Jim Cramer is bullish on BTC

Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe

This is a quick-fire look at what’s driving your alts week.

What’s on deck today:

  • The Fed will probably/maybe hold rates steady in December.
  • What do Detroit and Saudi Arabia have in common?
  • Signs of weakness in the AI startup community may open the door to competition.
  • ESG is actually good for PE returns.
  • Jim Cramer is bullish on BTC

Macro View

Bullish News

  • Fed Chair Powell and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee both indicated rates ​won’t​ rise anytime soon.
  • More companies say it’s ​increasingly​ easy to find good employees.
  • US Oct construction spending rose +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

Bearish News

  • Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman ​said​ she expects another Fed rate hike.
  • Slightly more Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, but the overall number of people in the U.S. collecting benefits ​rose​ to its highest level in two years.
  • The US Nov ISM manufacturing index was ​unchanged​ at 46.7, weaker than expectations of an increase to 47.8 and the 13th consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity.

Forecasts

Get $25 to play around with invest on Kalshi using this link.

End of Year

S&P 500

4,593

​Nasdaq​

15,994

November Numbers

​November Unemployment​

3.86%

​November Annual Inflation​

3.37%

​November Non-Farm Payroll​

176,911

December and Beyond

​December Fed Rate Hike​

2% chance

​Q4 GDP Growth​

1.76%

The markets aren’t expecting any surprises in December.

What are we doing?

​ALTS 1​ Fund news:

We’re drawing up the paperwork for our art acquisition.

Real Estate

When you can’t even fraud right.

From an SEC press release ​detailing​ a $35 million fraud + stock manipulation scheme.

The SEC’s complaint also alleges that Larmore and Cole Capital Funds LLC, an entity Larmore formed and controlled, issued a press release in November 2023 falsely stating that Cole Capital intended to purchase 51 percent of all minority ownership shares in WeWork, Inc., an unrelated public company, at $9 a share, more than nine times WeWork’s then-current trading price.

According to the SEC’s complaint, WeWork’s stock rose close to 150 percent in after-hours trading shortly after the press release was issued. The complaint alleges that Larmore purchased more than 72,000 call options in WeWork at a price far below the stock price in the days before the press release was published, hoping to execute the trades at profit after manipulating the stock price.

However, due to a delay in the issuance of the press release, most of the options expired before Larmore could exercise them.

Whoopsie.

Bullish News

  • Amazon is ​eyeing​ up office space in Miami.
  • Investment funds like Manulife Investment Management and Nuveen have ​hoovered​ up more than a million acres of American farmland.
  • Most forecasts ​show​ lower home prices and lower mortgage rates in 2024.
  • The ​Saudi​ residential market is hot.
  • Airbnb is looking to ​fill​ homes left vacant by Japan’s declining population.
  • American home prices ​rose​ by 0.3% in September and now stand 3.9% above its year-ago level.
    • Metro Detroit home prices saw the ​largest​ increase, followed by San Diego and NYC. Vegas, Phoenix, and Portland slid the furthest.

Bearish News

  • ​Costar​: “With little to suggest a trend reversal or an inflection point, office building performance is expected to get worse before it gets better.”
  • Hong Kong’s property market is ​stagnating​.
  • Luxury multi-family real estate is ​facing​ an oversupply problem.
  • 54k people ​canceled​ home purchase contracts in October — more than 17%. Numbers were highest in Vegas, Florida, and Texas.
  • Of sales that went through, more than a third ​featured​ a concession.
  • The median price of both one-bedroom and two-bedroom rentals in the U.S. ​fell​ for a second month in a row in November.

How to invest in real estate right now:

Don’t

Startups

Bullish News

  • Fast-fashion retailer Shein has confidentially ​filed to go public in the U.S​. and is moving ahead with its long-awaited IPO.
  • VC deal value for the retail fintech sector ​rose​ 53.2% in Q3 compared with Q2.
  • Reddit is looking to ​IPO​ next year in the $15 billion range.
  • VCs are ​getting​ more equity in later rounds than they were a couple of years ago.
  • Drama at OpenAI is ​opening​ the door for competitors.
  • VCs are ​focussing​ on an old but new market – black farmers.

Bearish News

  • Prosus has ​written​ down the valuation of edtech giant Byju to below $3 billion, marking a steep drop from the $22 billion valuation the Indian startup hit just early last year.
  • Stability AI, the London-based startup behind Stable Diffusion, is ​looking​ for a buyer.

How to invest in startups right now:

Early stage

Private Equity and Private Credit

Bullish News

  • Research shows funds that make changes based on environmental or other ESG factors can ​increase​ PE IRRs.

Bearish News

  • When investing in private credit, the deal’s ​vintage​ can make a big difference in returns.

How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:

I feel a credit bubble

Crypto & NFTs

Here’s what you need to know:

Crypto is ripping.

Greediest reading in over two years.

NFTs managed to lose money last week while Eth shot up.

Bullish News

  • Executives in the cryptocurrency industry ​called​ the start of a new bull run with a growing number of voices calling for fresh all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2024 above $100,000.
  • The amount of circulating Bitcoin that is in profit hit a high of over 83% last week, the ​highest​ level since November 2021.
  • Former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao will have to ​stay​ in the U.S. ahead of his sentencing in February.
  • Standard Chartered ​expects​ the price of Bitcoin to surge to $100k by the end of 2024.
  • Bitcoin is now ​worth​ more than Berkshire Hathaway.

Bearish News

How to invest in Crypto & NFTs right now:

It’s still accumulation season.

That’s all for this week

Cheers,

Wyatt

Disclosures

  • This issue of Alts Cafe was brought to you by our friends at ​InvestorPlace​.
  • We hold BTC and ETH in our ​ALTS 1 Fund​.
  • There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.

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Author

Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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