Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Independence Day cookouts hit record high of $71.22
- Real Estate: Red Rock Island is on the market for $25 million
- Startups: Rapid7 acquired management startup Noetic Cyber
- Private Credit: ESG funds raised $55 billion in 2024
- Crypto: Jack Dorsey predicted Bitcoin will replace the dollar
- NFTs: Yamakoshi’s NFT initiative has raised $423,000
- Art: The world’s oldest artwork was discovered in Sulawesi
- Vintage Autos: A 1970 Lamborghini may fetch $2.5 million
- Coins: 800 Civil War-era gold coins were found in Kentucky
- Farmland: Nebraska land value rose for the fifth year in a row
- Luxury: Jewelry hit a record $1.6 trillion last year
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Napa Wine Train has gone green
- Film & Music: Stockholm emerged as a hub for music tech
- Precious Metals: China said rare earth metals are the states
- Collectibles: Adults 18 and up now lead toy purchases
- Websites: Crazy Domains added AI to its website builder
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Global inflation dropped from 8.8% in 2022 to 3.5% in 2023, with growth in major economies exceeding expectations.
- The EU and Egypt signed an MoU to disburse up to $1 billion in macro-financial assistance.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that inflation in the US is slowing again.
- Growth in India’s dominant services industry accelerated in June, buoyed by strong demand and a record rise in exports.
- Japan’s economy, previously marked by deflation and stagnation, has seen inflation rise above 2% since April 2022.
- Equity models outperformed momentum models in rates and FX.
Bearish News
- The cost of an Independence Day cookout hit a record high of $71.22 for 10 guests.
- The June US jobs report shows a nonfarm payroll growth slowing to 1.4% annualized and unemployment rising to 4.1%.
- Brazil’s real performed the worst among EM currencies, down 7% last month.
- US manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in June as demand remained subdued.
- US interest costs on the national debt will soon reach an all-time high, projected to total $12.9 trillion over the next decade.
- California’s gas tax increased to 60 cents per gallon on July 1, 2024, making it the highest in the nation.
- Deepfakes will soon be undetectable to the average person, leaving them more susceptible to deepfake scams.
- Inflation in Russia has gone far above the 4% target rate, despite rapid GDP growth and low unemployment.
What are the odds?
Those jobs numbers are eye-melting.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
ALTS 1 Fund news
We begin taking new investments this week, and the Q2 report should be out soon.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- The National Association of Realtors’ broker commission changes will take effect on August 17.
- Red Rock Island hit the real estate market for $25 million.
- Phoenix, Arizona saw May, June, July, and August as four of the six busiest months for closings.
- New York’s proposed Fairness in Apartment Rental Expenses act aims to shift broker fees from renters to landlords.
- New Florida condo laws enforce stricter board governance, mandate safety inspections, and increase transparency to prevent another Surfside-like collapse
- A joint venture purchased 21 Pearl, a 135-unit, nearly 100% occupied student housing property near UT Austin.
Bearish News
- A growing number of rental properties in the South and Southwest are in financial distress, with up to 20% of apartment loans being at risk.
- Benton County, Washington is seeing a rise in real estate fraud involving criminals posing as legitimate property owners.
- Britain’s housebuilding industry put a recovery on hold in June as construction firms delayed projects ahead of the general election.
- CoStar Group was hit with a trade secrets lawsuit from rival Move Inc.
- Multiple homeowners claim a North Carolina builder took bank draws and cash, leaving their homes unfinished.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Point taken: don’t build in NC.
Startups
Bullish News
- Blackstone sold Japanese drugmaker Alinamin to MBK Partners for $2.17 billion.
- Industry Ventures raised a $900 million early-stage hybrid fund for investing in emerging managers.
- Investors poured $27.1 billion into AI startups in the US from April to June.
- AI coding startup Magic sought a $1.5 billion valuation in a new funding round led by Alphabet’s GV fund.
- AI deals lifted US venture capital funding to the highest level in two years.
- Legal AI startup Harvey reportedly sought $100 million in funding at a $1.5 billion valuation.
- Cairn Oil & Gas tapped its network of over 2,000 startups on Thursday to fuel innovation.
- Rapid7 reached a deal to acquire attack surface management startup Noetic Cyber.
Bearish News
- Matrix Partners rebranded its China and India units to escape political scrutiny.
- UK startups criticized a proposal to penalize companies listing abroad, calling it “dumb” and “dangerous.”
- Cultivated meat startup Upside Foods initiated a fresh round of layoffs.
