Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: New orders for durable goods increased in May
- Real Estate: Detroit is the best city for real estate agents
- Startups: Brazil’s Nubank acquired Hyperplane
- Private Credit: PC fundraising is set to exceed 2023 levels
- Crypto: Louisiana passed a pro-bitcoin bill
- NFTs: CryptoPunks topped daily NFT sales
- Art: AI in Art Market is set to reach $40.4 billion by 2033
- Vintage Autos: The last Miller-Gulf Cars unveiled
- Coins: Two gold Chinese coins sold for $816,000 each
- Farmland: Value of acre per farmland jumps 10%
- Luxury: Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group claimed THG’s portfolio
- Wine, Tequila, and Spirits: Agave spirits remain high
- Film & Music: A24 closed a $75 million investment round
- Precious Metals: Heraeus acquired McCol Metals
- Collectibles: Elvis’s blue suede shoes sold for $150,000
- Websites: US courts tighten cybersecurity
Let’s go.
Wyatt
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at least once during the remaining 2024 meetings.
- The US dollar remains appealing, with USD/JPY breaching ¥161.
- Southeast Asia’s economies sustained growth in Q1 2024; Indonesia’s GDP grew 5.11%, and unemployment fell to 4.82%.
- Rystad Energy predicted a significant US crude inventory draw, supporting bullish sentiment for Brent prices.
- The stock market forecast remains bullish; S&P 500 is up 14.5% YTD, with 2026 earnings forecasted to reach $300.
- New orders for durable goods in May increased by $0.3 billion, driven by a 0.6% rise in transportation equipment.
Bearish News
- The US economy’s Q1 performance was revised to 1.4%, with slowest consumer spending in 18 months.
- Momentum models were flat, with equity models down 0.1% WoW and rates up 0.2% WoW.
- In China, warehouses and industrial parks faced a slowdown, with vacancy rates nearing 20%.
- European Commission regulators sued Apple over App Store payment practices, violating the EU’s Digital Markets Act.
- Thousands of UK bank customers experienced payment problems, affecting HSBC, Nationwide, and Barclays.
- JPMorgan Chase admitted the Federal Reserve overestimated a key income measure in its stress test.
- Macron’s election decision caused France’s finance industry to fear losing its powerhouse status.
- Nike expects FY25 sales to drop mid-single-digits, with Q1 revenue down 10% due to uncertainty in China.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
Altea Highlights
Check out the full roundup.
Upcoming Deals
We’re kicking around five ideas at the moment and a new opportunity in alternative real estate.
- A champagne SPV targeting 15% to 18% returns – I’m interested in this.
- Cash-flowing agave farmland targeting 16% to 27% returns – I’m interested in this.
- Cash-flowing tequila SPV with annual distributions targeting 30%+ returns – I’m interested in this.
- We’re speaking with two different sponsors in the film finance space, specifically looking at horror films, which bring the highest ROI of any genre. I’m interested in this.
- We’re still early in identifying opportunities, but litigation finance is the most requested asset class. We should have something good ready within a few weeks. I’m interested in this.
Investor Field Trips
The Nashville site is up, and we’re taking commitments. Stefan tells me we’ve already filled five slots, and he’s booked the headline speaker.
This trip is going to blow the doors off. Make sure to RSVP early and often.
You’ll stay at the Noelle Hotel — an experiential hotel in downtown Nashville and a creative gathering place for adventurous people seeking an authentic Nashville experience.
ALTS 1 Fund news
I’ve been reliably informed the investor portal will be ready for new investors this week.
Real Estate
Bullish News
- LA County’s median sale price for single-family homes reached $811,610 in May 2024, a 9% increase.
- Detroit emerged as the best city for real estate agents, with nearly 5x more sales per agent. [Ed: is that because only the strong survive in Detroit?]
- An oceanfront home in Osterville, Cape Cod sold for a record-breaking $22,750,000.
- REcolorado, the 16th-largest MLS, was sold to a private-equity backed company.
- Blackstone agreed to buy British hotel operator Village Hotels, valued at around $1.1 billion.
Bearish News
- Real estate investor pleaded guilty to defrauding lenders out of $54.7 million in Michigan and other states.
- Austin, Texas, sellers slashed home prices by up to 30% as the city struggled to recover.
