Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: South Korea’s economy grew only 0.1% in Q3
- Real Estate: US home sales fell to a 14-year low
- Startups: Finix raised $75 million, quadrupling revenue
- Private Credit: PE investments in insurance surged 42%
- Crypto: Retail demand for Bitcoin ETFs reached $63.3 billion
- NFTs: Solana’s Froganas collection saw a 444% rise in sales
- Art: Egon Schiele’s death mask sold for $24,600
- Vintage Autos: A WWII Mercedes is set to sell for £770,000
- Coins: A 1904 Liberty Head Eagle sold for $96,000
- Farmland: Floods ruined 34,000 hectares of Afghan farmland
- Luxury: Prada joined Axiom Space to design a spacesuit
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Champagne uses cork closures
- Film & Music: Spotify’s audiobooks have hurt music royalties
- Precious Metals: China’s metals ore imports fell 22.4%
- Collectibles: Caitlin Clark collector items sold out in minutes
- Websites: Rocket.com sold for $14 million
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- UBS upgraded global equities to “attractive,” citing resilient US growth and AI gains.
- IMF raised the US growth forecast to 2.8% this year, leading the G7.
- Citi increased its gold price forecast to $2,800 during Fed cuts and labor risks.
- Brazil set plans to measure non-inflationary growth for sustainable expansion.
- Bank of Canada cut its rate to 3.75%, following inflation declines.
- The US showed strong growth for a second straight quarter.
Bearish News
- Unemployment claims in mid-October hit their highest since 2021.
- South Korea’s economy grew only 0.1% in Q3 as exports dropped.
- IMF warned of low-growth risks and global dissatisfaction.
- Russia raised its rate to 21% to control inflation.
- Fed’s Beige Book noted mixed consumer spending and economic uncertainty.
- Chinese consumer spending fell, with record-high savings hurting growth.
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So even affordability can hurt the economy?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- Pittsburgh has sustained its affordability with a $245,000 median list price.
- CoStar Group’s Q3 revenue grew 11%, marking 54 quarters of double-digit growth.
- Fixer-uppers have gained popularity as buyers sought affordable market entry points.
Bearish News
- US home sales fell to a 14-year low in September, with median prices at $404,500.
- Freddie Mac’s index showed 6.5% growth in 2023, above the 4.4% long-term average.
- Mortgage rates rose for four weeks, erasing earlier relief from potential Fed cuts.
- In 2023, 31.3% of US households were cost-burdened, spending over 30% on housing.
- Demand for distressed properties dropped for a second consecutive quarter.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Fixer-uppers are in, but distressed is out.
Startups
Bullish News
- General Catalyst raised $8 billion to support startups in the US, Europe, and India.
- Andreessen Horowitz provided Nvidia H100 GPUs to AI portfolio firms via its Oxygen program.
- Finix raised $75 million, challenging Stripe and quadrupling revenue.
- French platform Upflow expanded to manage both accounts receivable and payments.
- Lithuanian marketplace Vinted raised €340 million at a €5 billion valuation, tripling its GMV.
Bearish News
- Funding for Southeast Asian startups fell below $1 billion in Q3 2024.
- Jellysmack is laying off staff as it scales back its creator program.
How to invest in startups right now:
Bad time to be in a Southeast Asian startup.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Sixth Street Partners invested $500 million in Merchant Investment Management in a $750 million round.
- iCapital is raising $200 million for private credit with Bain, Audax, and Charlesbank.
- HPS Investment Partners’ CEO has openly considered a sale to BlackRock.
- LCM Partners has initiated plans to raise €6 billion for a private debt fund.
- Wendel acquired Monroe Capital for $1.13 billion.
- PE-owned firms continued to set the pace in job creation, outpacing public peers.
Bearish News
- PE metals and mining deal values dropped over 50% in early 2024.
- Banks edged out private credit funds to finance Blackstone’s AirTrunk buyout.
- Uganda’s EACOP pipeline faced tough debt negotiations as partners added cash.
- PE investments in insurance surged 42% in early 2024 despite a global PE decline.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Who’s applying to PE-owned firms?
Crypto
Bullish News
- Retail demand for Bitcoin ETFs reached $63.3 billion, covering 5.2% of Bitcoin’s supply.
- Solana outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum, boosted by AI memecoin activity.
- Variational, on Arbitrum, raised $10.3 million from Bain and Coinbase Ventures.
- Dutch tax authority requested public input on crypto reporting for transaction data.
- Elmnts launched tokenized mineral royalties on Solana’s beta platform.
- Algorand’s monthly active users grew nearly 34%, reaching a yearly high.
