Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe 👋
This is everything you need to stay up to date in alternatives.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Argentina eliminated its fiscal deficit
- Real Estate: Office CMBS delinquency rates hit 11%
- Startups: Nvidia acquired Run:ai for $700 million
- Private Equity: US PE deal value reached $838.5 billion
- Crypto: The IRS gave temporary relief on crypto tax reporting
- NFTs: Telegram launched collectible NFT gifts
- Art: Young women are driving art investment
- Vintage Autos: RM Sotheby’s sold 126 cars over $1 million
- Coins: An 1870-CC Double Eagle sold for $312,000
- Farmland: 76% of French farm soils contain microplastics
- Luxury: Saint Laurent opened a Miami flagship store
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Champagne shipments fell 9.4%
- Film & Music: Warner Bros. faced a class action lawsuit
- Precious Metals: Silver prices climbed to $29.60
- Collectibles: R.B. Ginsburg’s library auction raised $2.35M
- Websites: The top 100 domains averaged $457K in 2024
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Argentina eliminated its fiscal deficit for the first time in 123 years, while inflation dropped from 300% to 100%.
- Indonesia’s budget deficit came in below 2.7% of GDP in 2024, nearly matching the original 2.29% target.
- HSBC predicted a US stock rally in H1 2025, with homebuilders and banks positioned for strong performance.
- Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP growth is set to reach 4.2% in 2025, up from 3.6% in 2023.
- Singapore’s economy grew 4% in 2024, exceeding official forecasts of 3.5%.
- The US unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%.
Bearish News
- US credit card defaults hit a post-Great Recession high of $46 billion in the first nine months of 2024.
- US GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.6% in Q1 from 3.4% in Q4, while core PCE inflation jumped to 3.7%.
- European markets dropped in 2025, with the Euro Stoxx Automobiles & Parts Index down 13%.
- China’s GDP growth faltered at 2.4–2.8% in 2024, with weak domestic demand and a 23% drop in new property starts.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- In December, Blackstone purchased UK warehouses worth £200 million, bringing its total of 2024 industrial acquisitions to £1 billion.
- Citadel signed a 500,000-square-foot lease at 660 Fifth Avenue, making it Manhattan’s largest new office lease in Q4 2024.
- Norges Bank Investment Management acquired a 45% stake in a $1.1 billion US logistics portfolio.
- Charlotte’s largest home sold for $5.6 million, setting a record for the metro area.
- Austin’s housing market entered 2025 with 30% higher inventory than pre-pandemic levels.
- Saint Lucia advanced a Real Estate Bill to regulate its property sector, which contributes 22% to the country’s GDP.
Bearish News
- Two executives from Apex Equity Group received prison sentences for a $119 million mortgage fraud scheme.
- Office CMBS delinquency rates hit 11%, surpassing the Financial Crisis peak of 10.7%.
- San Francisco’s property tax revenue declined 2% to $2.46 billion.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Citadel bucking the office-exodus trend.
Startups
Bullish News
- Nvidia completed its $700 million acquisition of Run:ai.
- KoBold Metals raised $537 million at a $2.96 billion valuation.
- Accel raised a $650 million fund for its eighth India-focused investment vehicle.
- Dutch platform Ver.iD raised €2 million and is preparing for an additional €4 million round to expand across Europe.
- Nio reached 3,000 battery swap stations in China, providing over 61.7 million battery swaps to date.
Bearish News
- The Good Glamm Group delayed salary payments and hinted at mass layoffs after a funding round failed.
- Benefits startup Level shut down abruptly after acquisition talks collapsed.
- Nestlé-backed Sundial Foods closed operations and sold its IP after failing to scale.
- The number of active US VC investors dropped to 6,175 in 2024 from 8,315 in 2021.
How to invest in startups right now:
I could use a battery swap myself.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- US PE deal value reached $838.5 billion in 2024, with 8,473 deals completed.
- The NAV financing market is expected to deploy $145 billion by 2030, up from $44 billion in 2023.
- Atlas Holdings acquired Lendlease’s UK construction business in a $35 million deal.
- The $19.4 billion Ohio SERS added three new funds, expanding its credit and buyout strategies.
- Birch Hill Equity Partners acquired Rexall Pharmacy Group, adding 385 pharmacies and 8,000 employees to its portfolio.
Bearish News
- PE-owned hospitals showed higher mortality rates for esophagectomy patients at 8.1% vs 4.9% at non-PE hospitals.
- PE firms failed to sell or list their China-based portfolio companies.
