Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Global unemployment held at a historic low of 5%
- Real Estate: San Diego mortgage rates climbed above 7%
- Startups: Egyptian startups secured $329 million in 2024
- Private Credit: European PE deal value rose 78% in 2024
- Crypto: Phantom Wallet raised $150 million at a $3B valuation
- NFTs: Sotheby’s auctioned NBA Top Shot NFTs
- Art: Sotheby’s announced its first Saudi sale
- Vintage Autos: Broad Arrow Auctions hosted a 100-car sale
- Coins: Archaeologists found a 160-coin Hasmonean hoard
- Farmland: Welsh farm incomes fell 39% year-on-year
- Luxury: Rolex prices on the resale market hit a four-year low
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Neurita Tequila grew 169%
- Film & Music: Sony acquired Supraphon
- Precious Metals: Kentucky dropped sales tax on gold & silver
- Collectibles: A 1949 Marilyn Monroe contract entered auction
- Websites: Google will launch .channel domains in February
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Global unemployment held at a historic low of 5%, with youth employment improving.
- China’s economy expanded by 5.4% in Q4 2024, exceeding market expectations and magically hitting precise government estimates, with retail sales jumping 3.7%.
- The IMF raised its US growth forecast to 2.7% for 2025, up from the previous 2.2% estimate.
- US consumer spending rose 0.4% in December, reaching $729.2 billion.
- Producer prices increased moderately by 0.2% in December, below expectations of 0.3%.
- Lithuania announced plans to boost defense spending to 5-6% of GDP by 2026.
Bearish News
- US inflation rose to 2.9% in December, up from 2.7% in November, with grocery and airfare prices surging.
- South Korea’s unemployment rate jumped to 3.7% in December, the highest since June 2021.
- The US federal budget deficit is projected to reach $2.7 trillion by 2035.
- Russia’s inflation climbed to 9.5% in December despite interest rates at 21%.
What are the odds?
The improvement of youth unemployment has yet to reach my little brother.
Get $10 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
Altea Highlights
It’s been a busy beginning to 2025, with two new deals dropping over at Altea.
But before we begin, let’s celebrate a win. The first loan made via Film I has been paid back. LPs earned 9% absolute interest on a five-week loan (that’s 149% IRR for those scoring at home).
Wait, you’re not a member yet?!
For a limited time, you can join Altea – the world’s most enriching community for alternative investors – for only $99.
Because Altea members get so much value from their membership (there are no fees on deals, for one), we usually charge $2,500 upfront for the whole year.
But because I’m still hungover from the holidays, you can join today for only $99.
Deals members can invest in now:
Tomball Industrial Real Estate | 40% IRR
I’ve been keeping an eye on this deal since December, and I didn’t think we’d have the opportunity to get involved. But a funder fell through at the last minute, and how we have the chance to Co-GP it. Big things happen.
It’s short-dated, though, so we need to move quickly if we’re going to take a big slice.
👉 Commit here
Deal Basics
- Minimum Investment: $25,000
- Projected IRR: 40.1-49.7%
- Total Investment Size: $2.25M purchase price + improvements
- Investment Type: Value-Add Industrial Real Estate
- Investment Duration: 12-18 months
- Structure: 16% preferred return | 60% LP/40% GP profit split
- Management Fee: 2% | Nil for Altea members
- Name of Deal Sponsor: Block & Co. (Adam Block)
👉 View our full deal memo
Note – I’ve been more conservative than the GP, forecasting a potential 8x to 8.5x cap rate at exit, which is why the IRR in our memo differs from his literature.
👉 View the data room
The data room includes an FAQ compiled based on potential investors’ initial queries. You can view it here.
🚀 CryptoONE – Altea’s take on blockchain investing
This is something John B and I put together after a very long dive into the real-world applications of the blockchain. It really does solve everything.
CryptoONE is Altea’s micro venture capital fund targeting early-stage blockchain infrastructure and applications.
The fund leverages unique access to deal flow through the GPs’ networks in the blockchain ecosystem, positioning itself at the intersection of traditional finance and decentralized systems.