- Despite 36 IPOs in early 2024, the life sciences sector is still far from the 2021 peak of 150 IPOs.
- Affirm believes the personal info of its card users was compromised in a cybersecurity incident at Evolve Bank.
How to invest in startups right now:
Are Upside Food’s layoffs really fresh or are these lab-made.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Kleiner Perkins closed on more than $2 billion in fresh capital on Monday across two funds.
- Lee Equity Partners closed its oversubscribed Fund IV at $1.3 billion.
- PE/venture capital firms accounted for 63% of the $46 billion that flowed into alternative investments in May.
- ESG funds collectively raised $55 billion in 2024 by April.
- The Hoffmann Family of Companies bought the Mackinac Island Ferry Company last Monday.
Bearish News
- Proposed US regulations would prohibit certain investments in Chinese technology companies.
- Global PE deals and exits lagged in the first half of 2024, with transactions down from $678.2 billion to $620.6 billion.
- India’s private markets show deal volumes down approximately 64% compared to 2022 highs.
- PE investments in health care face increased federal and state regulatory scrutiny.
- APG pulled the plug on its multibillion-dollar portfolio sale on Friday.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Welcome to the family, Mackinac.
Crypto
Bullish News
- Bitcoin rebounded above $63,500 after Binance scored a partial victory in its SEC lawsuit. It then dropped below $58k.
- Aave leapfrogged MakerDAO and doubled deposits to $11 billion.
- Jack Dorsey predicted Bitcoin could eventually replace the US dollar.
- Tether launched an educational program on Tuesday to boost crypto adoption in Turkey.
- Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX acquired BitOasis, marking its entry into the Middle East and North Africa region.
- Ethereum builder Consensys bought Wallet Guard to strengthen MetaMask security.
Bearish News
- Bitcoin was set for its biggest weekly fall in nearly a year, sliding as much as 8% to $53,523.
- Crypto majors plunged as much as 20% in 24 hours as movements from a Mt. Gox-linked wallet triggered $580 million in liquidations.
- Litecoin miner reserves have dropped to a multi-year low of 1.61 million LTC, the lowest since December 2011.
- Stolen cryptocurrency hacks have more than doubled globally to $1.38 billion in the first half of 2024.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Will classes in crypto be part of public education?
NFTs
Bullish News
- Yamakoshi’s NFT initiative has raised $423,000 to support its aging population, attracting 1,700 digital citizens.
- Web3 Apps attracted 10 million daily active users in Q2 2024, a 40% increase from the previous quarter.
- The Toledo Museum of Art will feature NFTs from the Ethiopian art collective Yatreda, being the first institution to do so.
- Sony Corporation has begun preparing the launch of a cryptocurrency exchange subsidiary.
- Pudgy Penguins, a collection of 8,888 unique NFT penguins, passed BAYC’s floor price.
- The Department of Treasury and IRS released final regulations requiring brokers to report gross proceeds on the sale of digital assets.
Bearish News
- NFT trading volume plunged 45% in Q2 to $2.24 billion, the lowest since late 2023.
- A user lost $240,000 in NFTs after falling for a phishing scheme on the Blur Marketplace.
- A federal court upheld a class action against DraftKings for allegedly violating securities laws with unregistered NFTs.
- Blockchain researcher soEasy accused the zkSync team of “insider minting” Libertas Omnibus NFTs for ineligible friends.
- Cryptoslam data showed a 45% drop in the NFT market in Q2 2024.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
NFTs… for old people!
Artwork
Bullish News
- A 14-year-old’s acrylic painting of a northern shoveler has generated over $1.7 million for wetland conservation.
- A Malaysian Chinese artist based in London was awarded the 2024 Artist Award at Frieze London.
- Scientists discovered the world’s oldest artwork in a cave on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.
- Titian’s early masterpiece sold for £17.56 million at Christie’s London last week.
- The Kimbell Art Museum acquired George Stubbs’s painting Mares and Foals Belonging to the 2nd Viscount Bolingbroke.
- Sotheby’s is hosting one of the biggest auctions of the year, featuring jerseys from the 2024 NBA Finals series.
Bearish News
- New York auction sales declined 22% to $1.4 billion compared to the previous year.
- Interpol’s ID-Art app hosts a database of over 52,000 stolen artworks, with thousands of artifacts disappearing each year.
- The former director of the British Museum suggested charging foreign tourists a £20 entry fee last week.
- A former New Orleans police officer was indicted on Wednesday for allegedly orchestrating an art insurance scam.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Might try my hand at acrylic painting.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- 83% of wealthy Americans ages 21-43 own or are interested in an art collection, investing in rare cars and collectibles over traditional stocks and bonds.
