Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
ICYMI, yesterday we went down the luxury watches rabbit hole.
- Has the luxury watch market bottomed?
- Is now a good time to jump back in?
- And if so, what’s the best way to do it?
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: US inflation remained steady from May to April
- Real Estate: Commercial vacancy rates rose to 14% in Q2
- Startups: Cisco is investing $1 billion in startups working on AI
- Private Credit: Bain Capital has acquired PowerSchool
- Crypto: Deutsche Bank partnered with Bitpanda
- NFTs: NFTs reached a total all-time sales volume on June 4th
- Art: Banksy’s “Love Is In The Bin” sold for £18.58 million
- Vintage Autos: Cher’s 1972 Ferrari is up for sale
- Coins: A 1976-S Bicentennial Silver Quarter sold for $19,200
- Farmland: Farmer interest in solar leasing has doubled
- Luxury: Rakuten launched Rakuten+
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Dolly Parton made “Dolly Wines”
- Film & Music: SACEM collected $1.62 billion in royalties
- Precious Metals: Nifty Metal index crashed 10% on Tuesday
- Collectibles: A Michael Jordan card sold for $3 million
- Websites: Activision acquired Elsewhere.com
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- US inflation remained steady from May to April, below 3%.
- The S&P 500 closed May on a portfolio manager-led markup after traders sold into early strength.
- The European Central Bank cut its benchmark rate to 3.75%.
- Brazil’s economy rebounded in the first quarter on stronger investments and consumer demand.
- The US economy added 272,000 jobs in May, beating expectations.
- The Bank of Canada trimmed its key policy rate to 4.75%, the first G7 country to do so.
Bearish News
- Momentum models slipped 0.4% over the past week.
- Monthly US consumer-spending growth fell from 0.7% in March to 0.2% in April.
- Mortgage rates fell this past week, with loan applications falling 5.2% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
- A 1°C rise in global temperature causes a 12% decline in world GDP.
- The Manufacturing PMI registered 48.7% in May, with 55% of manufacturing GDP contracting.
What are the odds?
The odds of multiple rate cuts in 2024 continue to plummet.
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- The CMBS market thrived through the first five months of 2024, totaling $32.2 billion compared to $13 billion in 2023.
- Five of Nashville’s most respected real estate professionals $29,990,000.
- Emerson agreed to sell its remaining interests in the Copeland joint venture to Blackstone for approximately $3.5 billion.
Bearish News
- The commercial real estate market entered Q2 with rising vacancy rates, approaching nearly 14%.
- A Colorado real estate investor sued Chase Bank for discrimination and breach of contract over an $80,000 deposit issue.
- Queens real estate brokers are speaking out against a proposed NYC Council bill, arguing it could increase rents and reduce housing supply.
- In Fort Worth, Texas, home prices rose moderately in May, but listings shrank 4%.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Anyone have $30 million burning a hole in their pocket?
Startups
Bullish News
- AI startup Cohere locked up a $450 million investment at a $5 billion valuation from Nvidia, Salesforce Ventures, and Cisco.
- Corporate payments startup Payhawk revealed revenue climbed 86% globally year-over-year in Q1.
- Cisco Investments launched a $1 billion AI investment fund, committing $200 million to Cohere, Mistral AI, and Scale AI.
- The NFX fund’s FAST rapid emergency investment track selected five startups to receive $20 million in funding.
- Tenable is in advanced negotiations to acquire Israeli cyber company Eureka for several tens of millions of dollars.
- Seraphim Space Investment Trust reported its early-stage space investments increased by 1.4% to £201 million in Q1.
Bearish News
- Only 10%-15% of VC-backed startups can likely raise another round right now.
- Hamburg saw a record number of new start-ups in Q1 2024, but closures also rose 12% compared to the same period in 2023.
- Hundreds of Snowflake customer passwords were found online, linked to info-stealing malware.
- Chinese AI chip firms are downgrading designs to secure TSMC production during US sanctions.
- Peloton users reported bike systems ‘freezing’, rendering the bikes unusable.
How to invest in startups right now:
Luckily, the frozen bike can still be used as a coat rack.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- A US appeals court ruled in favor of PE and hedge fund groups, finding the SEC exceeded its authority.
- Fairway Private Equity & Venture Capital Opportunities Fund increased in Net Asset Value by 5% in Q1 2024.
