Hello and welcome to Alts Cafe
New for 2024, this is your customized look at the alt-investing landscape.
Highlights from the full issue:
- Macro: Young Americans are doing quite well (if you squint)
- Real Estate: Multifamily rental rates are falling
- Startups: Startups are secretly filing for IPOs
- Private Credit: Blackstone targets French retail investors
- Crypto: DCG gets charged with fraud
- NFTs: Solana NFTs take a massive hit
- Art: Beatles art sells for almost $2 million
- Vintage Autos: Barrett-Jackson has a record year
- Coins: A Flying Eagle penny sold for $72,000
- Farmland: Walmart moves into regenerative agriculture
- Luxury: Used Rolexes had a bad year
- Wine and Spirits: Gen Z drinks less than millennials
- Film & Music: Sony invests in Michael Jackson’s catalog
- Precious Metals: Big moves from Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos
- Collectibles: A 1914 Joe Jackson card sold for $250,000
- Websites: GoDaddy partnered with ENS
Let’s go.
Table of Contents
Macro View
Bullish News
- Deutsche Bank upped its forecast from 0.3% to an expected 1.9% US economic growth in 2024.
- Investors boosted petroleum positions by 296 million barrels since mid-December.
- The US services sector grew in January, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 53.4.
- The S&P 500 hit 5,000, an all-time high.
- December’s inflation report was revised to only 0.2%.
- November 2023’s heavyweight truck sales reached 540,000 units, near pre-pandemic levels for this economic indicator.
- Americans under 40 saw their wealth increase by 80% since 2019, leading all age groups. [Ed note, this is mostly in housing, which hasn’t been repriced adequately]
- Several hedge funds have reversed bearish dollar bets.
Bearish News
- There’s only an 11% chance of a rate cut in March.
- Credit card and auto loan delinquencies hit their highest levels since the Great Recession.
- Fed Governor Adriana Kugler warned that strong consumer spending could hinder disinflation.
- Empty office buildings are causing major struggles for Regional banks.
- China’s stock market has lost $7 trillion since early 2021.
What are the odds?
Get $25 to play around with using this link.
What are we doing?
ALTS 1 Fund news:
No news
Real Estate
Bullish News
- CoStar planned a $1 billion marketing push for Homes.com, aiming to outdo Zillow with Super Bowl ads and celebrity endorsements.
- Zillow introduced a feature for renters to find individual rooms.
- Denver’s housing listings increased 14.7% year-over-year.
- Housing affordability improved in December.
- Houston’s ultra-luxury home sales jumped 75% in 2023, reaching a $78 million sales volume.
- Nashville’s housing market rose by 5% in January, the first increase in year-over-year sales since March 2022.
- Jacksonville’s industrial real estate leased 11.3 million square feet in 2023, an 18.4% increase from the previous year.
- South Carolina, Florida, Delaware, North Carolina, and Tennessee were the top five states by population growth from migration in 2023.
Bearish News
- Seattle slashed affordable housing funding by 64%, allocating only $53.3 million this year.
- Foreign investment in US commercial real estate dropped to 6%, a decline from the 10-11% average.
- Multifamily rental rates fell for the sixth month, down 0.3% to a median of $1,373.
- Legal battles may end traditional real estate commissions.
- Deutsche Pfandbriefbank reserved €215 million for bad loans, a 15-year high.
- Janet Yellen expressed concern about CRE creating financial stability risks.
- These risks extend far beyond the US.
- Extreme weather events may cause home insurance premiums to spike in Texas.
How to invest in real estate right now:
Use Zillow to find new roommates.
Startups
Bullish News
- AlphaSense secured $150 million ahead of a potential IPO.
- NinjaOne hit a $1.9 billion valuation and unicorn status after a Series C raise of $231.5 million.
- French startup Pennylane also achieved unicorn status.
- About 100 firms have secretly filed for IPOs.
- VC firms see a bright 2024 for fintech investments, expecting a deal rebound.
- Reddit’s revenue increased by 20% to $800 million in 2023, marking a profitable Q4.
Bearish News
- Cultivated meat funding dropped 78% in 2023, amid a 50% decrease in agrifoodtech investments.
- Investments in China’s AI startups fell 38% in 2023, with total funding down 70% from the previous year.
- Most VC firms made fewer than five investments in January.
- FTX is trying to sell its $1.4 billion stake in Anthropic to repay creditors after bankruptcy.
- Lyft and DoorDash’s valuations have tumbled.
- Lyft is down 75% from its peak and DoorDash is 45% below its 2021 high.
How to invest in startups right now:
Patiently wait for IPOs to heat back up.
