuSea is raising $50 million at a $700-900 million valuation after hitting 1 billion queries.
- Sword Health raised $130 million, boosting its valuation 50% to $3 billion from its 2021 series D.
- Social trading app AfterHour raised a $4.5 million seed round led by Founders Fund and General Catalyst.
- Rent-payment startup Circa was acquired for $9.5 million by Stake, two years after raising $2 million.
- VC-backed chip startups have raised nearly $5.3 billion in just 175 deals this year.
- Nvidia reportedly agreed to acquire incident automation startup Shoreline for around $100 million.
Bearish News
- Researchers suggest that banning startup acquisitions may depress innovation.
- Ginkgo Bioworks announced plans to cut labor costs by up to 25% last month, and notified the state of 158 layoffs, with more to come.
- The Los Angeles Unified School District confirmed that at least one of its Snowflake vendors had its data stolen in a recent cyberattack.
- Peloton is starting to lose its star instructors, with three of its most popular instructors leaving the company.
How to invest in startups right now:
Where are those instructors pedaling off to?
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Blackstone launched a $1.74 billion bid to privatize Infocom, Japan’s largest PE deal this year.
- PE and venture capital transactions in the global renewable energy sector nearly reached $15 billion in 2023, a 5-year high.
- The NFL is set to allow PE firms to invest in teams, as PE firms sit on a $1.2 trillion war chest.
- Millennials and Gen Z allocate three times more of their portfolios to alternative investments than older generations.
- Carlyle’s CEO praised the previous Japan fund’s “extraordinary” performance as they launched a new 400 billion yen fund.
- The Neuberger Berman Private Markets Access Fund surpassed $1 billion in assets.
- Top 100 logistics company RPM Freight Systems received backing from private equity firms Trive Capital and Bluejay Capital Partners.
Bearish News
- Bain & Company’s PE Midyear Report revealed PE fundraising may stagnate at $1.1 trillion in 2024, 15% less than in 2023.
- PE’s exit drought led to a record $33.4 billion in debt dividends through mid-June as firms didn’t sell their portfolios.
- A lawyer’s dream to disrupt the legal industry with PE became a nightmare due to funding disputes with 777 Partners.
- US retirement funds are declining due to PE risks, pensioners cautioned about shifting savings to the unstable and opaque asset class.
- Ares Management and Monument Realty’s DC office tower is on the brink of foreclosure as the lender filed an affidavit.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Welcome PE to the field.
Crypto
Bullish News
- Coinbase announced support for pre-launch markets on its International Exchange and Advanced platforms.
- Binance partnered with Cristiano Ronaldo on a series of NFT drops, with digital collectibles starting at $35.
- The billionaire Winklevoss twins, founders of Gemini, each donated $1 million in bitcoin to support Donald Trump.
- MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, acquired another 11,931 BTC for $786 million.
- The total market cap of 14 US-listed bitcoin miners followed by JPMorgan hit a record high of $22.8 billion on June 15.
- Crypto trading firm Cumberland DRW acquired a New York BitLicense, becoming one of the only principal trading firms to do so.
- LandBridge launched an IPO, with land in the Permian Basin supporting crypto mining operations and the “non-oil and gas” royalty segment.
Bearish News
- Kraken revealed a security researcher exploited a zero-day flaw to steal $3 million and refused to return the funds.
- The CFTC is probing Jump Trading’s involvement in crypto, though it’s unclear if charges are being considered.
- A California judge ruled that a civil securities lawsuit against Ripple will proceed to trial.
- Bitcoin dipped under $65,000 for the first time since May during global economy concerns and lower summer liquidity.
- Robinhood faces scrutiny over its heavy reliance on Dogecoin for 62% of its crypto transaction volume.
- FTX victims filed to recover $8 billion in forfeited assets, arguing they belong to customers.
- Bonk coin (BONK) on the Solana network faces a 36% drop since peaking at $0.000041 on May 28.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
With a name like Bonk, I can’t say expectations were high.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Bitcoin-based NFTs surpassed the Ronin blockchain with $148 million in sales over the past 30 days, reaching $4 billion in total sales volume.
