Sports Cards Insider – Nov 16, 2021

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We use Moneyball tactics to discover undervalued, mispriced, and hidden gems in Fractional Investing.

Sports cards have held steady over the last two months after a precipitous decline late spring. There are some underlying signs of weakness in the market, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the asset class take a bit of a tumble in the run up to Christmas. There are two auctions we’re tracking below; those will give us a good feel for the market.

All stats come from assets trading on secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

Last Week

Fractional secondary markets

Sports cards were slightly off overall but only one category was up – football cards. There were two sports cards in the weekly top ten but four in the weekly bottom ten. Look for continuing signs of weakness in the asset class. They don’t tend to move together, but it’s worth noting memorabilia was down across the board last week as well — all six categories (golf, wrestling, baseball, basketball, football, and boxing) were down.

All stats come from assets trading on the secondary markets at Otis, Collectable, and Rally

This Week

Assets dropping on marketplaces

Three IPOs this week across three different sports.

Hank Aaron 1961 to 1971 Topps Basket

  • Market Cap: $79k
  • Inferred Value: $79k
  • Date: 11//162021 on Collectable
  • Recommended Pass [This is a solid valuation, but I’m nervous about sports cards pushing lower, and these aren’t blue chip cards]

Serena William 2003 Netpro Auto Patch BGS 8

  • Market Cap: $85k
  • Inferred Value: $60k
  • Date: 11/18/2021 on Rally
  • Recommended Pass [Valuation]

1986 Fleer BGS 9.5 Basket – 2x Michael Jordan

  • Market Cap: $129,950
  • Inferred Value: $102,000
  • Date: 11/18/2021 on Collectable
  • Recommended Pass [The valuation looks good at first blush; however, the last sale of a BGS 9.5 was $65k, but that card’s subgrades were superior to the two in this basket. The last sale of a similarly-graded card was $51k late October 2021.]

Undervalued assets trading on marketplaces

Nothing unfortunately. Everything trading on Rally trading windows is overpriced.

At Auction

There’s at banger at Heritage Auctions this week with a number of blue chip cards ending Thursday. PWCC is also hosting a premier auction ending Sunday.

These auctions will go a long way toward telling us what the market is going to do.

We’re tracking some of the key lots (current price data accurate as of 16 Nov).

That’s it for this week.

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Author

Wyatt Cavalier

Wyatt Cavalier

With a background in finance & intelligence analysis, Wyatt has an unhealthy obsession with finding the best blue chip investment opportunities. His previous newsletter, Fractional, resonated deeply with subscribers, bringing actionable insights and unconventional trading strategies. His rare book collection specializes in banned editions. He currently lives in Spain with his beautiful wife, three young boys, and dog Monty.

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