- A former Arch Equity Partners member sued his ex-partner over $84,583 in unpaid management fees.
- PitchBook projected the first significant decline in PE fundraising in five years for 2025.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
How do you know if your hospital is PE-owned?
Crypto
Bullish News
- Venture capital funding for blockchain startups reached $13.6 billion in 2024, with analysts projecting over $18 billion in 2025.
- The IRS granted temporary relief on crypto tax reporting through December 2025.
- Frax Finance partnered with BlackRock to launch frxUSD stablecoin.
Bearish News
- Crypto security breaches hit record $2.36 billion in losses across 760 incidents in 2024.
- Tether’s USDT market cap fell sharply to $137.24 billion, its largest decline since FTX’s collapse.
- T3 Financial Crime Unit froze $126 million in USDT linked to money laundering.
- North Korean hackers stole a record $1.34 billion in crypto during 2024.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
So North Korea doesn’t have the internet but can somehow swipe 1.3B in crypto?
NFTs
Bullish News
- CryptoPunks dominated 2024 with multiple $16 million sales and growing cultural recognition.
- The NFT market recorded $8.83 billion in sales for 2024, exceeding 2023’s volume.
- Telegram launched collectible NFT gifts with over 1,400 unique variants.
Bearish News
- The SEC continued enforcement actions against NFT marketplaces while refusing to issue clear regulatory guidance.
- Scatter’s COO stepped down from the Milady-themed NFT platform after claiming they worked without salary for years.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
CryptoPunks has become a household name.
Artwork
Bullish News
- In 2024, the Guggenheim Museum Bilbao welcomed 1.3 million visitors, generating €672.7 million of the Basque region’s GDP.
- Female collectors outspent male collectors with a median expenditure of $410,000 in early 2024.
- The first Sufi art museum opened near Paris, featuring works from seven international contemporary artists through March 2025.
- The contemporary art market saw strong demand for affordable pieces, with 82% of transactions involving artworks under $5,000.
Bearish News
- Art investments lost 16% through November 2024, while fine wine dropped 11%, according to the All Art index.
- VIP art fair attendance dropped by half from 8 to 4 events per year between 2019 and 2023.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Zorionak! (congratulations in Basque).
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- RM Sotheby’s achieved $887 million in record 2024 sales, with 126 cars sold for over $1 million.
- A Bugatti Centodieci with 272 miles, valued at up to $15.6 million, heads to RM Sotheby’s Paris auction.
- Queen Maria of Yugoslavia’s 1931 Duesenberg Model J Convertible Sedan will appear at Gooding Christie’s Amelia Island auction.
- Ken Block’s custom 1977 Ford F-150 “Hoonitruck,” with 914 horsepower, will sell at Barrett-Jackson with no reserve.
- A restored 1986 Porsche 911 Carrera Coupe received bids up to $133,000 on Bring A Trailer.
Bearish News
- Used car values dropped 1.5% in December, with 60% of three-year-old vehicles losing value.
- Classic car insurance rates hit their highest increase in 50 years.
- Thieves stole and vandalized a 1956 Dodge Coronet, stripping its ignition and battery before abandoning it.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
I like that the Queen of Yugoslavia drove a convertible sedan.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- An 1870-CC Double Eagle graded XF45 NGC sold for $312,000 at Heritage Auctions, leading a $5.6 million sale.
- University of Haifa researchers unearthed 160 coins from King Alexander Jannaeus’s reign, one of the largest Hasmonean hoards ever found.
Bearish News
- A $3,900 PGA gold coin was stolen during a transaction at a Naugatuck coin show.
- The US Mint failed to verify its gold sources, with auditors finding no documentation from refiners certifying origins.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I was just looking for my $3,900 PGA gold coin.
Farmland
Bullish News
- A DeKalb County farm sold for $17,610 per acre, while Indiana farmland hit $13,119 per acre.
- The European agrivoltaics market is projected to reach $3.54 billion by 2033.
- Riverside, California, began building a green agriculture tech center with 50,000 square feet of solar PV greenhouses.
Bearish News
- French researchers found microplastic contamination in 76% of agricultural soil samples.
- A potential US-China trade war could cut soybean exports by 51.8% and corn exports by 84.3%.
- Farm loan repayment rates dropped as high input costs and lower commodity prices hurt margins.
- Polish farmers protested the EU-Mercosur trade deal, warning of harmful agricultural imports.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
[WOL]
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Chinese luxury consumers showed strong demand, with 56% planning to increase purchases in 2025.
- AI in luxury brands is forecast to grow from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $5.6 billion by 2034, with a 16.2% CAGR.