- Konami Digital Entertainment announced the launch of Resella, supporting yen transactions without requiring web3 wallets.
- Cryptorefills launched “The 7 Deadly Sins“, an NFT gift card collection with spendable balances up to $500.
- Polygon’s (MATIC) Moon Girl collection leads CryptoSlam’s NFT sales chart at $1.36 million in daily sales.
- Paris Match announced an auction of 75 archival photos as Ethereum NFTs, with starting bids at 0.3 ETH to commemorate its 75th anniversary.
Bearish News
- Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs crashed to a 150-week low with a 41% decline in trading volume and a 27% drop in sales.
- Famous NFT artist Beeple ridiculed celebrity meme coins in his latest satirical artwork, referencing the 2021 NFT hype.
- Over $4.3 million in stolen crypto from the Remilia DAO hack was traced to Tornado Cash, with some speculating Remilia orchestrated the attack themselves.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Remilia should be on tornado watch.
Artwork
Bullish News
- A University of Oregon team developed an AI tool that can verify Jackson Pollock paintings with 98.9% accuracy.
- 56% of art collectors considered art assets as part of their wealth management strategy alongside 98% of younger collectors.
- The Figge Art Museum received a transformative gift valued at around $14 million.
- The San Francisco Museum of Modern Art acquired Yayoi Kusama’s “Infinity Mirror Rooms” after a recent exhibition that was seen by 170,000 people.
- The Whitney Western Art Museum in Cody acquired its first artwork by Andy Warhol, a portrait of General George Armstrong Custer.
- At Art Basel 2024, Hauser and Wirth sold an Arshile Gorky for $16 million, and David Zwirner sold a Joan Mitchell for $20 million.
Bearish News
- S&P Global Ratings downgraded Sotheby’s credit rating from B to B- due to a 22% drop in revenue and rising debt.
- The Kunsthaus Zurich removed five paintings from an exhibition over concerns they were looted by the Nazis.
- A man received a two-year suspended prison sentence and was ordered to pay €30,000 for trying to steal a Banksy artwork in Paris.
- Stolen Taco Bell wall art commissioned 20 years ago is fetching up to $10,000 on the black market.
- A federal judge in New York dismissed a restitution claim against the Guggenheim over Picasso’s “La repasseuse,” sold under alleged Nazi duress in 1938.
- A Florida artist’s custom glasswork worth over $40,000 is still missing after he recovered his stolen trailer in Columbus, Ohio.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I wasted all my time stealing their hot sauce; I never considered what they had hanging on the walls.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- The global luxury car market is set to reach $1.03 trillion by 2031, growing at 6.6% CAGR.
- BMW Group Classic is set to offer restoration services in Australia, expanding to 48 showrooms.
- An abandoned car dealership in New Hampshire with over 300 vintage cars, including American classics, is on the market for £320,000.
- 94% of Gen Z and millennial investors are reportedly collecting luxury items and classic cars.
Bearish News
- A thief stole a 1951 Oldsmobile Rocket 98 worth $25,000 from Frank Corrente’s garage.
- Cyberattacks on CDK Global disrupted operations at over 15,000 North American car dealerships.
- A 1972 Z28 Chevrolet Camaro worth $50,000 was stolen from a Sylvania man’s garage.
- DR Automobiles was fined $6.4 million for branding China-made vehicles as Italian.
- A garage full of classic cars was destroyed in the 1,200-acre Point Fire in Sonoma County.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Might be time to start locking the garage.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- A 1976-S Bicentennial Silver Quarter sold for $19,200 at auction.
- The finest known 1794 Flowing Hair Dollar, insured for $15 million, is set to be displayed at ANA 2024 this August.
- The global coin collection market is valued at $9.72 billion, and projected to reach $19.56 billion by 2030.
- Last week, archaeologists discovered 94 bronze and silver coins in ancient Lod, Israel.
- US Mint sold 89,273 Uncirculated 2024-W American Eagle silver dollars in its first three days of release.