- PE’s two-year slide-ins closed slowed in the first half of 2024, with the buyout deal count tracking down 4% globally.
- Grant Thornton became the largest firm in the US to receive a PE infusion after recording a record $2.4 billion in revenue for 2023.
- PowerSchool entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Bain Capital in a $5.6 billion transaction.
Bearish News
- PE firms are compensating through secret “side letter” agreements, raising grave concerns according to a former SEC attorney.
- The annual SuperReturn conference in Berlin was overshadowed as global buyout-backed exits fell 44% to $345 billion in 2023.
- PC investments have died down as buyout activity decreases and regulators increase oversight of the $2 trillion market.
- The SEC and DOJ charged the CEO of Trillium for a $4 billion “pump and dump” scheme involving Getty Images.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Big win for PE in the US appeals court
Crypto
Bullish News
- Deutsche Bank partnered with Bitpanda to process customer deposits and withdrawals for the Austrian crypto broker.
- Robinhood agreed to buy crypto exchange Bitstamp for $200 million in cash.
- The SEC issued a rule change allowing three major US exchanges to potentially list and trade eight different spot Ethereum funds.
- BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) toppled Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as the largest spot bitcoin ETF by assets, with $19.5 billion.
- Coinbase donated $25 million to the pro-crypto super PAC Fairshake to vote anti-crypto politicians out of Congress.
- Ethereum-based ETFs arriving in the US are set to attract $4 billion of inflows in the first five months.
Bearish News
- Javier Milei’s administration announced they are not pushing for a Bitcoin standard in Argentina.
- Turkey has almost finalized work on imposing a transaction tax on stocks and crypto assets.
- The combined trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 20.1% to $5.27 trillion in May 2024.
- Binance founder CZ has reported to serve a four-month sentence for violating the Bank Secrecy Act.
- Epoch Times CFO Bill Guan was indicted by the US Department of Justice for laundering $67 million using crypto.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Another week, another crypto laundering attempt.
NFTs
Bullish News
- The market cap of the top 10 Bitcoin-based NFTs, including Ordinals and Runes, surged to $1.03 billion in May 2024.
- On June 4th, NFTs reached a total all-time sales volume of over $4 billion, taking the top spot among blockchains.
- Sotheby’s announced they are auctioning a highly coveted NFT on June 18, 2024.
- NFTs are revolutionizing F1 racing with collectible cars and virtual racing experiences.
- Jam Galaxy and Tune.FM have partnered to create a music streaming platform and NFT marketplace.
Bearish News
- Bitcoin NFT sales dropped 68% in May to $160 million, the lowest since October 2022.
- The US Treasury identified NFTs as “highly susceptible to fraud and scams” in its latest risk assessment on illicit finance.
- Major blockchains faced their worst NFT sales month since October, a 54% drop from April.
- Dapper Labs reached a $4 million settlement in a class-action lawsuit alleging the NFTs were unregistered securities.
- Three individuals were charged with wire fraud money laundering in connection with the 2021 “Evolved Apes” NFT rug pull scam.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
As if F1 couldn’t get any cooler.
Artwork
Bullish News
- The Pensacola Museum of Art unveiled a new exhibit celebrating its 70th anniversary.
- Banksy’s “Love Is In The Bin” sold for £18.58 million, making it his most expensive artwork sold at auction.
- A London gallery subsector has framed art as a haven, claiming blue-chip returns consistently outperformed the FTSE 100.
- The German government announced a reduction in the VAT rate on artwork sales from 19% to 7%, set to take effect in January 2025.
- Bonhams Hong Kong auctioned one of Yayoi Kusama’s unseen abstract masterpieces, Infinity, for approximately $6 million.
Bearish News
- Nearly half of galleries implemented cost-cutting measures in 2023, with 39% doing fewer art fairs and 19% reducing their workforce.
- The Vanderburgh County Council approved only $300,000 of the requested $500,000 for the Evansville Museum’s Picasso exhibit.
- Christie’s has been sued for failing to protect the personal data of at least 500,000 clients in a cyberattack.
- David Voss pleaded guilty to charges related to peddling over 1,500 fake Norval Morrisseau works between 1996 and 2019.