Private Equity and Private Credit
Bullish News
- Brookfield Asset Management closed $10 billion for its Global Transition Fund.
- Carlyle Group Inc. announced a $1.4 billion stock buyback to boost dealmaker motivation.
- Blackstone and BNP Paribas introduced a private debt fund for French retail investors, targeting the €1.923 trillion life insurance market.
- Ares Management Corp. secured $1.7 billion for its inaugural Australia and New Zealand private credit fund.
Bearish News
- China’s PE and VC firms faced a slump in the first three quarters of 2023, with declines in fundraising, investment, and exits.
- In Japan, PE and VC deal value dropped 73% to $8.56 billion in 2023, a four-year low.
- Chinese PE firms have turned to Middle Eastern investors in response to declining interest from the US and Europe.
- Public pension funds saw reduced distributions from PE in 2023, with some experiencing negative cash flow.
- Julius Baer exited private debt following a $679 million loss.
- The Biden administration’s PE healthcare crackdown hints at a stricter regulatory future.
- DocuSign’s shares fell over 8% as Bain Capital and Hellman & Friedman halted acquisition talks due to valuation disputes.
How to invest in PE and Private Credit right now:
Raise money from the Middle East.
Crypto
Here’s what you need to know:
Bullish News
- Tether led Oobit’s $25 million Series A funding.
- Bybit maintained a robust reserve ratio of over 100% for 32 cryptocurrencies.
- BitGo purchased Brassica.
- Binance Coin (BNB) rebounded to over $300.
- In California, 27% of adults now own digital assets.
- Spot crypto trading volume hit its highest level since June 2022.
- Ether options open interest spiked, reflecting optimism for a potential spot ETH ETF approval by May.
Bearish News
- Stellar Lumen’s value fell below the 55 simple moving average.
- Polkadot and Avalanche experienced selloffs, with investors moving to Pandoshi (PAMBO) due to scalability concerns.
- The NY Attorney General charged DCG with fraud, demanding $3 billion.
- Bakkt’s stock dipped below $1, facing survival doubts after a “going concern” notice.
- Prometheum’s Ether custodial service might lead the SEC to consider Ethereum as a security.
How to invest in Crypto right now:
Learn more about Pandoshi.
NFTs
NFTs were up 38% in 2024.
Bullish News
- The Nobody collection on Ethereum hit $6.7 million in sales in 24 hours.
- Magic Eden launched an Ethereum marketplace to protect NFT royalties.
- John Lê sold over $2.2 million in NFTs on Exchange.art.
- A CryptoPunk secured a record $1 million loan via Gondi’s NFT lending protocol.
- CoinDesk’s reopened minting for their ’Microcosms’ NFT offering a three-year Consensus event pass.
- Access Protocol’s ACS token jumped 55% after introducing new cNFT use cases for content distribution.
- Japan Airlines and Hakuhodo will launch an NFT collection for unique experiences in Japan.
- Sotheby’s Metaverse added Kresus for better NFT security.
Bearish News
- Solana’s NFT market saw an 82.39% sales drop after a network outage.
- Polygon’s NFT market shrank by 35% in February.
- Bitcoin Ordinals’ sales fell 61% to $335 million in January from $868 million in December 2023.
- Fuvo.io faced accusations of phishing scams.
- Only 19% of PC gamers show interest in NFTs, despite a general interest in blockchain.
- Spain’s new tax laws allow for the seizure of cryptocurrencies and NFTs to cover government debts.
How to invest in NFTs right now:
It is still the wild-west… especially for non-ETH NFTs
Artwork
Bullish News
- Sotheby’s cut fees by 26% for most lots.
- A public database will digitally archive over 5,000 UK murals, including Banksy’s, by 2026.
- A Beatles’ artwork from 1966 sold for $1.7 million.
- BE OPEN Art named Jean D’amour Imanishimwe Artist of the Year 2023.
- The FrenchArtFund launched.
- The India Art Fair saw a 30% rise in VIP visitors.
- A stolen Van Gogh valued at $6.5 million, found in an Ikea bag, will be redisplayed post-restoration.
Bearish News
- Ronald Perelman’s insurers disputed his $410 million claim for allegedly damaged art, citing false testimony.
- A fatal fall prompted the Tate Modern to close for a day.
- MoMA recalled Yoshitomo Nara’s snow globes.
- Munich’s Lenbachhaus museum was criticized for renaming an August Macke painting.
- A $40 million art collection, including works by Picasso and Warhol, faced destruction threats in a campaign to free Julian Assange.
- Tove Langridge, of TW Fine Art, was charged with theft for failing to return consigned artworks.