- Saint Laurent opened a Miami flagship store with two VIP rooms and exclusive vintage furniture.
- Breitling UK posted its second-highest sales ever at £76.4 million and expanded its boutique network.
- The global luxury market boosted digital growth as Perfect Corp acquired virtual try-on tech company Wannaby.
Bearish News
- Burberry shares fell 1.64% to £9.62, closing £4.58 below their 52-week high.
- Thieves stole $40,000 worth of luxury goods from an unlocked car, including Chanel, YSL, Gucci, Louis Vuitton, and Prada.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
That’s the last time I leave my car unlocked.
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- The bourbon market, valued at $7.8 billion in 2021, is projected to hit $12.8 billion by 2031.
- Greene King partnered with CleanCo to deliver 10,000 clean cocktails across British pubs.
Bearish News
- Clarkson’s pub lost 104 pint glasses in a day, adding to $27,000 in monthly parking marshal costs.
- Mexico’s tequila industry faced a 500 million liter oversupply, with Casamigos sales down 20% in July 2024.
- Alcohol stocks dropped after the US surgeon general proposed cancer warnings.
- Champagne shipments fell 9.4% to 271 million bottles in 2024, with exports down 15.1% on average.
- Thieves stole 35,200 pints of Guinness from a UK depot, worsening Diageo’s holiday shortage.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Now these are the type of partnerships we need more of.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Pershing Square retained 140 million UMG shares worth €3.395 billion after distributing 47 million to investors.
- The UK recorded music market grew 9.7% in 2024, with physical sales rising for the first time since 1994.
- Chula Vista approved an $85 million film studio complex with 89,000 square feet of virtual production space.
- The music production software market is expected to grow $432.8 million from 2025-2029 at 7.7% annually.
Bearish News
- Warner Bros. Discovery faced a class action lawsuit over securities fraud and goodwill impairment charges.
- The 2024 domestic box office dropped 3% to $8.75 billion, still below pre-pandemic levels of $11 billion.
- Universal’s Volcano Bay closed for a third consecutive day due to cold weather in Florida.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
What will it take to get you back in theaters?
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- AI mining startup KoBold Metals raised $537 million, reaching a $2.96 billion valuation.
- BMW i Ventures backed Phoenix Tailings to scale rare earth production to 200 tons annually.
- Silver prices climbed to $29.60 per ounce in January 2025.
- JWIPC Technology posted a 65.4% earnings growth over the past year.
- Neo Performance Materials sold its Quapaw rare metals facility for $1.5 million, securing a seven-year gallium supply deal.
Bearish News
- Germanium prices fell as sellers increased shipments ahead of Chinese New Year.
- Copper steadied near a 9-month low following weak Chinese manufacturing data.
- Commercial Metals Company projected a 52.2% Q4 earnings decline.
- De Beers stockpiled $2 billion in diamonds, the largest since 2008, after a 20% drop in sales.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Now’s the time to jump on Germanium!
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s library auction raised $2.35 million, with her Harvard Law Review copy selling for $100,312.
- The Southeast Asian collectibles market grew as trading platforms secured venture capital.
Bearish News
- An Arizona man was arrested for stealing $5,400 worth of trading cards from Target stores.
- Collectors found Panini used random jersey patches unrelated to players on their cards.
- Thieves stole $10,000 worth of Pokemon cards in a targeted comic shop heist.
- A court upheld an asset freeze over Jackie Robinson memorabilia fraud allegations.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
I love books, but do I love them $100,000 worth?
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- Rick Schwartz closed 2024 with a $1.025 million sale of BestOdds.com.
- Global domain registrations reached 369.5 million in 2023, projected to hit 464.8 million by 2030.
- The .ai domain registry neared 600,000 registrations, adding 25,000 new domains in a month.
- Ethereum Name Service hit 1.77 million active domains, with 19,139 new registrations in December.
- The top 100 domain sales in 2024 averaged $457,648, with six exceeding $1 million.
Bearish News
- A “DoubleClickjacking” exploit bypassed security controls, enabling account takeovers on major websites.
- Adult websites left South Carolina due to the new age verification law, driving traffic to unmoderated sites.
- CoinsDo reported impersonation scams targeting users through fake websites and phishing emails.
- The FTC fined accessiBe $1 million for false claims about its AI accessibility tool.
- Domain registrations stagnated at 362.3 million in Q4 2024, showing no growth from Q3.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
$1 million for BestOdds.com is quite the gamble.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- This issue was brought to you by our friends at Arta.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.