Deal Basics
- Fund Name: CryptoONE
- Focus: Early-stage blockchain infrastructure and applications
- Target Size: $1M
- Minimum Investment: $10,000, preference given to larger checks
- Management Fee: 2% | Nil for Altea members
- Carried Interest: 20%
- Target Initial Close: Mid-February 2024
- Fund Managers: John Belitsky & Wyatt Cavalier
👉 Review the full deal memo
👉 Express Interest
Check out our three-part series on investing in the blockchain:
- It’s time to invest in crypto
- Where is money being made on the blockchain?
- Crypto is growing up: Real opportunities in a maturing industry
Remember, Altea members pay 0% management fees.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Blackstone invested in an 849-unit single-family rental portfolio valued at $300 million in Phoenix and Denver.
- JPMorgan Chase expanded its San Francisco presence to 280,000 square feet at 560 Mission St.
- GuocoLand secured $908 million in green loans for its flagship mixed-use development in Singapore.
- Rhode Island’s Residential Properties Ltd. achieved over $1 billion in sales volume in 2024.
- Kering and Ardian formed a joint venture for prime Paris real estate, with Ardian acquiring a 60% stake for €837 million.
Bearish News
- Maryland Attorney General sued RealPage and landlords for allegedly inflating rents through price-fixing algorithms.
- The DOJ accused six major landlords of scheming to keep rents high across 1.3 million units in 43 states.
- San Diego mortgage rates climbed above 7%, pushing 500,000 buyers out of the market for each 0.5% rate increase.
- Florida homes spent 70 days on the market in December 2024, the slowest since 2019.
- Punta Gorda, Florida showed a 70% probability of home price declines in 2025.
How to invest in real estate right now:
I have a feeling it’s more than just those six.
Startups
Bullish News
- AWS partnered with General Catalyst to accelerate healthcare AI development, starting with Aidoc and Commure.
- Insight Partners raised $12.5 billion for its thirteenth fund, bringing total assets under management to $90 billion.
- A16z and Eli Lilly launched a $500 million Biotech Ecosystem Fund to invest in therapeutic platforms and health technologies.
- Egyptian startups secured $329 million in funding in 2024, maintaining leadership in Africa’s startup ecosystem.
- Macquarie Asset Management committed to invest up to $5 billion in Applied Digital’s data center projects.
Bearish News
- DoorDash drivers were exploited in a theft scheme targeting Apple products.
- Robinhood agreed to pay $45 million in SEC fines for multiple violations including cybersecurity and recordkeeping failures.
- Audio platform Pocket FM announced its third round of layoffs in six months, cutting 75 more employees.
How to invest in startups right now:
Robinhood is back in the hot seat.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Ardian raised $30 billion for PE secondaries, with 22% from retail investors.
- Global PE deal value reached $639 billion in 2024, a 24.7% increase from 2023.
- Goldman Sachs created a Capital Solutions Group to expand its private credit business.
- European PE deal value rose 78% to $133 billion in 2024.
- Ares Management secured a record €30 billion for private direct lending.
- Franklin Templeton launched a $904.5 million secondary PE fund with quarterly liquidity options.
Bearish News
- Kentucky reached a $227.5 million settlement with KKR, Blackstone, and others over fiduciary breach claims.
- Global buyout exit values dropped to $392.5 billion in 2024, a five-year low.
- PE firm MiddleGround Capital faced a lawsuit over $22 million in unpaid revenue shares.
- The pound’s decline to a one-year low pushed UK public company valuations to a 40% discount versus global peers.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Ardian is on the up and up.
Crypto
Bullish News
- DJT dropped a meme coin whose market cap rocketed past $50 billion.
- Crypto.com became the first exchange to receive MiCA license approval for EU-wide operations.
- Grayscale XRP Trust reopened to institutional investors with $16.45 million AUM as XRP reached $3.27.
- Phantom Wallet raised $150 million at a $3 billion valuation.
- eToro filed for a US IPO targeting a $5 billion valuation, partnering with Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and UBS.
Bearish News
- Block agreed to pay $255 million in settlements over Cash App’s poor security and fraud issues.
- North Korean hackers stole $659 million in crypto assets through multiple hacks in 2024.
- Digital Currency Group and its former Genesis CEO paid $38.5 million to SEC for misleading investors.
- Cardano’s ADA price dropped 6.27% from the controversy over IOG’s holdings.
Congrats to crypto.com!
NFTs
Bullish News
- Sotheby’s auctioned NBA Top Shot NFTs valued between $500 and $3,000 each.