Bearish News
- £6,000 worth of rare coins was stolen from a collector’s home in Scarborough last week.
- An Arlington coin sale turned violent, resulting in a shooting and Edgar Ipina’s arrest.
- A rare coin seller shot an alleged thief during a meetup near Parks Mall in Arlington last Monday.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I was just wondering where I left my 94 bronze and silver coins.
Farmland
Bullish News
- The Genesee Valley Conservancy received $12.8 million to protect 5,000 acres of farmland in three counties.
- EU’s organic farming area increased to 16.9 million hectares in 2022, covering 10.5% of agricultural land.
- Farmland values were steady in 2023, driven by high demand and reduced supply, with southeast prices soaring 8%.
- Shapiro Administration invested $9.8 million to protect 2,629 acres on 28 farms in Pennsylvania.
- Historic Deerfield and Antonellis family conserved 200 acres for agriculture in the North Meadows area.
- Impossible Sensing developed a prototype for real-time soil analysis to aid precision agriculture.
- Microsoft purchased 40,000 tons of carbon credits from Indigo Ag for regenerative agriculture practices.
Bearish News
- USDA will eliminate the July Cattle report and County Estimates due to budget shortfalls.
- Chinese-owned farmland near 19 US military bases raises national security concerns over espionage.
- Hundreds protested on Tuesday over the transforming of 861 acres of farmland near Sugar Grove into warehouses and housing.
- Georgia’s spread of solar farms faces legislative scrutiny after losing 2.5 million acres of farmland.
- CBO’s $12 billion estimate for USDA’s CCC spending is far below the $50 billion needed for farm bill proposals.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Then how are we to know how many cattle we have in July?
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Richemont outperformed LVMH and Kering, focusing on hard luxury due to economic challenges.
- Burberry shares rose 0.57% to £9.86, outperforming the market.
- LVMH acquired the Parisian restaurant “Chez L’Ami Louis,” diversifying into lifestyle and hospitality.
- Luxury investment portfolio services market projected to grow at 10.4% CAGR from 2024 to 2032.
- Christie’s New York Luxury Week earned $70.3 million.
Bearish News
- Bain forecasts the slowest luxury goods sales growth since 2020 for 2024.
- Personal luxury goods market declined 1-3% year-over-year in Q1 2024.
- China’s richest favor discreet fashion, as high-end goods sales see weakest growth since 2020.
- Guangzhou authorities seized 7,600 fake luxury goods in a counterfeiting crackdown on June 16th.
- LA man was charged last week in a $50 million scheme to launder cartel money via luxury goods.
- Salvatore Ferragamo’s stock fell below its 200-day moving average, trading as low as $4.67.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Laundering with luxury goods is a tough gig. Try a car wash next time.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- A 5.5L bottle of 1972 Domaine de la Romanée-Conti La Tâche sold for $150,000 at Bonhams.
- The Spirits Club launched a UK bottle spirit investment opportunity with potential 25% annual returns. [Ed: I researched it a bit and all three addresses they list are virtual offices.]
- Rare Bordeaux and Burgundy wines from the Avery family’s collection helped Christie’s London auction reach almost £2.57 million in total sales.
- Ukrainian vodka production is expected to exceed 2021 figures despite ongoing war with Russia.
- Sotheby’s auctioning Pierre Chen’s wine collection, expected to fetch $50 million.
- New York is set to allow distillers and cider makers to ship products directly to residents.
- Former Yukos shareholders auctioned 18 Russian vodka brands, including Stolichnaya, for €1.6 million.
Bearish News
- Vietnam proposed raising alcohol taxes to 100% by 2030.
- The spirits industry saw 3.5% sales decline in 2023.
- With vintage spirits dwindling, collectors have turned to discontinued bottlings like Patron XO Café and Tequila Cabeza.
- A man is accused of stealing a Jack Daniel’s barrel from Bridgestone Arena.
- Italy’s 2023 farm production shrank last year as wine, fruit, and olive oil output all took a hit from extreme weather events, with wine production falling 17%.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
The more interesting story is how he stole a Jack Daniel’s barrel.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Queen sold their rights to Sony Music for $1.27 billion, the largest music rights sale ever.
