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Today is a deep dive into Cristiano Ronaldo:
- Cristiano Ronaldo 2014 Panini Prizm World Cup Signatures BGS 9 IPO’ing on Collectable
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Last week, I made a couple bone-headed copy-paste mistakes due to tiredness and haste. The valuations and verdicts weren’t affected, but it was sloppy, and you deserve better. Apologies.
Table of Contents
Cristiano Ronaldo 2014 Panini Prizm World Cup Signatures BGS 9
About the asset
This is a 1/1 Cristiano Ronaldo card form the 2014 World Cup. Ronaldo’s Portugal went out in the group stages that year (not good), and he only scored one goal in the tournament (against Ghana).
About the drop
This asset will drop on Collectable 3 October 2021 with a market cap of $255k and no retained equity.
Add event to calendar
About Cristiano Ronaldo
Let’s get it out of the way – I hate the guy. Hate hate hate him. He’s arrogant, self-important, and vain, even by footballing standards. He’s also been credibly accused of rape. He’s also been convicted of tax evasion and received a 16.8m Euro fine and suspended sentence.
So bear that in mind for all the below.
Along with Lionel Messi, Ronaldo is one of the two best footballers of his generation and in the top four of all time (Pele and Maradona).
He’s played for some of the biggest clubs in the world, most notably Manchester United, Real Madrid, and Juventus. He’s now back at ManU to see out his career (until he moves somewhere else).
He started his career with Sporting CP and rocketed through their junior ranks becoming the first player to ever play for the under-16, U17, U18, reserve team, and senior team in the same season.
He spent a year with Sporting CP then joined ManU for £12.24m, which was a record. His subsequent moves to Real Madrid and Juventus were records as well.
Over his nearly 20 year career, Ronaldo has scored 678 goals in 901 club appearances and a further 111 goals for the senior national team (a record).
A few other superlatives:
He’s received five Ballon d’Or awards (given to the best footballer in the world each year), which is a record for a European.
He holds the record for most goals in the
- Champions League (135)
- Euros qualification (31)
- Euros finals (14)
- World Cup (7)
- Single Champions League season (17)
He’s also won more than 30 trophies (winning a the league or a major tournament). There’s a very long wiki page about Cristiano Ronaldo’s achievements and records if you’d like to dig into it.
Recent sales history and Valuation
There are no public sales of this card, we don’t know what the consignor paid for it, and Collectable didn’t share their valuation methodology with me (usually they do if I ask).
Here are some data points that may help:
- A 2016 Panini Flawless Moments auto /15 card sold for $54k in June 2021
- A 2014 Panini Prizm Messi World Cup /25 card sold for $61k in March 2021.
- A 2004 Panini PSA 10 rookie sold for $160k in August 2021.
I think the first card is the best comp from those options. A 1/1 card should usually command around 7x what a /15 does, which gives us $378k.
That same methodology puts the Messi version of the 2014 Prizm set at around $750k. A Messi PSA 10 rookie is worth around 40% more than a Ronaldo rookie, so that *could* imply Ronaldo’s 1/1 here is worth around $530k.
Worth noting there are are nearly twice as many Ronaldo PSA 10 rookies as Messi, so that’s probably a factor – their market caps are nearly identical. Assuming that’s the reason for the Messi premium, and any 1/1 should be valued the same, and assuming 12x is an appropriate multiple to get from a /25 to a /1, then the value of the Ronaldo card is actually around $750k.
*Worth also noting Messi had an excellent tournament at the 2014 World Cup, making the finals and winning the golden ball. That’s a factor as well.
So we have three completely unsubstantiable valuations for this card:
- $378k
- $530k
- $750k
Averaging those out gets us to $550k.
Like all 1/1 pieces, though, it’s going to be worth what one guy wants to pay for it.
Inferred Value: $550k.
Verdict
Even though my valuation here is more than 2x the market cap, I don’t have enough confidence that I’m right. So it’s a pass.