- An investigation revealed that only about 10% of John Deaton’s campaign funding came from crypto sources.
Bearish News
- Manhattan prosecutors investigated Tether for money laundering and sanctions violations.
- Hackers stole $20 million from a US-linked crypto wallet holding Bitfinex funds.
- Over 33,000 South Korean investors lost access to $13 million due to exchange closures.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Solana is on the up & up!
NFTs
Bullish News
- NFT sales rose 20.58% to $91 million this week.
- Vantard Meme Index Fund’s $500,000 pre-seed allocation sold out in minutes.
- NFT Platform Market is projected to grow at a 15.6% CAGR by 2031.
- Solana’s Froganas collection saw a 444% sales increase, reaching $2.5 million.
- TON network NFT traders jumped from 200,000 in July to over 1 million by September.
Bearish News
- North Korea’s Lazarus Group exploited a Chrome flaw to launch fake NFT game “DeTankZone.”
- Polymarket generated only $27,000 in transaction fees for Polygon in 2024.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
DeTankZone was fake? Then what was I playing…
Artwork
Bullish News
- Christie’s 20th/21st Century Evening Sale in London surged 83% to £81.98 million.
- Art Basel and UBS found steady median art spending at $50,000.
- Christie’s auction of Ed Ruscha’s Standard Station is expected to reach $50 million.
- Sotheby’s announced plans to sell Ai-Da robot’s artwork, estimated at up to $195,000.
- Egon Schiele’s death mask sold for £19,000 ($24,600), nearly ten times its estimate.
- Female artists’ share in high-net-worth collections reached 44%, a seven-year high.
Bearish News
- The global art market showed more sellers than buyers per Art Basel and UBS.
- Christie’s CEO downplayed the London-Paris rivalry, calling it a “non-troversy.”
- High-net-worth individual art spending fell 32% in 2023.
- Many museums faced budget challenges, exploring creative acquisition methods.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Where are high-net-worth individuals spending their money?
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Collector car market shifted to younger buyers, valuing McLaren F1, Ferrari F50, and Porsche 911 GT1.
- A restored 1934 Mercedes-Benz 500 K Roadster from WWII is expected to fetch £770,000 at auction.
- RM Sotheby’s is set to auction a junkyard full of classic cars worth millions.
- A seven-year restored Mercedes 500K may become Bring A Trailer’s priciest car.
- Rudi Klein’s vintage Mercedes, Lamborghini, and Porsche collection in South LA is set to go up for auction.
Bearish News
- Experts warned that low-quality copycat parts risk damaging classic vehicles and raising repair costs.
- Radford Motors, co-founded by Jenson Button, filed for bankruptcy.
- Congress urged Stellantis to honor UAW investment promises as strike tensions escalated.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Beware of low-quality copycat parts.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- A group of metal detectorists discovered an 11th-century coin hoard valued at £4.3 million.
- A 1904 Liberty Head Eagle PCGS PR65+CAM sold for $96,000 at a Stack’s Bowers Galleries auction.
- Certain 1982 Roosevelt dimes without a mint mark could be worth as much as $2,000 according to experts.
- An extremely rare silver denarius of Roman Emperor Carausius is expected to fetch up to £8,000 at auction.
- A 1902-O Barber quarter dollar graded MS-66+ by PCGS realized $10,200 at Stack’s Bowers’ Rarities Night.
Bearish News
- Oklahoma City police seek three suspects who concealed and fled with high-value gold coins from a local business.
- A Bay City coin store owner was charged with defrauding customers and gambling away over $5 million at Soaring Eagle Casino.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Time to dump out the piggy bank. One of these dimes has to be missing a mint mark.
Farmland
Bullish News
- The Farmers for Soil Health program opened for enrollment, targeting 30 million acres of cover crops by 2030.
- Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to reach close to 25% planted overall in a few days, with planting accelerating to 15% per week.
- The Farmland Access Hub received $750,000 in federal funding to improve farmland access for farmers in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.
- 30,200 acres more farmland was marketed in Great Britain by the end of Q3 2024 compared to the same period last year, a 21% increase.
- The Farm Service Agency updated its acreage reporting software to accommodate vertical farming operations.
- Satori, Vermont’s largest indoor cannabis cultivator, is growing thousands of plants under LED lighting using AI software.
Bearish News
- The latest Missouri Farmland Values Opinion Survey hints at slower growth in Show-Me State farmland values.
- The wheat market experienced weakness in October, with Minneapolis December futures dipping as low as $6.
- Over the past five years, over 140,000 American farms have tilled for the last time.
- Wildfire danger delayed harvest in eastern Nebraska, with farmers shutting down combines on more “wildfire danger” days than rain days.
