Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
While you’re here, check out Simon’s piece, diving into how climate change will impact international real estate.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: The US dollar has dropped 5% from its 2024 highs
- Real Estate: The total value of US homes hit $49.6 trillion
- Startups: Salesforce announced plans to acquire startup Own
- Private Credit: Clearlake Capital agreed to acquire MV Credit
- Crypto: Uniswap Labs has been charged a $175,000 penalty
- NFTs: Solana secured the second spot in NFT sales volume
- Art: Sotheby’s reported an 88% decline in core earnings
- Vintage Autos: A 1985 Audi Coupé is set to fetch $780,000
- Coins: A Bicentennial Quarter was valued at nearly $4 million
- Farmland: USDA reported cropland value hit $5,570 per acre
- Luxury: Balenciaga opened a 9,795-square-foot flagship store
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Colorado liquor sales fell 6%
- Film & Music: Litmus Music acquired Opus Music Group
- Precious Metals: Antimony hit $25,000 per tonne
- Collectibles: A Kobe Bryant patch card sold for $1.58 million
- Websites: Domain name fan.io sold for $50,000
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Restaurants and bars continued to outpace most other sectors in hiring during August, adding 29,900 jobs.
- America’s employers added 142,000 jobs in August, up from 89,000 in July, as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% and inflation fell back to the Fed’s 2% target.
- NOAA Fisheries received an unprecedented $1.2 billion investment from the Inflation Reduction Act to support coastal economies.
- Weekly unemployment insurance claims fell to a two-month low of 227,000 for the week ending August 31.
Bearish News
- The US dollar has dropped 5% from its 2024 highs as investors anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- China’s manufacturing PMI hit a six-month low of 49.1 in August, with factory gate prices at their 14-month worst.
- US manufacturing contracted in August, with ISM PMI below 50 for the fifth month, as July construction spending fell 0.3%.
- Australia’s Q2 GDP grew 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while household spending decreased 0.2%.
- Dollar Tree stock plummeted 26% as rising living costs impacted low-income shoppers’ purchasing power.
What are the odds?
Big moves this week for both the jobs figures and last week’s numbers sunk in. The number of rate cuts is factoring a full point now by the end of 2024.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- The total value of US homes reached a record $49.6 trillion, gaining $3.1 trillion over the past 12 months.
- Detroit’s median home sale price skyrocketed 324% over 15 years, from $58,900 in 2009 to $250,000 in May 2024.
- The median home price for single-family homes in Boston reached $925,000 in July 2024, a 1.6% increase from the previous year.
- Zillow upgraded AI search, enabling natural language queries for home-seekers based on commute, budget, schools, and local amenities.
Bearish News
- Commercial real estate loan delinquencies rose 16 basis points to 1.40% in Q2.
- Landlords are facing a $1.5 trillion commercial real estate debt maturity wall, which accounts for 40% of the looming maturities.
- China’s home presales reached an 18-year low as consumers shy away after cash-strapped developers halted construction.
- The Phoenix housing market moved into neutral territory, with homes taking almost a week longer to sell and over 26% receiving a price cut.
- New York City and Chicago remain the most vulnerable housing markets, along with 12 California counties, according to ATTOM researchers.
- Two Oregon real estate investors were indicted for an $18 million fraud scheme.
- Three real estate coaches were ordered to refund $2.8 million after scamming thousands in fraudulent training programs.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Hey Zillow, find me a house I can afford.
Startups
Bullish News
- OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever’s new AI safety startup SSI raised $1 billion at a $5 billion valuation from investors.
- Cell therapy biotech ArsenalBio raised a $325 million Series C round with backing from Nvidia and Regeneron.
- PruVen Capital closed a $378.5 million Fund II to back fintech and enterprise startups.
- Salesforce announced plans to acquire data backup startup Own for $1.9 billion in cash, marking its return to sizable acquisitions.
- Climate tech startup GALY raised an oversubscribed $33 million Series B led by Breakthrough Energy Ventures.
Bearish News
- ABL Space Systems announced layoffs after back-to-back rocket failures in January and August 2023.
- Andreessen Horowitz left its Miami office after just two years, as VC investment in Miami dropped 70% to $2 billion in 2023.
- SellerX, once valued at $1 billion, will go up for auction after defaulting on debt payments.
- A startup hired to provide Nevada with real-time carbon emissions data allegedly failed to deliver, despite receiving $5.7 million in government contracts.
How to invest in startups right now:
Miami is off to find a new vice.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Fee income from private markets is expected to double by 2032, reaching $2 trillion.