- One car collector made at least $3,000 on each of the 16 VW Beetles flipped.
- Friends secretly restored a 1965 Ford Mustang while its owner was deployed in Afghanistan.
- The Vintage Car Club’s annual Show & Shine Car Show & Swap Meet drew record numbers.
- Ten Land Rovers and Range Rovers used by Queen Elizabeth II will make their US debut at the 2024 Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance.
- An unrestored 1970 Lamborghini Miura P400 S is expected to fetch up to $2.5 million at auction.
Bearish News
- The Better Business Bureau warned buyers about a classic car scam costing victims up to $30,000 in lost deposits.
- Comedian Tony Knight was tragically killed when a large tree branch fell on him at the Rock’&’Cars Festival in France.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Googling how to properly flip cars.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- In June, CAC-approved coins fetched premiums in auctions, some selling for nearly double non-CAC/CACG counterparts.
- Nearly 800 Civil War-era gold coins, dated between 1840 and 1863, were unearthed in Kentucky, valued at over $2 million.
- The ANA is recognizing numismatic role models at the 2024 ANA World’s Fair of Money, including Rick Snow as Dealer of the Year.
- The 1999-P American Silver Eagle Proof, the second-to-last regular Proof struck at Philadelphia Mint, had a mintage of 549,769.
Bearish News
- The FBI issued a warning of a collectible coin scam impacting over 100 victims in at least 30 states, causing $9 million in losses.
- A Florida man was arrested for stealing $5,000 from laundromat coin machines, facing grand theft and burglary charges.
- Consumer advocates warn Canada is “sleepwalking” into a cashless society, with cash transactions dropping from 54% in 2009 to 10% in 2021.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
$5,000 in quarters is actually pretty impressive.
Farmland
Bullish News
- The University of Reading purchased a 635-acre farm for £16 million to support its Agrifood Futures Strategy.
- Otsego Land Trust secured up to $2.1 million in state grants to protect 738 acres of agricultural land in New York.
- New Jersey’s corporate tax surtax revival will send over $250 million to open space, farmland, and historical preservation.
- A joint study found permaculture significantly improves biodiversity, soil quality, and carbon storage, with yields comparable to industrial agriculture.
- Nebraska’s average agricultural land value increased by 5% to $4,015 per acre, marking five consecutive years of increases.
Bearish News
- North Carolina lost over 11,000 farms between 2002 and 2022, with Wake County losing 182 farms and 30,000 acres.
- Indiana’s farmland inventory decreased by about 350,000 acres from 2010-2022.
- For every one farmer using conservation practices, 1,000 US farmers are not, hindering nutrient runoff reduction plans.
- Organic farmers face 30% higher production costs than conventional farms, while prices rose only 3%.
- Tyson Foods is reintroducing antibiotics to its poultry supply chain after removing them in 2017.
- Kraft Heinz reported a 1.2% decrease in Q1 2024 net sales compared to last year.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Might need to start making my nuggets at home.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Jewelry was the top performer in global luxury spending, which hit a record $1.6 trillion last year.
- Saks Fifth Avenue’s parent company signed a deal to buy Neiman Marcus Group for $2.65 billion, with Amazon holding a minority stake.
- Luxury food brands like Flamingo Estate have positioned themselves as their own form of luxury house.
- Luxury perception is transforming, driven by sustainability and technology, according to a KPMG study.
- Marlow’s Tavern restaurants gifted Rolex watches to employees who have been with the company for 15 years.
Bearish News
- The personal luxury goods market declined 1-3% in Q1 2024 due to Chinese market pressure and Gen Z delaying luxury spending.
- WSJ report on raids of luxury brands in Italy raised concerns about exploited workers, with Dior paying $57 to a supplier for a $2,780 handbag.
- Gen Z luxury consumers value the shopping experience as much as the product, ranking expensiveness 13th in defining luxury.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Would love to be introduced to Dior’s supplier.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Constellation Brands’ spirits sales rose 8% in Q1 fiscal 2025 to $59.7 million, despite a 7% decline overall.
- Edrington’s revenue rose 11% to £1.16 billion, driven by The Macallan and strong growth in Asia Pacific.
- Napa Valley Wine Train is going green with a new clean diesel engine, aiming for a fully green fleet by 2025.
- New York State distilleries are set to ship directly to consumers under a new law awaiting the governor’s signature.
- Heineken USA CEO Maggie Timoney expected strong July 4th sales, with non-alcoholic beverages like Heineken 0.0 up double digits.
