Why this Heritage auction could tell us how Video Games will trade in 2022

Welcome to Video Games Insider for January 12th, 2022 – FREE version.

We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.

Video Games in 2022

All video games trading on fractional secondary markets Rally and Otis

Video games start 2022 on the right foot as they halt a two-month slide. They may have found a bottom.

Last week’s performance

Fractional secondary markets

Last week’s turnaround was led by Gameboy games, which were up nearly 25% on average. The biggest decline was from the sole Playstation game – Grand Theft Auto – which traded down for the second week in a row on Rally. It was as high as $13/sh and finished the week at $5/sh. It’s up 13% at the time of writing (1/11/22).

All stats come from assets trading on the secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally.

At Auction

Not much of interest last week, though there’s an ongoing auction at Heritage we’ll discuss below.

This Week

SMB 64 is the best-selling N64 game of all time with >12m copies sold

Fortnite 2017 PS4 WATA 9.8 A+

  • Market Cap: $16k
  • Inferred Value: $11k
  • Platform: Rally
  • Date: 1/12/21
  • Recommendation: [INSIDERS ONLY]

Secondary markets

Nothing new this week, sorry.

At Auction

This week continues the Heritage January Signature Games auction.

These are the games we’re watching:

John Madden Football WATA 9.2 A+ for Sega Genesis – this was the first console game featuring the recently late coaching and announcing legend. At the time of writing (1/4/22), it’s already up to $63k, surely bolstered by the man’s recent passing. This specific cartridge is from the offices of John Madden himself. Update – at $69k with 17 days to go

RIP John Madden

Super Mario Bros. WATA 9.8 A+ (last production run). If this beats $200k, it’ll indicate we’ve hit a bottom for Blue Chip NES games. Was at $33,600 last week and still is.

Nintendo World Championships 1990 WATA 6.0 Cart only. A WATA 6.5 sold for $85k in late October 2021. Anything above $50k will be a positive move forward. Wherever it lands, the WATA 8.5 version at Otis should be valued at around 10x the WATA 6.0 here. The cartridge and competition themselves have a fascinating backstory with only 116 known to exist. At $37,200, up from $32,400 last week.

Ugly but valuable

Halo: Combat Evolved NFR WATA 9.8 A+. This Not for Resale (NFR) version, which is around 3.5x more valuable than the standard copy of this game, is the highest-graded copy I’ve seen. Otis bought a slightly inferior WATA 9.8 A for $84k end of October 2021, and it’s not yet fully funded on their platform. Anything over $100k for this sale should see their copy safely home. Currently at $26,400 up slightly from last week.

The Legend of Zelda WATA 9.2 A (Rev-A, Round SOQ, early/third production). An identical copy (as far as I can tell) sold for $90k in early December, which was a huge disappointment based on recent comparable sales. It implied a value of only around $110k for the copy on Rally, which is currently trading at $170k at the time of writing (again, 1/4/22). So this game’s milestones to beat are:

  • $90k to indicate the market’s not collapsed any further
  • $140k to justify the current market cap for the copy on Rally

Currently at $48k up significantly from last week ($16,200).

I also mentioned the WATA 9.4 A++ copy of Super Mario 64, because it’s nearly a direct comp for last week’s IPO on Rally. It needs to hit $80k to justify the valuation of the IPO, but we reckon it’ll finish closer to $30k. Fingers crossed we’re wrong. It’s currently at $12,600 up from $7,500 last week.

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Author

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Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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