Welcome to the WC, wherein you’re trapped in my mind for eight to ten minutes weekly.
What a difference a week makes. Last Wednesday, Former President Trump had all the momentum after his near-death experience and a rocking national convention.
A week ago, most prediction markets put a Trump victory at about 70%. After the Biden/Harris hot swap, that’s dropped to 55%, more or less.
So, it’s time to see how a Harris administration could affect alternative investing over the next several years.
As ever, politicians campaign in poetry and govern in prose, so there’s no guarantee all (or any) of these positions will happen, but it’s the best we have for now.
I’m going to look at:
- Macro Economy
- Venture capital and startups
- Real estate
- Private equity and private credit
- Wine, spirits, and art
Before diving into specific sectors, let’s review Harris’s likely policy priorities:
Immigration policies under a Harris administration would likely focus on creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and protecting DACA recipients. According to a New York Times article, Harris has pledged to “reinstate DACA and expand it” Source: New York Times. This approach could significantly impact the labor market, potentially increasing the workforce in various sectors and driving economic growth.
On the trade front, Harris has advocated for fair trade practices and shown a willingness to renegotiate trade agreements. In an interview with the Atlantic Council, she emphasized the need to “engage in trade policy that is in the best interest of American workers” Source: Atlantic Council. This stance could lead to shifts in global supply chains and potentially create new opportunities for domestic manufacturers.
Energy and climate change are central to Harris’s economic vision. According to Reuters, Harris supports the Green New Deal framework and has set a goal for the U.S. to achieve a carbon-neutral electricity grid by 2030 Source: Reuters. This push towards a green economy could reshape entire industries and create new investment opportunities in sustainable technologies and infrastructure.
In education, Harris has proposed increased funding for public education, support for free community college, and an emphasis on STEM education. The Washington Post reports that she has called for federal investment to close the teacher pay gap Source: Washington Post. These policies could lead to a more skilled workforce and potentially drive innovation across various sectors.
Healthcare is another key focus area for Harris. She supports expanding the Affordable Care Act, lowering prescription drug costs, and increasing access to mental health services. According to CNBC, Harris has proposed allowing the government to set drug prices Source: CNBC. These policies could have far-reaching effects on the healthcare industry, potentially creating opportunities in areas like telemedicine and mental health technology.
While the presidency does not directly control interest rates, Harris’s economic policies may influence Federal Reserve decisions. Bloomberg’s analysis suggests that her focus on job creation and economic growth could impact monetary policy decisions Source: Bloomberg.
In the realm of artificial intelligence, Harris supports innovation coupled with robust regulation to ensure ethical development and deployment. In a speech at the National Press Club, she emphasized the need for “guardrails” to protect against the potential harms of AI Source: National Press Club. This balanced approach could shape the future of AI applications across industries, from healthcare to finance.
As we jump into specific sectors, remember that these policy priorities will likely interact in complex ways, creating both challenges and opportunities for investors.
Table of Contents
Macro Economy
Under a Harris administration, the macro economy could see significant shifts driven by climate change policies, technological advancements, and social equity initiatives.
The transition to a green economy would likely accelerate. This could lead to substantial growth in renewable energy sectors while potentially challenging traditional fossil fuel industries. Investors might consider:
Clean Energy ETFs: Funds focusing on renewable energy companies
Electric Vehicle Manufacturers: Companies leading the transition to electric transportation
Carbon Capture Technologies: Firms developing CO2 reduction solutions
Harris’s stance on AI and technological advancement could reshape various industries. Potential investment areas include:
AI and Machine Learning ETFs: Funds concentrating on companies at the forefront of AI technology
- Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ)
- ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ)
Cybersecurity Firms: Companies providing AI-driven security solutions
Ethical AI Consultancies: Firms specializing in responsible AI implementation
The proposed immigration reforms could have far-reaching effects on the labor market. This might benefit:
Workforce Management Software: Companies providing solutions for diverse workforce management
Language Learning Apps: Platforms facilitating integration of immigrant workers
Consumer Goods Companies: Firms potentially seeing increased demand due to a larger consumer base
Would You Like to Know More?
”The New Climate War” by Michael E. Mann
”AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order” by Kai-Fu Lee
”Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital” by Kimberly Clausing
”The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy” by Mariana Mazzucato
Venture capital and startups
A Harris administration could significantly influence the startup ecosystem, particularly in sectors aligned with her policy priorities.