- Sony Music India announced a partnership with Maddock Films to produce film soundtracks and indie pop singles.
- TikTok has announced plans to form a Music Content Investment Team for global partnership opportunities.
- SoundLabs and Universal Music Group announced an agreement offering AI technology and vocal modeling plug-in MicDrop.
- Lionsgate and MCT signed a multi-year co-financing agreement last week.
Bearish News
- Hackers stole terabytes of data from Ticketmaster and Snowflake via EPAM, affecting 165 accounts.
- Columbia Pictures settled its lawsuit with “Bad Boys” writers, citing a decades-old copyright agreement.
- Prince Charles Cinema canceled the premiere of AI-written film “The Last Screenwriter” due to customer concerns.
- Shari Redstone ended Paramount’s merger talks with Skydance Media due to shrinking profits and $14 billion debt.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
AI-written films, even when about being AI-written, are still AI-written.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Utah passed HB 348, allowing the state to invest up to 10% of its $1.4 billion funds in precious metals.
- The global precious metals market projected to reach $307.94 billion by 2032.
- Gold prices rose 1%, reaching $2,358.79 per ounce on US economic data.
- UK tech company developed a rare-earth-free magnet, cutting costs by 20% and emissions by 70%.
- Saudi Arabia announced plans to boost base metals production.
- The refractory metals market is forecasted to hit $32.8 billion by 2033.
- Austrian researchers developed a bacterial process to recover rare earth metals from e-scrap.
- WTMA merged with Evolution Metals to secure a global supply chain for critical minerals.
Bearish News
- Commercial Metals’ stock declined 9% despite strong financials; analysts expect future earnings to shrink.
- Lynas Rare Earths stated that demand growth for responsibly produced rare earths has not been matched by price growth, with China’s supply weighing on prices.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Rings made from e-scrap, how romantic.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Fanatics secured exclusive official merchandise licensing with NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, and college sports.
- Adults 18+ accounted for more toy sales than any other age group in early 2024.
- Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama surpassed Michael Jordan in eBay searches.
- The 2024 Bank of America Private Bank Study of Wealthy Americans found Gen Z allocates three times more of their investment portfolios to alternative investments than older generations.
- Fanatics appointed Mike Mahan as CEO to grow global collector numbers.
Bearish News
- Resale platform StockX said its verification experts have encountered 40,000 “suspected” fake sneakers on its platform.
- A string of Lego heists targeting valuable minifigures has hit the greater Los Angeles area, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in losses.
- New evidence suggests Albert Camus faked a 104-page ‘draft’ sold by Tajan in 1944, backdating it to 1940 to capitalize on the popularity of L’Étranger.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Minifigures for multifigures.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Mike Mann defended ProIBS.com in a UDRP dispute, affirming domain investing is legitimate.
- Retail sales increased year-over-year and month-over-month in May, with online sales up 17.91%.
- Right of the Dot’s auction ended Tuesday, June 18, with actors.comhitting its reserve at $138,222.
- Squarespace sold Tock to American Express for $400 million, partnering for small business value.
- Thrasio emerged from Chapter 11 and appointed Stephanie Fox as CEO, focusing on profitability.
Bearish News
- An 82-year-old man took his life after losing his life savings to a “pig butchering” scam.
- Booking.com saw a 500-900% rise in travel scams over 18 months, driven by AI.
- Perplexity AI is under scrutiny for web scraping, bypassing the Robots Exclusion Protocol to access restricted content.
- Two men were charged for running Empire Market, enabling $430 million in illegal transactions.
- US regulators sued Adobe for hiding subscription cancellation fees for Photoshop and other software.
- Wix.com‘s stock dropped 1.39%, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 0.77% daily gain.
- Hackers used compromised websites to deliver the BadSpace backdoor via fake browser updates.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
PerplexityAI bypassed Robots Exclusion Protocol… time to hit the bunker.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC, ETH, and a couple Star Wars Action figures in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.