- Ai Weiwei criticized hidden censorship in the West.
How to invest in Artwork right now:
Sift through your old Ikea bags.
Vintage Autos
Bullish News
- Tertre Rouge Assets aims for a 15-25% return on investments in classic cars and motorcycles.
- Barrett-Jackson’s Scottsdale Auction broke records with $207.6 million in sales, the highest in its history.
- Mecum Kissimmee and Arizona auctions reported respective sales of $224 million and $244 million.
- A 1967 Toyota 2000GT sold for a record $2.5 million.
- The 1904 Napier Samson L48, known for breaking the 100 mph barrier in America, is expected to draw attention at the Bonhams|Cars Amelia Island Auction.
- The 2004 Lincoln Mark X concept will be auctioned in Glendale, Arizona.
- Hyper-personalized luxury cars are becoming more popular within ultra-rich circles.
Bearish News
- A classic car dealer in Florida faced federal investigation for possible fraud, leaving nearly 100 creditors and over $4 million in debt.
- Interest in auto shows is decreasing as virtual tours gain popularity.
- Cars associated with Confederate symbolism have lost value.
How to invest in Vintage Autos right now:
Make sure your car doesn’t have an overly controversial history.
Rare Coins
Bullish News
- Hard Asset Management sold the only known 1907 $10 Indian Satin Finish Rolled Edge PCGS PR67.
- The finest known 1879 Coiled Hair Stella is up for auction at GreatCollections.
- A ‘Large Letters’ Flying Eagle penny fetched $72,000 at auction.
- The World Money Fair 2024 in Berlin attracted a record 13,500 visitors.
- A 2,000-year-old Celtic gold coin, one of just seven known, is expected to sell for up to £2,500.
Bearish News
- Organized crime has started targeting Canadian coin dealers more aggressively.
- Disinterest led to nearly 1.6 million Booker T. Washington half dollars being returned and melted.
- Die variety specialist Kevin Flynn is selling most of his collection, totaling nearly 580 lots.
- Veteran numismatic publisher Dennis Tucker is retiring from Whitman Publishing after 19 years.
- A burglary at Bellevue Rare Coins resulted in a $300,000 loss.
How to invest in Rare Coins right now:
Popularity is rising; possibly time to start selling.
Farmland
Bullish News
- A North Dakota farm sold for a record $17,500 per acre.
- Farmland values in Kansas’ Tenth District increased by 10% in 2023.
- Farm sector equity is set to increase by 4.7% to $3.74 trillion in 2024.
- The 2024 Farm Bill’s LASO Act will fund farmland purchases for underserved communities.
- Riverina farms are expected to fetch over $90 million for their 2800ha and water resources.
- General Mills and Walmart announced a massive project to convert 600,000 acres into regenerative agriculture by 2030.
Bearish News
- High interest rates are threatening the health of grain markets.
- The past two months have been very disappointing for US soybean exports.
- Net farm income is set to drop 25.5% to $116.1 billion in 2024, a $39.8 billion decline.
- Farm subsidy increases may exacerbate income disparities.
- The US recorded its lowest cattle inventory in 73 years.
How to invest in Farmland right now:
Start raising cattle
Luxury Goods
Bullish News
- Louis Vuitton announced plans for a Beverly Hills mega flagship.
- Bulgari and Fendi launched China-exclusive collections, targeting China’s affluent youth for the Chinese New Year.
- In 2023, Hermès set a sales record of €13.42 billion.
- Piaget is relaunching the Polo 79 watch to celebrate its 150th anniversary.
- LVMH is doubling down on watches.
- The luxury writing instruments and stationery market is expected to grow from $4.36 billion in 2023 to $5.9 billion by 2028.
- The luxury footwear market is projected to reach $40 billion by 2030, growing at a 4.7% CAGR.
Bearish News
- Farfetch, Matches and Net-a-Porter all suffered sustained declines throughout 2023.
- Only two used Rolex models gained value last year.
- Kering is going to pull its brands from Farfetch.
How to invest in Luxury Goods right now:
Start learning about luxury pens and paper
Wine and Spirits
Bullish News
- The Knight Frank Fine Wine Icons Index and the Rare Whisky Index rose by 149% and 586%, respectively, over the past decade.
- The Burgundy 2022 vintage boosted the fine wine market.
- The wine barrel market is forecasted to reach $6.4 billion by 2034.
- A Drizly survey indicated a potential beer resurgence in 2024, with 68% of respondents planning to buy beer, reversing a five-year sales decline.
- The Sparkling Wine Market is set to reach $43 billion by 2027.
