Welcome to Sports Cards Insider for December 22nd 2021 – FREE edition.
We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.
Sports Cards performance 2021
Another week, another couple of percent shed for sports cards heading into the end of 2021. While the volatility we saw earlier in the year is blessedly gone, I think we can all agree we’d prefer 10% to 15% swings any day as long as they were headed.
Checking in on CardLadder’s index, it was a good week for high-end cards while mid-end was up slightly over last week (when it was -5.58%). Lower-end cards continue to tumble.
In fact, every sport was up for the week for the first time in quite a while.
This could indicate that cards are oversold on the fractional platforms, based on two things we can see:
- General upswing in the broader CardLadder indices across all sports
- The best performance is coming from higher-end cards, which is what Rally, Collectable, and Otis specialise in.
The indices at OnlyAlt paint a different picture. While three of the five sports were up week on week, only football ekes out a positive return today. Baseball has also flipped from positive to negative over the quarter, which is discouraging.
Fractional secondary markets
Tier two sports cards like soccer and golf helped to prop up the asset class overall last week, while everything else slid slightly. Basketball cards, which represent the largest share of the index, were down 1.2% on average.
PWCC’s December Premier auction finished up over the weekend, and the results were actually pretty good.
The Michael Jordan rookie PSA 10 climbed to $360k, which beat out another Jordan from the “Aoki Collection” at Goldin, which sold for $312k.
The Tom Brady SP Authentic on Otis looks good with a $100k market cap compared to a $144k sale in the auction. We’ve added it as a buy recommendation at $19/sh, and I may pick up a few shares for my own portfolio.
The most intriguing result of the weekend was the sale of a 1985 Nike Promo Michael Jordan PSA 10 card for $66k. The most recent sale was one third that sum in November. PWCC certified it as an S eye appeal, which means it’s in the top 5% of all PSA 10s, but that’s still a significant premium.
Assets dropping on marketplaces
Just one IPO this week – a Michael Jordan 1986 – 87 Fleer SGC 10. Helpfully, one just sold at the PWCC auction above.
1986 Fleer #57 SGC 10 Michael Jordan
- Market Cap: $189,500
- Inferred Value: $180,000
- Date: 12/22/21 on Collectable
- Recommendation: [INSIDERS ONLY]
This week Goldin Auctions kicks off its December Elite auction with all the firepower you’d expect. It’s headlined by a number of blue chip LeBron James cards.
It also features three 2017 Panini Patrick Mahomes patch cards – two that are /25 (you can check them out here and here) and one /99. All these cards feature prominently in fractional marketplaces and serve as bellwethers for modern blue-chip assets.
It’s a sign of the times that the obligatory Michael Jordan 1986 Fleer PSA 10 has been relegated to lot 25 in the auction right after a Jerry Koosman rookie card.
The cards I’m most interested in:
- 1958 Alifabolaget Pele PSA 4. I’m super bullish on this card in all grades. It last sold for $66k in September. Look for it to double that.
- 1961 – 62 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain PSA 9. This card has shed 40% of its value since it hit highwater in April 2021 at $461k. Anything above $300k will be a strong sign for vintage blue chip basketball cards.
- 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7. This card has been all over the place between $198k and $350k this year. It’s well-centred for a PSA 7, and there’s a chance it could set an all-time high.
- 1999 Pokemon Charizard PSA 10. Not a sports card, but one to keep an eye on anyway. It’s been trending up and tends to correlate to sports cards. Anything touching $300k will be a good sign overall.
- 2000 UD SP Authentic Tom Brady PSA 10. Another prerequisite for any high-end auction, it performed admirably in the PWCC Premier last week hammering at $144k.
There are dozens more cards to watch for in the auction. Make sure to have a look.
That’s all for this week. Make sure you sign up to our Discord, where issue previews and in-depth valuations get kicked around.
For now though, I’d like to wish you all a very Merry Christmas, and to thank you for being a member of the Alts club. We’re growing really quickly and so much of that is down to word-of-mouth from people like you. So, thank you.