- Floods have destroyed 34,000 hectares of Afghan farmland, severely impacting farmers’ livelihoods.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Untilled next time, American farms.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Prada partnered with aerospace leader Axiom Space to create a spacesuit for astronauts to wear during the Artemis III lunar mission in 2026.
- Jaeger-LeCoultre announced the support of 23 emerging artisan duos participating in guided apprenticeships until March 2025.
- Hermès defied wider luxury industry trends, reporting a Q3 consolidated revenue increase of 10% year over year to about $4 billion.
- London’s luxury market is set to grow, with 80% of high-net-worth individuals expecting stable or increasing disposable income in 2024.
Bearish News
- Luxury brands are facing a self-inflicted crisis due to poor storytelling, lack of client-centric value, and failure to engage Gen Z.
- China’s booming grey markets for luxury goods are adding to the woes of luxury brands.
- A US judge blocked the effort to create an “American LVMH” by merging Tapestry and Capri.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
That’s whats stopping me from luxury purchases: poor storytelling.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Despite efforts to raise alcohol taxes in several states, the alcohol industry has successfully thwarted tax increases at virtually every turn.
- Matthew and Camila McConaughey’s Pantalones Organic Tequila celebrated its first anniversary and is now available nationwide in the US.
- The Ohio Liquor Autumn 2024 Bottle Lottery offered the chance to win rare spirits like Pappy Van Winkle, with bottles ranging from $130 to $450.
Bearish News
- Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits, the largest US wine distributor, laid off hundreds of employees across the country.
- Numerous Champagne producers have begun eschewing secondary fermentation and replacing them with cork closures.
- Young adults find restaurant wine lists boring and unappealing compared to the colorful photos and descriptions of cocktails and craft beers.
- American whiskey sector volumes dipped by 1% in 2023, with the decline driven almost entirely by the standard-and-below segment.
- Rémy Cointreau‘s H1 sales fell by 15.9% to €533.7 million.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Any Pappy Van Winkle winners?
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Global songwriter royalty collections from digital sources grew 9.6% to $5 billion in 2023.
- Sony Music acquired fan engagement apps Songwhip and Fansifter, showcasing them at its Immersive Tech Day in London.
- Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” was re-released in Spanish using AI technology.
- Digital marketing firm The Trenches signed an exclusive deal with UMG’s Republic Corps Collective.
Bearish News
- Blackstone’s Hipgnosis acquisition backed a $1.47 billion securitization just three months after the $1.6 billion deal.
- Spotify’s audiobook bundle has reduced music royalties, leading to pushback from the music industry and questions from authors.
- Thousands of artists signed a statement opposing AI training on their works without a license.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Can’t wait to hear AI Christmas music this year!
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Gold hit an all-time peak as safe-haven demand, spurred by US election uncertainties and the Middle East war.
- Russia spoke with other BRICS members about creating an international precious metals exchange.
Bearish News
- China’s precious metals ore imports fell 22.4% in September to 201,004.9 metric tons due to a proposed rule change.
- Anglo American’s Q3 copper output fell 13% and diamond output decreased 25%.
- The raw materials bill for the average EV is down to $537 compared to $1,342 in August 2023, a 60% drop.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Gold is going for gold.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Panini’s latest release of Caitlin Clark autographed items, ranging from $450 to $1,000 each, sold out in minutes.
- Shohei Ohtani’s 50/50 home run ball sold for $4,392,000 at Goldin Auctions, setting a record for the most paid-for sports ball.
- Nike re-released the Air Jordan 4 sneakers in a new orchid colorway for $215 to celebrate the shoes’ 35th anniversary.
- About 500 of the rarest comics from Christine Farrell’s legendary collection, believed to be worth up to $7 million, are up for sale at Heritage Auctions.
Bearish News
- Auction sales at major houses like Christie’s and Sotheby’s dropped by 26% in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year.
- Balenciaga faced backlash over its £1,460 “reptile trainers” with a “worn-out effect” and “elongated toe”.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Who managed to snag a Caitlin Clark autographed item?
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Rocket.com sold for $14 million.
- Pulse.co sold for $50,000 and NetGuard.com for $27,000 in a day that saw $348,996 in tracked domain sales.
- The JioHotstar domain was unexpectedly changed to feature a UAE siblings’ charity message, replacing the developer’s previous demand from Reliance.
Bearish News
- A US Senator questioned domain registrars over their role in facilitating Russian disinformation campaigns.
- An Iranian hacking group has reportedly been actively scouting US election-related websites and media outlets.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Rocket.com sells for $14 million in 2024—something to remember in case I ever get a time machine.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Sensate.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.