Bearish News
- Constellation Brands reported a 21.80% decline in annual earnings over three years.
- American whiskey has lost shelf space at top bars.
- Gen Z’s alcohol consumption is 20% lower than millennials.
- A 16% tax increase is threatening the survival of many Australian distillers.
- New Mexico is considering a 650% alcohol tax hike.
How to invest in Wine and Spirits right now:
Develop a taste for Burgundy wines 🍷
There are three spots left on our investor trip to Tequila in February. Join us, won’t you?
Music and Film
Bullish News
- Over 600 indie labels backed Universal Music Group in its fight for fair artist compensation from TikTok.
- Mogul raised $1.9 million to help musicians track unclaimed royalties.
- Music Reports acquired Blokur.
- WME partnered with Vermillio’s AI to safeguard clients’ IP.
- Music-tech startup ‘Salt’ raised money from ABBA’s Björn Ulvaeus and Dave Stewart
- Sony Music bought half of Michael Jackson’s catalog for over $1.2 billion.
- Queen’s catalog, featuring “Bohemian Rhapsody,” is close to a $1.2 billion deal.
- Luminate acquired Quansic, the largest artist ID database.
Bearish News
- The DOJ escalated its antitrust probe against Live Nation.
- Warner Music Group cut 600 jobs.
- Fans of Taylor Swift’s Australian tour were scammed out of $260,000 on social media.
How to invest in Music and Film right now:
Pitch your startup to ABBA.
Metals and Gems
Bullish News
- Copper prices are projected to hit $9,500 per metric ton.
- Li-Metal completed a concept study for a 1,000-tonne lithium plant.
- The metal powder market is forecasted to reach $12.1 billion by 2031.
- Executives from The Silver Institute announced bullish 2024 predictions. [Ed note: a silver lobbying group is bullish on silver!]
- KoBold Metals is advancing its $2 billion Zambian copper mine project, backed by both Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos.
- Botswana resumed diamond auctions in January.
- Rare earth prices are set to rebound in the latter half of 2024.
Bearish News
- Analysts predict a 23% drop in base metal prices for 2024.
- In January, gold retracted to $2,053/oz, missing its usual seasonal peak.
- China’s refined nickel imports hit a decade-low in 2023.
- Palladium fell below platinum for the first time since 2018.
- Anglo American Platinum’s earnings decreased.
How to invest in Metals and Gems right now:
Buy a Zambian copper mine.
Collectibles
Bullish News
- A 1914 Joe Jackson card sold for $252,000.
- Collectors now seek vintage digital cameras, with the Fujifilm F31fd and Ricoh GR Digital being especially sought-after.
- 10,000 Brock Purdy sports cards were submitted to PSA in early 2024.
- Yu-Gi-Oh is celebrating 25 years by launching the Early Days Collection for Switch and PC.
- A PSA 5 M116 Sporting Life Honus Wagner card hit $17,000 in early bidding at Robert Edward Auctions’ February event.
- Todd Tobias has elevated collector interest in lacrosse trading cards.
- A mystery hockey card box, possibly filled with Wayne Gretzky rookie cards, has bids for over $2 million.
Bearish News
- Eddie O’s Sports Memorabilia & Collectibles went bankrupt due to internal disputes.
- Adidas is embroiled in a class-action lawsuit for failing to reveal the risks tied to Kanye West.
- Norman Rockwell plates have lost value.
How to invest in Collectibles right now:
Buy some lacrosse trading cards
Websites and Domains
Bullish News
- GoDaddy partnered with Ethereum Name Service to simplify domain-blockchain linking.
- A record 359.3 million domains were registered in Q3 2023.
- Ryan Ewen sold $300,000 in domains.
- CardPlus.com sold for $35,000 on Sedo.
- One 8 Media Holdings, LLC acquired DivorceLawyer.com.
- ICANN is improving universal acceptance for new gTLDs.
- Digital Domain Holdings’ stock surged 27% in the last 30 days.
Bearish News
- The London Police blocked 43 crypto phishing sites.
- Google’s AI chatbot rebranding to Gemini has rendered Bard domains worthless.
- A Beijing PR firm is behind over 100 sites pushing pro-China content worldwide, masquerading as local news.
- The Hairpin, an indie women’s blog, faced backlash for using AI content.
- Squarespace’s registrations continue to fall.
How to invest in Websites and Domains right now:
Sell your Bard domains. Buy Gemini domains.
Cheers,
Wyatt
Disclosures
- We hold BTC and ETH in our ALTS 1 Fund.
- There are a couple of affiliate links above. If you click them, we may get a couple of bucks.
