Welcome to Sports Cards Insider. We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.
Today is a deep dive into three assets IPO’ing on Collectable (2) and Otis:
- Kobe Bryant 1996 Bowman’s Best Atomic Refractor BGS 9.5 – IPOs 22nd March on Otis
- Magic Johnson Julius Erving Larry Bird 1980 Topps PSA 8 x2 – IPOs 23rd March on Collectable
- Willie Mays 1960 Topps PSA 9 – IPOs 24th March on Collectable
What is the Kobe Bryant 1996 Bowman’s Best Atomic Refractor BGS 9.5?
This is a limited run refractor card for Kobe Bryant’s rookie season with the Lakers. There are 216 registered with BGS and 239 with PSA. Of those, 54 are 9.5, and 38 are either PSA 10 or BGS 10.
It features 3x 9.5 subgrades and 1x 9.0 subgrades, which places it at the lower end of the BGS 9.5 spectrum.
It IPOs on Otis 22nd March
Cultural Relevance
We went into quite a lot of detail about Kobe’s relevance a couple weeks ago when Rally IPO’ed the floor from his last NBA game. Check here if you’d like a refresher.
Points – 10/10
Inferred Value – $21k
I don’t know where Otis got the idea this card is worth $58k. They paid $55k for the card themselves, and I’m just not sure why they did that. I had to triple check the IPO price on this card.
The most recent sale of a BGS 9.5 was 8th Jan for $21k. This card never traded higher than that. Since then, his base rookie card has mostly traded flat.
Otis made a bad buy here.
Points 1/10
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 67% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Points 10/10
Subcategory Strength
The basketball card subcategory has returned 92% across the entire portfolio.
Points 7/10
Risk Profile
The basketball card subcategory has a standard deviation of 126% across all transactions. That’s very high. Lower is better.
Points 1/10
Recent Growth Trend
Overall Kobe Bryant cards are up around 800% over the last twelve months.
Points 10/10
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
No big catalysts here; certainly nothing to make me think it’s going to touch $58k anytime soon.
Points 6/10
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 30 day lockup period then will trade daily.
Points 10/10
Platform Risk
Otis is most transparent
Points 10/10
Intangibles
This Kobe Bryant NFT is awesome.
Points 10/10
What is the Topps Scoring leader PSA 8 x2 basket?
This is a basket of two PSA 8 graded rookie cards for Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. HOF’er Julius Erving also features.
There are nearly 9k of these cards registered with PSA of which 2,741 are graded PSA 8. There are 637 graded higher.
It IPOs on Collectable 23rd March.
Cultural Relevance
For our purposes, I’m going to focus on Bird and Johnson, since it’s their rookie card. If you’d like to read more about Dr J, you can do that here.
Larry Bird and Magic Johnson were the subjects of a fierce / friendly rivalry during the 80s. Anyone who was a kid then will remember the rivalry and all the television adverts for Converse.
HBO made a documentary about their rivalry in 2010 called Magic & Bird: A Courtship of Rivals. The film argues that their rivalry, and the media attention it got, potentially saved the NBA subsequent to its merger with the ABA.
The two, and their teams, were dominant in the early and mid 1980s.
- 1980: Bird wins rookie of the year; Magic wins the NBA championship and he gets Finals MVP
- 1981: Celtics win the championship
- 1982: Back to the Lakers
- 1984: Celtics
- 1985 & 1987: Lakers
Johnson retired from the NBA in 1991 subsequent to a positive HIV diagnosis. Bird retired in 1992 due to a back injury. Two careers cut sadly short, though both men played in the 1992 Barcelona olympics are part of the Dream Team.
You could go on about these guys for days; definitely watch the documentary if you’re interested in learning more.
Points – 10/10
Inferred Value – $18k
This card was priced when the card was on the ascent, but it’s been in steady decline since mid-February. The most recent trades have been around $9k for this card, so the pair of them are valued at $18k.
The owner is also retaining $6,600 equity in the card.
Inferred Value: $18k
Points 1/10
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 67% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Points 10/10
Subcategory Strength
The basketball card subcategory has returned 92% across the entire portfolio.
Points 7/10
Risk Profile
The basketball card subcategory has a standard deviation of 126% across all transactions. That’s very high. Lower is better.
Points 1/10
Recent Growth Trend
Despite the recent downturn, this card has appreciated 700% over the last twelve months.
Points 10/10
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
It’s got three blue chip players, but the card itself is only a PSA 8, which is not blue chip. Meh.
Points 6/10
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade daily (this is new for Collectable).
Points 10/10
Platform Risk
Collectable is moderately transparent and well-capitalised.
Points 7/10
Intangibles
Was Larry Bird the goofiest looking basketball player of all time?
Points 8/10
What is the Willie Mays 1960 Topps PSA 9?
This was the last year Topps cards were horizontal, shifting to portrait for the 1961 season, and highly-graded cards are rare. Of the 4.2k cards in the PSA population report, only 25 are PSA 9; there are three PSA 10.
The set also includes a Carl Yastrzemski’s and Willie McCovey’s rookie cards.
It IPOs on Collectable 24th March.
Cultural Relevance
Willie Mays is one of the top five baseball players of all time. You can learn more about him here (we covered him for the photo drop last week).
Points – 10/10
Inferred Value – $40k
This card was last sold at auction in mid-January for $21k. Because the lower grades have much higher populations, though, we can look to them for price movement over the last ten weeks. Between PSA 4 to PSA 8, the cards have appreciated by around 100% on average. We’ll round this card to $40k.
The seller is retaining $3,625 of equity, which is around 20%. That’s just below the maximum threshold for an asset to be considered independent.
Inferred value = $40k
Points 10/10
Category Strength
The sports cards category has returned 67% ROI so far across the entire portfolio.
Points 10/10
Subcategory Strength
The baseball card subcategory has returned 32% across the entire portfolio.
Points 5/10
Risk Profile
Standard deviation for all baseball card transactions has been 109%, which is very high. Lower is better.
Points 1/10
Recent Growth Trend
This card has appreciated around 600% in the last twelve months.
Points 10/10
Growth Outlook and Future Catalysts
We’re seeing a bit of a flight to quality at the minute, and some of the money fleeing modern NBA could flow into vintage baseball.
Points 6/10
Asset Liquidity
This will have a roughly 90 day lockup period then will trade daily (this is new for Collectable).
Points 10/10
Platform Risk
Collectable is moderately transparent and well-capitalised.
Points 7/10
Intangibles
I have two photos of the catch up in my office.
Points 7/10
Due Diligence Service
If you’re looking to make a big asset investment, we can help you perform due diligence. Stefan created and run Flippa’s Due Diligence program, and can offer the same service to you.
Facebook Group
Our Facebook Group is also now live. Request to join and we’ll let you right in.
