Pokémon Charizard #4, 1st Edition Holo, PSA 10

Welcome to Game Trading Cards Insider – FREE Version. We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems across the world of NFTs.

This week Adam’s done a deep dive into the Pokémon Charizard #4, 1st Edition Holo, PSA 10 that will IPO on Rally 26th March 2021.

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Pokémon Charizard #4, 1st Edition Holo, PSA 10

What is the Pokémon Charizard #4, 1st Edition Holo, PSA 10??

The first English edition of the Pokemon Trading Card Game (TCG) was released in January, 1999 and is the most valuable of all the sets. There are 102 cards in the set and 16 of them are the rarer, more valuable Holos. Of those, the Charizard Holo is far and away the most coveted and valuable.

There have been 121 total Charizard 1st edition Holos graded PSA 10

It IPOs on Rally 26th March.

Add the IPO to your calendar

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Cultural Relevance

This is the holy grail of Pokemon TCG cards, the Pokemon parallel to the 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan card. It has consistently been the highest selling Pokemon card and has received the most fan and media attention.

It made headlines last October when the rapper Logic bought the card for a then-record $220,000 and has only gone on to sell for higher prices since then.

So why is it by far the most valuable despite similar scarcity to the other holos? Because of Charizard.

The evolved form of Charmeleon and final evolution of Charmander, Charizard is a fire breathing orange dragon who has long been one of the most popular and powerful characters in the Pokemon universe. On top of that, the card itself was considered the most powerful in the game and was highly coveted for that reason. Think of it as essentially the Jordan rookie — the first appearance of a very popular and powerful figure.

Charizard was on the cover of Pokemon Red, one of the two original Pokemon Game Boy games and has made countless appearances in the subsequent video games, TV shows, movies, and all Pokemon media. It ranked #4 in the 2020 poll of most popular Pokemon.

Inferred Value – $300k +

[Detailed analysis for Insiders only]

Asset Growth TTM

[Insiders only]

Category Strength

The game trading cards category has returned 80% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.

Subcategory Strength

[Insiders only]

Risk Profile

[Insiders only]

Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts

As mentioned above, there is that current Ebay auction running and the price will [Insiders only]. Any time there is a new high sale there will be press coverage and an ensuing media bump. If people are only going to know about one Pokemon card, it’s going to be this one, and the value should continue to increase in the long run because of that reputation.

The downside to the record-setting is what we’ve seen with the ‘86 Fleer Jordan rookie — an oversaturation of the market, with multiple copies coming up for auction every month. The above is the 3rd Charizard PSA 10 that’s been auctioned in a month after only four sales in 2020. There are over a hundred copies floating around out there (plus all of the unopened boxes and ungraded ones) so there’s not a huge scarcity. This IPO is a good deal compared to the current value, but don’t expect it to 5x in the next year again. We might even see a short-term fall if the market gets saturated.

Asset Liquidity

This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade quarterly.

Platform Risk

[Insiders only]

Intangibles

It’s the most valuable and desirable Pokemon card that exists. When there’s an asset with that kind of cachet, prices can get irrational.


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Author

Adam Katz

Adam Katz

Adam is a lawyer and real estate investor with a finance background. His diverse job experience includes stints in a MLB front office, a major global law firm and the real estate investment fund he co-founded. He is bringing his well-honed research and valuation skills to the world of fractional investing. Born and raised in San Francisco, he currently lives in Brooklyn with his dog, a pit bull mix named Beaux.

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