Bearish News
- Canada sold 192.4 million liters of spirits in FY 2023, down from 193.6 million the previous year.
- Casey Alexander scammed over 150 individuals out of $13 million in a wine and whiskey investment scheme.
- Hong Kong’s 2023 net wine imports are down 40% from 2018 levels.
- An Indian state inspection found child laborers as young as 13 working 11-hour shifts at a Som Group distillery.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
I don’t care where it’s going, I want on that wine trian.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Morningstar upgraded Sony’s moat rating to “Wide” and raised its fair-value estimate by 9-12.5%.
- Stockholm emerged as a European hub for music tech, with 13 of 69 notable startups based in the city in 2024.
- Omdia forecasts global music sales are set to reach $53.4 billion by 2028, with China surpassing the UK by 2027.
- The 48th San Francisco International LGBTQ+ Film Festival awarded $40,000 in funding to LGBTQ+ filmmakers.
- Skydance Media’s $1.75 billion deal to acquire National Amusements, controlling Paramount Global, could be finalized by June 8.
- Lady Gaga reportedly recorded over 20 songs, including four originals, for Joker: Folie à Deux.
Bearish News
- Cineworld announced it may close a quarter of its 100 UK cinemas after filing for Chapter 11 in the US.
- Spotify’s audiobook bundle cut music royalties by $150 million, prompting a complaint to the US FTC.
- Warner and Sony Music warned over 700 tech companies against using their music to train AI without permission.
- Major record labels sued the makers of AI music apps Suno and Udio, seeking $150,000 per infringed track.
- Cardi B, her label, and producers have been sued by two rappers for allegedly sampling their song ‘Greasy Frybread.’
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Grab your headphones. It’s time to move to Stockholm.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- The metal recycling market is projected to reach $767.9 billion by 2029, growing at 6.8% CAGR.
- Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. shares rose 3.38% to C$74.36, outperforming the Canadian market.
- Beacon Roofing Supply acquired two Florida metal roofing companies last week.
- The Metals Innovation Initiative (MI2) partnered with Render Capital for a global search for pilot-ready innovations.
Bearish News
- Over a dozen metals, including lead and arsenic, were found in tampons sold in the US and Europe.
- O3 Mining Inc. granted directors deferred share units instead of cash for Q2 2024 fees.
- China declared rare earth metals are state property, warning against encroachment.
- A new study found elevated copper levels in waste plumes from proposed deep-sea mining in Clarion-Clipperton Zone.
- Burglars broke into a West Hollywood jewelry store twice in one day last week, emptying all inventory.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Twice in one day… that’s just insulting.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- The global collectible card game market, valued at $13.27 billion in 2023, is forecast to reach $35.78 billion by 2030.
- Consumers 18 and over became the largest demographic for toy purchases, spending over $1.53 billion.
- Walmart invited sellers to a new “Collectibles Experience” and offered zero referral fees from July 1 to September 30, 2024.
- The global comic book market is estimated to grow by $3.25 billion from 2024-2028, driven by successful TV shows and movies.
Bearish News
- A historic 250-pound Schlitz beer sign from 1964 was stolen in Wisconsin, and its owners are pleading for its return.
- Mike Bibby denied choking Fat Joe over rare sneakers, claiming he just had his hand on Joe’s throat.
- Kanye West’s Yeezy website stopped accepting orders after cutting prices to $20 due to financial and legal issues.
- Nike shares fell 19.98%, the biggest one-day drop in its history, due to a sales decline.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
If you want to be a Wisconsin thief, you better hit the gym first.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Orange Domains launched ‘.locker’, a new TLD combining Web2 and Web3 capabilities, backed by major firms.
- Telescents, Inc. purchased multiple ‘fragrance’ domains, with Sedo’s top sale being TextFree.com for $81,102.
- Crazy Domains added generative AI to its website builder, aiding SMBs, following moves by Bluehost, Wix, and others.
- The .ai namespace neared 500,000 domains by July 1, 2024, with sound.ai selling for $250,000 and girlfriend.ai for $170,000.
Bearish News
- Infostealer malware logs revealed 3,324 unique credentials used to access known CSAM websites.
- Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman denied association with domains claiming future leadership bids.
- The NYC mayor’s office warned of a scam involving fake websites for parking ticket payments.
- OpenText announced 1,200 layoffs as part of a “business optimization plan.”
- Paramount Global shut down the websites of several cable networks, including MTV News.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
As if it couldn’t get any crazier.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC, ETH, and a couple Star Wars Action figures in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.