Stagflation: Tipping Point or Tempest in a Teapot

Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe

In honor of the proposed capital gains tax hike, my book recommendation this week is the award-winning ​The First Tycoon: The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt​.

The First Tycoon: The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt (Pulitzer Prize Winner) - Stiles, T. J.

When Vanderbilt passed away in 1877, his estate was worth an estimated $100 million. His fortune represented:

  • 1.25% of the American GDP
  • One out of every 17 dollars in circulation

It’s an epic story of a truly self-made titan. ​Check it out​.

If you like this, browse through the rest of my ​curated book recommendations​.

Highlights from the full issue:

  • Macro: GDP grew at its slowest rate since Q2 2022
  • Real Estate: Homes had a median of 50 days on the market
  • Startups: Xaira Therapeutics unveiled $1 billion in funding
  • Private Credit: Goldman hired two bankers from JPMorgan
  • Crypto: Arkansas passed two bills to regulate crypto mining
  • NFTs: FC Barcelona exhibited its first two NFTs
  • Art: Another Monet is expected to reach $30 million
  • Vintage Autos: Formula 1 is heading to auction
  • Coins: Archaeologists found 170 coins from the 12th century
  • Farmland: Midwest Farmland is on the rise
  • Luxury: Hermès had a strong Q1
  • Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: RTD continues to dominate
  • Film & Music: Latin music outpaced the general music market
  • Precious Metals: US government is big on “phytomining”
  • Collectibles: Tom Brady has bad handwriting
  • Websites: pay.day sold for €21,000

Let’s go.

Wyatt

Macro View

Bullish News

  • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted that US growth is ​likely stronger​ than Q1 GDP suggests.
  • Personal consumption expenditures ​rose 0.8%​ in March for the second straight month, the strongest in over a year.
  • China’s treasury bond market ​has become​ the third-largest globally.

Bearish News

What are the odds?

GDP forecasts have plummeted, and inflation rates are skyrocketing.

Get $25 to play around with using this link.

What are we doing?

​Altea​ Highlights

Check out the ​full roundup​.

Live Deals

There are a ton of live deals over Altea right now, but of course, the one we’re most excited about is the reopening of ​Alts 1​, which is available to new investors through the end of May.

​ALTS 1​ Fund news

We are accepting new investors. Click ​here​ to express interest.

Real Estate

Bullish News

  • New York’s budget bill brought back a ​property tax break​, added tenant protections, and encouraged office-to-residential conversions.
  • A settlement that will rewrite how many ​real estate agents are paid​ in the US received preliminary approval.
  • The East End real estate market saw pricing statistics ​continue to hold​ near record-high levels in Q1 2024.
  • Since 1870, real estate ​has yielded​ an average annual return of 7.05%.
  • Homes had a median of ​50 days​ on the market in March, but in places like Boston and San Francisco they sold in under 25 days.
  • Mayor Karen Bass urged LA’s wealthy residents to support ​a new initiative​ that has raised over $10 million to purchase apartments for the city’s unhoused.
  • A 12,655-square-foot home on nearly 61 acres of ranchland sold for ​$77 million​, setting a record for Colorado.

Bearish News

How to invest in real estate right now:

Speed is necessary to compete in SF and Boston, apparently.

Startups

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in startups right now:

18 months for defrauding $100 million. Seems about right.

Private Equity and Private Credit

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:

The Kardashians did not keep up. [Ed note: sorry]

Crypto

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in Crypto right now:

For anybody who has doubts about crypto, Slim Shady should put you at ease.

NFTs

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in NFTs right now:

I’m curious if we’ll see any more big Punk trades anytime soon.

Artwork

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in Artwork right now:

Tons of big New York actions this May. Stay tuned.

Vintage Autos

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:

Formula 1 has hit the auction block.

Rare Coins

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in Rare Coins right now:

Think twice before trying to alter your coins with a homemade soldering kit.

Farmland

Bullish News

  • Suffolk County Executive Ed Romaine signed legislation appropriating ​$15 million​ for farmland preservation in 2024.
  • The Midwestern farmland price index rose to a solid ​56.5 in April​, continuing to expand for the 53rd straight month.
  • South Carolina’s new $3 million “Working Agricultural Lands Preservation Act” ​aims to protect​ millions of acres of farmland from development.
  • Farmland values in southwest Minnesota have risen ​nearly 40%​ in four years.
  • The New York State Department of Agriculture ​awarded $500,000​ to 50 county and youth fairs to boost promotion.
  • Applegate Farms LLC ​announced a $50,000 donation​ to American Farmland Trust’s Brighter Future Fund.

Bearish News

How to invest in Farmland right now:

Check out ​Harvest Returns​.

Luxury Goods

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:

LVMH x Stanford was not a collaboration I was expecting.

Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:

Find a way to invest in RTD.

Last chance to get in on our ​tequila SPV​. ​Let me know​ if you’re interested.

Music and Film

Bullish News

Bearish News

  • The US Department of Justice ​plans to sue Live Nation​, Ticketmaster’s parent company, for antitrust, citing its 80% control over primary ticket sales in large venues.
  • The US Senate ​passed a bill​ that would force TikTok’s China-based parent company to sell the app or face a ban.
  • Florida’s film industry, once third in the nation for production work, ​faced major setbacks​ and now doesn’t even rank in the top 20.

How to invest in Music and Film right now:

Here’s to cheaper ticket prices.

Metals and Gems

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:

Lab-grown diamonds? In with the old, out with the new, I suppose.

Collectibles

Bullish News

Bearish News

  • Collectors alleged Tom Brady’s ​sloppy penmanship​ ruined memorabilia at a $3,600 event, with Beckett Collectibles rejecting the signed items.
  • Cosmic Comics Games & Collectibles, open since September 2018, ​will close in August​ due to insufficient revenue.

How to invest in Collectibles right now:

Turns out a perfect spiral doesn’t translate to calligraphy.

Websites and Domains

Bullish News

Bearish News

How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:

Of all airport hijacks, this is probably the least alarming one to lose.

That’s all for this week

Cheers,

Wyatt

Disclosures

  • We hold BTC, ETH, and a couple Star Wars Action figures in our ​ALTS 1 Fund​.
  • There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.

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Author

Picture of Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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