Welcome to Sports Cards Insider. We analyze IPOs and use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems.
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Todays deep-dive is on:
- Ted Williams 1939 Play Ball PSA 8 (IPO 5 March on Collectable)
- Patrick Mahomes 2017 Panini National Treasures BGS 8 (IPO 5 March on Rally)
- Kawhi Leonard 2012 National Treasures RPA BGS 9.5 (IPO 5 March on Otis)
Table of Contents
What is the Ted Williams 1939 Play Ball PSA 8?
This is the iconic rookie card for Ted Williams, produced just prior to the War. It’s one of 948 graded copies of this card. 88 are graded PSA 8, which has some agreeable symmetry.
The PSA 10 of the card has never changed hands (that we know about), and a PSA 9 was last sold in 2019, so this is the highest-graded version of the card we can reasonably hope to collect.
It IPOs on Collectable 5th March.
Cultural Relevance
With respect to Joe Dimaggio, the Ted Williams card is considered the key to this iconic pre-war set. Interestingly, the set was originally planned for 250 cards, but only 162 players were included.
Ted Williams is widely considered the greatest hitter who ever lived, Babe Ruth reportedly said, “Hiya, kid. You remind me a lot of myself. I love to hit. You’re one of the most natural ballplayers I’ve ever seen. And if my record is broken, I hope you’re the one to do it.”
At .344, Williams has the highest career batting average of any player who spent his entire career in the live-ball era following 1920.
His career was limited significantly due to military service, spending nearly five years with the Marine Corps during World War 2 and the Korean War. Had it not been for his service, he almost certainly would have exceeded 600 home runs and potentially matched Babe Ruth’s then-record of 714. He may have also set the career record for RBIs as well.
Wiliams used his Hall of Fame induction speech in 1966 to make and unprecedented call for recognition of the great Negro League players to have never played in the majors:
I’ve been a very lucky guy to have worn a baseball uniform, and I hope some day the names of Satchel Paige and Josh Gibson in some way can be added as a symbol of the great Negro players who are not here only because they weren’t given a chance.
Williams has a tunnel named for him in Boston and a parkway in California.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
This card hovered between [Insiders Only] and [Insiders Only] for most of 2020, which is when Collectable bought it. Just last week, though, it blew through roof at Heritage Auctions, selling for $56,400, including BP.
I actually think this card has a lot of room to run, despite the recent 2x. Have a look at Williams cards compared to some other comparable baseball players:
Every other player here has seen his cards [Insiders Only] over the last twelve months, while Teddy Ballgame has only 2x.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
Risk Profile
Recent Growth Trend
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
This card has lagged far behind other iconic vintage baseball cards, so I would definitely look for it to catch up quickly. There aren’t any PSA 8s up for auction at any of the usual auction houses at the minute, but Goldin does have a PSA 7 that ends in a few days. If that tops $18k or so, that’ll indicate this card is going to pop.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade weekly.
Platform Risk
Intangibles
Ted Williams was John Glenn’s wingman in Korea, and Glenn’s wife called him the most profane man she’d ever met. That’s awesome.
What is the Patrick Mahomes 2017 Panini National Treasures BGS 8?
This is a limited run /5 autographed card containing a patch of game-worn uniform. At BGS 8, it’s actually the lowest-graded version of the Patrick Mahomes National Treasures Black cards (black are /5, the normal RPA cards are /99).
There are three others at BGS 9.0 and I believe one graded SGC 8.5, but they don’t use the same terminology, so it’s difficult to tell for sure. There are none with PSA. Either way, I couldn’t find any others rated 8.0 or lower.
It IPOs on Rally 5th March.
Cultural Relevance
Widely considered to be Tom Brady’s successor, Mahomes faced a bit of a setback recently, when his offensive line let him down in the Super Bowl.
At age 25, he’s been very very good in his short career:
- Super Bowl champion and MVP
- League MVP
- Sports Illustrated sportsperson of the year
- NFL passing touchdowns leader
- NCAA single-game passing yards record with 734 (tie)
- NCAA single-game total offense with 819
He’s most commonly compared to Tom Brady, but he’s got some work to do to catch up to Brady in terms of both statistics and popularity.
When compared to younger quarterbacks, though, it’s a different story. Mahomes is THE most relevant quarterback of his generation, and it’s not even close.
Inferred Value – [Insiders Only]
As a limited run card, we’re working with thin trading history on this card. That said, we do have two good comps for this one:
- 31st January 2021: BGS 9 sold for $840k
- 1st November 2020: BGS 9 sold for [Insiders Only]
You can typically apply a 2.5 multiple to a BGS 9 relative to a BGS 8, so [Insiders Only].
So we’re in the right ballpark anyway.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
The football cards subcategory has returned [Insiders Only] ROI so far across the entire portfolio
Risk Profile
Standard deviation for all NBA basketball transactions has been [Insiders Only], which is [Insiders Only]. Lower is better.
Recent Growth Trend
Based on the two Goldin auctions, this card has appreciated over [Insiders Only] in the last several months.
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
While Mahomes obviously suffered a bit of a setback this year, he’s well on his way to being the best quarterback of his generation. He has a lot of room to run.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade quarterly.
Platform Risk
Rally is [Insiders Only] transparent and well-capitalised.
Intangibles
He could be the best quarterback of all time.
What is the Kawhi Leonard 2012 National Treasures RPA BGS 9.5?
Yet another special insert card!
Again from Panini, this is a basketball National Treasures rookie patch autograph with a /199 limited print run. It’s one of 54 BGS 9.5s in the population report, though there are a total of 231 of these cards listed along with a further couple dozen at PSA. This pop report is pretty unreliable.
It IPOs on Otis 5th March.
Cultural Relevance
Kawhi Leonard is considered one of the top five players in the NBA and is probably the best two-way player in the league.
Watch him dominate on both sides of the ball.
Playing for the Spurs and Raptors, he’s got quite a resume:
- Two NBA championships with two teams
- Two finals MVP awards
- Four All-star appearances
Culturally, he’s comparably popular to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic
Though he lags far behind Lebron James.
Inferred Value – $50,108
This card sold at auction on eBay pretty recently, so we have an easy comp. His card had been subject to the wider modern NBA downturn prior to this and the next most recent sale, but his blue-chipness seems to have broken him out of it.
It’s worth comparing this card to another Otis IPO this week, Anthony Davis’s version of the same card. Kawhi consistently commands around [Insiders Only] to AD.
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 57.2% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Subcategory Strength
The basketball cards subcategory has returned [Insiders Only] ROI so far across the entire portfolio
Risk Profile
Standard deviation for all NBA basketball transactions has been [Insiders Only], which is relatively [Insiders Only]. Lower is better.
Recent Growth Trend
This card has appreciated around [Insiders Only] in the last twelve months.
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
Kawhi seems to have survived the moden NBA card massacre, which is good news for his cards.
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 30 day lockup period then will trade daily
Platform Risk
Otis is [Insiders Only] transparent and well-capitalised.
Intangibles
Sorry not much here. He’s a very good basketball player.
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