- CMBS delinquency rate increased to 5.07% in June, with office sector loans at 39.1%.
- Pending home sales decreased 2.1% in May, per National Association of REALTORS®.
- Total US mortgage debt stood at $20.3 trillion in Q1 2024, with a 1.71% delinquency rate.
- Washington has the fifth highest “housing wage” in the US, requiring $40/hour for a two-bedroom home.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Detroit is on the up and up.
Startups
Bullish News
- Europe has poured public funds into quantum tech startups, with global public funding reaching $42 billion.
- Enduring Planet raised $9 million to offer loans to climate tech startups from $100,000 to $500,000.
- Brazil’s Nubank acquired San Francisco-based data intelligence startup Hyperplane.
- Indian instant-delivery company Zepto is in talks to raise $400 million at a $4.6 billion valuation.
- Bitcoin miner Hut 8’s shares rallied after securing a $150 million investment from Coatue Management.
- k-ID closed a $45 million Series A funding round from Andreessen Horowitz and Lightspeed Venture Partners.
- Digital bank Chime acquired fintech startup Salt Labs for $14 million in cash and 0.9% equity.
Bearish News
- Major US record labels have sued AI music startups Suno and Uncharted Labs for alleged mass copyright infringement.
- DoorDash showed interest in acquiring Deliveroo, but talks ended over valuation disagreements.
- California tech companies, represented by Y Combinator, criticized proposed AI regulations in an open letter.
- Mariner Wealth Advisors sued RIA Savvy Advisors and ex-employees for stealing trade secrets and poaching $60M in assets.
- Federal authorities expanded their probe into Done Global over alleged Adderall fraud, charging more individuals.
- GitLab shares slipped 10% despite a revenue guidance boost, with Wall Street firms trimming price targets.
How to invest in startups right now:
But have they heard BBL Drizzy?
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- KKR sought $20 billion for its latest flagship North American PE fund.
- PC fundraising this year is set to exceed 2023 levels, according to Morningstar.
- The European PC market is set to grow faster than the US over the next five years. [Ed: lolz]
- Andreessen Horowitz announced plans to raise its first PE fund.
- AI-based Formation Bio secured a $372 million series D round as it seeks to expand its pipeline.
- PE firms and litigation funders have flocked to Arizona to take advantage of its looser rules on law firm ownership.
- PE firm Altaris announced plans to take Sharecare private in a $518 million acquisition deal.
- Blackstone drew €1 billion into its European PC fund.
Bearish News
- Sequoia Capital Operations sued a real estate firm for using the same name, despite its 2019 registration.
- Bank of England said risk management in PE needs improvement due to rising financing costs.
- PE firms faced rising risks from UK class action lawsuits due to heightened regulation.
- SEC’s top enforcement official expressed concerns on Friday about PC valuations and opacity.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Welcome Horowitz to the wonderful world of PE.
Crypto
Bullish News
- The US Treasury finalized a rule requiring crypto brokers to report user sales and exchanges to the IRS.
- Crypto companies have become central to deal-making as bitcoin miners chase the AI boom, with a $22.8 billion market cap.
- Louisiana passed a pro-bitcoin bill on Monday to protect access to bitcoin and curb CBDCs.
- An eToro survey found 32% of retail investors hold crypto assets, with 15% prioritizing crypto investments.
- Bybit surpassed Coinbase, becoming the world’s second-largest crypto exchange with a 16% market share in March.
- SoSoValue raised $4.15 million in seed funding and reached 1.2 million users in four months.
- Bybit’s growth, driven by filling FTX’s gap, surged to second globally in trading volume.
- Uniswap announced an expansion to Zora Network, offering lower gas fees, faster swaps, and Zora Network NFT support.
- Shiba Inu experienced a 2,682% daily burn rate surge, with 18.6 million SHIB burned in 24 hours.
Bearish News
- Bitcoin has been seen a new June low as experts predicted further declines.
- Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 on Monday, continuing its downward trend.
- FBI warned that cryptocurrency scam victims lost nearly $10 million over the past year.
- A California judge’s ruling in a Ripple lawsuit muddied the waters on XRP’s security status.
- EU’s new stablecoin rules from the Markets in Crypto Assets legislation are set to take effect on June 30.
- Coinbase announced the risk of regulatory action coming in 2025 over its accounting for crypto assets.