- The Palestine Museum US released its first NFT collection on OpenSea, featuring work from Mohammed Alhaj.
- The global NFT market is expected to grow to $84.13 billion by 2029 with a 30.3% CAGR.
Bearish News
- Over 7 million OpenSea user emails were publicly exposed from a 2022 data breach.
- MakersPlace NFT marketplace ceased operations after 6 years, citing investment challenges.
- NFT trading volumes fell 19% in 2024, with sales dropping to their lowest level since 2020.
- CryptoPunks IP faced uncertainty as Yuga Labs considered selling the collection’s rights.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Crypto companies seem to be walking the razor’s edge between jumping ship or doubling down.
Artwork
Bullish News
- The Vancouver Art Gallery received a $10 million gift of 122 contemporary artworks from collectors Brigitte and Henning Freybe.
- South Korea announced plans to build four new museums in Sejong by 2028, including a digital cultural heritage center.
- Singapore’s Art SG fair saw strong sales, with White Cube selling a Tunji Adeniyi-Jones painting for $350,000.
- The NEA awarded $36.8 million in grants to over 1,400 artists and organizations across the US.
- Leading LA museums created a $12 million relief fund to support artists affected by wildfires.
- Sotheby’s announced its first Saudi sale, which is estimated at up to $1.5 million each.
Bearish News
- Munich’s Galerie Thomas faces criminal investigation with estimated debts over $10 million.
- Los Angeles wildfires destroyed millions in artwork, including two years of completed works for Alec Egan’s upcoming solo show.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
I’ll be at TEFAF Maastricht in March. Join me.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Broad Arrow Auctions announced a 100-car sale featuring a 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing at $1.5 million.
- Barrett-Jackson’s Scottsdale auction opened with record attendance after $207.6 million in 2023 sales.
- Ken Roath’s collection, including a 1955 Ferrari 250 Europa GT, heads to Gooding & Co.’s auction.
- Jay Leno delivered meals to LA firefighters in his vintage 1941 American LaFrance fire truck.
- A 1970 Chevrolet Chevelle Malibu SS 454 with 36,000 miles is listed for $100,000.
Bearish News
- Los Angeles lost over 6,000 collector cars to the Palisades fire.
- Hackers disrupted an Australian rare car parts website, blocking access to vintage components.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Leno has a vehicle for every occasion.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- The global coin collection market is projected to hit $18.1 billion in 2023 and grow to $43.9 billion by 2034.
- A rare 1897-O Morgan Silver Dollar, MS66+, heads to auction at GreatCollections.
- Archaeologists found a 160-coin Hasmonean hoard dating back 2,100 years in the Jordan Valley.
- Congress proposed the Rosie the Riveter Coin Act to honor WWII Home Front workers.
- A rare Bicentennial Quarter in 90% silver reached a $15 million valuation.
Bearish News
- A retired man in Mangaluru lost Rs 58.26 lac in a coin collection scam.
- CNG Auction House sold ancient Iranian coins despite legal action by Iran’s Cultural Heritage Ministry.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Funny, I was looking for my 160-coin Hasmonean hoard…
Farmland
Bullish News
- Southwestern Ontario farmland prices hit $25,370 per acre, with some areas reaching $60,000.
- USDA committed $14.4 million to boost urban agriculture nationwide.
- Oregon’s K Bar J Ranch, spanning 1,499 acres, was listed for $25.6 million.
- Suffolk County added 18 farms, the only New York region to grow its agricultural footprint.
Bearish News
- UK farmland faced contamination from forever chemicals exceeding safety thresholds.
- Severe flooding destroyed thousands of hectares of farmland in Kenya.
- US corn production dropped 3% to 14.9 billion bushels, missing 2023 estimates.
- Massachusetts farms saw steep sales declines after Healthy Incentives Program cuts.
- Welsh farm incomes fell 39% year-on-year, with dairy farms down 59%.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Who is on the market for the K Bar J Ranch?
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Richemont’s quarterly sales rose 10% to €6.2 billion.
- Reliance Retail announced plans to bring Saks Fifth Avenue to India’s luxury market.
- ASEAN’s hard luxury goods market is projected to hit $9.19 billion by 2035, growing 7.5% annually.
- Bottega Veneta opened a Tokyo boutique with private salons and made-to-order services.
Bearish News
- Luxury market growth is forecast to slow to 1-3% annually through 2027.