- A climate activist vandalized a Monet painting by sticking an adhesive poster on it.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Banksy is in the news again, this time without putting a paper shredder in a picture frame.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- The Dark Corner Classic Car Show in Landrum showed a record 253 vehicles and a $10,000 donation.
- Video games like Forza and Gran Turismo have fueled Gen Z’s enthusiasm for classic cars.
- The first Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider will headline RM Sotheby’s Monterey auction on August 16-17, 2024.
- Cher’s 1972 Ferrari 246 Dino GTS was put up for sale on Bring a Trailer.
- Vintage vehicles worth over $2 million were found hidden in an abandoned barn in Ontario, Canada.
Bearish News
- Restoration shops are struggling with rising costs, poor-quality parts, and a worker shortage.
- A driver was detained after crashing a classic Ford Mustang into a Rancho Cordova liquor store.
- The Vehicle Remarketing Association highlighted valuation challenges with “Covid cars,” and their irregular specifications affecting dealers.
- A 1968 Ford Galaxie restored by Make-A-Wish was stolen in Michigan.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
I just thought of another wish.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- The Tyrant Collection’s $5 million rare Egyptian coin exhibit will debut at the ANA Chicago World’s Fair of Money.
- A 1976-S Bicentennial Silver Quarter beat records, selling for $19,200.
- The Royal Mint signed a £100 million deal with RARCOA, entering the US commemorative coin market.
- Stack’s Bowers Galleries named John Kraljevich as Director of Numismatic Americana.
- A hiker in the Czech Republic discovered over 2,000 medieval silver coins.
Bearish News
- A 2-pound gold nugget worth $82,100 was stolen from the Long Beach Convention Center during the Long Beach Expo.
- Rare Bluey coins sold out quickly and resold at a 582% markup, as resellers dominated the market, frustrating genuine collectors.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Where are my hiking boots?
Farmland
Bullish News
- The farmland market peaked in January at $25,000 an acre in west-central Illinois.
- Farmer interest in solar leasing has doubled, with 20% discussing leases.
- California announced Drought Group 3 funds, allocating up to $100,000 to small agricultural businesses.
- The Biden-Harris administration announced a $700 million investment for Lower Colorado River Basin water conservation.
- Canada has announced an $8.1 million investment on Monday in crop diversification research.
Bearish News
- Large speculators expanded their net short position in CBOT corn futures to 133,477 contracts.
- Farmland prices fell to a 47.9 rating in Creighton’s May Rural Mainstreet Index, with 64% of Illinois respondents expecting further declines in 2024.
- The Fed’s Beige Book reported concerns over farm finances and incomes, with many row crop farmers not expecting profits this year.
- Due to changing cultivation practices, 10% of farmland trees in India have disappeared.
- The J.M. Smucker Co. reported a 1% decrease in net sales for Q4.
- A class action lawsuit in Stoddard County accuses Tyson Foods of a fraudulent scheme that devastated the region.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Buy the dip… and the jam.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Rakuten launched Rakuten+, offering a minimum of 10% cash back on luxury brand purchases year-round.
- The luxury fashion market, worth $273.72 billion in 2023, is expected to reach $360.20 billion by 2030.
- Formula 1 driver Charles Leclerc invested in Chrono24 the world’s largest luxury watch online marketplace, now valued at over $1 billion.
- Gen Z has pushed luxury market brands to rethink their marketing, seeing a 69% MIV growth over the past three years.
Bearish News
- Luxury brands’ reputations declined in the latest RepTrak ranking, with Prada falling off the top 100.
- Europe’s top luxury stocks showed a slowdown in growth in their first-quarter earnings results.
- Giambattista Valli reputation slipped after lending a purchased sample to Anya Taylor-Joy at Cannes that went viral on Xiaohongshu.
- Chanel’s top designer departed on Thursday, causing ripples in the luxury industry as market strategies appeared strained.
- Burberry Group shares inched down 0.96%, closing £12.62 below its 52-week high.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
So Chanel’s hiring? Where do I send my application?
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Dolly Parton launched her new wine collection, “Dolly Wines“.
- The global beverage alcohol market is set to recover by 2025, with India, China, and the US adding $30 billion in value by 2028.
- Silent Pool’s honey-infused English gin is now available in the US after being acquired by William Grant & Sons.
- Sweden and Finland are moving to relax strict alcohol laws, permitting stronger drinks in supermarkets.