- JPMorgan said crypto markets faced downside risk in July due to potential selling pressure from Mt. Gox creditors.
- SEC sued MetaMask developer Consensys for allegedly failing to register as a broker-dealer.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
I wouldn’t call $4.5 million a SoSoValue.
NFTs
Bullish News
- NFTs are set to be introduced into video games for gamers to own, trade, and monetize virtual items and characters.
- Paris Match auctioned 75 archival photos as Ethereum NFTs for its 75th anniversary, including signed physical prints.
- CryptoPunks topped daily NFT sales with $1.34 million on June 25, averaging $224,950 per NFT.
- The Museum of the Moving Image partnered with the Tezos Foundation to showcase digital artwork by contemporary artists.
Bearish News
- Mark Cuban offloaded $37,800 in NFTs, sparking speculation about his interest in the middle of the market downturn.
- The NFT market dropped 12% last week, with Ethereum leading but seeing a 9.5% increase in wash trading.
- NFT sales volume plummeted 45% in Q2 2024, lowest since Q3 2023.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
Cuban is out!
Artwork
Bullish News
- A Harry Potter watercolor drawing sold for $1.9 million at Sotheby’s, the most expensive Harry Potter item ever sold.
- George Condo’s Green and Purple Head Composition sold for £1 million at Phillips’s London sale.
- AI in Art Market is set to reach $40.4 billion by 2033, growing at 28.9% CAGR.
- The Vatican Museums became the second most visited in 2023, with 6.76 million visitors, after the Louvre.
- Sotheby’s announced the relocation of Paris headquarters to Galerie Bernheim-Jeune’s former home in mid-October.
Bearish News
- The DOJ recovered $100 million in assets, including Warhol and Monet artworks, linked to the 1MDB scandal involving Jho Low.
- Florida governor Ron DeSantis stripped away $32 million in arts funding.
- Winnipeg Art Gallery displayed a fake Norval Morrisseau painting, part of a 1,700-piece art fraud scheme.
- Nelson Counne, “worst boyfriend on Upper East Side,” sentenced for conning $1.8 million from girlfriends as an art investor.
- Street artist Invader reported on New York’s destruction of his work for resale, leaving broken, unsigned tiles.
- Mystery tax defaulter in Spain settled millions in debt by donating 200+ Goya artworks.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
That’s a lot of chocolate frogs.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- A 1954 Kaiser Darrin convertible Model 161 #96 sped past its high estimate to take $48,600 at Schultz Auctioneers’ June 14 auction.
- A new generation of car collectors favors 80s-90s vehicles like The Fast and The Furious and Gran Turismo.
- Worldwide Auctioneers’ 54th Annual Collector Car Auction and Show in Auburn, Indiana, will feature the only two 1937 Miller-Gulf Race Cars in existence.
Bearish News
- A man was arrested in Rome after reportedly stealing four classic vehicles from a home on Cunningham Road.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Anyone down to watch Tokyo Drift?
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Certain 1964-D Kennedy Half Dollars, the last 90% silver issue, can fetch up to $26,500 at auction.
- The West Point Mint produced 8,495,008 2003 American Silver Eagle bullion coins, with MS70 prices ranging from $85 to $125 in 2024.
- The Kew Gardens 50p, the rarest UK 50p piece, recently sold for £142.
- Two gold Chinese coins celebrating notable scientific inventions sold for $816,000 each at Heritage’s HKINF World & Ancient Coins Auction.
- Archaeologists discovered two Roman coins on Alderney, including a silver “antoninianus” featuring Valerian II, who died suspiciously in A.D. 255.
- A metal detectorist discovered a hoard of eight medieval silver coins dating back to the 14th century in a Derbyshire field.
Bearish News
- Hundreds of gold coins worth over $200,000 were stolen from a Seaside, California home, with the victim having low hopes of recovery.
- Police arrested a suspect in the 2015 double murder at a Cheyenne coin shop after a nine-year investigation.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
I was just wondering where my “antoninianus” went.
Farmland
Bullish News
- The Ohio Department of Agriculture added 187 acres to the Farmland Preservation Program, totaling 106,424 acres since 1998.
- The national average value per acre of farmland was $3,846 in 2022, a 10% increase from the 2017 Census.
- Despite commodity price fluctuations, farmland values remain steady.
