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We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.
More of the same as sports cards continued their slow steady decline toward the end of 2021. The asset class is now up just 10% on the year from a high of nearly 60% in the spring.
A quick look at CardLadder’s indices shows much the same. Pay particular attention to the bottom row, which shows high end cards *just* above water for the month while low-end and mid-tier cards are off. Will be interesting to see of top-tier cards get dragged down with the rest.
Table of Contents
Fractional secondary markets
The vast majority of cards on an asset-class basis were down last week with just soccer, tennis, and golf (representing 21 assets total) in the green. The Patrick Mahomes Laundry Tag card on Collectable was a notable decliner, and we added it as a buy recommendation at $2.35/sh.
OnlyAlt’s market trends guidance was off slightly as well with only two of their five sports indices up for the last seven days (was three of five last week).
That 90 day soccer index.
Robert Edwards wrapped up its Fall 2021 auction over the weekend with some instructive results.
TLDR; top tier blue chip assets did well. Everything else was mostly flat to down.
- 1986 Fleer basketball wax box – sold for $270k, which was down from $320k at Goldin end of October but up from the most recent prior sale in August ($184k). It’s trading at $205k on Collectable and $170k on Rally (both are Buy recommendations from us).
- Sticking with 1986 Fleer basketball, a complete set of PSA 10 (save MJ at PSA 9 and Moore at PSA 9) sold for $270k. Factoring in the added value of a PSA 10 Jordan relative to a PSA 9, that values the 1986-87 Fleer basketball complete set on Otis at $560k. It’s currently trading at $370k.
- A 1952 Topps Willie Mays PSA 8 hammered for $258k, up 25% from its most recent inferred value. It’s at $209k on Collectable.
- Wayne Gretzky’s recent slide was halted with a strong $156k bid for his 1979 O-Pee-Chee PSA 9 rookie card. It’s at $154k on Collectable.
- Pete Rose’s rookie card sold for an auction record $150k amid rising support for his election to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
- A PSA 8 graded copy of Mickey Mantle’s 1953 Topps card went for $105k. It’s at $104k on Collectable.
- Steph Curry’s 2009 Topps Chrome rookie sold for $46,800, which is around $10k over its current market cap on Otis.
- A 1910 E98 Ty Cobb PSA 9 sold for $33,600, which was well below its most recent sale. Market cap for the card on Rally is $75k.
Assets dropping on marketplaces
Three IPOs across as many sports this week, including our first fractional racing card.
Otto Graham 1950 Bowman PSA 9
- Market Cap: $42,850
- Inferred Value: $32,000
- Date: 12/7/21 on Collectable
- Recommended [Insiders Only]
Sandy Koufax 1956 Topps Gray Back PSA 9
- Market Cap: $33,750
- Inferred Value: $24,000
- Date: 12/9/21 on Collectable
- Recommended [Insiders Only]
Undervalued assets trading on marketplaces
Eight new sports cards trade this week either for the first time or for the first time in real time on Rally (say that three times fast). The LeBron refractor and Jackie Robinson rookie (on Rally) are a good pick up at current prices.
PWCC’s December monthly auction kicks off this week with a couple of notable lower-blue-chip cards on the block.
- 2000 Bowman Chrome Tom Brady PSA 10 (two lots)
- 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan BGS 9.5 (a pair are on collectable at $129,500)
Pretty quiet week otherwise, though Alt has another Liquid Auction kicking off Thursday. Assets TBC.
That’s all for this week. Make sure you sign up to our Discord, where issue previews and in-depth valuations get kicked around.