Trading Update – First Edition Charizard Holo

Welcome to the latest issue of Trading Updates / Game Trading Cards Insider – FREE VERSION.

Today we have an update on the First Edition Charizard Holo that is opening for trading on Rally Road on Thursday, July 8th.

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First Edition Charizard Holo

What is the Asset?

I originally wrote about this back when it IPO’d in March:

“The first English edition of the Pokemon Trading Card Game (TCG) was released in January, 1999 and is the most valuable of all the sets. There are 102 cards in the set and 16 of them are the rarer, more valuable Holos. Of those, the Charizard Holo is far and away the most coveted and valuable.

There have been 121 total Charizard 1st edition Holos graded PSA 10.”

Rally originally purchased it for $300,000 on January 17th.

What is the current status of the Asset?

This originally IPO’d on March 26th with 35,000 shares at $10 each for a total valuation of $350,000. It funded in around twelve hours. It will be open for trading for the first time from 9:30 AM – 4 PM EST on Thursday, July 8th.

Inferred Valuation / Target Share Price

[Detailed Valuation for Insiders Only]

Category Strength

The Game Trading cards category posted a -27% ROI in Q2 2021.

Subcategory Strength

[Insiders Only]

Past Asset Growth

[Insiders Only]

Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts

At some point the drop will flatten out but I don’t know when that will be. This is what I wrote when it IPO’d:

“There are over a hundred copies floating around out there (plus all of the unopened boxes and ungraded ones) so there’s not a huge scarcity. This IPO is a good deal compared to the current value, but don’t expect it to 5x in the next year again. We might even see a short-term fall if the market gets saturated.”

I was wrong that the IPO was a good deal but right about the short-term fall — the supply has just outstripped the falling demand. It’s going to take a big auction sale to turn it around.

Final Thoughts

[Full evaluation for Insiders Only]

It was worth around $40K 18 months ago and we very well might be heading back that way – it’s too risky right now to buy.

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Author

Adam Katz

Adam Katz

Adam is a lawyer and real estate investor with a finance background. His diverse job experience includes stints in a MLB front office, a major global law firm and the real estate investment fund he co-founded. He is bringing his well-honed research and valuation skills to the world of fractional investing. Born and raised in San Francisco, he currently lives in Brooklyn with his dog, a pit bull mix named Beaux.

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