- Verizon Business is working with Monarch Tractor to connect autonomous tractors using Verizon’s network.
- The value of Oregon farmland increased by 23% over five years, according to USDA Census of Agriculture data.
- The USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture announced a $70 million investment in seven agricultural projects.
Bearish News
- US Sen. Debbie Stabenow said the House Agriculture Committee’s version of the $1.5 trillion farm bill will not get Senate support.
- A report detailed the hurdles minority farmers face in Connecticut, with BIPOC farmers making up only 1.4% of producers.
- Monsanto estimates 54,000 Roundup lawsuits are still currently active.
- Floodwaters breached levees in Iowa, prompting evacuations, damaging homes, and causing at least two deaths.
- Deforestation has pushed the price of chocolate upward, sitting now at a historic $10,000 per ton.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
I guess I’ll take vanilla.
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- LVMH, the largest luxury goods conglomerate, now owns 75 iconic brands and has collectively reported revenues of $92.5 billion for 2023.
- The metaverse is redefining luxury fashion in virtual realms, which could reach $50 billion by 2030.
- Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group agreed to buy THG’s portfolio of luxury goods websites, bolstering its luxury offering.
- Interpol’s Operation First Light 2024 resulted in 3,950 arrests and the seizure of assets worth $257 million.
- Hongkong Land announced “Tomorrow’s CENTRAL”, a plan to invest over $400 million to expand its LANDMARK retail portfolio investment plan.
Bearish News
- LVMH’s Christian Dior brand was placed under judicial administration after an investigation found worker exploitation by its subcontractors.
- Swiss watch exports to China declined sharply in May, falling 18% in mainland China and 23% in Hong Kong.
- Four suspects stole over $100,000 worth of luxury handbags from a Chanel store in Tysons Galleria.
- A former Gucci store employee filed a lawsuit alleging consumer fraud.
- Counterfeiting techniques have evolved with advancements in 3D printing, chemical replication, and global smuggling networks.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
LVMH is an unstoppable juggernaut
Wine, Tequila, and other Spirits
Bullish News
- Agave spirits saw a 4% volume increase in 2023, with a projected 6% CAGR over the next four years despite the overall alcohol market drop.
- Citi maintained a Buy rating on Constellation Brands stock with a $305 price target.
- A Bank of America study found that wealthy US millennials are more than twice as likely to invest in wine as Gen X or Boomers.
- The global Closures for Wine market is projected to reach multimillion USD by 2031.
- The Kentucky Bourbon Trail added 28 new craft distilleries to its tour, joining the 18 previously featured distilleries.
- BlockBar auctioned the oldest Eagle Rare 25 Year Old bourbon, with bids reaching $28,000 for the first numbered bottle.
- Actress Margot Robbie invested in the gin brand Papa Salt.
Bearish News
- Spirits sales in Australia’s on-trade fell by 8.1% in volume in the year to March 2024.
- Italian spirits giant Campari Group denied reports of a $5 billion tax fraud investigation, but an investigation may still be underway.
- A London man avoided prison for his role in a $13 million rare wine and whiskey scam that targeted 150 people.
- The Better Business Bureau warns of phishing scams disguised as 4th of July holiday sales.
- V. Sattui Winery in St. Helena, California, is being sued by a former employee in a class-action lawsuit alleging wage abuse.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
I wondered why buying wine online required a social security number and my mother’s maiden name.
Music and Film
Bullish News
- A24 closed a $75 million investment round led by Thrive Capital, valuing the studio at $3.5 billion, a 40% increase over its previous funding round.
- YouTube offered lump sums to major record labels to license songs for training its AI music tools launching later this year.
- The movies and entertainment market grew to an estimated $103.76 billion in 2024.
- Limonero Films acquired worldwide distribution rights to the environmental documentary “Blue Carbon”.
- JKBX, a music investment platform, reported that yields on over half of its available songs jumped in 2023.
- A bill introduced in Congress seeks to honor Seattle’s Museum of Pop Culture (MoPOP) “as a place of great importance” in the US.
Bearish News
- A group of songwriters sued PRS for Music over its handling of live performance royalties.
- SiriusXM was sued in a class action lawsuit for misleading and charging a 21.4% “US Music Royalty” fee on top of advertised subscription prices.