The strong focus on climate action could spark a surge in cleantech startups, with increased funding for renewable energy research and development. This could create opportunities in the following ways:
Solar Technology Innovators: Companies developing next-gen solar solutions
Energy Storage Startups: Firms working on advanced battery technologies
Sustainable Transportation Solutions: Companies revolutionizing eco-friendly mobility
Harris’s support for responsible AI development could foster growth in AI startups. Her emphasis on ethical AI and robust regulation might particularly benefit:
Ethical AI Startups: Companies focusing on responsible AI development
AI in Healthcare Ventures: Startups applying AI to medical diagnostics and treatment
AI-Driven Cybersecurity Startups: Ventures using AI to enhance digital security
The focus on healthcare accessibility could boost health tech startups. With support for telemedicine and digital health solutions, we might see growth in:
Telemedicine Platforms: Companies providing remote healthcare solutions
Personalized Medicine Startups: Firms developing tailored medical treatments
Mental Health Tech Ventures: Startups offering digital mental health support
Would You Like to Know More?
”Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future” by Peter Thiel
Real estate
The real estate sector could see significant shifts under a Harris administration, driven by climate policies, affordable housing initiatives, and immigration reform.
Harris’s climate agenda would likely accelerate the adoption of green building practices. This could lead to growth in:
Green Building Materials Manufacturers: Companies producing sustainable construction materials
Smart Home Technology Providers: Firms developing energy-efficient home systems
Green Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Trusts focusing on sustainable properties
The focus on social equity could drive significant investment in affordable housing. This might create opportunities in:
Affordable Housing Developers: Companies specializing in low-income housing projects
Modular Home Manufacturers: Firms producing cost-effective, quick-build housing solutions
Community Development Financial Institutions: Organizations providing financing for community development projects
Would You Like to Know More?
”Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City” by Matthew Desmond
”The New Geography of Jobs” by Enrico Moretti
”The Smart Enough City: Putting Technology in Its Place to Reclaim Our Urban Future” by Ben Green
Private equity and private credit
The private equity and credit markets could see significant shifts under a Harris administration, particularly in sectors aligned with her policy priorities.
Harris’s climate agenda could create numerous opportunities for PE firms in the clean energy and sustainability sectors:
Renewable Energy Project Developers: Firms specializing in large-scale clean energy installations
Circular Economy Companies: Businesses focusing on sustainable resource use and waste reduction
Green Technology Innovators: Firms developing cutting-edge sustainable solutions
The focus on healthcare accessibility could drive investment in this sector:
Healthcare Technology Companies: Firms developing innovative medical technologies
Specialty Pharmaceutical Manufacturers: Companies focusing on niche medical treatments
Health Data Analytics Firms: Companies leveraging big data for healthcare insights
Would You Like to Know More?
”The Future of Private Equity: Beyond the Mega Deal” by Mark Florman, et al.
”The Masters of Private Equity and Venture Capital” by Robert Finkel and David Greising
”Private Equity 4.0: Reinventing Value Creation” by Benoit Leleux, et al.
Wine, spirits, and art
The luxury goods and cultural sectors could see interesting shifts under a Harris administration, influenced by trade policies, sustainability initiatives, and social equity focus.
Harris’s approach to international trade could impact the wine and spirits industry:
Domestic Wineries: U.S. wine producers poised for growth under potential “Buy American” policies
Craft Distilleries: Local spirits makers benefiting from a domestic focus
Wine and Spirits E-commerce Platforms: Companies facilitating direct-to-consumer sales
The push for sustainability could boost eco-friendly practices in the wine industry:
Organic Vineyards: Wineries committed to sustainable practices
Eco-friendly Packaging Companies: Firms developing sustainable bottling solutions
AgTech for Viticulture: Companies offering technology for precision viticulture
Harris’s focus on social equity could influence the art market:
Online Art Marketplaces: Platforms showcasing diverse artists
Art Education Technology: Companies developing inclusive art education tools
Museum Technology Providers: Firms creating interactive and accessible museum experiences
Would You Like to Know More?
”Wine and Economics: Transacting the Elixir of Life” by Denton Marks
”Creating Value in the Arts: An Economic Approach” by Arjo Klamer
That’s all for this week; I hope you enjoyed it.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- Our friends at First National Realty Partners sponsored this issue.
