Game Trading Cards Insider: Issue #5

Welcome to Game Trading Cards Insider. We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems across the world of NFTs.

This week Adam’s done a deep dive into the 2000 Pokemon Gym Heroes 1st Edition Booster Box that will IPO on Rally 30th March 2021 at noon EST.

Game Trading Cards Insider: Issue #5

What is the 2000 Pokemon Gym Heroes 1st Edition Booster Box?

This is a sealed, first edition Pokemon Gym Heroes 1st Edition Booster Box, originally released in August of 2000. It was the sixth expansion for the original Pokemon trading card game (TCG) and includes 36 packs of 11 cards each. Be aware, as with all Pokemon sets, there is a 1st edition set and an unlimited set with the former being considerably more valuable.

The complete set is 132 cards with 19 rarer holo variations. The most valuable cards in the set are the Blaine’s Moltres Holo (#1), which just sold for $7,000 at a PSA 10 grade and the Sabrina’s Gengar Holo (#14) which just sold for $8,500 at a PSA 10 grade.

Rally purchased this specific box for $14,999 on January 28th.

The Pokemon Gym Heroes 1st Edition Booster Box will IPO at Rally Road on Tuesday, March 30th at 12 PM EST for $18,000.

Add the IPO to your calendar

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Cultural Relevance

We’ve covered the popularity of Pokemon and the TCG but suffice to say, they both remain incredibly popular worldwide. The Gym Heroes set is not one of the more popular expansions, not making it onto any of the best-of lists I found online. Think of it more as a deep cut than a #1 hit.

The Gym Heroes set introduced the concept of an Owner’s Pokemon, a Pokemon aligned with a specific trainer. This set offered theme decks with trainer-specific packs for Brock Misty, Lt. Surge and Erika. The cards also feature Pokemon from other trainers as well.

Points – 5/10

Inferred Value – $13,850

As with the Team Rocket Booster Box, a lot of Gym Heroes sealed boxes have been sold in the past few months, with at least thirteen so far this calendar year.. The most recent sale was just this past Sunday the 28th for $13,850, well under the IPO price. As it was an auction it is a pretty good gauge of the current market value. The highest recent sale was on February 27th for $19,400, and the lowest recent sale was the very next day for $12,000. Averaging every sale in 2021 gets you to $14,312, pretty close to the last sale so I’ll stick with that as the current value.

Notably, every sale but the highest has been under the IPO price of $18,000.

Game Trading Cards Insider: Issue #5

Points – 2/10

Asset Growth TTM

The value has just about doubled in the past year, but has stayed mostly flat since January.

Points – 10/10

Category Strength

The game trading cards category has returned 80% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.

Points – 10/10

Subcategory Strength

The Pokemon cards subcategory has returned 80% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.

Points – 8/10

Risk Profile

Standard deviation for all game trading cards transactions has been 150%, which is very high. Lower is better.

Points – 1/10

Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts

There is a current auction at Heritage and there will likely be a lot more changing hands on EBay in the coming weeks and months. A complete set of varying PSAs (something you could theoretically pull from a box) just sold at Heritage for $7,800 so if that, or the two cards highlighted above see a pop in value, the sealed box will follow suit.

I suspect that the later the expansion the more sealed boxes there will be in circulation and if it rises in value, we will see more boxes resurface. It’s not a coincidence that after this expansion doubled in value, more boxes have flooded the market. This interplay of supply and demand will limit the potential growth of this and other later expansion packs going forward.

Points – 6/10

Asset Liquidity

This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade quarterly.

Points – 5/10

Platform Risk

Rally is mostly transparent

Points – 8/10

Intangibles

This is not a particularly popular or well-regarded expansion without a name-brand card to make the set stand out.

Points – 3/10


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Author

Adam Katz

Adam Katz

Adam is a lawyer and real estate investor with a finance background. His diverse job experience includes stints in a MLB front office, a major global law firm and the real estate investment fund he co-founded. He is bringing his well-honed research and valuation skills to the world of fractional investing. Born and raised in San Francisco, he currently lives in Brooklyn with his dog, a pit bull mix named Beaux.

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