- Park Square Capital raised €3.4 billion for its latest European direct lending fund, a 50% increase from the previous vintage.
- Thornburg and Bow River announced a joint venture to provide flexible private credit solutions to lower- and middle-market businesses.
- Blackstone announced an agreement to acquire AirTrunk in a $24 billion transaction, its largest investment in the Asia Pacific region.
- Clearlake Capital agreed to acquire MV Credit from Natixis Investment Managers, bringing its AUM to over $90 billion.
- Oyster raised $59 million in Series D funding, valuing the company at $1.2 billion.
- Honeywell completed its acquisition of CAES Systems from Advent International for approximately $1.9 billion.
Bearish News
- California legislators passed law AB 3129, mandating AG notice and approval for some PE and hedge fund healthcare investments starting in 2025.
- Australia’s Future Fund saw its PE exposure shrink after “considerable” distributions.
- The UK PE industry warned that capital gains tax changes could be a “tipping point”, pushing staff to relocate.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
PE in healthcare is about to have its reckoning.
Crypto
Bullish News
- VC crypto fundraising is on track to surpass 2023’s $2.6 billion, with $2.2 billion raised so far in 2024.
- Spot bitcoin ETFs collectively boasted more than $52 billion in assets about eight months after their debut.
- Crypto exchanges saw increased trading for two months as August volumes rose 5.38% to $5.22 trillion in spot and derivatives.
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong executed the first AI-to-AI crypto transaction.
- Grayscale added 10,000 LTC to its portfolio, now holding 1.86 million LTC ($122 million).
- IOTA’s EVM surpassed $5 million in total value locked (TVL).
Bearish News
- Solana’s price fell 12% as Pump.funsold $41 million worth of SOL tokens.
- Crypto exchange Huobi plans to lay off 20% of its staff as the industry slump deepens.
- Uniswap Labs has been charged a $175,000 penalty from the CFTC for unlawfully offering margined retail commodity transactions in digital assets.
- The X accounts of Lara and Tiffany Trump were hacked to put out a fake announcement about a crypto project scam.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Try explaining to your uncle what an AI-to-AI crypto transaction is.
NFTs
Bullish News
- Magic Eden maintained its position as the leading NFT marketplace in August 2024, capturing a 36.7% market share.
- The Crescendo upgrade to Flow, validated by over 400 nodes including some operated by Google, went live on the mainnet.
- A rare Ape-themed CryptoPunk sold for over $1.5 million on September 5.
- The Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT collection amassed a sale volume of $848,676 in 24 hours.
- Solana secured the second spot in NFT sales volume at $78.8 million in August 2024.
Bearish News
- A shocking 96% of NFTs are now considered ”dead”, with nearly half of NFT holders facing significant losses and an average loss of 44.5%.
- The monthly sales volume of digital collectibles fell to $374 million in August, a steep 76% decline from March’s peak of $1.6 billion.
- OpenSea CEO pledged $5 million for NFT creators’ legal fees during SEC scrutiny, vowing to ”stand our ground.”
- Lacoste has been accused of a scam after closing its NFT project UNDW3 and allegedly rug-pulling 1,000 Ethereum.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Wishing I had a rare Ape-themed CryptoPunk right about now.
Artwork
Bullish News
- Hauser & Wirth sold a 2021 Nicolas Party painting for $2.5 million and PKM sold a $1.5 million Yoo Youngkuk painting at Frieze Seoul.
- Apricus Art Collection launched a dual-platform system combining a global art marketplace and a social media app.
- The original artwork for Deadpool’s comic debut was put on sale for $7.5 million.
- Lost digital works by Andy Warhol, including a portrait of Debbie Harry, have been listed for $26 million after being rediscovered from an old diskette.
- Vincent van Gogh’s 1887 landscape “Les canots amarrés” is set to sell for up to $50 million at Christie’s Asia sale.
Bearish News
- Sotheby’s sued a Manhattan art dealer for refusing to pay $2.1 million for a Pissarro painting he bid on.
- Sotheby’s reported an 88% decline in core earnings and a 25% drop in auction sales for the first half of 2024.
- Museums in Paris saw attendance drop 25% during the Olympics, with the Louvre down 22% and Pompidou down 28%.
- An art thief who stole $6,500 paintings from a Palm Beach store by replacing price tags with $50 ones was caught and arrested.
