Warren Spahn & Triple Logoman on Collectable

Welcome to Sports Cards Insider for January 25th, 2022 – FREE Version. Each week we give you the scoop on undervalued, mispriced and hidden gems in Alternative Investing.

As a reminder, here’s my view on sports cards sectors for 2022:

-All soccer especially vintage
-Vintage basketball
-Vintage football
-Hockey except for ultra blue chip
-Golf
-Tennis
-Modern basketball

Sports Cards in 2022

Sports cards continue to look for a bottom in fractional markets as they slide negative for the first time in a year.

All stats come from assets trading on secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

Last Week in Sports Cards

Fractional secondary markets

A week after tier-one sports showed some leadership with positive returns, all three (four) go negative. Boxing and soccer lead the way.

All stats come from assets trading on the secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

Five of six categories were up on last week’s Alt index with only soccer showing a slight decline .

Indices taken from OnlyAlts

Month on month results from CardLadder continue to trend positive with football showing the biggest gains — probably due to the NFT playoffs.

Courtesy CardLadder. These are monthly returns.

Auctions

Pele rookie on PWCC

PWCC’s Premier Auction ended over the weekend with a number of useful results. Results were mostly flat to down overall. These are the lots were were keeping a close eye on:

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  • PWCC and Goldin have nearly identical 2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady BGS 8 cards on offer. PWCC’s copy, which ends sooner, is up to $650k while Goldin’s trails slightly at $540k. There’s a BGS 8.5 graded copy at Collectable with a market cap of $1.8m, down from an IPO of over $2.1m.
  • Keep an eye on the 2009 Topps Chrome Stephen Curry refractor. Curry cards are up 40% over the last couple of months. CardLadder values it at $156k, and it’s already up to $180k at auction.
  • There’s a slightly faded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7 that’s currently set at $180k. Collectable is IPO’ing a nicer PSA 7 this week for $299k.
  • One more Pele then no more. Keep an eye on this 1958 Alifabolaget SGC 7.5 Pele rookie. This exact card sold for $145k at Goldin in April 2021. It’s up to $140k now. It will probably go for somewhere between $150k and $250k; where exactly it ends up could tell us a lot about both the market for Pele and the relative value of SGC to PSA for vintage soccer.

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The Brady rookie finished up at $1.3m, which was right in line with expectations. Another copy is at Goldin ending soon, so keep an eye on that.

Curry finished up at $228k, which was a significant gain over previous results. Curry continues to outperform.

The slightly faded Mantle finished up at $336k, which makes the recent IPO on Collectable look very good value.

The Pele rookie sold for smack in the middle of our estimates at $216k. The market for Pele (and vintage soccer) looks strong.

This Week

Assets dropping on marketplaces

Two IPOs this week, both from Collectable.

Spahn set pitching records well into his 40s.

1948 Leaf #32 PSA 9 Warren Spahn

  • Market Cap: $80k
  • Inferred Value: $105k
  • Date: 1/25/22 on Collectable
  • Our View: [Insiders Only]

Duncan | Yao | Dirk 2006-’07 Exquisite Triple Logoman 1/1

  • Market Cap: $163,500
  • Inferred Value: $150k
  • Date: 1/26/22 on Collectable
  • Our View: [Insiders Only]

Auctions

OnlyAlt’s got another liquid auction going on this week, and it the quality and quantity of cards continues to increase. It’s like that many cards will finish in the mid- to high-five figures, and one or two may breach $100k. The source of some of these cards continues to be less-than-transparent, unfortunately, as several of them appear to have been purchased off eBay within the last month or two.

The problem with this:

  • Alt uses the recent eBay sale to set the value on the card
  • If it’s Alt themselves buying the cards, it’s probably not a true comp – the price is inflated

To be clear, I don’t know if it is Alt making the purchases, but it’s possible.

Wilt Chamberlain rookie at Heritage

Two more massive auctions right now at Heritage (ends in two days), Goldin (ends in 11 days). These are the lots we’re watching.

Heritage’s Winter Sports Card Auction. Here’s what we continue to keep an eye on:

Two days to go…

Moving on to Goldin’s Winter Elite auction, which we covered in depth last week.

Jesse Owens on sale at Goldin

The most notable lots:

  • 1937 Ogden’s Limited Jesse Owens. Goldin sold an identical copy for $32k just a couple of weeks ago, another for $13k in May 2021, and another in March 2021 for $39,600. That’s fully half the eight PSA 9s in circulation sold via one auction house in the last ten months. Update: $12,600.
  • The hobby’s highest-graded set of 1980-81 Topps basketball cards (Bird, Johnson rookie) is available for the first time in forever. It comes with loads of add-ons including an uncut sheet of cards, team pin-ups, and an unopened wax pack. Someone is unloading a lifetime’s passion project. This should go for well over $1m. Update: $660k.
  • All I could find out (after an embarrassing amount of time spent researching it, and it was in the lot listing anyway) about the 1957 Balas Futebol Pele is that it’s very rare. There’s one copy with SGC and one other with PSA and that’s it. Similar-ish cards have gone for around $200k. Update: $246k.

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Author

Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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