Trading Update – Team Rocket Box & No Rarity Charizard

Welcome to the latest issue of Trading Updates / Game Trading Cards Insider.

In this issue, we will be covering two assets trading on Rally Road this week (from 9:30 AM – 4 PM EST):

  • 1996 Pokemon Japanese No Rarity Holo Charizard (PSA 9) – Tuesday, June 29th
  • Pokemon 2000 Team Rocket 1st Edition Booster Box – Wednesday, June 30th

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1996 Pokemon Japanese No Rarity Holo Charizard (PSA 9)

What is the Asset?

This is a 1996 Charizard Holo card from the Japanese base set – the first set of Pokemon cards ever issued. It is notable because there is no “rarity” stamp in the lower right-hand corner. It is a PSA 9, of which there are now 30 copies, with 6 graded higher. I have written about Charizard multiple times — this being the most comprehensive.

It was originally purchased by Rally for $57,877 in November 2020.

What is the current status of the Asset?

This originally IPO’d in December 2020 with 6500 shares at $10 each for a total valuation of $65,000. It fell in price in the last trading window on April 15th and currently priced at $8/share (market cap of $52,000). It will be open for trading from 9:30 AM – 4 PM EST on Tuesday, June 29th.

Inferred Valuation / Target Share Price

  • Target Share Price: $7/share (currently $8/share) – $45,000 inferred value

Valuation details:

The most recent sale of a PSA 9 was in May for $45,000, which actually did not show any real decline from the previous sale in February which went for $45,800. This is in contrast to most Pokemon cards over the past few months, but what few lower grade sales have occurred also show this particular card trading flat. That being said, it’s still overvalued at its last trading price.

Final Thoughts

Obviously, if you own shares and the price stays flat, $8/share would be an excellent exit point given that Pokemon cards continue to trend down as a whole. If the price drops precipitously, which is a possibility, it could end up being a buy, though I’m a little wary given the state of the market. At $5-6/share I’d stay on the sidelines, but if it really crashes to $3-4/share, it might get tempting given how well the value has held up relative to other Pokemon cards.

Pokemon 2000 Team Rocket 1st Edition Booster Box

What is the Asset?

This was the first asset I ever wrote up for the site back in March. From that write-up: “This is a sealed, first edition Team Rocket Booster Box originally released in April of 2000. It was the fifth expansion for the original Pokemon card game and includes 36 packs of 11 cards each. Team Rocket are the main antagonists in the Pokemon Universe and this was the first time that Dark Pokemon were ever featured in the game.”

It was originally purchased by Rally for $25,100.

What is the current status of the Asset?

This originally IPO’d on March 11th, 2021, with 4750 shares at $6 each for a total valuation of $28,500. It funded quickly, in around 30 minutes. It will be open for trading for the first time from 9:30 AM – 4 PM EST on Wednesday, June 30th.

Inferred Valuation / Target Share Price

  • Target Share Price: $2.87/share (currently $6/share) – $13,640 inferred value

Valuation details:

In my original write-up, I had the box valued at $21K at the time (well under the IPO price) and noted the downward trajectory. That has continued in the months since — looking at all ten sales from the last month (starting May 28th) – the high was $15,101, the low was $12,250 and the average has been $13,640. We’ll use that as the current value but the overall trend is still down – though there was a sale for $14,999 on Monday.

Final Thoughts

If you think the value of the boxes have found a floor, you could buy in at $2.5/share or lower, but I’d personally stay away from buying any shares in this asset unless it falls to something ludicrous like $1/share. These boxes were going for $6-8K a year ago and I could certainly see it falling to that level given the recent trajectory. If you own shares, get out while you still can. But this is the first trading window, so people are going to be desperate to unload. As always, check the clearing price just before 4 PM EST to see where it’s at.


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Author

Adam Katz

Adam Katz

Adam is a lawyer and real estate investor with a finance background. His diverse job experience includes stints in a MLB front office, a major global law firm and the real estate investment fund he co-founded. He is bringing his well-honed research and valuation skills to the world of fractional investing. Born and raised in San Francisco, he currently lives in Brooklyn with his dog, a pit bull mix named Beaux.

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