- A judge said Norval Morrisseau’s legacy was “irrevocably damaged” due to art fraud as she sentenced David John Voss to 5 years in prison.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Good news for extremely wealthy Deadpool fans.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- A rare 1985 Audi Sport Quattro Coupé is estimated to fetch up to $780,000 at Bonhams Goodwood Revival sale.
- Worldwide Auctioneers concluded with a total final sale of $25 million and 90% of consignments finding new homes.
- Bonhams is set to auction “The Last Waltz,” a 1998 Porsche 911 Type 993 Turbo Coupé, estimated to reach $1,050,000.
- A rare 2007 Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren 722 Edition, once owned by basketball legend Michael Jordan, is up for sale.
- The Newport Car Museum received Tripadvisor’s Travelers’ Choice Award for 2024.
Bearish News
- The family of a deceased classic car collector accused a local dealer of selling four vintage cars and keeping over $240,000.
- A trailer fire destroyed a $2 million 1934 Hispano-Suiza J12 Vanvooren Cabriolet on Highway 68 after leaving the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance.
- A rare Mercedes 300 SL worth over one million euros was stolen during a prestigious vintage car event in Lanaken, Belgium.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Who’s coming with me to The Newport Car Museum?
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- A 1909/8 Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle graded MS66 sold for $217,600 at GreatCollections.
- A rare 1776 continental dollar coin found in a toffee tin is set to go up for auction on Oct. 3.
- The L.E. Bruun Collection, insured for $72.5 million, will auction its first coins this month, with a 1496 noble expected to fetch $672,510.
- A rare Bicentennial Quarter was valued at nearly $4 million.
- A 2014 £2 coin missing the words “Two Pounds” is being sold for over £500 on eBay.
Bearish News
- Sequim Police have begun investigating the theft of over $100,000 from a local coin business, affecting 19 victims.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I was just wondering where my old toffee tin was…
Farmland
Bullish News
- USDA reported cropland value hit a record $5,570 per acre, up 4.7%, with cash rents up 3.2% to $160.
- Farm Credit Illinois found farmland values increased by 7.5% in central and southern Illinois, hitting historic highs.
- Florida preserved 386 acres of agricultural land in Heart Bar Ranch with a $2.6 million easement.
- A tract of 84.05 acres in Iowa sold for $16,250 per acre, while Illinois land hit $17,700 per acre.
- Congressman Newhouse introduced a bill to ban China, Russia, and other adversaries from owning US farmland.
- USDA allocated $500 million for conservation through the Inflation Reduction Act to protect wetlands and farmlands.
- Natural Grocers partnered with Rodale Institute, aiming to raise $100,000 for regenerative organic farming.
Bearish News
- Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer shows farmers expect land values to drop in 2025.
- “Forever chemicals” are being detected at high levels on US farmland, raising health concerns.
- Florida’s citrus cultivation area dropped 17% from 2023.
- Senator Grassley predicted the 2018 Farm Bill would be extended, delaying new legislation.
- Global warming caused severe drought in Sicily, with wheat farms losing over 50% of their harvest.
- Floods in Nigeria killed nearly 200 people and destroyed 107,000 hectares of farmland.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Cropland is on the up and up!
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Balenciaga opened a 9,795-square-foot flagship store in New York’s SoHo featuring its Raw Architecture concept.
- The global leather handbags market is projected to grow by $9.3 billion from 2024-2028 at a 5.05% CAGR.
- Cartier hosted a soirée at the Venice Film Festival, featuring performances by Patti Smith and Nicola Piovani.
- Breitling secured an NFL partnership, unveiling 104 limited-edition Chronomat B01 watches for each team.
Bearish News
- Burberry dropped out of the FTSE 100, with its share price down over 53% this year.
- Hong Kong’s jewelry, watches, and valuable gift sales fell 25% year-on-year to $480.7 million in July.
- Secondhand luxury markets are seeing more plus-size listings, likely due to rising obesity medicine use.
- Thirteen LVMH brands joined a claim against Mastercard for inflated interchange fee overcharges.
- Swiss watchmakers Girard-Perregaux and Ulysse Nardin are seeking financial aid during declining demand.
- Luxury watches worth over £500,000 were seized in a £76 million care home fraud investigation.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Who’s picking up their football watch?
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- The Macallan set a new record with an 84-year-old Time: Space whisky, priced at $190,000.
- Gaucho Group Holdings partnered with Barrel & Wines to expand Algodon Fine Wines’ US reach.
- Mijenta Tequila launched Maestra Selection No. 1, a high-proof blanco made from seed-grown agaves.
- The University of Kentucky formed the Estate Whiskey Alliance with seven founding members.