- Kentucky’s tourism hit a record with nearly $14 billion in spending with bourbon as a key driver.
Bearish News
- The FTC has prepared an antitrust lawsuit against Southern Glazer’s Wine and Spirits.
- Suntory denied talks to buy Boston Beer Company for $3 billion, causing the stock to drop to $280.
- The feds have grilled ex-workers from NYC’s iconic Sherry-Lehmann wine shop as a fraud probe intensifies over alleged sales of nonexistent wines.
- Rep. Ilhan Omar’s husband was accused of swindling an investor in their California winery, failing to triple a $300,000 investment.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Time to start learning Finnish.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Blackstone raised its offer for Hipgnosis Songs Fund to $1.31 per share, valuing the owner at $1.58 billion.
- Concord Originals and NewFest launched Sound & Scene, supporting LGBTQIA+ filmmakers of color with $20,000 per film.
- France’s SACEM collected a record $1.62 billion in royalties showing a 5% year-on-year increase.
- Twitch announced a new program to allow DJs to use copywriter music by paying a fee.
- The global live music market is set to grow by $35.56 billion from 2024-2028.
- GMM Music announced a $700 million partnership with Tencent Music Entertainment.
Bearish News
- Live Nation’s Dan Wall dismissed AEG’s Jay Marciano’s comments on the DoJ antitrust lawsuit as “self-serving” and “ignored.”
- Paramount Pictures is up for sale after the firing of its CEO in late April.
- Ticketek Australia announced an investigation into a data breach of customer’s names, dates of birth, and email addresses.
- Bellevue’s ‘Le Smash’ entertainment venue abruptly closed, leaving customers frustrated.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
It’s about time Twitch DJ’s caught a break.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Indian Reliance Industries purchased COMEX silver futures and requested delivery of 25 million ounces.
- Dorset Museum raised £32,000 acquiring two hoards of Bronze and Iron Age treasures.
- The Metal Recycling Market is set to be worth $767.9 billion by 2029 according to a report done by MarketsandMarkets.
- Fund managers kept long positions in copper as the CME squeeze faded, with LME stocks rising and Chinese inventories building.
Bearish News
- The Silver Institute reported a 663 million-ounce shortfall and forecasts another 215 million-ounce shortfall for 2024.
- The Nifty Metal index crashed over 10% on Tuesday as stocks like NALCO, SAIL, NMDC, and Hindustan Copper fell 15-19%
- ArcelorMittal’s Mexico plant lost 100,000 tonnes of steel in ten days due to workers’ protests demanding higher profit-sharing payments.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Who knew hoards could be so lucrative?
Collectibles
Bullish News
- A British man set a $3 million at Goldin, setting a new record.
- Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs jersey from his 20th birthday game sold for $120,000 at Sotheby’s, shattering pre-sale estimates of $30,000.
- A Boba Fett model sold for $525,000 at Heritage on May 31, setting a record for vintage toys at auction.
Bearish News
- A Dallas track and field legend had all his honors stolen from a storage unit.
- Jackie Robinson’s original Dodgers contracts, valued at $36 million, are frozen in a fraud case.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
How fast must you be to dare steal from a track and field legend?
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- GoDaddy won a reverse domain hijacking case against French company SmartCatch for abusing UDRP policy.
- A shopping list app, a musical instruments company, and a real estate business bought domain names for up to €55,000.
- Activision acquired the domain name Elsewhere.com to align with its new internal studio branding.
- 96% of Google’s top 10 websites have over 1,000 backlinks from unique domains.
- GoDaddy has planned another auction of its NameFind inventory in June, featuring nearly 400 domains.
- Unstoppable Domains and Blockchain.com are set to collaborate on DNS-enabled Web3 domain called “.blockchain”.
- The global IPv6 market is expected to reach $40.39 billion by 2034.
Bearish News
- The Brooklyn DA seized 70 domains linked to a $5 million pig butchering scam.
- Australians lost $38 million to scams in June 2023 through online tax return fakes.
- 361 million email addresses from stolen credentials were added to Have I Been Pwned.
- A Europol-led operation disrupted major dropper malware and botnets, seizing servers and domains across 12 countries.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Be right back, checking to see if I’ve been pwned.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC, ETH, and a couple Star Wars Action figures in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
