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Today is a deep dive into three assets:
- Mickey Mantle 1956 Topps PSA 8 x2 – IPOs 30th March on Collectable
- Willie Mays 1959 Topps PSA 9 x 2 – IPOs 31st March on Collectable`
- Messi 2004 Panini Sports Mega Cracks Barcelona Campeon #89 PSA 10 – IPOs 31st March on Otis
What is the Mickey Mantle 1956 Topps PSA 8 basket?
This is a pair of 1956 Mickey Mantle cards each graded PSA 8. Mantle won the Triple Crown in 1956, and this is considered an accessible and attractive card, even though it’s four (or five depending on your view) years newer than his most iconic cards.
There are 357 cards graded PSA 8 with 43 graded higher.
It IPOs on Collectable 30th March
Add this IPO to your calendar
Cultural Relevance
Mickey Mantle is the subject of the world’s most iconic baseball card, the $5.2m 1952 Topps. That card, along with perhaps the 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan, has helped propel sports cards into the mainstream in 2020 and 2021.
Surprisingly, most people who know about these things don’t rate Mantle in the top ten players of all time. That’s partly down to his injury-plagued career and partly due to his shortcomings on defense, but the man could hit a baseball.
Had it not been for his dodgy ACL, Mantle probably would still own the all-time record for Home Runs.
Over his 18 seasons, Mantle tallied up a lifetime WAR of 112.3, which means, to generalise, that he was responsible for more than 112 wins on his own. That’s good enough for top twenty all-time (again, surprising it’s so low). His most prolific seasons correlated strongly with the number of homeruns he hit, unsurprisingly.
Of the other legends in the top graph, this is how Mantle compares in terms of cultural longevity:
Babe Ruth remains king, Barry Bonds has the benefit of modernity, and Aaron’s results get a bump from his recent passing. So while his status as an actual baseball player might not match his status as a collectable icon, it seems prudent we should defer to the $5.2m elephant in the room.
Points – 10/10
Inferred Value – $35k
Mickey Mantle cards have held strong during the recent modern sell off and have actually continued to appreciate.
The most recent sale for this card was via Heritage Auctions for $17,400, and given the chart supporting it, that seems like a fair valuation for one card. As there are two, the value is $34,800.
The consigner is retaining $7,050 (25%) equity in the asset.
Inferred Value: $35k
Points 7/10
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 86% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Points 10/10
Subcategory Strength
The baseball card subcategory has returned 79% across the entire portfolio.
Points 8/10
Risk Profile
The baseball card subcategory has a standard deviation of 111% across all transactions. That’s high. Lower is better.
Points 1/10
Recent Growth Trend
This card has appreciated around 93% over the last twelve months.
Points 10/10
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Mickey Mantle has been relatively slow and steady over the last year, and it’s likely capital will continue to flow into his cards.
Points 8/10
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade daily.
Points 10/10
Platform Risk
Collectable is moderately transparent
Points 7/10
Intangibles
He would have hit 800+ home runs if it weren’t for his ACL.
Points 8/10
What is the Willie Mays 1959 Topps PSA 9 basket?
This is a pair of 1959 Willie Mays cards both graded PSA 9. As above, this issue is several years on from his rookie card. These cards are in the top 1.25% of those graded by PSA.
It IPOs on Collectable 31st March.
Add this IPO to your calendar
Cultural Relevance
Read all about Willie Mays here.
Points – 9/10
Inferred Value – $22,713
Before we begin, there’s an important bit to review from Collectable’s SEC filing for this card (all grammar errors etc theirs):
The two cards are owned, respectively, by Zev Partners is affiliated with Jason Epstein, our founder and President and by a shareholder in the Company’s parent company, Collectable Technologies, Inc. who is not an officer, director or greater than 5% shareholder of that company. The consignment price of the card owned by Zev Partners has not been determined by arms-length bargaining; accordingly, that price may be more than would be paid in an arms-length transaction and, therefore, favor Zev Partners rather than the Company. The consignment price of the second card has been determined based on recent public transactions of similar items. . See “ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST. Zev Partners acquired its card for $10,825. The second seller acquired his card for $9,000, so, collectively, the cost of the Underlying Asset is $19,825.