- Paramount’s co-CEOs cut $500 million in costs after a 61% decline in profits from 2018 to 2023, with more layoffs expected.
- ASCAP sued Columbus venue King of Clubs for copyright infringement, demanding up to $30,000 in damages.
- Paramount removed nearly all content from the websites of Comedy Central, CMT, Paramount Network, and TV Land.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
My 6th grade jazz band performance is on YouTube, and I’m willing to negotiate.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- The global gemstone market is projected to reach nearly $50.16 billion by 2032.
- Heraeus acquired Canada-based McCol Metals, expanding its leading competency in recycling precious metals like iridium.
- A-Mark Precious Metals increased its ownership to 55.4% in Silver Gold Bull Inc. for approximately $9.6 million.
- Silver is trading around its highest level since 2012, up about 21% year to date.
- Aclara Resources’ $130 million Penco project in Chile offers a potential “quick win for the West” that needs sustainably mined critical minerals from friendly jurisdictions.
- Platinum prices rose sharply, unaffected by the broader precious metals decline or the stronger dollar.
- A research team developed an optimal AI model to predict the yield strength of various metals, addressing cost and time limitations.
Bearish News
- A scam trend involved fraudsters posing as officials and convincing a Carlsbad victim to send over $1 million to a San Marcos precious metal business.
- Some experts predict a decline in the lab-grown diamond market, suggesting prices could fall as jewelers shift focus back to natural diamonds.
- Gold prices slipped to a two-week low, down 0.8% at $2,301.16 per ounce.
- Diamond Shruumz products were recalled nationwide due to toxic levels of muscimol, resulting in 23 hospitalizations.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Collectibles
Bullish News
- Elvis Presley’s blue suede shoes sold for over $150,000 at auction, nearly 50 years after his death.
- A Corpus Christi man’s 1,300-item Selena memorabilia collection could set a Guinness World Record.
- The Judy Garland Museum is raising money to buy back the stolen ruby slippers Garland wore in “The Wizard of Oz,” appraised at $3.5 million.
- Pokémon card grading requests to PSA surged to 43% of all cards graded in 2023, up from 17% in 2018.
- Goldin Auctions is holding a special auction featuring Willie Mays‘ rare collectible baseball items.
- The original illustration for Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone sold for a record $1.9 million at Sotheby’s auction.
- Elton John partnered with eBay for a “Rocket Man Resale” charity auction to benefit the Elton John AIDS Foundation, starting at a bid of $26.60.
Bearish News
- The FBI seized nearly 150 lots of collectible stamps from an auction house, believing they’d been purchased with $1.4 million derived from scams.
- Adidas continues offloading its remaining Yeezy stock at 50% off the original retail pricing.
- Eagles singer Don Henley filed a lawsuit seeking the return of his allegedly stolen handwritten “Hotel California” lyrics.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
If you’re a Kanye fan, now’s the time to tap in.
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- The US initiated the Lanham Act providing civil remedies, and the Trademark Counterfeiting Act criminalizing certain violations.
- The BBC saw the fastest growth among the top ten news websites in May, with visits up 9% to 1.1 billion.
- Dharmesh Shah, Co-Founder of HubSpot, launched a domain name appraisal agent on Agent.ai.
- HostPapa acquired the AI domain marketplace BrandPa to provide innovative solutions for businesses and entrepreneurs.
- Sedo reported strong domain sales, with ipl.com selling for $265,000 and FlexibleIT.com for $37,000.
- The Iowa Utilities Board approved the controversial Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, which would be the largest of its kind.
- Afternic is rolling out UX/UI improvements, including new filtering and bulk search capabilities for domain sellers.
Bearish News
- The TON ecosystem experienced a surge in phishing scams, putting millions at risk.
- A supply chain attack compromised 100,000 websites via the polyfill.io domain takeover.
- Researchers found over 572,000 phantom domains with hijackable hyperlinks on trusted websites.
- China’s Ministry of Public Security removed 8.36 million fraud-related domain names, intercepting $46 billion in fraud-related funds.
- The owners of Polyfill.io relaunched the JavaScript CDN service after it was shut down for delivering malicious code on tens of millions of websites.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Host Papa acquiring BrandPa is the acquisition of the century.
That’s all for this week
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC, ETH, and a couple Star Wars Action figures in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