- Rolex prices on the secondhand market dropped to a four-year low, below January 2021 levels.
- The luxury industry lost 50 million customers in 2024 over concerns about quality and value.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
I wouldn’t say it was the quality and value that was stopping me from shopping luxury.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Neurita Tequila grew 169% year-on-year and expanded into Australia and France.
- The distilled spirits market is projected to hit $246.71 billion by 2029.
- Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VII completed a $175 million IPO.
- The organic wine market is set to triple to $25.07 billion by 2030, growing at 11.3% annually.
Bearish News
- UK wine businesses face a £175 million tax hike, with duty on 14.5% wines up 44% in 18 months.
- Distil’s Q4 revenue plunged 59%.
- Brown-Forman cut 12% of its workforce and closed its Louisville barrel plant.
- Constellation Brands reported a 14% drop in Q3 wine and spirits sales.
- A Miami thief stole $2,100 worth of wine in six incidents.
- About 45 US craft distilleries closed in two years, with Waterford Whisky entering receivership.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
The Great US Craft Brewery Renaissance is finally winding down.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- The UK pledged £40 million to boost creative industries outside London.
- Global music streaming hit $37.1 billion in 2023, projected to grow to $125.3 billion by 2032.
- Sony acquired Supraphon, the Czech Republic’s largest independent record label.
- Reservoir Media bought Lastrada Entertainment’s catalog of 5,600 compositions.
- Universal Music Group announced that Pershing Square will sell $500 million in shares to facilitate a US listing.
Bearish News
- Cineworld announced mass UK theater closures, including Nottingham on February 2.
- Drake sued UMG for $10 billion over defamatory content in Kendrick Lamar’s diss track.
- Disney faces a $10 billion copyright lawsuit over alleged idea theft for Moana.
- Cineworld’s Northampton closure ended a 30-year cinema operation at the location.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Cineworlds are dropping left and right.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Canada Nickel secured a $500,000 grant for a zero-carbon battery metals facility producing 75,000 tonnes annually.
- Saudi Arabia allocated six mining sites totaling 890 sq km for copper, gold, zinc, and silver exploration.
- The transition metals market is projected to hit $1.7 trillion by 2032, growing at 4.78% annually.
- Kentucky removed sales tax on gold and silver transactions.
- Gates and Bezos invested $537 million in KoBold Metals for rare metals exploration in Africa.
Bearish News
- Mitsubishi Corp lost $87.5 million in a Chinese copper fraud case, halting metal trading in China.
- Signet Jewelers reported a 2% holiday sales decline, missing projections by $60 million.
- CME copper’s premium over LME widened to $400 per ton during tariff concerns.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Zero-carbon battery metals facility sounds like an oxymoron.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Shohei Ohtani’s 2024 Topps Dynasty 1/1 card featuring game-used memorabilia is heading to Goldin.
- Al Milgrom’s Spider-Man #194 cover art sold for $1.02 million at Heritage Auctions.
- Tales of Suspense #39 CGC 9.8 featuring Iron Man’s debut fetched $2 million in a private sale.
- Sotheby’s will auction the most complete Jewish baseball card collection, expected to reach $700,000.
- A rare 1949 Marilyn Monroe contract entered auction just before her breakthrough.
Bearish News
- A theft ring targeted 19 museums, stealing Yogi Berra’s rings and Roger Maris’ MVP trophy.
- Police uncovered counterfeit sports items and fake certificates in McKinney, Texas.
- Diamond Comic Distributors filed Chapter 11 with over $60 million in debt, impacting smaller publishers.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
If I buy a new comic now, how long do I have to wait until it’s worth $1.02 million
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Google will launch .channel domains in February 2025, with early access at $11,999.
- Unstoppable Domains partnered with Onchain to roll out .ONCHAIN blockchain domains.
- BestOdds.com and Bet.bet sold for $600,000, while Boyfriend.ai fetched $230,000.
Bearish News
- Hackers hid malware in website images on trusted sites like archive.org.
- GoDaddy faced criticism for lax security despite claims of a security-first approach.
- Atom.com‘s Sapphire Marketplace triggered phishing warnings due to past domain usage.
- Expired domains with active Google Workspace accounts exposed sensitive data to new owners.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Anybody got $12K burning a hole in their pocket to drop on a .channel?
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at CapitalPad.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.