So caveat emptor there. Worth noting this is very common for Collectable IPOs.
There are three recent relevant sales of this card, two of which are mentioned above:
- 1/12/21: $10,778
- 1/11/21: $10,150
- 1/2/21: $9,500
There are no other sales for $9k or above in the card’s history, so based on the disclosure above, it looks like the consignors were the first and last transactions. That still leaves us a good comp at $10,150, so I’ll use that for our inferred value.
Mays cards have, on average, appreciated around 13% since that comp, so we’ll add that to the inferred value.
$10,050 x 2 x 1.13 = $22,713.
Those two consignors will retain $5,200 equity or 21.67% of the asset. They’ll also:
- get $15,600 back from their initial $19,825 investment.
- all in, they’ll have invested around $4,200 to acquire $5,200 worth of equity in this asset less than three months later.
Pretty good deal for them.
Inferred Value: $22,713
Points 4/10
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 86% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Points 10/10
Subcategory Strength
The baseball card subcategory has returned 79% across the entire portfolio.
Points 8/10
Risk Profile
The baseball card subcategory has a standard deviation of 111% across all transactions. That’s high. Lower is better.
Points 1/10
Recent Growth Trend
This card has appreciated around 150% over the last twelve months.
Points 10/10
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
We’re seeing a bit of a flight to quality at the minute, and some of the money fleeing modern cards is going into vintage baseball.
Points 6/10
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade daily.
Points 10/10
Platform Risk
Collectable is moderately transparent
Points 7/10
Intangibles
I hate retained equity, especially when it’s from the platform’s own directors and insiders.
Points 2/10
What is the Messi 2004 Panini Sports Mega Cracks Barcelona Campeon #89 PSA 10?
This is one of several (see comparison chart below) Lionel Messi rookie cards from the 2004 Panini set. It’s generally considered to be the least valuable of the lot due to its higher population, though I like the look of it quite a lot.
Graded 10/10, there are, obviously, none higher, but there are quite a few PSA 10s out there.
It IPOs on Otis 31st March.
Add this IPO to your calendar
Cultural Relevance
Lionel Messi is one of the four best footballers of all time, and many–including me–would argue he’s the greatest ever.
Yes better than Ronaldo. Better than Maradona. Better even than Pele.
He’s also the highest paid footballer in the world.
FC Barcelona had been around for 105 years before Messi and won 64 trophies. Since he’s arrived, he’s led them to an additional 34 pieces of hardware.
The man can do things with a football no human should be able to do.
Worldwide, he’s more popular than LeBron James, Mike Trout, and Tom Brady combined.
In Spain and France, he’s more popular than Jesus.
He once scored 91 goals in a single year. That’s the equivalent of hitting perhaps 180 home runs in a baseball season. 20 is considered elite.
He’s a very big deal.
Points – 10/10
Inferred Value – $15k
This card has been in freefall lately.
It follows a similar pattern to the rest of his rookie cards from 2004.
The chart paints a bottom for me, so I don’t think it’ll go much (if any) lower than $14,840. That’s our inferred value for this card.
Otis has one other Messi card currently trading, and it’s up around 100% since its IPO.
Inferred Value: $15k
Points 1/10
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 86% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Points 10/10
Subcategory Strength
The soccer card subcategory has returned 108% across the entire portfolio.
Points 10/10
Risk Profile
The soccer card subcategory has a standard deviation of 3% across all transactions. That’s very low. Lower is better.
Points 10/10
Recent Growth Trend
This card has appreciated over 500% in the last twelve months.
Points 10/10
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
There are a lot of his rookies, but compared to other major stars who broke out in the noughties — LeBron, Brady, there are relatively few. No refractors, only a couple major sets.
Messi has a long long way to go to catch up to the rest of his peers.
Points 10/10
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 30 day lockup period then will trade daily.
Points 10/10
Platform Risk
Otis is most transparent and well-capitalised.
Points 10/10
Intangibles
Just watch.
Points 10/10
Due Diligence Service
If you’re looking to make a big asset investment, we can help you perform due diligence. Stefan created and run Flippa’s Due Diligence program, and can offer the same service to you.
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