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Today I’ve done a deep dive into the Pokemon Red – Game Boy – 9.2 A++ that will IPO on Rally Road Wednesday, May 5th, 2021 at 12 PM EST.
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What is Pokemon Red – Game Boy – 9.2 A++?
This is a sealed copy of the Pokemon Red Game Boy game, originally released in 1998, graded 9.2 A++ by WATA. This is a mid-production copy, of which 7 are graded higher thus far. Crucially, there are three different variants of Pokemon Red, and as always, the earliest production is the most valuable:
Early – Pixelated, white E in rating, Sandshrew battle on back
Mid – Pixelated, white E in rating, Rattata battle on back
Late – Solid, black E in rating, Rattata battle on back
As a reminder – go read about the WATA scale if you haven’t yet. The grade is the main driver of a video game’s value and understanding its meaning is crucial. The first number represents the condition of the item (in this case, the unopened box) on a 10-point scale, with increments of .5 until 9, and then increments of .2 until 10.
The second part of the grade is the seal grade – the condition of the factory seal. This scale goes from C to A++.
Pokemon Red – Game Boy – 9.2 A++ IPOs at Rally Road on May 5th at 12 PM EST for $40,000.
Add IPO to calendar
Pokemon Red, along with Blue, were the first Pokemon games released in the U.S. I wrote about a later release, Pokemon Yellow, last month here. The Game Boy games were an integral part in launching what is now a massive, global behemoth. When you combine Red’s sales with Blue’s, which was released at the same time, the first Pokemon release ranks among the top-selling Game Boy games of all-time. Pokemon Red is slightly more desirable than Blue due to the presence of Charizard on the cover. I’ve written about Charizard a couple of times for the Game Trading Cards newsletter – most notably when the 1st Edition Charizard IPO’d at Rally in March. Charizard is an extremely popular character whose cards are considerably more valuable than others and that translates to Pokemon Red as well.
Inferred Value – $20K+
[Detailed Valuation available to Insiders Only]
Asset Growth TTM
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
The video game market overall has been hot, but I expect a pullback for everything other than the blue-chip assets. Pokemon Red isn’t in the very top tier but it is a very well-known brand and game and it should remain desirable. There is an early production graded 8.0 A+ coming up for auction at Heritage this month, and if it hammers for under $15K or so, it will represent a decline for the early production, which almost certainly would represent a decline for the mid-production.
The Video Game Cartridges category had a 59% ROI in Q1 2021.
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade quarterly.
The main issue here is that it’s not a high grade (we already know there’s a 9.8 A++ out there) or an early production. Only the truly exceptional offerings have the ability to continue to appreciate rapidly, and this isn’t an exceptional offering.