- Roaming Road Spirits debuted as an independent bottler, offering curated single-cask spirits.
- Emirates introduced ten new high-quality spirits and beers to its onboard beverage menu.
Bearish News
- Changyu Pioneer Wine reported a nearly 40% profit drop in H1 2024, with revenue falling 22.6%.
- Due to weak wine demand, Constellation Brands may write down up to $2.5 billion in assets.
- Colorado liquor stores reported a 6% drop in alcohol sales volume, with wine sales down 16%.
- Australia’s alcohol industry grew 0.7% this year, marking its slowest growth in 25 years.
- Gen Z drinks 20% less alcohol than millennials, with 64% of US Gen Zers avoiding alcohol for six months.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
I can’t tell if Gen Z is lame or enlightened.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Litmus Music acquired Opus Music Group, funded by a $400 million credit facility.
- The UK live music industry reached $8.04 billion in 2023, with concerts generating $5.91 billion.
- Spain’s recorded music market grew 16.6% in H1 2024, with digital consumption making up 89.7%.
- Marty Stuart’s country music artifact collection will have a new home in Nashville.
Bearish News
- A music producer was arrested for allegedly scamming over $10 million in royalties with AI-generated songs.
- Float Fest was canceled, with Lil Wayne, The Kid LAROI, and Jessie Murph no longer performing.
- PVR INOX announced plans to close 70 underperforming screens in FY25 due to Rs 1,294 crore net debt.
- Regal Cinema Hollywood 24 in Georgia has closed after 25 years, the fourth closure since Regal’s bankruptcy.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
RIP Regal Cinema… Thanks for the flicks.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Antimony prices hit record highs above $25,000 per tonne as China restricted exports.
- Global gold ETFs attracted $2.1 billion in August, pushing AUM to a record $257 billion.
- Silver rebounded on strong Chinese demand, with June and July imports exceeding 400 tons.
- Gold rose above $2,500 as hopes for a Fed rate cut grew after an ADP NFP miss.
- GEM Digital Limited increased its investment in Cunningham Mining Ltd from $153 million to $336 million.
- 3DEO secured a $3.5 million investment from Mizuho Bank for metal additive manufacturing innovation.
Bearish News
- African Rainbow Minerals’ annual profit fell 43% due to a 40% drop in PGM prices.
- Analysts predicted a continued decline in silver due to the abundant mining supply.
- Goldman Sachs cut its 2025 copper price forecast by almost $5,000 due to shrinking demand in China.
- Gold retreated from near-record levels after mixed US jobs data.
- Diamond trading was sluggish in August due to seasonal effects and synthetic competition.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Bad time to need some antimony.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- A Kobe Bryant Logoman patch card sold for $1.58 million at Goldin.
- A rare fourth print Charizard Pokémon card is set to fetch over £8,000 at auction.
- The 2024 Topps Chrome Elly De La Cruz Superfractor 1/1 Autograph sold for $116,534 at Goldin.
- A letter from an 18-year-old Tiger Woods discussing racism sold for $25,620 at Goldin.
- Elvis Presley’s gold rings, valued at $35,000 to $60,000, headlined a Kruse GWS auction.
- Over 2,000 Game of Thrones props and memorabilia are up for auction in Texas, with bids up to $20,000.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo offered $1 million for a rare NBA card featuring LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant autographs.
Bearish News
- Thieves stole nearly $20,000 worth of Star Wars and G.I. Joe collectibles from a Santa Ana storage unit.
- Rudy Giuliani’s creditors have begun seeking his assets, including Yankees collectibles, after a $148 million judgment.
- Nick Young blamed Adidas Yeezy sneakers for his on-court struggles, citing “no stability.”
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
I regret throwing away my Pokemon cards.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Radix reported a record $5.16 million in H1 2024 premium domain sales, up 12% YoY.
- Hilco brokered the sale of Rocket.com, potentially one of the top domain sales ever.
- Zilch reported its first operating profit and a $130 million revenue run rate, nearly doubling YoY.
- Sedo’s top domain sales this week were fan.io for $50,000 and med.io for €33,684.
Bearish News
- The US Justice Department seized over 30 domains tied to Russia’s “Doppelganger” disinformation campaign.
- Three men in the UK pleaded guilty to operating otp.agency, which helped intercept one-time passcodes, targeting 12,500+ people.
- Wix shares have dropped 2.5% since its last earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
.io is having a moment!
That’s all for this week
Cheers, Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Money Pickle
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
