Game Trading Cards Insider: Issue #4

Welcome to Game Trading Cards Insider. We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems across the world of NFTs.

Adam’s done a deep dive into the Pokémon Charizard #4, 1st Edition Holo, PSA 10 that will IPO on Rally 26th March 2021.

Game Trading Cards Insider: Issue #4

What is the Pokémon Charizard #4, 1st Edition Holo, PSA 10??

The first English edition of the Pokemon Trading Card Game (TCG) was released in January, 1999 and is the most valuable of all the sets. There are 102 cards in the set and 16 of them are the rarer, more valuable Holos. Of those, the Charizard Holo is far and away the most coveted and valuable.

There have been 121 total Charizard 1st edition Holos graded PSA 10

It IPOs on Rally 26th March.

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Cultural Relevance

This is the holy grail of Pokemon TCG cards, the Pokemon parallel to the 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan card. It has consistently been the highest selling Pokemon card and has received the most fan and media attention.

It made headlines last October when the rapper Logic bought the card for a then-record $220,000 and has only gone on to sell for higher prices since then.

So why is it by far the most valuable despite similar scarcity to the other holos? Because of Charizard.

The evolved form of Charmeleon and final evolution of Charmander, Charizard is a fire breathing orange dragon who has long been one of the most popular and powerful characters in the Pokemon universe. On top of that, the card itself was considered the most powerful in the game and was highly coveted for that reason. Think of it as essentially the Jordan rookie — the first appearance of a very popular and powerful figure.

Charizard was on the cover of Pokemon Red, one of the two original Pokemon Game Boy games and has made countless appearances in the subsequent video games, TV shows, movies, and all Pokemon media. It ranked #4 in the 2020 poll of most popular Pokemon.

Points – 10/10

Inferred Value – $400k+

Since Logic purchased his card in October, the prices at auction have continued to grow. There was a sale at Ebay for $295,330 last November and for $350,100 in December. Rally purchased this specific card from Heritage for $300,000 in January (and not for nothing, but a $50K markup on the IPO is a little outrageous — I guess they felt they got a good price) and since then, two more sales have occurred. The first, in February, was at Ebay through PWCC and fetched a record-breaking $506,969 – but it was a Buy It Now not an auction so it doesn’t necessarily represent the market demand. The second was earlier this month at Goldin and sold for $399,750.

Most importantly, there is also a current Ebay auction running and the price sits at $311,000 as of this writing. Wherever that auction ends up is going to be a good approximation of the current value.

Points – 6/10

Asset Growth TTM

This graph omits the $500K+ sale and the current eBay auction but tells the story – the card has at least 5X+ in the past twelve months and 20X+ in the past 18 months.

Points – 10/10

Category Strength

The game trading cards category has returned 80% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.

Points – 10/10

Subcategory Strength

The Pokemon cards subcategory has returned 80% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.

Points – 8/10

Risk Profile

Standard deviation for all game trading cards transactions has been 150%, which is very high. Lower is better.

Points – 10/10

Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts

As mentioned above, there is a current Ebay auction running and the price sits at $xxx. It’s already above the Rally IPO price and there are a few days left.

Any time there is a new high sale there will be press coverage and an ensuing media bump. If people are only going to know about one Pokemon card, it’s going to be this one, and the value should continue to increase in the long run because of that reputation.

The downside to the record-setting is what we’ve seen with the ‘86 Fleer Jordan rookie — an oversaturation of the market, with multiple copies coming up for auction every month. The above is the 3rd Charizard PSA 10 that’s been auctioned in a month after only four sales in 2020. There are over a hundred copies floating around out there (plus all of the unopened boxes and ungraded ones) so there’s not a huge scarcity. This IPO is a good deal compared to the current value, but don’t expect it to 5x in the next year again. We might even see a short-term fall if the market gets saturated.

Points – 8/10

Asset Liquidity

This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade quarterly.

Points – 5/10

Platform Risk

Rally is mostly transparent

Points – 8/10


It’s the most valuable and desirable Pokemon card that exists. When there’s an asset with that kind of cachet, prices can get irrational.

Points – 10/10

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Adam Katz

Adam Katz

Adam is a lawyer and real estate investor with a finance background. His diverse job experience includes stints in a MLB front office, a major global law firm and the real estate investment fund he co-founded. He is bringing his well-honed research and valuation skills to the world of fractional investing. Born and raised in San Francisco, he currently lives in Brooklyn with his dog, a pit bull mix named Beaux.

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